Issues of Risk Analysis最新文献

{"title":"About generalized criteria of indexes of assessment","authors":"V. V. Artukhin, Yu. K. Chiasnavichius","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-5-82-85","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-5-82-85","url":null,"abstract":"In this work authors offers the list of the generalized requirements (or criteria) for indexes of assessment. Requirements can be applied during the development and the analysis of assessment indexes for programs and projects of evolution and performance of the Russian Federation regardless of exact subject domain. Based on authors experience in the field of various assessment techniques development, compliance to the listed requirements allows to improve interpretability of assessment indexes which, in turn, increases also their usefulness. Besides, in particular circumstances the concept of \"quality of an index of assessment\" can be expressed through the fact of compliance to the offered requirements (for example, direct calculation of requirements to which the index conforms) that can be the useful, for example, when choosing one \"best\" index of assessment from several alternatives. The offered list of requirements, certainly, isn't single valid one, and article pursues rather the purpose to open a topic for discussion, than to answer the question posed exhaustively.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130702500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk impact on resource distribution in sectors of economics and industrialization","authors":"O. Sukharev, E. Voronchikhina","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-5-40-61","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-5-40-61","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the study is the impact of the risk of economic activity, which is concentrated in the sectors of the economy, on the distribution of resources between sectors, the change in investment in new and old technologies, the manufacturability and the gross value added created, the themes of its growth. Quantitative risk assessment is carried out by the standard square deviation of gross profit in the sectors and in the Russian economy. Manufacturability is determined by the ratio of production on new and old technologies, and new technologies are newly created advanced technologies. The research methodology is a structural analysis that allows the Russian economy to be represented in the form of a dichotomy of the sectors — processing and transactional raw materials. This dichotomy is applied due to the necessary assessment of the course of industrialization and the influence of risk in processing on the dynamics of general and special coefficients of industrialization. The result of the study is that the positive effect of reducing the risk in the manufacturing sector on the change in its manufacturability and improvement of the parameters of industrialization of the economy has been confirmed. Taking into account the relationship of profitability in the sectors of the economy and the risk of doing business in them, the resulting ratios for the levels of profitability and risk in the two sectors were obtained, which give the best pace of their development and the overall dynamics of the gross value added of the Russian economy during the industrialization process. The ratio of risk in the processing and raw materials sector should be less established in the study of the value (1.3) for the dynamics to be the best. This will require measures to reduce the risk in the manufacturing sector, and, most likely, national projects and state guarantees, in this part, perform the function of damping risks. In the transaction sector, risk apparently should not be reduced (the task of raising it looks extraordinary) so that the risk ratio influences the distribution of investment, capital and labor between the sectors in order to ensure the best contribution of the sectors to the overall dynamics of the economy.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131305635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Baikal risk forum: System approach, Application solutions","authors":"E. Severnyuk","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-5-86-91","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-5-86-91","url":null,"abstract":"В конце сентября в Иркутске прошел третий Международный байкальский форум по управлению рисками. Уникальность его заключается в том, что площадка для обмена лучшими практиками и инструментами управления рисками организована самим бизнесом и для бизнеса. А значит, характер имеет самый что ни на есть практический. Едут сюда и за свежими идеями, и за прикладными решениями.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132641869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On Building a Risk Management System in Organizations","authors":"A. Bykov","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-5-8-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-5-8-9","url":null,"abstract":"<jats:p>.</jats:p>","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122971306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Devaluation: Risks of the Russian Ruble and Other Currencies","authors":"V. Didenko, N. Morozko","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-4-76-81","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-4-76-81","url":null,"abstract":"Subject and topic. Currently, the decrease in payments on foreign debts and a decrease in imports have an impact on the demand in the foreign exchange market. As a result, a situation has arisen due to the actions of the Bank of Russia, caused by threats of sanctions that provoked the absence of excessive demand and adequate supply in the foreign exchange market and led to a decrease in ruble exchange rate fl uctuations due to oil price movements.The subject of research is to determine the role of oil prices in the formation of monetary policy, which can be a key driver of economic growth.Objective. Identifi cation of exchange rate management practices with the search for the relationship between the current account of the balance of payments and the volatility of the national currency exchange rate.Research methods, the main provisions. Methods used grouping, comparing and summarizing economic indicators to study the characteristics and trends of the monetary policy of China, South Korea and Latin American countries.A critical analysis of the various points of view of leading scientists on the negative or positive impact of the exchange rate on the development of the economy was carried out. At the same time, it is interesting to analyze the views of individual economists that the dependence of the ruble exchange rate on oil prices has recently largely decreased.The main results of the study. Determination of the theoretical relationship between the price of oil and the exchange rate, based on the shock component, either in oil prices or in the exchange rate, with testing the response of the economic variable to this shock.Main conclusions. It was concluded that in the conditions of the economic situation of the last decade, the main problem of export-oriented and import-oriented countries is the imbalance of the current account of the balance of payments, as well as its relationship, primarily with the prices of export goods.