{"title":"Due Diligence","authors":"Brendan Daley, Thomas Geelen, Brett Green","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3702560","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3702560","url":null,"abstract":"Due diligence is common practice prior to the execution of corporate or real estate transactions. We propose a model of the due diligence process and analyze its effect on prices, payoffs, the likelihood of deal completion, and the distribution of completion times. In our model, if the seller accepts an offer, the acquirer has the right to gather information and chooses when to execute the transaction. Our main result is that the acquirer engages in ``too much\" due diligence relative to the social optimum. Nevertheless, allowing for due diligence can improve both total surplus and the seller's payoff compared to a setting with no due diligence. The optimal contract involves both a price contingent on execution and a non-contingent transfer, resembling features such as earnest money or break-up fees that are commonly observed in practice.","PeriodicalId":400873,"journal":{"name":"Microeconomics: Information","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126904690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Social Optimum, Heterogeneous Workers and Firms in the Labour Market with On-the-Job-Search","authors":"Erdenebulgan Damdinsuren","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3772844","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3772844","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a search model with heterogeneous workers, firms, and on-the-job search. Employed low-skilled workers are allowed to seek better paid jobs at high productivity firms. Low productivity firms make take-it-or-leave-it wage offers, whereas high-productivity firms use Nash bargaining over wages. There are two important sources of inefficiency in the model besides the well-known classical search externality. First, low-skilled workers do not have any bargaining power when they are employed at low productivity firms. Second, the two types of workers are pooled in the same submarket. We demonstrate that lump-sum transfers paid to workers can internalize these inefficiencies. Moreover, both types of firms may benefit from the increase in the supply of low-skilled workers when the productivity difference in the two jobs for these workers is large, as a result the overall wage gap among workers increase. On the contrary, when the productivity difference is small, the effects are reversed. Finally, both types of firms emerge in the equilibrium when firms are allowed to open vacancies in both submarkets. On the one hand, it is attractive for firms to open vacancies in the low productivity submarket since they pay low wages to workers. On the other hand, it is also profitable for firms to open vacancies in the high productivity submarket because the probability of jobs being filled with low-skilled workers increase significantly, even though the bargained wages of high-skilled workers increase.","PeriodicalId":400873,"journal":{"name":"Microeconomics: Information","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131225449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Learning and Firm Dynamics in a Stochastic Equilibrium","authors":"Can Tian","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3507822","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3507822","url":null,"abstract":"Imperfect information and individual firm learning affect the cross-sectional firm size distribution and matters for social welfare and aggregate fluctuations. This paper finds a tractable setup to study firm entry, exit, growth, and distribution with heterogeneity in firm beliefs and aggregate uncertainty. A firm learns about its unknown profitability (type) over time. Aggregate uncertainty affects firms' beliefs about individual types. Firm learning results in a Pareto right tail in cross-sectional firm belief distribution, thereby shaping the firm size distribution. When firm value and household welfare are misaligned, slow learning brings additional welfare loss relative to the constrained efficiency under imperfect information. With aggregate uncertainty, transitory shocks have persistent impacts due to the learning mechanism's hangover effect.","PeriodicalId":400873,"journal":{"name":"Microeconomics: Information","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116142401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Optimal Financial Contracting and Risk-Shifting","authors":"Dong-Geun Han","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2978645","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2978645","url":null,"abstract":"I study optimal financial contracting when neither cash flows nor the risk profile of project choices are verifiable. Using a contracting framework, I show the resulting two frictions (cash-diversion and asset-substitution) are intricately linked: to address the cash-diversion problem, an optimal contract resembles a debt contract, which in turn causes the asset-substitution problem. A key finding of this paper is that, due to the potential shift of control rights to the investor, the firm does not have an excessive risk-taking incentive; in fact, my model predicts that the firm may choose an excessively safe risk-profile. Also, my model highlights the role of the financial market structure (private vs. public debt): the asset substitution problem increases the cost of public debt, but lowers that of private debt. Strikingly, however, regardless of the market structure, the asset-substitution problem leads to a more efficient risk-profile choice.","PeriodicalId":400873,"journal":{"name":"Microeconomics: Information","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126147452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Group Search Strategy","authors":"X. Cao, Yuting Zhu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3437993","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3437993","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we consider the fixed-sample and sequential strategies in group search, and we break the conventional wisdom that the sequential search strategy always dominates the fixed-sample strategy. We model group search as a game among group members, and we show that the fixed-sample strategy is preferable to the sequential strategy when the unit search cost (relative to the dispersion of the product value distribution) is very low or high enough. The sequential strategy has the information advantage compared to the fixed-sample strategy because decision makers can make use of information gained during the search process. However, due to the divergence of preferences in group search, the information advantage of the sequential strategy is reduced, whereas the commitment advantage of the fixed-sample strategy emerges: when the unit search cost is large, the fixed-sample strategy commits to a smaller number to search to save search cost, whereas when the unit search cost is small, the fixed-sample strategy chooses a larger number to search than the sequential strategy because it allows group members to commit to a number to search and prevents over-search upfront. Further, we show that our result is robust to a change in the distribution assumption or in the size of the group.","PeriodicalId":400873,"journal":{"name":"Microeconomics: Information","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133472659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Felix Holzmeister, J. Huber, Michael Kirchler, F. Lindner, U. Weitzel, Stefan Zeisberger
