World Economy and International Relations最新文献

{"title":"Polarization in the USA and Its Impact on Arms Supply to Ukraine","authors":"A. Rozhkov","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-10-50-61","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-10-50-61","url":null,"abstract":"Deliveries of American weapons to Ukraine lead to an aggravation of tension between Russia and the United States. The uncontrolled use of defense products by Ukrainians threatens not only with the curtailment of previous agreements, but also with a high risk of a collision between the world’s leading nuclear powers. The U.S. Congress could require increased accountability for the use of weapons through the use of arms export control laws (H.R.13680, Leahy Law, S.3394). Nevertheless, under the conditions of polarization, the parties of Republicans and Democrats cannot agree even on issues of strategic importance. As shown in the article, from the very beginning of the conflict in the South-East of Ukraine in 2014, both parties have been actively supporting the supply of lethal weapons to Kyiv. Politicians reacted negatively to any attempt to reduce military aid or slow down its export. For this reason, they repeatedly made mutual accusations, accusing their colleagues of unwillingness to provide military support to Ukraine. The most striking episode of the impact of polarization on the problem of arms exports was the scandal with the alleged pressure of the U.S. President D. Trump on the Ukrainian leader V. A. Zelenskii, when the head of the White House was suspected of trying to diminish the former Vice-President J. Biden. Despite the failed impeachment attempt by the Democrats, D. Trump was forced to resume the supply of lethal weapons to Kyiv. The influence of polarization continued later, when conservative Republicans in the House of Representatives and the Senate spoke out against arms sales. In the article, it is shown that despite the attempts of individual politicians, the United States is unlikely to be able to increase control over the supply of weapons, since such a step will be perceived critically by the opposite side.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135058912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Finland and Sweden Joining NATO: Consequences for Russia's National Security","authors":"A. Chekov, V. Vorotnikov, A. Chechevishnikov, U. Yakutova","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-10-19-29","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-10-19-29","url":null,"abstract":"The accession of Finland and, in the foreseeable future, Sweden to NATO shapes a new strategic and international political reality in the Scandinavian-Baltic region. The “Nordic balance” and the idea of this space as a “region of eternal peace” are irretrievably becoming the things of the past, posing a set of new challenges and threats to the Russian Federation. Russia has always taken into account the gradual withdrawal of Sweden and Finland from the policy of neutrality/non-alignment and their transformation into de facto associate members of NATO, although considered the threat of formal Alliance’s northern expansion as insignificant in the short and medium term. However, it is obvious that since February 2022, the arguments of doubling the length of Russia’s border with the alliance and the compelled military-technical response in this case have ceased to be considered in Sweden and Finland as significant in foreign policy and defense planning. The purpose of the article is to analyze the current security situation in the Scandinavian-Baltic region, scenarios for the accession of Finland and Sweden to the North Atlantic Alliance, and possible consequences for Russia. The methodological basis of the article is scenario analysis. The first and the most likely scenario assumes more active relations with the Alliance (increase in the number and scale of military exercises, strengthening of the eastern border of Finland, expansion of the Baltic Air Policing mission to Finland, etc.) without a significant increase in military deployment and infrastructure. Two other scenarios, which are possible with the further deterioration of the European security system, allow the deployment of nuclear weapons in the region as the last resort, although this seems extremely unlikely today. However, even in the case of accession in accordance with the first scenario, the Russian Federation might face a whole range of threats and challenges, including, but not limited to, the deployment of missile defense infrastructure and nuclear-capable weapon systems, an improvement of the conditions for strengthening the NATO’s military activities in the Arctic, the possibility of transferring a large amount of Sovietdesigned military equipment to Ukraine by Finland, etc.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"69 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135058663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Role of the Economic Development Interests of Bhutan and Nepal in Determining Their Foreign Policy Strategies","authors":"E. Shirgazina","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-9-99-108","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-9-99-108","url":null,"abstract":"The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the economic situation in two small countries of South Asia – Bhutan and Nepal. The author has studied the agricultural sector, industrial, tourist, hydroelectric industries of their national economies, the range of goods produced by Bhutan and Nepal, as well as the circle of their main trade and economic partners. The role of income from labor migration for improving the well-being of the population of both states is considered separately. The author analyzes Bhutan’s and Nepal’s indicators of socio-economic development