Issues of the Risk-Based Approach

Abstract

The purpose of the article was to analyze the problems currently standing in the way of more effective application of the risk-based approach methodology in the field of technogenic safety management. Methods — theoretical, inductive method, analysis of own experience, adopted normative legal acts, other publications. The main results of the work include the following: • despite the broadest use of the concept of “risk” in the field of technogenic safety management, there is no generally accepted interpretation of it to date; • often the evaluative concept of “risk” is mistakenly used instead of objectively existing risk factors; • quantifiably technogenic risk should be characterized by indicators of numerical nature, having vector objects, since two components should be indicated for the complete assignment of the indicator: the probability and the amount of damage; • experience shows that the methods of assessing the probabilistic component of risk indicators recommended by regulatory documents on the analysis and quantification of technogenic risk are accompanied by a very large uncertainty, therefore, instead of the traditional point statement, a more adequate method of assessment is the use of an interval approach that takes into account and allows quantifying this uncertainty; • the analysis showed that the so-called frequency approach, which is most often used to assess the probabilistic component of technogenic risk indicators, is used improperly, has no basis, since, as a rule, the phenomenon of statistical stability is not observed in the object area of the technosphere, there are no general aggregates; • in society and even among specialists, by now there is no understanding of the need to express all three components of damage from an accident (explosion/fire) in monetary terms, without which it is impossible to estimate and express the amount of total damage: —  in conclusion, four key problems that hinder the more effective use of the risk-based approach methodology in the field of technogenic safety management are listed; —  imperfection of the existing methodological base for the analysis and quantitative assessment of technogenic risk; — the problem of staffing in the field of technogenic risk management; — lack of national criteria for acceptable risk; —  complete disregard of the problem of uncertainty of the results of the COR, the lack of methodological support for the procedure of analysis and quantification of this uncertainty. Conclusion — the efforts of the entire community of specialists-researchers, legislators, practitioners engaged in various aspects of the problem of technosphere safety management are necessary to solve the tasks specified in the article.