{"title":"What Drives Risk Perception? A Global Survey with Financial Professionals and Lay People","authors":"Felix Holzmeister, J. Huber, Michael Kirchler, F. Lindner, U. Weitzel, Stefan Zeisberger","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3374893","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3374893","url":null,"abstract":"Risk is an integral part of many economic decisions and is vitally important in finance. Despite extensive research on decision making under risk, little is known about how risks are actually perceived by financial professionals, the key players in global financial markets. In a large-scale survey experiment with 2,213 finance professionals and 4,559 laypeople in nine countries representing ~50% of the world’s population and more than 60% of the world’s gross domestic product, we expose participants to return distributions with equal expected return, and we systematically vary the distributions’ next three higher moments. Of these, skewness is the only moment that systematically affects financial professionals’ perception of financial risk. Strikingly, variance does not influence risk perception, even though return volatility is the most common risk measure in finance in both academia and the industry. When testing other, compound risk measures, the probability to experience losses is the strongest predictor of what is perceived as being risky. Analyzing professionals’ propensity to invest, skewness and loss probability also have strong predictive power, while volatility and kurtosis have some additional effect. Our results are very similar for laypeople, and they are robust across and within countries with different cultural backgrounds, as well as for different job fields of professionals. This paper was accepted by Yuval Rottenstreich, decision analysis.","PeriodicalId":400873,"journal":{"name":"Microeconomics: Information","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130216760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Monetary Policy Rules in a Non-Rational World: A Macroeconomic Experiment","authors":"Felix Mauersberger","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3060341","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3060341","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper introduces a learning-to-forecast laboratory experiment based on a New-Keynesian macroeconomy that is particularly close to the model's microfoundations. In this setup, subjects forecast their individual optimal consumption and prices instead of aggregate outcomes. Due to different personal experiences, coordination of forecasting behavior does not occur naturally, and there is considerable randomness in subjects' responses. Thompson Sampling, a learning heuristic from operations research that links randomness to the Bayesian posterior uncertainty, describes subjects' individual forecasting data well, and explains the observed patterns in the experiments. The experimental results show that a particularly aggressive anti-inflation response by the central bank is needed to achieve coordination on rational expectations and macroeconomic stability.","PeriodicalId":400873,"journal":{"name":"Microeconomics: Information","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122978954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Market Risk Management in Agricultural Finance in Cameroon","authors":"Rose Liliane Amoa","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3312712","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3312712","url":null,"abstract":"In this book, we are dealing with the notion of risk management in the agricultural finance in Cameroon. The book starts by defining what the risk is, then the different types of risks, and finally the risk management process. At the center of the book, it is all about market risk and how to measure with the help of the method of Value-at Risk. The book also explains how to manage the market risk after we studied the financing by the African Development Bank to the Institute for Agricultural Research and Development in Cameroon (IRAD) and how the African Development Bank manage the market risk specially when it finances Institute for Agricultural Research and Development in the African continent.","PeriodicalId":400873,"journal":{"name":"Microeconomics: Information","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114342818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"What Drives Bitcoin Volatility?","authors":"Hans Bystrom, D. Krygier","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3223368","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3223368","url":null,"abstract":"We look at the link between the volatility in the Bitcoin market and the volatility in other related traditional markets, i.e. the gold, currency and stock market. We also try to answer if the volatility in the Bitcoin market can be explained by retail investor-driven internet search volumes or, perhaps, by the general level of risk in the financial system, as measured by two market-wide risk indicators. We use daily, weekly as well as monthly data covering the period 2011 to 2017. Correlations and regressions reveal a weak but positive contemporaneous link between changes in the Bitcoin volatility and changes in the volatility of the trade weighted USD currency index. A stronger positive link is found between Bitcoin volatility and search pressures on Bitcoin-related words on Google, particularly for the word “bitcoin”. To further assess what drives Bitcoin volatility we turn to a VAR-analysis and impulse response functions which point at Google searches for the word “bitcoin”, and to some extent the USD currency index volatility, being the only determinants of future Bitcoin volatility. We then use our findings to make improved predictions of Bitcoin volatility based on Google search activity. Interestingly, the significant link that we find between Google search volumes and market volatility points at retail investors, rather than large institutions, being the most important drivers of Bitcoin volatility. We believe that we contribute to the literature in several ways and that our results could be of significant practical importance if the Bitcoin market continues to grow at the current speed.","PeriodicalId":400873,"journal":{"name":"Microeconomics: Information","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115705321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Maria Letizia Guerra, Luciano Stefanini, Laerte Sorini
{"title":"Quantile and Expectile Smoothing based on L1-norm and L2-norm F-transforms","authors":"Maria Letizia Guerra, Luciano Stefanini, Laerte Sorini","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3298023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3298023","url":null,"abstract":"The fuzzy transform (F-transform), introduced by I. Perfilieva, is a powerful tool for the construction of fuzzy approximation models; it is based on generalized fuzzy partitions and it is obtained by minimizing a quadratic (L₂-norm) functional. In this paper we describe an analogous construction by minimizing an L₁-norm functional, so obtaining the L₁-norm F-transform, which is again a general approximation tool.<br><br>The L₁-norm and L₂-norm settings are then used to construct two types of fuzzy-valued of F-transforms, by defining expectile (L₂-norm) and quantile (L₁-norm) extensions of the transforms. This allows to model an observed time series in terms of fuzzy-valued functions, whose level-cuts can be interpreted in the setting of expectile and quantile regression. The proposed methodology is illustrated on some financial daily time series.","PeriodicalId":400873,"journal":{"name":"Microeconomics: Information","volume":"96 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134064597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}