according to the UN classification. Based on the work carried out, the author comes to the conclusion that for both countries their economic and social interests play the key role in determining their foreign policy strategy. As landlocked countries with a complex and ambiguous history, their relations with two neighbors, India and China, are their priority. Taking into account the Indo-Chinese competitive interaction, it becomes obvious that the Governments of both Bhutan and Nepal are trying to find a balance between the two rival countries and their own national interests. However, they choose different balancing scenarios. Nepal is characterized by a clearly represented course towards the sovereignization of the country and its foreign policy with the creation of positive neutrality in relations with both neighbor states. The leadership of Bhutan, from the other side, traditionally chooses a pro-Indian course with cautious steps towards resolving contradictions in relations with China.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"174 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135360909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"“Coercive Diplomacy” as an Instrument of EU Influence on the Peace Process: Transdniestrian Casus","authors":"N. Shevchuk","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-10-120-131","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-10-120-131","url":null,"abstract":"“Coercive diplomacy” is often described as a protective and non-offensive political and diplomatic tool, an alternative to military action based on the threat of force instead of its use. The article shows how “coercive diplomacy” has evolved nowadays, when it is applied in the form of sanctions and special economic regimes both as an incentive to action and as a requirement to change policies. The emphasis is placed on the role of trade policy in the context of settlement of a protracted conflict. The experience of using trade and economic instruments by the European Union within the framework of the “carrot and stick” strategy is analyzed on the example of stimulating the reorientation of Transdniestrian producers from the Russian to the European market and then involving this unrecognized de facto state in the regime of the deep comprehensive free trade area (DCFTA) of the EU in order to influence the peace process and the reintegration of the Republic of Moldova. The author concludes that trade instruments allow the EU not only to keep the Transdniestrian elites in its zone of influence, but also to balance Russian presence in this region. The article has been prepared on the basis of an extensive number of sources, including statements of participants in the processes described in the article, as well as the recorded results of the author’s working meetings, for a number of years directly involved in the negotiation process on the Transdniestrian settlement in the “5+2” format and negotiations with the leadership of the EU Trade Department on the implementation of certain aspects of the DCFTA regime in Transdniestria.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"10 45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135058917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"International Mechanisms to Compensate for Climate Loss and Damage: Innovations","authors":"E. Nikitina, N. Pozhilova","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-10-62-70","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-10-62-70","url":null,"abstract":"Recent trends in climate international regime formation include the development and diversification of multilateral mechanisms to prevent and reduce actual and future risks and damages from impacts of global climate change, including in the most vulnerable countries and regions of the planet. At the moment, the most urgent need is not just to implement any interstate cooperation within the existing regimes (which also has its shortcomings), but also to provide real funding for projects to compensate for losses and damages. At the end of 2022, an important phase of multilateral climate dialogue over the past three decades between the countries of the global North and the global South on institutionalizing their collaboration on financial and technological assistance to reduce climate societal vulnerability resulted in the decision to create a special global fund to cover loss and damage from climate-related natural disasters and promote sustainable development. The authors have identified and analyzed the main issues to be covered during the process of creation of the new international instrument. The forthcoming development of its design, participants’ commitments, funding sources, norms and procedures that meet the top priorities will be based on the experience and best practices of existing regional funds, among other things. The combination of global and regional regulation is shown to be an effective instrument of the current international climate regime. New trends and diversification of mechanisms of international climate regulation are considered as an important element in the process of its further development, implementation and effectiveness in the long term.