ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture最新文献_第4页

Governance, Vulnerability to Climate Change, and Green Growth: International Evidence 治理、气候变化脆弱性和绿色增长:国际证据

ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2016-11-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2894763

Ha Thai Le, Youngho Chang, Donghyun Park

引用次数: 5

Designing Nonlinear Price Schedules for Urban Water Utilities to Balance Revenue and Conservation Goals 设计城市供水系统的非线性价格表以平衡收益和节约目标

ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2016-08-01 DOI: 10.3386/W22503

F. Wolak

{"title":"Designing Nonlinear Price Schedules for Urban Water Utilities to Balance Revenue and Conservation Goals","authors":"F. Wolak","doi":"10.3386/W22503","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W22503","url":null,"abstract":"This paper formulates and estimates a household-level, billing-cycle water demand model under increasing block prices that accounts for the impact of monthly weather variation, the amount of vegetation on the household’s property, and customer-level heterogeneity in demand due to household demographics. The model utilizes US Census data on the distribution of household demographics in the utility’s service territory to recover the impact of these factors on water demand. An index of the amount of vegetation on the household’s property is obtained from NASA satellite data. The household-level demand models are used to compute the distribution of utility-level water demand and revenues for any possible price schedule. Knowledge of the structure of customer-level demand can be used by the utility to design nonlinear pricing plans that achieve competing revenue or water conservation goals, which is crucial for water utilities to manage increasingly uncertain water availability yet still remain financially viable. Knowledge of how these demands differ across customers based on observable household characteristics can allow the utility to reduce the utility-wide revenue or sales risk it faces for any pricing plan. Knowledge of how the structure of demand varies across customers can be used to design personalized (based on observable household demographic characteristics) increasing block price schedules to further reduce the risk the utility faces on a system-wide basis. For the utilities considered, knowledge of the customer-level demographics that predict demand differences across households reduces the uncertainty in the utility’s system-wide revenues from 70 to 96 percent. Further reductions in the uncertainty in the utility’s system-wide revenues in the, range of 5 to 15 percent, are possible by re-designing the utility’s nonlinear price schedules to minimize the revenue risk it faces given the distribution of household-level demand in its service territory.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132287814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 13

Estimating Path Dependence in Energy Transitions 估计能量跃迁中的路径依赖

ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2016-08-01 DOI: 10.3386/W22536

Kyle C. Meng

引用次数: 12

Does Land Lease Tenure Insecurity Cause Decreased Productivity and Investment in the Sugar Industry? Evidence from Fiji 土地租赁权不安全导致制糖业生产力和投资下降吗?来自斐济的证据

ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2016-07-01 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8489.12133

Reshmi Kumari, Y. Nakano

引用次数: 14

Oil Price Volatility and Fiscal Policies in Oil‐Exporting Countries 石油出口国的油价波动与财政政策

ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2016-06-01 DOI: 10.1111/opec.12074

I. Alley

引用次数: 13

Impacts of Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Inflation on the Economic Activity of Malaysia 石油价格、汇率和通货膨胀对马来西亚经济活动的影响

ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2016-06-01 DOI: 10.1111/opec.12073

Mohammed Mahmoud Mantai, Fardous Alom

引用次数: 3

A Space-Time Random Field Model for Electricity Forward Prices 电力远期价格的时空随机场模型

ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2016-05-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2783296

F. Benth, Florentina Paraschiv

{"title":"A Space-Time Random Field Model for Electricity Forward Prices","authors":"F. Benth, Florentina Paraschiv","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2783296","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2783296","url":null,"abstract":"Stochastic models for forward electricity prices are of great relevance nowadays, given the major structural changes in the market due to the increase of renewable energy in the production mix. In this study, we derive a spatio-temporal dynamical model based on the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) approach under the Musiela parametrization, which ensures an arbitrage-free model for electricity forward prices. The model is fitted to a unique data set of historical price forward curves. As a particular feature of the model, we disentangle the temporal from spatial (maturity) effects on the dynamics of forward prices, and shed light on the statistical properties of risk premia, of the noise volatility term structure and of the spatio-temporal noise correlation structures. We find that the short-term risk premia oscillates around zero, but becomes negative in the long run. We identify the Samuelson effect in the volatility term structure and volatility bumps, explained by market fundamentals. Furthermore we find evidence for coloured noise and correlated residuals, which we model by a Hilbert space-valued normal inverse Gaussian Levy process with a suitable covariance functional.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121236770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 19

How Do Land Markets Anticipate Regulatory Change? Evidence from Canadian Conservation Policy 土地市场如何预测监管变化?来自加拿大保护政策的证据

ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2016-05-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2783317

Branko Bošković, Linda Nøstbakken

引用次数: 14

Estimation of Climate Change Damage Functions for 140 Regions in the GTAP9 Database GTAP9数据库140个地区气候变化损害函数估算

ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2016-03-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2742053

R. Roson, M. Sartori

引用次数: 70

Blending Under Uncertainty: Option Value of Biofuels Mandates 不确定性下的混合:生物燃料授权的选择价值

ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2016-02-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2731729

Hamed Ghoddusi

{"title":"Blending Under Uncertainty: Option Value of Biofuels Mandates","authors":"Hamed Ghoddusi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2731729","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2731729","url":null,"abstract":"The value of a representative ethanol producer that benefits from both low and high gasoline prices is modeled. Ethanol producers make a modest competitive profit in the mandate-induced region of production. A low price of gasoline increases the demand for blend ethanol and consequently increases the profit of ethanol producers. On the other hand, when gasoline becomes costlier than ethanol, the capacity constraints of the biofuels sector bind and ethanol producers gain large quasi-monopoly margins. This is an interesting example of a market where two commodities are complement up to a point and then substitute after that. We postulate the value of an ethanol producer as a strangle option consisting of two real options: the option to substitute gasoline at times of expensive crude oil and the option to expand supply of blend at times of cheap gasoline. Using a dynamic model we show that the higher volatilities of crude oil and ethanol costs increase biofuels firms' value. We also find non-monotonic relationships between the value of an ethanol plant and several underlying variables, including gasoline price level. We estimate the value provided by a 10% blend mandate to be around $150,000,000 for a representative ethanol unit. Our results offer a novel view of oil and feedstock price risks in contrast to the common belief that considers those risks as a negative factor for the biofuels sector.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130926857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0