ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture最新文献

{"title":"Business Models for Energy Suppliers Aggregating Flexible Distributed Assets and Policy Issues Raised","authors":"Jan Martin Specht, R. Madlener","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3236095","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3236095","url":null,"abstract":"The ongoing digitalization of the energy sector opens up opportunities for novel business models, which can help to overcome challenges that accompany the transition towards a sustainable energy supply. One necessity in a more decentralized energy system with high shares of renewables is the provision of flexibility. This paper uses the business model generation approach of Osterwalder and Pigneur (2010) to understand the challenges of the transition towards distributed power generation for energy suppliers. The insights gained indicate that the focus of business models in the electricity supply market has to switch to an offer-driven perspective. To this end, the business model of an “Energy Supplier 2.0” as a dedicated aggregator of flexible capacities on the household level is investigated. It is found that the aggregation of flexibilities can provide additional revenue streams, extra customer comfort, support for grid operators, and reduce society’s costs for the sustainable energy transition process. Despite these promising advantages, and even though early movers indicate economic interest, we find that the current regulation and policies bear obstacles for a broad diffusion of this type of business models in the energy sector. We identify several obstacles and suggest solutions how to overcome legislative hurdles where possible.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127711950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Growth Effects of Stabilisation Funds and Fiscal Rules in Oil‐Rich African Economies: Empirical Evidence and Development Policy Implications from a Nigerian Case Study","authors":"Sola Ibironke","doi":"10.1111/opec.12112","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12112","url":null,"abstract":"This paper empirically examines the growth effects of stabilisation funds and fiscal rules in oil‐rich African countries, using Nigeria as a case study. The analysis captures the ‘international standard’ of the two fiscal instruments by empirically comparing the effects of Nigerian instruments with those of non‐African oil‐exporting countries (i.e. Norway and Mexico). The results show that the fiscal instruments are effective in Nigeria and that the effectiveness is comparable to that of non‐African economies, implying that the Nigerian instruments meet ‘international standard’. The paper also discusses the development policy implications of the results, one of which is that the fiscal instruments can be used to control risky behaviours of economic agents in oil‐rich African economies. For example, since the instruments are effective in increasing growth (i.e. real GDP growth) and limiting its volatility, they can be employed to control increases in demand for and supply of risky sex caused by increases in real per capita income during oil booms.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130291158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dutch Municipalities are Becoming Greener: Some Political and Institutional Explanations","authors":"R. Gradus, E. Dijkgraaf","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3041292","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3041292","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes whether Dutch municipalities became greener between 1999 and 2014 by investigating whether they implement different unit-based pricing systems. Based on their incentive, systems are ranged from green ('weight' ) to less green ('volume' ), or not green ('flat rate' ). In one-third of the municipalities, shifts took place, with 83 percent becoming greener and 17 percent less green. Political fragmentation (measured in three ways) plays a key role in explaining these shifts. There is less evidence for political motivation. Particularly, Conservative Liberals are not in favor of unit-based pricing, whereas Social Liberals are in favor. In addition, municipalities in rural and shrinking areas are more in favor of unit-based pricing.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123348324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Electricity Demand in South Africa: Is it Asymmetric?","authors":"Rangan Gupta, R. Inglesi‐Lotz, J. W. Muteba Mwamba","doi":"10.1111/opec.12103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12103","url":null,"abstract":"The electricity demand in South Africa has experienced vast changes both from a policy point of view and due to the country's great industrialisation and urbanisation. The literature dealing with the South African electricity case, to date, has not taken into account these changes and their effect to the symmetric behaviour of the residential and industrial electricity consumers. Hence, this paper aims at examining the asymmetric behaviour of the annual South African electricity demand (total, residential and non‐residential) for the period 1960–2012. To do so, three different tests were used: the entropy test proposed by Racine and Maasoumi (2007. Journal of Econometrics 138, 2, 547; 2008. Econometric Reviews 28, 246), the conditional symmetry test proposed by Bai and Ng (2001. Journal of Econometrics 103, 225) and the Triples test proposed by Randles et al. (1980. Journal of the American Statistical Association 75, 168). The findings showed that there is weak evidence of asymmetry, given that the null hypothesis of symmetry can only be rejected at 10 per cent level of significance. Hence, econometric models examining the South African electricity demand during the same period are credible in their assumption of a linear data generating process.