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135058933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mongolia: Foreign Trade and Infrastructure Development","authors":"A. Makarov, E. Makarova, A. Beshentsev","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-9-68-78","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-9-68-78","url":null,"abstract":"The paper reveals the modern specifics of the economy and plans for the development of infrastructure in Mongolia. The influence of anti-COVID restrictions on foreign trade is being studied. It is shown that the problems of export and raw material development and inland Mongolian isolation in the face of restrictions on crossing the border with China for vehicles were exacerbated by the poor development of the railway network. As a result of these restrictions, coal production and exports from Mongolia to China more than halved in 2020–2021. Together with the fall in coal prices in 2020 and the collapse in the services sector, this led to the deepest recession in the Mongolian economy since 1992. Plans for the development of international transport and energy corridors through Mongolia are being considered. Based on actual data, the insignificant role of Mongolia in the dynamically growing transit of container cargo in the direction of China–Europe–China is shown. The unsatisfactory condition of the Trans-Mongolian Railway and the absence of railways in a number of promising directions of freight flows prevent the full realization of the transit potential of Mongolian freight traffic. In connection with Russia’s reorientation of export flows to Asia, the Eastern Railway Corridor stands out as a promising corridor through Mongolia. A strategically significant initiative, which in the context of anti-Russian sanctions will seriously strengthen economic cooperation in the regional triangle Russia-Mongolia-China, is the plan to build a Soyuz-Vostok transit gas pipeline through Mongolia. This project will allow redirecting gas supplies from the West Siberian region of Russia, previously supplied to Europe, directly to the capital region of China. Mongolia is also interested in the implementation of this large-scale project, which seeks to obtain new opportunities for economic development. The implementation of these infrastructure development plans will allow Mongolia to not only take advantage of its location between Russia and China and strengthen the economic base for cooperation with them, but also, in general, lay the foundation for economic diversification and deeper integration into the global economic system.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135361161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Resonant Qatar: The Phenomenon of a Small Monarchy’s Foreign Political Identity","authors":"T. Tyukaeva","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-10-94-107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-10-94-107","url":null,"abstract":"Foreign policy of Qatar, a dwarf emirate with considerable geographic and demographic limitations, demands special attention. Not only has this small Gulf monarchy succeeded in overcoming its smallness, but also managed to establish itself as an influential actor, both regionally and internationally, in the shortest possible time, breaking and revolutionizing conventional perceptions of capabilities and opportunities of small states in world politics. The paper aims to explore various characteristics of Qatar’s foreign policy, its main principals and goals, instruments and paths of their implementation, as well as its achievements. The author also intends to determine the essence of Qatari foreign political identity and its components, arguing that it was the key to the small Gulf emirate’s global success. Through formulation and assertion of its exceptionalism, skilled promotion of its image as a modern and progressive state, useful military and political partner, reliable supplier of fuel, sought-after international mediator and donor of humanitarian assistance, powerful investor, a transport, cultural, educational, financial hub and a tourist destination in combination with efficient balancing strategy, Doha was able to carve a distinguished niche for itself and cement its position as an important global actor. Despite of a number of setbacks in foreign policy tactics and reputational losses that followed, regardless of speculations about the unrepairable damage to all the previous achievements, the young emir has proven his commitment to the resonant foreign political identity his predecessor had shaped. Its core elements include demonstrative independence and self-sufficiency, exceptionalism distinguishing the emirate form other Gulf monarchies, refusal to accept the bounds of conventional perceptions of “friends” and “foes”, combination of traditions and modernity, as well as vision and proactivity.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"83 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135058622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reshoring or Offshoring: How Global Production Is Changing in Global Value Chains","authors":"Y. Simachev, A. Fedyunina, M. Yurevich","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-10-71-81","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-10-71-81","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, a debate on the relationship between reshoring, nearshoring, and offshore outsourcing of operational processes in multinational companies (MNCs) has emerged. However, the evidence provided is often fragmented and rarely considers more than one domestic economy of an MNC. The aim of this article is to discuss the prevalence of reshoring and offshoring in the global economy and the influence of government policies on these processes. Through the analysis of territorial mobility of subsidiaries of major MNCs using the ADIMA OECD database, it was revealed that MNCs restructure their foreign subsidiary networks differently. From the research results, we also see that European MNCs were more likely to be characterized by business compression (40%), while 48% of Asian MNCs saw global expansion and a further 13% were actively involved in offshoring operational phases of their operations. Particularly notable is the relocation of MNC subsidiaries to Europe, resulting from both reshoring initiatives by European companies and the expansion of subsidiary networks by Asian MNCs. We demonstrate that reshoring stimulation policies are only beginning to emerge; however, they likely have existed for some time, intertwined with policies aimed at stimulating and localizing domestic production. We discuss the challenges and opportunities that arise for developing (catching-up) countries in the context of growing territorial mobility of MNC subsidiaries and highlight the feasibility of shifting government policies towards managing the country’s integration into global value chains (GVCs), including the establishment of GVC elements within the national economy.