{"title":"Security monitoring of computerized boiler rooms with network access and risk assessment on a logicalprobabilistic model","authors":"M. V. Sheptunov","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2018-15-80-91","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2018-15-80-91","url":null,"abstract":"We consider one of the existing technologies, scilicet of the multi-shift safety monitoring, which implies tracking of the integrity of the information system (IS) by periodically replacing each other operators in the interval between diagnostics of the system, in relation to computerized boiler-rooms with network access. Herein the IS of the boiler-house is taken into account as protected from dangerous software-engineering influences through the computer network only if to the beginning of the specified period of time the integrity of the system is ensured and throughout this set period the sources of danger do not penetrate the system (with a calculated probability). Here the operator of the boiler-room figures as an eventual link of the series of the controlled, including the program level, barriers for (external) network malefactor. For computerized boiler-houses, depending on the ratios for the duration of the operator’s work during each shift, the specified period of safe operation and the period between diagnostics, three variants are considered that are typical for this technology. The possibilities of applying the latter in the foreshortening of risk assessment of emergency situations (ES) within the previously developed by the author logical-probabilistic model for computerized boiler-houses are discussed.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"73 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124845300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An interval assessment of the uncertainty of fire and emerging risk parameters","authors":"пожарного рисков","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2018-15-74-79","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2018-15-74-79","url":null,"abstract":"Uncertainty as an attribute of fire and emerging risks has both objective and subjective origin. Like measure uncertainty in modern metrology, the uncertainty in the risk theory has qualitative and quantitative aspects. Several methods for uncertainty quantifying are known. Taking into account the specifics of dangerous industrial objects, the probabilistic approach to quantitative estimation of their risk parameter uncertainty is inapplicable. A good alternative is to assess the fire and emerging risks in the interval setting. In addition to directly assessing the uncertainty of the results obtained — the risk indicators — it also makes it possible to estimate the parametric sensitivity of the model and to assess the conservatism of the assumptions made.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"140 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121756664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"About maximum permissible and preferred risk","authors":"A. Bykov","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2018-15-6-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2018-15-6-7","url":null,"abstract":"<jats:p>.</jats:p>","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"517 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116236048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Evaluation of the industry level entrepreneurial risk in the Russian economy","authors":"Yu. S. Pinkovetskaia","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2018-15-62-72","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2018-15-62-72","url":null,"abstract":"Paper deals with three levels of business risk: acceptable, critical and catastrophic, based on official statistics. The aim of the study was to assess, existing in recent years, values of entrepreneurial risk on the totality of small and medium enterprises, formed by size and industry characteristics. Paper presents the results of risk assessment for a set of medium enterprises, small enterprises and microenterprises in the Russian economy. Based on the results of the study, we concluded that there is a significant differentiation of entrepreneurial risk levels by economic activity. The industries with the maximum and minimum values of the existing business risks are determined. The results of the research can be used by entrepreneurs (including beginners), departments of Federal, regional and municipal authorities related to the regulation of entrepreneurial activity, by employees of business structures, financial and credit, insurance, leasing organizations.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130795186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Arakelyan, M. Vedernikova, A. Kiselev, S. Panchenko, S. V. Strizhova, V. A. Chuharev
{"title":"Analysis of health risks of the population of the city of Obninsk from the eff ects of harmful substances emissions into the atmosphere","authors":"A. Arakelyan, M. Vedernikova, A. Kiselev, S. Panchenko, S. V. Strizhova, V. A. Chuharev","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2018-15-5-26-37","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2018-15-5-26-37","url":null,"abstract":"The article shows the results of the analysis of the environmental situation in the city of Obninsk, formed as a result of the current and previous activities of industrial enterprises, including the nuclear ones. In the course of the research, the data on federal, regional and object monitoring systems for emissions and the state of the natural environments in terms of their contamination with technogenic products with radiation and toxic effects on human health was collected, analyzed and systematized. Particular attention is paid to air pollution due to the significant contribution of the inhalation component to the entry of harmful substances into the human body. The content of pollutants in the air in the city was identified by monitoring results and the distribution calculation of surface concentrations. The quality of surface water and soil was also analyzed. A comparative assessment of radiation and chemical risks for the population of Obninsk was carried out. Based on the obtained values of potential risks, the leading factors in the formation of the technogenic burden on the population were identified. The conducted assessment and the analysis of risks of anthropogenic origin can be used in ranking the factors of possible impact on public health. Also, the results of environmental studies using math simulation can be useful for enhancement the existing monitoring system in order to ensure the environmental safety of the studied region.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"111 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117197351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. V. Rybakov, E. Ivanov, D. S. Sedov, R. Ovsyannikov
{"title":"On the model for assessing the stability of the city’s territory to the impact of conventional means of destruction","authors":"A. V. Rybakov, E. Ivanov, D. S. Sedov, R. Ovsyannikov","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2018-15-5-38-45","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2018-15-5-38-45","url":null,"abstract":"The article presents the scheme of the model of urban infrastructure sustainability assessment under the impact of damaging means. The calculation of forces and means using the energy method was made and the transport task was solved.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134603502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Method of integral analytical estimation of the natural and anthropogenic territory safety (in case of Krasnoyarsk region)","authors":"T. G. Penkova, Anna Metus, V. Nicheporchuk","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2018-15-5-16-25","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2018-15-5-16-25","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a method of integral analytical estimation of the natural and anthropogenic safety of the territories which provides the formation of a complex indicator based on multidimensional analytical modelling of the state of environment and technosphere objects. The basic principles of creation of a geographically-oriented safety standard and algorithm of calculating an integral assessment of natural and anthropogenic safety of the territories are proposed here. The practical result of the work is an implementation of suggested method for estimation of the natural and anthropogenic safety of the Krasnoyarsk territory.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129492595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}