风险对经济和工业化部门资源配置的影响

O. Sukharev, E. Voronchikhina
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引用次数: 0

摘要

这项研究的目的是经济活动的风险的影响,这是集中在经济部门之间的资源分配,在新的和旧的技术投资的变化,制造能力和创造的总增加值,其增长的主题。定量风险评估是通过各部门和俄罗斯经济中毛利润的标准差进行的。可制造性是由新旧技术的生产比例决定的,新技术是新创造的先进技术。研究方法是一种结构分析,允许俄罗斯经济以部门二分法的形式表示-加工和交易原材料。采用这种二分法是由于工业化进程和加工风险对工业化一般系数和特殊系数动态的影响的必要评估。研究结果表明,降低制造业风险对制造业可制造性的变化和经济工业化参数的改善具有积极作用。考虑到经济部门的盈利能力和在这些部门开展业务的风险之间的关系,得出了两个部门的盈利能力和风险水平的比率,这给出了它们的最佳发展速度和俄罗斯经济在工业化过程中总增加值的总体动态。在研究价值(1.3)时,加工和原材料部门的风险比率应较少确定,以使动态达到最佳。这将需要采取措施降低制造业的风险,在这一部分,最有可能的是,国家项目和国家担保发挥抑制风险的作用。在交易部门,风险显然不应该降低(提高风险的任务看起来很不寻常),以便风险比率影响投资、资本和劳动力在各部门之间的分配,以确保各部门对经济整体动态的最佳贡献。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Risk impact on resource distribution in sectors of economics and industrialization
The purpose of the study is the impact of the risk of economic activity, which is concentrated in the sectors of the economy, on the distribution of resources between sectors, the change in investment in new and old technologies, the manufacturability and the gross value added created, the themes of its growth. Quantitative risk assessment is carried out by the standard square deviation of gross profit in the sectors and in the Russian economy. Manufacturability is determined by the ratio of production on new and old technologies, and new technologies are newly created advanced technologies. The research methodology is a structural analysis that allows the Russian economy to be represented in the form of a dichotomy of the sectors — processing and transactional raw materials. This dichotomy is applied due to the necessary assessment of the course of industrialization and the influence of risk in processing on the dynamics of general and special coefficients of industrialization. The result of the study is that the positive effect of reducing the risk in the manufacturing sector on the change in its manufacturability and improvement of the parameters of industrialization of the economy has been confirmed. Taking into account the relationship of profitability in the sectors of the economy and the risk of doing business in them, the resulting ratios for the levels of profitability and risk in the two sectors were obtained, which give the best pace of their development and the overall dynamics of the gross value added of the Russian economy during the industrialization process. The ratio of risk in the processing and raw materials sector should be less established in the study of the value (1.3) for the dynamics to be the best. This will require measures to reduce the risk in the manufacturing sector, and, most likely, national projects and state guarantees, in this part, perform the function of damping risks. In the transaction sector, risk apparently should not be reduced (the task of raising it looks extraordinary) so that the risk ratio influences the distribution of investment, capital and labor between the sectors in order to ensure the best contribution of the sectors to the overall dynamics of the economy.
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