{"title":"Normal accident theory validated: interactive complexity and resource availability as predictors of reliability","authors":"Frederick G. Wolf","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2002.981626","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2002.981626","url":null,"abstract":"This paper identifies resource availability as an important organizational factor associated with coupling, one of the two variables associated with system risk, according to Perrow's Normal Accident Theory. By investigating a sample (n=70) of petroleum refineries located in the United States during the five-year period, 1993-97, a statistically significant (p=.01) relationship between resource availability and reliability as indicated by the incidence of accidental hazardous substance releases (RQs) was identified. Tight coupling may not be just a requirement of a manufacturing process, but may result from managerial decisions based upon budgetary factors and stresses.","PeriodicalId":395613,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2002 Proceedings (Cat. No.02CH37318)","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121815291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A simplified availability modeling tool for networks with 1:1 redundant software-hardware systems","authors":"W. Hou, O. Okogbaa","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2002.981702","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2002.981702","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a simplified availability modeling worksheet (SAMOW), a computational tool that incorporates Markov analysis and reliability block diagram methodologies to model and analyze the availability of a typical end-to-end solution consisting of multiple complex component systems, where the failure of each component system is attributed to software failures and hardware failures. The application of SAMOW to 1:1 system redundancy, which is common in the networking industry, is the focus of this study. The end-to-end availability is modeled and computed based on the corresponding signaling path and bearer path since the paths can transverse through different component systems. It is observed that SAMOW is very accurate (compared with the Markov model) when applied to 1:1 redundant systems under various system parameter sets with high switchover coverage.","PeriodicalId":395613,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2002 Proceedings (Cat. No.02CH37318)","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116957652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Can CATV availability reach that of the TELCOs? The road to 5NINES!","authors":"M. Gonzales","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2002.981642","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2002.981642","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discusses hardware, software, and human factors affecting cable television availability, and examines what can be done with each of these factors to enhance system availability. Factors are examined from a cost/benefit analysis standpoint. The paper notes that hardware redesign is expensive and yields only a one order of magnitude increase in availability. On the other hand, simple things like better training, education, and sparing of components-all of which are relatively cheap-can enhance availability by up to three orders of magnitude.","PeriodicalId":395613,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2002 Proceedings (Cat. No.02CH37318)","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124826989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Ulysses, Scylla and Charybdis - and the story of reliability","authors":"G. Turconi","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2002.981631","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2002.981631","url":null,"abstract":"The story of reliability is like the story of other technical and scientific disciplines. High and low points, good ideas and mistakes, sincere enthusiasm and fatigue, rigorous approaches and fads; we find these not only in art, culture and politics, but also in the world of engineering. It's always the same story, ever since the Tower of Babel: we are driven by ambition and pride. Many works of literature have lived for centuries and millennia: Homer, Dante Alighieri, Shakespeare and many others have spoken to us in a universal way. Their stories seem fresh and modem, because humankind is always the same, unable to understand and learn from errors. So we can always find similarities, for example between the Odyssey and the story of our field. Illusions, monsters, storms, errors and hope woven together.","PeriodicalId":395613,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2002 Proceedings (Cat. No.02CH37318)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127019609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Refrigerator failure early prediction based on warranty data","authors":"Ke-ning Liu","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2002.981641","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2002.981641","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a method to predict the failure characteristics of refrigerator components based on the early warranty return data from the field (suspended data). The predication will be used to support the management decision of actions. Very commonly, the company doesn't (or has no capability to) record each unit purchase date by the end customers (not by OEM), but does record all units' manufacture dates and returned units' purchase dates for the warranty claims purpose. This makes it difficult for the analyst to estimate how many units are currently used in the field, which is required in order to do a suspended data analysis. This paper chooses a 'sample population' from warranty claim database and uses Weibull distribution to describe the time duration between the manufacture dates and end customer purchase dates for the units in the sample population. Then, assuming this time duration distribution representing the time duration distribution of the 'objective population', and using integration function described in this paper, how many units of objective population are currently used in the field can be estimated. This makes the reliability prediction possible (by processing the field suspended data). An example is used to demonstrate the method.","PeriodicalId":395613,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2002 Proceedings (Cat. No.02CH37318)","volume":"64 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130591768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reliability, thermal analysis and optimization wirability design of multi-layer PCB