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130983673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"把热能直接转变成电能的热能电版的原理、设计、生产制作过程 (The Principle, Design, Manufacturing Production Process of Thermal Energy Directly into Electrical Energy Heat Energy Panels)","authors":"Y. Cao","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2961622","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2961622","url":null,"abstract":"Chinese Abstract: 在电磁波谱中，从0Hz电磁波（即光的量子传输中，光量子传输的电磁波频率；光的量子传输并不是幽灵传输，而是0Hz电磁波传输，由于其响应速度快于电子的响应速度，所以表面上显示其速度快于光速），到长波、短波、微波，即波长为3×108m-1mm；再到红外线： 1000um-0.76um，可见光： 760nm-380nm，再到紫外线、X射线、γ射线、紫移γ射线（正负电子相遇形成的γ射线光子为电磁波中最高频率电磁波，高于γ射线光子的电磁波为紫移γ射线，可以认为是γ射线与测量者之间产生“超光速”相对运动产生的γ射线紫移现象）。那么，从电磁波谱中可以看出：从长波、短波、微波都能把电磁波直接转变成电能，即由电磁波直接发电。从可见光： 760nm-380nm，再到紫外线、X射线、γ射线、紫移γ射线也都可以把电磁波直接转变成电能，即由电磁波直接发电，这就是太阳能电版。目前只有红外线波段：红外线 1000um-0.76um，还不能把电磁波直接转变成电能，即由电磁波直接发电。 \u0000再从热辐射定理可知，从绝对零度：-273.15k开始（在绝对零度时，也就是说，当T＝-273.15k时，任何物质不向外辐射任何热能光子即电磁波光子），即当T≥-273.15k时，热辐射电磁波的波长L≤1mm，也就是说，即使把任何物质温度降低到接近绝对零度时，其对外辐射的电磁波的波长也小于1mm，1mm是热射辐的电磁波光子的最长波长极限值。随着温度T越高，其热辐射光子电磁波的正态分布即麦克斯韦速度分布律波长越短。其热辐射光量子电磁波的能量也越大。所以，目前的热能电版在某一临界温度以上，即当t≥T(T为临界温度)时，热能电版就可以把环境温度中的热能源源不断地由热能电版转变成电能。 热能电版的主要规格：大小1×1㎝2为电池单元，由6层组成，厚5um，工作状态下，最大电流可达1A。 \u0000本文在是从这个原理出发，填补这一电磁波段的空白，即从原理、设计过程、全世界实验数据总结等等，发明热能电版。 \u0000热能电版有着广泛的前景：一是可以用于心脏启博器中的永久电源；二是可用于核电池，即核电站的发电己不需要，都可由热能电版来完成热能和电能的转换，而且其热能利用率大大提高。三是可以产生大量地非化石能源，对于减少全球碳排放做出巨大的贡献。 \u0000English Abstract: In the electromagnetic spectrum,In the quantum transmission of light, the frequency of the quantum wave of the photon is 0Hz; the quantum transmission of light is not the ghost transmission, but the 0Hz electromagnetic wave transmission, because its response speed is faster than the electronic response speed, So the surface looks like its speed faster than the speed of light), From 0Hz electromagnetic wave to long wave, short wave, microwave, is the wavelength of 3 × 108m-1mm; then to the infrared: 1000um-0.76um, visible light: 760nm-380nm, and then to ultraviolet, X-ray, γ-ray, The γ-ray photon formed by the positive and negative electrons is the highest frequency electromagnetic wave in the electromagnetic wave. The electromagnetic wave above the γ-ray photon is the purple-shifted γ-ray, which can be regarded as γ-ray generated by the relative movement between the γ-ray and the measured \"superluminal\" Purple shift phenomenon), So, from the electromagnetic spectrum can be seen: from the long wave, short wave, microwave can be directly into electromagnetic energy, that is, by the electromagnetic waves directly generate electricity. From the visible light: 760nm-380nm, and then to the ultraviolet, X-ray, γ-ray, purple shift γ-ray can also be directly into electromagnetic energy, that is, by the electromagnetic wave power generation, which is solar panels. At present, only the infrared band: infrared 1000um-0.76um, can not directly convert electromagnetic waves into electrical energy. \u0000That is, by the infrared electromagnetic wave energy can be directly converted into electrical energy. From the heat radiation theorem, we can start from the absolute zero: -273.15k (At absolute zero, that is, when T = -273.15k, any matter does not radiate any heat to the photon namely electromagnetic wave photon). That is, when T ≥ -273.15K, the wavelength of the radiated electromagnetic wave is L ≤ 1mm, that is, even if the temperature of any matter is reduced to near absolute zero, when the waveleng","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"77 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114277805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Faraway, So Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-Based Integrated Assessment Model","authors":"F. Lamperti, G. Dosi, M. Napoletano, A. Roventini, Alessandro Sapio","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2944328","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2944328","url":null,"abstract":"In this work we develop an agent-based model that offers an alternative to standard, computable general equilibrium integrated assessment models (IAMs). The Dystopian Schumpeter meeting Keynes (DSK) model is composed of heterogeneous firms belonging to capital-good, consumption-good and energy sectors. Production and energy generation lead to greenhouse gas emissions, which affect temperature dynamics. Climate damages are modelled at the individual level as stochastic shocks hitting workers' labour productivity, energy efficiency, capital stock and inventories of firms. In that, aggregate damages emerge from the aggregation of losses suffered by heterogeneous, interacting and boundedly rational agents. The model is run focusing on a business-as-usual carbon-intensive scenario consistent with a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. We find that the DSK model is able to account for a wide ensemble of micro- and macro-empirical regularities concerning both economic and climate dynamics. Simulation experiments show a substantial lack of isomorphism between the effects of micro- and macro-level shocks, as it is typical in complex system models. In particular, different types of shocks have heterogeneous impact on output growth, unemployment rate, and the likelihood of economic crises, pointing to the importance of the different economic channel affected by the shock. Overall, we report much larger climate damages than those projected by standard IAMs under comparable scenarios, suggesting possible shifts in the growth dynamics, from a self-sustained pattern to stagnation and high volatility, and the need of urgent policy interventions.