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Dynamic Sampling Policy For Subset Selection 子集选择的动态抽样策略
2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715357
Gongbo Zhang, Yijie Peng, Jianghua Zhang, