{"title":"Fault-frequency prediction of chassis components for heavy-duty trucks","authors":"G.L.J. Wickstrom","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2002.981697","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2002.981697","url":null,"abstract":"This paper describes a routine for prediction of fault frequency in the product development process of heavy duty trucks. When a new truck has left the assembly line and has passed the last check satisfactory, it will have a so called GREEN OK, which means the vehicle is approved to be put into service. In spite of all preventive actions, failures may occur more or less from the first year. As the first and second years are the warranty years, all failures will be reported to the dealer and manufacturer for action accordingly. These claims are presented as fault-frequency during the first and second years. Together with the failure cost they are input for corrective actions in a so-called Problem Solving Process. The fault-frequency development is carefully monitored on quartile basis by the company's management. The specific corrective actions taken in order to solve a specific problem and its cause are calculated, which effect it has to reduce the specific problem and the fault-frequency consequently.","PeriodicalId":395613,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2002 Proceedings (Cat. No.02CH37318)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124491120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Risk analysis using a hybrid Bayesian-approximate reasoning methodology","authors":"T. Bott, S.W. Eisenhawer","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2002.981630","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2002.981630","url":null,"abstract":"Analysts are sometimes asked to make frequency estimates for specific accidents in which the accident frequency is determined primarily by safety controls. Under these conditions, frequency estimates use considerable expert belief in determining how the controls affect the accident frequency. To evaluate and document beliefs about control effectiveness, they have modified a traditional Bayesian approach by using approximate reasoning (AR) to develop prior distributions. Their method produces accident frequency estimates that separately express the probabilistic results produced in Bayesian analysis and possibilistic results that reflect uncertainty about the prior estimates. Based on their experience using traditional methods, they feel that the AR approach better documents beliefs about the effectiveness of controls than if the beliefs are buried in Bayesian prior distributions. They have performed numerous expert elicitations in which probabilistic information was sought from subject matter experts not trained in probability. They find it much easier to elicit the linguistic variables and fuzzy set membership values used in AR than to obtain the probability distributions used in prior distributions directly from these experts because it better captures their beliefs and better expresses their uncertainties.","PeriodicalId":395613,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2002 Proceedings (Cat. No.02CH37318)","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124955257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Availability modeling for the application of manufacturing equipment","authors":"A. Brall","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2002.981676","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2002.981676","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, the author shows that two significant areas of manufacturing availability are not addressed with traditional reliability modeling. First, manufacturing goals-quality parts at the required production rate-can be met despite the \"fact\" that the system did not meet its uptime requirements. Second, process failures can contribute more to manufacturing downtime than actual hardware failures. Proper modeling of manufacturing systems to include all sources of downtime, whether hardware, software, human, or process as well as the production rates, will provide a more accurate depiction of operation. Methods have been developed by others to model software and human reliability. The approach paper details a model for including process reliability and production capacity. The resultant analysis provides a method to help assure that reliability improvement efforts are focused on the primary root causes of downtime-in many cases process problems and not more costly and sometimes technologically infeasible hardware improvement. The analysis also points to addressing the production capabilities so that the operational goal for the manufacturing equipment is not missed.","PeriodicalId":395613,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2002 Proceedings (Cat. No.02CH37318)","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131111461","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Maintenance optimization under uncertainties using interval methods & evolutionary strategies","authors":"C. Rocco","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2002.981651","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2002.981651","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, the authors present two examples of maintenance optimization under uncertainties using interval arithmetic methods and evolutionary strategies. In the first example, they show the use of Interval Arithmetic to solve a single variable global optimization problem related to a replacement at predetermined age for a single component. Interval arithmetic considers the uncertainty of all the parameters at the same time and is able to provide strict bounds for the optimum solution. However, for complex problem, the amount of time required does pose a limitation. In the second example, they consider a multi-component system to determine the range of coordinated maintenance frequencies under to uncertainties. The example presented confirm that the proposed approach based on evolutionary strategies can be used to determine the range of an optimization model with uncertainties on the parameters as it produces a very good approximation. The approach is faster than other approaches and requires no assumption about the function to be optimized.","PeriodicalId":395613,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2002 Proceedings (Cat. No.02CH37318)","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121819635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Probability evaluation of system-failure occurrence based on minimal cut-sets","authors":"T. Kohda, K. Inoue","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2002.981640","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2002.981640","url":null,"abstract":"A minimal cut set (MCS) of FTA (fault tree analysis) shows a minimal combination of component failures leading to system failure, based on which system failure probability can be evaluated. However, the conventional inclusion-exclusion method based on MCSs does not necessarily give the system failure occurrence probability. This paper proposes an analytical probability evaluation method of system failure occurrence based on critical states for each basic event. System failure occurrence is caused by a basic event if it occurs at its critical state. Critical states for a basic event can be obtained using logical expression in terms of MCS's. Thus, the system failure occurrence probability can be obtained as the sum of system