World Economy and International Relations最新文献

{"title":"Foreign Banks in China: Start of a New Stage","authors":"Artem N. Vdovin","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-6-71-78","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-6-71-78","url":null,"abstract":"Received 16.10.2020. The article examines the most recent developments in the evolution of the foreign banks in China. Author provides a brief description of the stages of development of foreign banks in the PRC since the start of the Den Xiaopin’s Reform and Development policy till the present time. The change in assets of foreign banks for the last 15 years is analyzed in details. A comparison of assets of foreign banks with the assets of the China banking system is provided in a form of analytical graph. The author’s assessments of the foreign banking sector over the past ten years give grounds to conclude that there was a stagnation in the development of the foreign banks sector during this period. The recent steps of the Chinese authorities to liberalize the foreign banking sector are analyzed in detail. The author examines the Chinese leader’s systematic approach to the banking reforms and comes to the idea that it consists of three components: the change in the political vision and attitudes, the institution reform of the banking regulators and the reform of banking legislation. An assessment of the impact of liberalization on the development prospects of foreign capital banks is also given. Based on an analysis of the overall scale and impact of recent reforms in the foreign banking sector, the author concludes that a new stage in the development of foreign capital banks in China is likely to begin. The main problems and challenges that foreign banks in China will have to face at a new stage of development are also identified and described.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127698840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Problems and Dilemmas of the Next Start Treaty","authors":"A. Arbatov","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-6-5-20","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-6-5-20","url":null,"abstract":"Received 28.02.2021. In the end of January 2021, the New START Treaty was extended by five years by the United States and Russia. Thus, the two nuclear superpowers have time to work on the follow-on treaty not in a strategic vacuum, but relying on the valid treaty and its system of transparency and predictability. The promoters of abolishing negotiations on arms limitation and their substitution by amorphous multilateral discussions of “a general philosophy of strategic stability”, who have been highly active during recent years, have temporarily shied away, but probably not for long. The predictable difficulties of the forthcoming negotiations would be interpreted as the evidence of their impending doom, and this may turn into a self-fulfilling prophesy and once again deadlock the dialogue. During the previous decades, the development of the military technologies and new strategic concepts have changed strategic relationship of the parties. This was happening against the background of deteriorating political relations, a long pause of arms control negotiations and abrogation of a number of crucial disarmament treaties. Now the two sides have to catch up. Already it is possible to foresee the main differences of their positions. Washington is emphasizing deep reduction of the nuclear arms of the two superpowers – both strategic and tactical. Moscow has advanced a concept of “security equation”, which implies limitation of offensive and defensive arms – both nuclear and nonnuclear. There will be a great demand for strong political will and wisdom of the leaders of the two nations and of hard work and professionalism of civilian and military experts – in order to restore arms control, which has historically proved its effectiveness as a barrier in preventing nuclear war and as a stabilizer of turbulent world politics.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"2001 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125747589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Eurozone General Business Situation: Results of 20 Years","authors":"A. Sidorov","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-6-86-94","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-6-86-94","url":null,"abstract":"Received 03.11.2020. The article deals with the features of the dynamics of the Eurozone’s general business situation (GBS) for the 20 years of its existence. A comparative analysis of the integration bloc GBS within the framework of two full medium-term reproduction cycles (2002–2007 and 2008–2018) is carried out using different economic indicators: value added of different industries, industrial production, manufacturing production, real GDP, real GDP per capita, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) rate, returns on GFCF rate, employment. The recession of 2020 is considered preconditioned (regardless of the COVID-19 repercussions), as the duration of the business cycle since 2008 was approaching the maximum duration of the Juglar cycle (11 years) and signs of a downturn were appearing in 2018. The feature of the second medium-term cycle is outlined – mainly recovery rather than net economic growth, which justifies identification of the Eurozone development since 2008 as the lost decade. An attempt is made to identify long waves in the development of the Eurozone GBS, possible timeframes thereof are hypothesized using GDP per capita as well as labor productivity growth rates. Period of 1996–2011 is suggested as an ascending wave, period of 2012–2019 (and later) – as a descending wave. The conclusion is made on the relatively less favorable Eurozone GBS in the second decade of the XXI century within both the second medium-term cycle and the long wave. The problem (crisis) of competitiveness of the integration bloc as a main factor of such a dynamics is outlined. In this regard a modification of the medium-term reproduction cycle in the second decade of the XXI century is revealed on the basis of the Eurozone member states GBS analysis. The modification consists in a low representativeness of industrial (and manufacturing) production index as an indicator for identifying the phases of the medium-term cycle, and in extraordinary patterns of the industry (and its manufacturing part) dynamics, which result in completion of the medium term cycle without the index reaching its pre-crisis levels in a number of Eurozone countries. This new normality calls forth to reconsider to some extent such GBS theoretical categories as cycle boundaries and peak. In conclusion, forecasts are made regarding the end of the current descending long wave in the mid-2020s and possible GBS improvement within the medium-term cycle in this period subject to reasonable economic policy aimed at tackling the Eurozone competitiveness crisis.