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116519760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Distortionary Effect of Trading Activity in NYMEX Crude Oil Futures Market: Post Crisis","authors":"M. Naderian, Afshin Javan","doi":"10.1111/opec.12092","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12092","url":null,"abstract":"In light of the ongoing growth in hedge fund and investment bank exposure in the NYMEX WTI crude oil futures market since the global financial crisis, we have applied linear causality tests to identify if each individual trader group in the disaggregated commitment of trader's report have prior destabilising effect on market return (the rate of change in crude oil prices), price volatility and the futures‐spot spread in the period 2009–2015. Consistent with the CFTC's disaggregated classification system, the trader groups considered are physical participants, swap dealers and money managers. In order to capture the nonlinear causality relationship, the Diks and Panchenko (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2006, 30, 1647) non‐parametric causality approach has also been utilised. Test results demonstrate that changes in the net positions of physical participants has both linear and nonlinear positive causality on expected market return, as well as feedback loops. Change in swap dealers net position, however, only have linear bidirectional causality with market return and futures‐spot spread, with unidirectional Granger causality with price volatility. While money managers were not price trend followers, they have preceding influence on market risk and return dynamics. It can be concluded that swap dealers and money managers have distortionary effect on market return, price volatility and the futures‐spot spread. Instead, Physical participants distortionary effect is restricted to market return.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"203 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114923888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Natural Disaster Shocks and Macroeconomic Growth in Asia: Evidence for Typhoons and Droughts","authors":"Emmanuel Alano, Minsoo Lee","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2894778","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2894778","url":null,"abstract":"Climate-related natural disaster shocks are expected to rise as the earth is getting warmer, which will adversely affect growth prospects globally. Current robust estimates of the effects of typhoons and droughts point to both short- and long-term declines in national incomes compared to predisaster trends and economic effects likely to persist up to 2 decades. Using the typhoon landfalls and damage in Asia, we analyze the wind–damage relationship and find damages to gross domestic product increase by 2.3% for an increase in maximum wind speed. The extreme projected temperature rise in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 will result in higher damage by more than 50% in 2100. Vulnerable developing Asian economies could expect dampened growth with significant impacts on agriculture and tourism, a concern that may roll back years of development gains and exacerbate inequality. To cope with increasing disaster risks, both short-term adaptation strategies like relocation, government transfers, and other social safety nets, as well as long-term strategies like disaster insurance or similar ex ante mechanisms are needed.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130101858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Wind, Storage, Interconnection and the Cost of Electricity","authors":"Valeria Di Cosmo, L. M. Valeri","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2919282","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2919282","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We evaluate how increasing wind generation affects wholesale electricity prices, balancing payments and the cost of subsidies using the Irish Single Electricity Market (SEM) as a test system, with hourly data from 1 January 2008 to 28 August 2012. We model the spot market using a system of seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) where the regressions are the 24 hours of the day. Wind has a negative impact on the system marginal price, with every MWh increase in wind generation (equal to about 0.2% of the average wind generation in our sample) leading to a decrease of the system marginal price of €0.018 MWh, or about 0.3% of its average value. We use time series models to analyse the balancing market and show that wind generation increases balancing payments, as do the forecast errors of demand and wind. Every MWh of additional wind generation is associated with an increase in constraint payments of €3.2, or about 0.01%. Lack of storage increases the impact of wind on balancing payments whereas the lack of interconnection has no effect. Overall, wind decreases costs through its effect on the electricity price more than it increases constraint payments, even when storage is on outage. The effect of wind remains positive after including the cost of subsidies given to wind generation.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122104503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of Oil Price on Food Prices in Developing Oil Exporting Countries: A Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Analysis","authors":"D. Olayungbo, Wale Hassan","doi":"10.1111/opec.12090","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12090","url":null,"abstract":"This study focused on the relationship between oil and food prices in developing oil‐exporting countries. Annual data sets of 31 developing oil‐exporting countries were employed. The study covered a period of 13 years, spanning 2001–2013. Given the mixed stationarity processes of the variables of interest, we adopted a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289). The bound test cointegration showed a long‐run cointegration to exist between food prices and oil price in the sample countries. The long‐run result showed positive and significant effects of oil price on food prices while the short‐run effect was also positive but insignificant. We therefore conclude that oil price has a long‐run positive effect on food price and recommend that developing oil‐exporting countries should formulate long‐term agricultural policies to insulate their economies from any global food crisis that may result from oil price changes.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117058460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}