boards","authors":"X. Tian, O. Palusinski","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2002.981673","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2002.981673","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a comprehensive reliability and thermal analysis of a typical multi-layer printed wire board (PWB) wirability design. Based on some typical values of modern PWB designs, numerical solutions are provided for the junction temperature, failure rate, reliability, electrical delay and cost of typical PWBs. Then, an optimization wirability design procedure is provided by using a weighting method. The major design variable is the number of signal layers in PWB and criteria being considered are the cost, reliability and electrical performance. Monographs are provided for different design parameters.","PeriodicalId":395613,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2002 Proceedings (Cat. No.02CH37318)","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121274098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Plausible reasoning theory in reliability-centered maintenance analysis","authors":"D. C. Johnston","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2002.981669","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2002.981669","url":null,"abstract":"Reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) is a powerful method for choosing optimal maintenance tactics. By itself, though, the method misses opportunities to deploy expert-level knowledge to the maintenance people performing the analysis. Existing software approaches that attempt to fill this gap, such as expert systems, have numerous drawbacks and in some cases can be detrimental, causing the user to develop a false sense of security. Plausible reasoning theory suggests ways that evidence can be gathered and used efficiently to draw conclusions about maintenance tactics. In conjunction, Bayesian belief networks can be used to capture in software the reasoning strategy suggested by plausible reasoning theory. The author created prototype software using these theories and approaches. The resulting software represents a model of RCM logic and allows the user to work with the model to produce effective results. During the entire analysis process, the user can see instantly the effect that various inputs have on the resulting recommendations. Users are able to pursue the most promising paths of reasoning, arriving at the best RCM solution quickly.","PeriodicalId":395613,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2002 Proceedings (Cat. No.02CH37318)","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114553415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Failure data analysis by models involving 3 Weibull distributions","authors":"Tieling Zhang, Y. Ren","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2002.981618","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2002.981618","url":null,"abstract":"Two kinds of models concerning different combinations of Weibull distributions are studied, where each of the models involves three Weibull-distributions. First, the characteristics of the fitting plots determined by these models on the Weibull plotting paper (WPP) are analyzed. Then, the appropriateness for the models being applied to fitting given failure data is described. For each of the two kinds of models' formulas, parameter estimates are discussed based on the plots on WPP. Finally, an example with real-data illustrates their application. The models presented in this paper can provide flexibility in fitting and explaining failure data. They are more appropriate to be applied to analyzing complex data than models with two Weibull distributions or a mixture of them. For getting numerical estimates of model parameters, the maximum likelihood estimation method can be applied.","PeriodicalId":395613,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2002 Proceedings (Cat. No.02CH37318)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125966108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Probabilistic assessment of availability from system performance data","authors":"J.B. Smith, W. B. Smith","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2002.981704","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2002.981704","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a method of calculating system availability and reliability probability distributions using permutations of inseparable system failure and restore data sets. Such data sets usually come from system history, as reflected in a performance measurement such as daily production. A direct relationship is maintained between any failure and its consequence; that is, time-between-failure (TBF) and time-to-restore (TTR) are an inseparable set. Furthermore, TTR need not be single-valued but may take the form of another data set to accommodate system degradation and dependent failures.","PeriodicalId":395613,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2002 Proceedings (Cat. No.02CH37318)","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125967881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"ISO 9000:2000-the challenges and opportunities for internal auditors","authors":"S. Liebesman","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2002.981690","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2002.981690","url":null,"abstract":"Internal auditing was included in ISO 9001 to provide an indepth review of the quality management system. It is generally agreed that internal auditors are the best source of identifying nonconformities within a system. Changes to the standard have resulted in more challenges for the auditors, but with these challenges come opportunities for improvement. ISO 9001 has been restructured as a set of four major processes: (1) management responsibility, (2) resource management, (3) product realization and (4) measurement, analysis and improvement. A fifth element covers general requirements. The restructuring is a major challenge to the auditors because they are used to auditing the 20 elements of the 1994 version of ISO 9001. There are 8 themes in the standard, which present challenges to the auditor. These are: (1) understanding and applying the eight quality principles, (2) auditing undocumented processes, (3) following the process approach, (4) focusing on the customer, (5) identifying and using measurable objectives, (6) analysis and use of data, (7) assessing competence needs of the organization, and (8) using the improvement loop to enhance quality. The internal auditor should help the organization understand these themes and identify where compliance to ISO 9001 will enhance the value to the organization of its quality management system.","PeriodicalId":395613,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2002 Proceedings (Cat. No.02CH37318)","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128180794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}