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129182096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Scienсе Diplomacy as a Tool for Achieving Foreign Policy Goals","authors":"M. Gutenev","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-6-119-127","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-6-119-127","url":null,"abstract":"Received 13.01.2021. The article discusses the main approaches to the phenomenon of science diplomacy. This paper aims to consider the possibilities of using science diplomacy not only as a tool to reduce tensions between countries, but also as a tool for foreign policy influence. Most modern Western researchers believe that the goals of science diplomacy are reduced exclusively to creating an apolitical atmosphere for solving important global problems. When we are considering science diplomacy from a realistic point of view, the concept can be outlined through national interest, pragmatic public administration, gaining influence and maintaining the balance of power. In the study, the author proves that one of the main goals of science diplomacy is to strengthen the influence of the state through the promotion of national science, as a result of which it will be easier for the interested subject of international relations to achieve its foreign policy goals. The tools of science diplomacy can be successfully used by the state to increase its international influence beyond territorial borders, open the way to gaining a greater international status, and legitimize its ambitions. The author believes that the currently existing definitions of science diplomacy do not fully disclose its content. In this regard, the paper attempts to give a new comprehensive definition of the term, taking into account aspects related to its foreign policy influence. Science diplomacy, according to the author, is a deliberate international activity of the state through controlled scientific organizations and foundations in order to strengthen interaction with other countries, provide them with information influence and promote its interests in the international arena. The article concludes that Russia should conceptualize the domestic model of “soft power” taking into account science diplomacy, as well as begin to take practical steps to research technologies of protection from a possible “soft” impact of science by other states. Acknowledgements. The article has been supported by a grant of the Russian Science Foundation. Project no. 19-78-00047.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128624367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Five Years Anniversary Since Renminbi was Included in the SDR Basket: Results and Prospects","authors":"A. Polivach","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-6-59-70","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-6-59-70","url":null,"abstract":"Received 29.01.2021. The renminbi was included in the SDR basket from October 2016. In that time there were a lot of doubts about whether the renminbi was enough freely used currency to comply with the criteria of such inclusion. Other opinions focused on possibility that this inclusion would boost international usage of the renminbi. The author analyses statistics and comes to conclusion that the maximum boost of the renminbi usage was achieved right before the inclusion. The China’s statistics shows the boost of renminbi usage in the external transactions in 2016–2020, but statistics of its trading partners and SWIFT reveal only moderate growth or even stagnation in this period. One of explanation of this discrepancy may be that despite Chinese banks’ substantially increased external lending in renminbi in recent years, it looks that banks actually do not transfer renminbi abroad to borrowers. Banks just remit these sums to Chinese suppliers under the instructions by foreign borrowers. Then those borrowers repay those renminbi loans most likely in dollars. So China’s statistics record boost of renminbi usage, but its trading partners do not see those renminbi. The key obstacle for widening international usage of renminbi is remaining restrictions (formal and informal) for transactions under the financial account of China’s balance of payments. The author considers prospects of increasing the international role of the renminbi and comes to conclusion that it is likely that China is afraid of liberalisation of its financial accounts because there is a risk of long-term depreciation of the renminbi. Contrary to widely popular belief that China stands for and practiced with undervalued exchange rate of the renminbi the author statistically shows that in the past 25 years the renminbi was stronger than the G7’s currencies and substantially stronger than the currencies of China’s neighbour competitors. It looks that devaluation-averse sentiments hinder China’s decision makers from introduction of real liberalisation of its financial account, because free transborder movements of capital may create sharp depreciating impact on the renminbi and thus undermine Chinese economic achievements of last decades. That’s why it is unlikely that the renminbi will substantially increase its international role in the foreseeable future.