Tong Xiaopeng, Mao Zhe, Chen Xu, Wu Qing, Sang Ling-zhi
{"title":"Vessel trajectory prediction in curving channel of inland river","authors":"Tong Xiaopeng, Mao Zhe, Chen Xu, Wu Qing, Sang Ling-zhi","doi":"10.1109/ICTIS.2015.7232156","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICTIS.2015.7232156","url":null,"abstract":"The water transportation plays an important role in the world recently. However, the maritime accidents are attracting public attention. The way to improve safety of navigation has become a prior task for the operations. The trajectory is useful to analyze the features of the traffic flow and helpful to simulate traffic flows. Therefore, to explore the law of navigation in curving waterway and the reliability prediction of trajectories could provide security for the navigation of ships, and also provide the decision-making for trajectory-planning and risk warning. This paper uses Markov Chain and Grey prediction, and improves the traditional Markov model. Based on this, it offers a prediction method for island ship in curving waterway on the foundation of Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. It can be showed that this method can effectively predict the trajectory of island ship.","PeriodicalId":389628,"journal":{"name":"2015 International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety (ICTIS)","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116642048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fractal characteristics analysis on driving behavior time series: Example with speed data as vehicle driving towards an intersection","authors":"Zhang Liangli, Zhu He, Chen Lingjuan, Zheng Anwen, Chu Wen-hui","doi":"10.1109/ICTIS.2015.7232055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICTIS.2015.7232055","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we use the fractal theory to analyze the characteristics of driving behavior time series. Three types of driving behavior such as driving a vehicle towards an intersection for turn-left, driving for turn-right, and driving for go-straight are designed as a set of real vehicle driving experiments to be carried out. The speed data collected by a real vehicle driving experimental platform are arranged into speed time series. Those time series corresponding to the three types of driving behavior had the same number of data and the equal time intervals. To analyze whether the speed time series varying randomly or having a bias, the method of rescaled range analysis is introduced and the degrees of correlation quantized as H-values are resolved and mapped to the fractal characteristics. Then, to search the further characteristics as if the speed time series would be multi-fractal, analysis with a partition function for transformation where real value q as the exponent value, and the τ(q) regarded as a quality index function are applied. As all the curves trends of the three types of driving behavior met the requirement of a multi-fractal object, the multi-fractal spectrums of each speed time series of the corresponding driving behavior are drawn out. The relevant indexes of those spectrums could be regarded as characteristic values for describing or predicting a specific type of driving behavior in the given traffic environment.","PeriodicalId":389628,"journal":{"name":"2015 International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety (ICTIS)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122503314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Interactive multi-objective vehicle routing via GA-based dynamic programming","authors":"R. Khan, Jian-Bo Yang, J. Handl","doi":"10.1109/ICTIS.2015.7232166","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICTIS.2015.7232166","url":null,"abstract":"This research is focused on dealing with multiple conflicting objectives in vehicle scheduling problem in an urban delivery context. The distinctive feature of this research is that an interactive reference point approach is applied to support the trade-off analysis of multiple conflicting objectives, including the minimization of total time, distance and CO2 emissions in the context of time-varying congestion data, derived as time-dependent historical average travel speed data from the UK road network. Due to congestion, average travel speeds on different roads change throughout the day and optimal routes may differ across time slots. Because of the conflict among the objectives, a solution that is optimal for one objective may or may not be optimal for other objectives. A hybrid algorithm mixing dynamic programming with an evolutionary algorithm is first developed to generate sets of efficient solutions. The proposed interactive approach is then described, which alternates between solution generation and preference elicitation from a decision maker. The effectiveness of the approach is illustrated using a case study that combines synthetic demand data for a company with the actual road and congestion information in the UK. The results obtained using the proposed interactive approach are compared to those obtained when a single objective is optimised.","PeriodicalId":389628,"journal":{"name":"2015 International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety (ICTIS)","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126971785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Regression analysis of association between vehicle performance and driver casualty risk in traffic accidents","authors":"Guangming Zhao, Wenhui Zhou, Jian Li","doi":"10.1109/ICTIS.2015.7232070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICTIS.2015.7232070","url":null,"abstract":"According to statistics from 2011 to 2013, in China, approximately 60,000 people were killed in road traffic accidents every year. And about 4% of these accidents have vehicle safety issues, such as brake failure, tire burst. To investigate association between vehicle safety performance and traffic accident casualty risk, 1302 traffic accident samples with detailed information were collected and transformed into data. Base on logistic regression analysis, the quantitative function relationship between vehicle status and driver injury severity was built. This research method represents an important step in the methodological evaluation of vehicle data with respect to traffic safety.","PeriodicalId":389628,"journal":{"name":"2015 International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety (ICTIS)","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127811331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Quantitative risk assessment method for the on-board ATP of high-speed railway","authors":"Lei Shi, Wei Zheng, Ningjie Ning, Daohua Wu","doi":"10.1109/ICTIS.2015.7232116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICTIS.2015.7232116","url":null,"abstract":"With the great improvement of operational speed of trains, the on-board ATP of the high-speed railway plays an essential role in train's safe operation as a major component of the signal system. Therefore, it is necessary and important to identify and assess risks in the on-board ATP. In this paper, a quantitative risk assessment method is proposed based on the Bow-tie model. Event trees are exploited for the graphical presentations of accident evolution path from risks. Moreover, it can quantitatively evaluate the accident probabilities and frequencies. The potential risks of system have been identified as well as system's weak link by fault tree analysis, which are the initial events of event tree. Combined with the ALARP principle with F-N curve, the risk acceptable level may be determined. In addition, the safety