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"135 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135058927","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Transformation of World Oil Market: Drivers and Prospects","authors":"S. Zhukov, I. Kopytin, A. Maslennikov, O. Reznikova, M. Sinitsyn","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-10-5-18","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-10-5-18","url":null,"abstract":"The world oil market is in the process of profound transformation. Under the influence of both long-term trends and recent exogenous shocks in the form of the global coronavirus pandemic and the geopolitical crisis around Ukraine, global oil demand, world oil production and trade in crude oil and petroleum products are being transformed in real time. The main driver of the restructuring of the oil market is the approaching risk of peak of global oil demand. On the supply side strengthening the position of the United States in world oil production, which is the result of technological breakthroughs in the methods of tight oil extraction is observed. The short-term elasticity of oil supply has increased markedly. Sluggish dynamics of global demand for oil against the backdrop of an expanding opportunity for a rapid increase in oil production have significantly reduced the risk of a shortage of oil supply, at least in the medium term. This forces the OPEC countries, which are in dire need of maximizing oil export revenues in order to maintain acceptable economic growth rates, to restrain oil production at the expense of their market niche. Western sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector provoked a reorientation of Russian oil exports to the markets of friendly and nonaligned countries, primarily to India and China, as well as Turkey. In Europe, the former niches of Russian oil are taken by the United States and OPEC countries. To avoid the risks of falling under secondary sanctions, importers of Russian oil buy it with a price discount. In fact, world oil trade has taken a dual structure: the vast majority of oil is traded using market price quotations, while at the same time, a segment of trade in relatively cheap oil has emerged. Until 2022, this segment was formed by Iranian and Venezuelan oil, but it was much more modest in terms of absolute volume. The parallel existence of two segments in the world oil trade led to sharpening of competition between oil exporters. A return to normality could be a new shock for the oil market.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135057244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic Cooperation between India and Israel","authors":"N. Galistcheva, N. Khromova","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-10-82-93","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-10-82-93","url":null,"abstract":"The article deals with the India–Israel economic relations within 1990–2020s. The authors stress that the Israeli direction is among the priorities in the external economic policy of India at the present time. The authors examine the importance of mutual trade stressing that it is well balanced and its volume has increased more than twice since 1992. A number of indices are calculated to conclude that the mutual trade is characterized by its high intensity. Intra-industry trade is also relatively high as there is high complementarity of India and Israel economy and the trade balance is usually positive for India. As a whole both India and Israel are interested in one another’s market. Countries have been conducting negotiations on creating a free trade zone but due to many obstacles from both parts the agreement is not yet reached. The authors underline that India–Israel investment cooperation has been rather well developing for the latest decade. Israeli investors are more active on Indian market and the average volume of their investments is usually about twice higher than the Indian direct investments to Israeli economy. Nowadays there are more than 300 companies with the participation of Israeli capital registered in India operating mainly in the sphere of medicine, telecommunications, chemical industry, energy, including the use of unconventional energy sources, as well as agriculture. Investments are very diverse in nature: among them there are the organization of manufacturing enterprises, the opening of research centers, the creation of subsidiaries etc. Scientific and technical cooperation is another important direction of India–Israel ties. Thanks to scientific and technical cooperation with Israel, the rapidly developing Indian economy is successfully compensating for the lack of advanced technologies that it needs. In addition to bilateral interaction, the countries also cooperate with each other through the I2U2 Dialogue and two large-scale projects in the field of food security and clean energy are being implemented in India at the present time. At the end of the article the authors underline that there is every reason to sure that economic relations between India and Israel will reach a fundamentally new level in the near future, which will contribute to the further development and modernization of the Indian economy.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135058926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}