Issues of Risk Analysis最新文献

{"title":"Management of Individual Occupational Risk Using Health-Saving Technologies","authors":"T. A. Shendakova, I. Alibekova, E. V. Kulakova","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-1-34-41","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-1-34-41","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of the research was to substantiate the feasibility of using health-saving technologies in the management of individual occupational risk and to develop a scientifically based set of industrial gymnastics for knowledge workers.Research methods. Three groups of employees were formed to conduct research. The estimation of mental performance index was done with a correction task according to V. Ya. Anfimov’s Table. The study of the fatigue of intellectual workers was conducted by testing for a simple visual-motor reaction using the computer program “Reaction Time Test”. The calculation of individual occupational risk was carried out according to the methodology of N.F. Izmerova, L.V. Prokopenko, N.I. Simonova, et al., Klin Institute of safety and working conditions.Results. The study of working performance showed that doing introductory gymnastics contributes to improving working performance by the end of the warming up period and maintaining it at a good level before a break for lunch. Doing industrial gymnastics with any set of exercises an hour and a half after the lunch break provides a higher working performance until the end of the working day.The study of employee fatigue confirms that doing introductory gymnastics in the working time does not significantly affect the fatigue of employees by noon. Conducting industrial gymnastics according to the developed complex an hour and a half after the lunch break provides significantly less fatigue (p < 0.05) until the end of the working day. It takes 30 minutes of working time to do a set of industrial gymnastics.Conclusion. Thus, a scientifically based set of industrial gymnastics for office employees has been developed to prevent occupational and work-related diseases. The proposed set of exercises is effective and a set of exercises can be recommended for use. The indicator of the employee’s health status is the only component, influencing which it is possible to manage individual occupational risk.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129157521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reducing the Level of Occupational Risks when Working at Height Through the SPEKOT Training System","authors":"E. Yakovleva, A. S. Frolov, M. O. Bykov","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-1-24-33","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-1-24-33","url":null,"abstract":" This article discusses direct and indirect methods of assessing occupational risks and the procedure for their assessment. The use of engineering and technical solutions and restrictions does not completely exclude the possibility of the impact of occupational risks on employees and one of the key factors influencing the occurrence of risk is the level of training of employees in safe methods of work. To reduce the level of professional risks when working at height, the SPEKOT training system is proposed and considered. The system allows you to create, conduct and monitor the training of employees in the company on labor protection rules when working at height.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128570775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessment of the Impact of Factors on the Development of Agricultural Production in the Region from a Risk-Oriented Perspective","authors":"E. Karanina, Yuriy Domenko","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-1-54-63","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-1-54-63","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study is to substantiate and test in the context of the specialization of agricultural enterprises of the Kirov region a risk-oriented approach to assessing the impact of a number of factors that allow identifying promising directions for the development of agricultural production at the planning stage.The objectives of the study are to apply a risk-oriented approach to assessing the impact of economic, natural-climatic and technical factors on the strategic development of agricultural production in the region (municipality). Methodology. This article uses the factor and variance analysis method.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114290816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"About Approaches for Managing Professional Risk","authors":"A. Bykov","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-1-8-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-1-8-9","url":null,"abstract":"<jats:p>.</jats:p>","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122335692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enterprise Counterparty Risk Assessment Principles","authors":"Y. Trifonov, E. A. Fomina","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-1-42-52","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-1-42-52","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this article is to describe in detail the principles of risk assessment of counterparties of enterprises and to analyze methods of minimizing risks when interacting with them. The risk assessment of counterparties is a section of the enterprise risk assessment system developed by the authors of the article on the full range of emerging risks, which provides for risk analysis using the developed tools used in assessing the effectiveness of both project and current activities of enterprises. The risk assessment system of counterparties is a detailed classification of risks of counterparties of enterprises, which includes fifteen risk subgroups, each of which is represented by a wide range of risks. Analysis of counterparty risks using the developed risk assessment system allows you to optimize interaction with problematic and potentially problematic counterparties of enterprises and, if necessary, exclude the conclusion of knowingly unprofitable contracts. The article materials can be used by enterprises when analyzing counterparties, both during the current interaction with existing counterparties, and planning the conclusion of contracts with new counterparties, as well as when developing risk assessment and management systems at enterprises. In addition, the materials of the article can be used by scientists in the course of studying the principles of conducting risk analysis of enterprises and all interested persons. In general, the application of the risk assessment system of counterparties, in particular, and the general risk assessment system and the developed tools allows to significantly optimize the risk assessment process of enterprises and significantly reduce the cost of analysis.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116094432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Role of Financial Instruments in Solving the Global Climate Crisis","authors":"M. Turek","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-1-64-74","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-1-64-74","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the accumulation of scientific evidence for an anthropogenic role in global warming, the response in terms of international action remains rather disappointing. The Kyoto Protocol failed to create an international coalition in favour of a carbon price in relation to its social cost and served to illustrate the intrinsic instability of any international effort which does not take the “free-rider” problem seriously. Any international agreement must meet three criteria: economic efficiency, incentives to meet commitments and equity. Efficiency is only possible if all countries apply the same carbon price. An incentive may entail offering some flexibility regarding “free riding.” Equity, a concept whose definition differs depending on the stakeholders involved, can be achieved through flat-rate transfers. The strategy of a voluntary reduction of carbon emissions, such as that adopted by key countries, is a further example of choosing to postpone clear commitment, while, in the meantime, paying insufficient attention to the financial instruments available.