integrity level of system can be revaluated correctly. Finally, in the case study, the method is applied to analyze the on-board ATP.","PeriodicalId":389628,"journal":{"name":"2015 International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety (ICTIS)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133610141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Research on the input-output assessment method of the VTS based on DEA","authors":"Dejun Chen, Xiaoli Kong, Xiangyang Wang, J. Mou","doi":"10.1109/ICTIS.2015.7232113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICTIS.2015.7232113","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the input-output model based on data envelopment analysis (DEA), puts forward an input-output model of the vessel traffic services (VTS) based on DEA and builds the input and output index of this model combining with the demand characteristics of the running VTS' efficiency assessment. Combining with an instance of VTS, this paper analyzes the algorithm of the proposed model and the analysis conclusion is consistent with the actual situation so as to verify the validity of the model, and then provides a solving method for the efficiency assessment of VTS' quantitative.","PeriodicalId":389628,"journal":{"name":"2015 International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety (ICTIS)","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134222038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Research of highway bottlenecks based on catastrophe theory","authors":"Shui Yishui, Z. Hongjiang, Chen Wei","doi":"10.1109/ICTIS.2015.7232066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICTIS.2015.7232066","url":null,"abstract":"Accidents in the highway always cause lane occupancy but may not cause congestion. This paper analyses the theory combined with vissim for simulation and matlab for data analysis, which finds that the relationship between highway bottlenecks and congestion can be explained by catastrophe theory. Relations of traffic flow parameters (flow rate - density) will result in sudden change. That means the traffic congestion will suddenly become serious but not slowly become serious as traffic flow increases. The study of catastrophe theory of highway bottlenecks is very helpful for traffic control and transport phenomena prediction.","PeriodicalId":389628,"journal":{"name":"2015 International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety (ICTIS)","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134136644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modelling of road safety attributes in the case of road network development on regional level in Poland","authors":"A. Szarata, W. Dźwigoń","doi":"10.1109/ICTIS.2015.7232131","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICTIS.2015.7232131","url":null,"abstract":"The paper presents the Polish evaluation procedure of the influence of new road infrastructure on traffic safety. The presented methodology has been widely used on national roads in Poland since 2009. According to the Polish requirements, the evaluation should be conducted on an early stage of the designing process and together with the Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) and environmental analysis, as it plays an important role in the final assessment of alternative solutions. The main goal of the procedure is to create the rank of planned investments (alternatives) and their evaluation of the traffic safety level (indirectly, gives also the input data for CBA). The analysis is based mostly on traffic volume and traffic forecasts. Due to the necessity of analysisng the whole area of influence (road network) in traffic safety features on designed road, it is important to take into consideration reliable traffic forecasts developed with modelling tools. For the chosen areas, it is necessary to identify road sections with high accident concentration (number of fatal accidents that have occurred in the previous years) and estimate impact of developed road system on traffic safety. The example of implementation of the presented procedure in the case of planned express road S1 (southern Poland) constitutes an important part of this paper. The paper consists of sensitivity analysis of the presented procedure and presents final ranking of tested variants.","PeriodicalId":389628,"journal":{"name":"2015 International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety (ICTIS)","volume":"109 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114820155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A decision making approach at an air highway ramp","authors":"Wang Li-li, Wang Wan-le, Wu Yue","doi":"10.1109/ICTIS.2015.7232165","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICTIS.2015.7232165","url":null,"abstract":"In order to alleviate the increasingly serious air traffic congestion problem, a new airspace structure named air highway was proposed by researchers, who have been designing and improving the operation methods and rules for air highway ever since. According to the operation characteristics of air highway, this paper proposes a slot allocation method for aircraft to enter an air highway. Taking into consideration the delay costs and route utilization costs for both the air highway and the conventional route, a mathematical decision making model based on the minimum cost is established, and the appropriate algorithm is described. In the last section this paper presents a simulation case, which calculates the times for aircraft to enter the air highway and provides the results of using the decision making model. The simulation results show that the model and algorithm are effective.","PeriodicalId":389628,"journal":{"name":"2015 International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety (ICTIS)","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116741680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Risk evaluation for sustainable packaging logistics solution: A quantitative method and case study","authors":"Jing Shi, Dong Li, Xianliang Shi, Qiwen Du","doi":"10.1109/ICTIS.2015.7232172","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICTIS.2015.7232172","url":null,"abstract":"Packaging's impact on sustainability does not solely reflect on itself at product level like traditional product, but instead, the interaction between different packaging layers and between packaging and logistic activities are considered to have significant impact on logistics performance along the supply chain [1, 2]. Also, as the interface between logistics operation, end user and packed product [3], packaging is tightly related to the effectiveness safety and risk of logistic operations and the cargo. Therefore, the packaging logistics researches emphasises the packaging and logistics interactions could not be ignored when evaluating the sustainability of packaging. However, existing researches in this field only qualitatively provide suggestions to packaging design considerations. In this paper, an evaluation framework is proposed for packaging logistics sustainability, and a quantitative method is developed to evaluate the packaging with logistic activities from a holistic view to provide suggestion to packaging and logistics design decision with quantitative scale. After that, a case study to compare the sustainability of two different packaging is conducted using the proposed method.","PeriodicalId":389628,"journal":{"name":"2015 International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety (ICTIS)","volume":"423 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115856519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}