failure occurrence probabilities caused by basic events. The proposed method assumes any general distribution for component failure probability. An illustrative example shows the details and merits of the method.","PeriodicalId":395613,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2002 Proceedings (Cat. No.02CH37318)","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127860951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How safety-investments increase performance: a practical case","authors":"P. Sonnemans, P.M.W. Korvers, A. Brombacher","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2002.981629","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2002.981629","url":null,"abstract":"Prevention of incidents at manufacturing facilities, where hazardous material is processed, is a must. Operational efforts in this area are often primarily focused on production and not on safety. A most important reason, as this paper shows, is that the effectiveness of safety investments can neither be calculated nor measured nor traced back adequately, while the effects of production investments immediately show up in terms of profitability. Market share and competition reinforce that attention is primarily focused on production. This paper shows that risk reduction as well as performance improvement can be achieved by better control of the operational processes. In this paper, a method is presented to model, analyse and qualify the control of an operational process. Basic concepts are formally defined, from which a reference model, the so-called 'basic controlled process' is derived. Real life processes can be compared to this reference model. Differences between model and reality are categorized and the control-ability of the real life process can be qualified. Subsequently, the formalism is applied to a real life situation, by means of a case study. It is clearly shown that the presented formalism offers the possibility to analyse the 'control-ability' of an operational process and to identify its most serious deficiencies. From this case, it can be concluded that local control of sub-processes is no guarantee that the operational process on company level is also controlled.","PeriodicalId":395613,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2002 Proceedings (Cat. No.02CH37318)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130448597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
J. Farquharson, J. McDuffee, A. Seah, T. Matsumoto
{"title":"FMEA of marine systems: moving from prescriptive to risk-based design and classification","authors":"J. Farquharson, J. McDuffee, A. Seah, T. Matsumoto","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2002.981636","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2002.981636","url":null,"abstract":"This paper describes the results of studies by American Bureau of Shipping (ABS) to provide risk-based guidelines for performing a failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) on high-speed craft and propulsion remote control systems. This approach describes how frequency and severity categories can be used in the FMEA to guide designers in assessing the risk and reliability of the system. Recognizing that many designers may not be familiar with these risk tools, the guideline provides step-by-step instructions on how to prepare, conduct, and document the analysis.","PeriodicalId":395613,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2002 Proceedings (Cat. No.02CH37318)","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131248637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Planning multiple levels constant stress accelerated life tests","authors":"L. Tang, Guiyu Yang","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2002.981664","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2002.981664","url":null,"abstract":"The authors propose a method for planning constant stress accelerated life tests (CSALT) in which the departure from the usual optimality criterion can be quantified. The scheme is illustrated using three stress levels CSALT. In particular, a contour plot is developed to provide the solution space for sample allocation at high stress and the two lower stress levels. Based on the output from the contour plot, three related approaches for planning CSALT are then presented. Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate the procedures.","PeriodicalId":395613,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2002 Proceedings (Cat. No.02CH37318)","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128126614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The application of RODON to the FMEA of a microgravity facility subsystem","authors":"E. Zampino, D. Burow","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2002.981668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2002.981668","url":null,"abstract":"In March of 2000, R.O.S.E. Informatik GmbH and the Risk Management Office of The NASA Glenn Research Center in Cleveland Ohio decided to collaborate on a pilot application of a computerized model-based reasoning tool called RODON. This collaboration resulted in a failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) of the! fuel/premixed-fuel supply manifold: a subassembly intended to be part of the fluid-combustion facility (FCF) which was planned for microgravity experiments on the International Space Station (ISS). Clarification of design details and component pressure-drop test data was provided by the design engineering team. The fuel/premixed-fuel supply manifold was first analyzed by a reliability engineer using an analyst-dependent technique which \"rests\" primarily upon experience, knowledge, and imagination. The output of the RODON-generated FMEA was compared to the analyst-dependent FMEA. The analysis process utilizing RODON revealed errors from the analyst-dependent FMEA and also detected a laboratory test problem.","PeriodicalId":395613,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2002 Proceedings (Cat. No.02CH37318)","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128298183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reliability/availability of K-out-of-N system with M cold standby units","authors":"Wendai Wang, J. Loman","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2002.981684","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2002.981684","url":null,"abstract":"A generalized repairable system reliability model, K-out-of-N plus M cold standby units, is proposed in this paper. Reliability and availability of this system have been deeply studied under several combinations of assumptions/cases: identical and different cold standby, perfect and imperfect switching, and single backup and backup itself is a k-out-of-n system. Reliability evaluation of such systems is developed and provided. How to design this kind of power system to achieve its reliability requirements is studied and discussed. Factors that affect system reliability characteristics are presented. A real example of the defined system (on-site power plant) is provided through the developed approach. Reliability and availability of the power plant are evaluated, which is much-more reliable than the existing power sources. Further research and considerations are also discussed.","PeriodicalId":395613,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2002 Proceedings (Cat. No.02CH37318)","volume":"77 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122877047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}