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124099697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the Reflexive Formation of the “Human Capital” of the International Department of the CPC Central Committee","authors":"N. Litvak, N. Pomozova","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-6-51-58","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-6-51-58","url":null,"abstract":"Received 03.07.2020. This article represents a stage in a comprehensive interdisciplinary study of foreign policy institutions and personalities of the People’s Republic of China since the late 1990s. to November 2019. During this period there was a rapid growth in the economic, technological and cultural development of the country, which both allowed and demanded a greater foreign policy activity of China, which until then was focused on internal, maximum, regional problems. At the same time, people and institutions, that shaped and implemented this new foreign policy also developed and changed. The periods between the congresses of the Chinese Communist Party with the corresponding renewal of political leadership and foreign policy priorities correlate with the prevalence of human resources with certain biographical criteria (place of birth, higher education and practical work) in the Foreign Ministry and the International Department of the CPC Central Committee, those who were born in the East of the country, studied and worked in Europe, and not in the United States and Russia, as one might suppose on the basis of the discourse, for many decades concentrated on the military confrontation between the main nuclear powers. This article examines the biographies of key employees of the CPC International department in connection with the formation of foreign policy in the context of the overall development of China. Based on the results of the study, it can be concluded, firstly, about the strengthening of the technocratic approach to foreign policy specialists, which takes into account, first of all, their expert qualities, even in such a party structure as the CPC Central Committee International department, instead of the ideological approach that dominated in the past. Secondly, personnel dynamics are influenced by the specifics of the work of the International Department, which is currently aimed at maximizing the implementation of opportunities for cooperation, primarily of an economic nature, in the Eurasian direction, while the Foreign Ministry has the main current task of confronting the United States and regional rivals. Third, the revealed correlation and long-term effects of such a personnel policy can also stimulate Russian activity in terms of training the next generations of foreign policy human resources on the Chinese direction.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122603296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"U.S.–China: Mechanisms and Dynamics of Arms Race","authors":"K. Bogdanov, M. Yevtodyeva","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-6-42-50","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-6-42-50","url":null,"abstract":"Received 23.12.2020. The U.S.–China confrontation, generating a military technology race, has been gradually developed over a long period of time after the end of the Cold War. The mission of countering U.S. forces in a possible armed conflict in the Southeast Asian region has led China to adopt a “counter-intervention strategy”, better known by the designation “anti-access/area denial” (A2/AD). The U.S. responded by development of sea-based missile defense systems, which has dangerously damaged the military balance. The study shows that both countries independently faced the need to accelerate one of the most destabilizing types of modern weapons – hypersonic weapons – during this race that required specific military-technical solutions. The course of this arms race has led the U.S. to development of the “AirSea Battle” concept and then other more radical operational concepts, such as “distributed lethality”, requiring a complete step-by-step restructuring of the Navy. A study of the behavior of both powers shows that, at the present stage, the “arms race” is increasingly becoming a more complex process of “technological race”, in which it is at times difficult to distinguish the components of the dynamics of the civilian and military sectors of the economy and of advanced researches and developments. The U.S. adoption of the ambitious “Third Offset Strategy” program occurred simultaneously with the deployment of Chinese research in similar directions, including the improvement of command, control and communications systems, development of lethal autonomous weapons systems and military applications of artificial intelligence. One of the main questions in this regard is to what extent the U.S. dispersed model of innovation management can compete with the Chinese centralized model of “military-civil fusion” marked by its high ability to concentrate resources and at the same time – linkages with global markets through the national champion companies. Acknowledgments. The article was prepared within the project “Post-crisis world order: challenges and technologies, competition and cooperation” supported by the grant from Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation program for research projects in priority areas of scientific and technological development (Agreement № 075-15-2020-783).","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"75 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127392391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Central Banks Digital Currencies: World Experience","authors":"D. Kochergin","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-5-68-77","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-5-68-77","url":null,"abstract":"Received 28.07.2020. \u0000 \u0000The article examines issues related to the introduction of central bank digital currencies (CBDC) for retail payments and wholesale settlements. The study defines and classifies central bank digital currencies, researches the main models of CBDC systems. The article also analyzes the features of various national projects for issuing