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126939601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development of a Risk Classifier as a Stage of Successful Risk Management","authors":"S. Brykalov, V. Trifonov, E. A. Gureva","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2021-18-6-40-53","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2021-18-6-40-53","url":null,"abstract":"The article gives the analysis of approaches to risk classification at industrial enterprise. Based on the findings, conclusions about advantages and disadvantages were drawn up, as well as the possibilities for its application at nuclear enterprises are formulated. The authors propose an original personalized approach to risk classifier development, which takes into account the nuclear industry specifics. An example of an algorithm for risk classifier development based on above-mentioned approach for the enterprise of the Rosatom State Corporation is given. This example can be used in various industries and may be of interest to risk management researchers and specialists. ","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129713108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Main Threats and Challenges for Russia in the First Half of the XXI Century and Possible Areas of Work to Mitigate their Consequences","authors":"V. P. Malyshev","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2021-18-6-10-23","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2021-18-6-10-23","url":null,"abstract":"This article analyzes threats and challenges for the Russian Federation in the first half of the XXI century and identifies possible directions for improving security in emergency situations based on the use of new approaches in organizational, legal, scientific and technical support of measures, management bodies and civil defense forces and the unified state system of emergency prevention and response (RSChS).","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126444836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Issues of the Risk-Based Approach","authors":"E. Kolesnikov, F. Vasileios","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2021-18-6-84-92","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2021-18-6-84-92","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the article was to analyze the problems currently standing in the way of more effective application of the risk-based approach methodology in the field of technogenic safety management. Methods — theoretical, inductive method, analysis of own experience, adopted normative legal acts, other publications. The main results of the work include the following: • despite the broadest use of the concept of “risk” in the field of technogenic safety management, there is no generally accepted interpretation of it to date; • often the evaluative concept of “risk” is mistakenly used instead of objectively existing risk factors; • quantifiably technogenic risk should be characterized by indicators of numerical nature, having vector objects, since two components should be indicated for the complete assignment of the indicator: the probability and the amount of damage; • experience shows that the methods of assessing the probabilistic component of risk indicators recommended by regulatory documents on the analysis and quantification of technogenic risk are accompanied by a very large uncertainty, therefore, instead of the traditional point statement, a more adequate method of assessment is the use of an interval approach that takes into account and allows quantifying this uncertainty; • the analysis showed that the so-called frequency approach, which is most often used to assess the probabilistic component of technogenic risk indicators, is used improperly, has no basis, since, as a rule, the phenomenon of statistical stability is not observed in the object area of the technosphere, there are no general aggregates; • in society and even among specialists, by now there is no understanding of the need to express all three components of damage from an accident (explosion/fire) in monetary terms, without which it is impossible to estimate and express the amount of total damage: —  in conclusion, four key problems that hinder the more effective use of the risk-based approach methodology in the field of technogenic safety management are listed; —  imperfection of the existing methodological base for the analysis and quantitative assessment of technogenic risk; — the problem of staffing in the field of technogenic risk management; — lack of national criteria for acceptable risk; —  complete disregard of the problem of uncertainty of the results of the COR, the lack of methodological support for the procedure of analysis and quantification of this uncertainty. Conclusion — the efforts of the entire community of specialists-researchers, legislators, practitioners engaged in various aspects of the problem of technosphere safety management are necessary to solve the tasks specified in the article.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115031196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Safety and Risk of Operating Facilities: Rapid Assessment Methodology","authors":"I. Ivashchenko, M. Goncharov","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2021-18-6-66-83","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2021-18-6-66-83","url":null,"abstract":"Two methods for methodology uses “risk indices” (dam condition index I), as well as “fuzzy logic methods” to combine the original quantitative and qualitative (expert) information on the operated dam condition. The approach applied is in accordance with the recommendations of IEC 31010: 2019. Risk Management — Risk Assessment Techniques. Deterministic assessments of the condition in the form of “risk indices” were also used as input data in assessing the probability of the failure and in developing a probabilistic risk assessment methodology. The original database, as well as the damage assessment scale, modified in the course of the research, summarize the experience of surveys and examination of safety declarations of more than 180 hydraulic works in Russia. A description is given of the methods of initial assessment and digitization (quantification) of the condition index I, as well as combining the initial quantitative and qualitative (expert) information about various damages. The practical feasibility and the possibility of categorizing (with fuzzy boundaries) conditions and levels of damage to hydraulic structures are shown. With regard to various conditions and levels of damage, proposals are made for practical actions to ensure the safety of dams in the process of monitoring, inspection, development of a reconstruction project and its expertise. As a result of the research, the dependence of the probability of the failure pfailure on the average value of the Iср index has been established and the graph “pfailure – Iср” is presented, which is well described by the exponential and is convenient for practical application. The value of I ср is determined according to the data of visual and instrumental control of the dam condition of the as well as according to expert estimates. The methodology for creation the indicated graph is presented. The creation of this graph became possible on the basis of: statistical processing, proof of the “normality” of the distribution of the I indices and the estimation (according to the distribution functions constructed for each level of damage) the probability of the failure pfailure, as well as during the survey and examination of the dam project. Proposals are formulated for the practical application of the proposed methods for assessing the risk of operating dams, and the near-term prospect of research in the field of risk assessment and ensuring dam safety is formulated.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125103784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}