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127960276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comprehensive analysis of territorial risk factors for estimating and managing the natural and technogenic safety","authors":"V. Nicheporchuk, T. G. Penkova","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-4-64-74","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-4-64-74","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents an approach to the comprehensive analysis of territorial risk factors for estimating and managing the natural and technogenic safety based on taking into account the maximum number of factors aff ecting the possibility of occurrence and scale of hazard events. The authors describe the principles of information support of the assessment of territorial risks based on the creation of information resources and the application of modern technologies for consolidation and analysis of monitoring data.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124790555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Geoenvirоnmental risks on the background geopolitical challenges for the oil and gas industry in the Arctic","authors":"O. Trubitsina, V. Bashkin","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-4-12-23","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-4-12-23","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to the issues of geoecology and geopolitics in the Arctic. The authors reveal the need to consider geopolitical challenges in the analysis of geoecological risks (GER) of oil and gas development of the Arctic region. This is due to the intersection here of the strategic interests of several States and their focus to prove the inability of Russia to ensure environmental safety in the development of Arctic fi elds. Th e subject of GER is used as a geopolitical tool against Russia due to the probability of it becoming a key player in the region. The authors propose a model for the analysis of GER, which is based on critical loads (CL) of acidity of pollutants and includes 2 stages: 1) the stage of quantitative assessment of GER, which allows to calculate not only the magnitude of the projected changes in the state of the Arctic ecosystems, but also the probability of their occurrence; 2) the stage of management of GER taking into account geopolitical factors, assuming a qualitative expert assessment, which is a procedure for making a management decision to achieve acceptable levels of the total GER.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123921087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of regional level of catastrophic entrepreneurial risk","authors":"Yu. S. Pinkovetskaia","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-3-52-61","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-3-52-61","url":null,"abstract":"Defined in the Strategy development of small and medium enterprises until 2030 the significant increase in their number and volume of products should be based on the account of risk phenomena. Defining this it is important to analyze the regulations and trends that characterize the existing levels of catastrophic business risk. The paper discusses methodological and empirical aspects of the assessment of catastrophic risk, as well as the calculation formula for determining its level. Official statistics on the number of liquidated enterprises for the period from 2010 to 2017 were used as information. Functions density of normal distribution describing the developed values of catastrophic risks on sets of the enterprises located in all regions of Russia are given. The results of studies have shown that the level of entrepreneurial risk is influenced by crisis phenomena in the economy, as well as the presence of differentiation levels of catastrophic risk on a territorial basis. Lists of regions of the country with the maximum and minimum values of the existing entrepreneurial risks are given. The results of the research can be used by entrepreneurs, employees of banks and other credit institutions, as well as departments of federal, regional and municipal governments related to the regulation of entrepreneurial activity.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123945845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"About creation of risk management systems at the enterprises","authors":"A. Bykov","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-3-8-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-3-8-9","url":null,"abstract":"<jats:p>.</jats:p>","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"73 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122803733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk of soil contamination by heavy metals through gas-dust emissions","authors":"V. Bashkin, R. Galiulin, R. A. Galiulina, A. Arabsky","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-42-49","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-42-49","url":null,"abstract":"The risk of chronic and emergency contamination of soils by heavy metals through gas-dust emissions by the method protected by the patent of the Russian Federation No. 2617533 on an invention including contamination diagnostics by means of the dehydrogenase enzyme activity analysis is estimated. This method of diagnostics allows to reduce time, to increase the accuracy and quality of examination on territories with an unsuccessful geoecological situation.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"108 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124148177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}