Central bank digital currencies. The paper uses methods of economic-statistical and functional-structural analysis. The study concludes that CBDC are a new form of central bank money. Digital currencies can be issued in various issuing systems for the purpose of retail payments or wholesale settlements. Among the models of CBDC systems for retail payments (R-CBDC) the direct system model is the most attractive for its simplicity. This model eliminates the dependence of the Central bank on any financial and payment intermediaries. Models of synthetic and hybrid R-CBDC systems are characterized by reliability and speed in processing multiple transactions which makes them the most promising for implementation. Among the models of CBDC systems for wholesale payments (W-CBDC) the model of the system with a universal digital currency (U-W-CBDC) may be the most suitable for eliminating the main disadvantages of modern cross-border payment systems. However, a large number of technological and financial changes as well as the high operating costs of the U-W-CBDC can make such systems difficult to implement for non-developed financial market infrastructure countries. National financial regulators have different motivations for issuing digital currencies. The main advantages of digital currencies for retail payments may consist in providing users with highly liquid, low-risk, universally available means of payment. The main advantages of wholesale digital currencies are that they offer faster, safer, cheaper cross-border payments. The most advanced projects for issuing R-CBDC can be considered DCEP (People’s Bank of China) E-krona (Central Bank of Sweden). The most successful pilot projects for issuing W-CBDC are the projects Jasper (Central Bank of Canada) and Ubin (Monetary Authority of Singapore), which were able to achieve interoperability in conducting cross-border payments. Currently most CBDC are retail based on the use of distributed ledger technology and implemented in the form of DLT-tokens. Countries that develop digital currency systems can be divided into three groups. The first group is countries where the introduction of CBDC can be designed to support the national demand for central bank money (Sweden, Norway, Singapore, etc.). The second group – countries for which the adoption of digital currencies can afford to keep the place of national currencies in international settlements (USA and EU) or expanding the use of national currencies at the international level (China). The third group represents countries for which the introduction of digital currencies may be associated with the control","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"370 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122450528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"New Tendencies of Political Parties Transformation in the Era of Globalization and Digital Technologies on the Example of Europe","authors":"B. Guseletov","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-5-28-38","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-5-28-38","url":null,"abstract":"The article examines the processes of formation and institutionalization of pan-European parties (Europarties) as a new institution in the party-political system of the European Union. This institution emerged relatively recently in the mid‑1970s, on the eve of the first European elections in 1979. The main stages of institutionalization of European parties and their factions in the European Parliament are presented. The article shows the key differences between this type of a party and traditional political parties as well as the way relations between the European parties and national parties from the EU member states are developing. It analyzes the current state of these parties and the impact of the most important challenges that the European Union has faced in the last decade: the global financial and economic crisis, the migration crisis in Europe, Brexit, and the coronavirus pandemic. The article considers the legal basis for ensuring the functioning of these parties, which is contained in the Lisbon Treaty, and a number of other fundamental acts of the European Union regulating the activities of its political system. The results of the 2014 and 2019 pan-European parliamentary elections are analyzed; it is shown how positions of the leading European parties represented in the European Parliament have changed. The reasons for the change in the electoral results of these parties, including the growing popularity of Eurosceptic parties, are indicated. It is noted to which EU member states the most popular European parties belong, and what the reason for this distribution is. The article presents new trends in the development of the Institute of European parties associated with an active use of new communication technologies in party building, as well as the emergence of a new type of European parties that advocate the federalization of the European Union.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"65 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131272544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Social Protests in Latin America in the Focus of Regional Internet Media and Social Networks","authors":"E. Kosevich","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-5-107-116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-5-107-116","url":null,"abstract":"Анализируя информацию, публикуемую в региональных интернет-изданиях, а также самые популярные среди латиноамериканских пользователей социальных сетей хештеги, автор делает попытку рассмотреть основные темы общественного дискурса, касающиеся массовых уличных манифестаций, которые захватили Латинскую Америку осенью 2019 г. Цели настоящего исследования – определение основных причин общественного недовольства, а также выявление главных проблем, обсуждаемых латиноамериканцами. \u0000 \u0000Данная работа подготовлена при грантовой поддержке факультета мировой экономики и мировой политики НИУ ВШЭ в 2021 г.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117028349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}