“Coercive Diplomacy” as an Instrument of EU Influence on the Peace Process: Transdniestrian Casus

Abstract

“Coercive diplomacy” is often described as a protective and non-offensive political and diplomatic tool, an alternative to military action based on the threat of force instead of its use. The article shows how “coercive diplomacy” has evolved nowadays, when it is applied in the form of sanctions and special economic regimes both as an incentive to action and as a requirement to change policies. The emphasis is placed on the role of trade policy in the context of settlement of a protracted conflict. The experience of using trade and economic instruments by the European Union within the framework of the “carrot and stick” strategy is analyzed on the example of stimulating the reorientation of Transdniestrian producers from the Russian to the European market and then involving this unrecognized de facto state in the regime of the deep comprehensive free trade area (DCFTA) of the EU in order to influence the peace process and the reintegration of the Republic of Moldova. The author concludes that trade instruments allow the EU not only to keep the Transdniestrian elites in its zone of influence, but also to balance Russian presence in this region. The article has been prepared on the basis of an extensive number of sources, including statements of participants in the processes described in the article, as well as the recorded results of the author’s working meetings, for a number of years directly involved in the negotiation process on the Transdniestrian settlement in the “5+2” format and negotiations with the leadership of the EU Trade Department on the implementation of certain aspects of the DCFTA regime in Transdniestria.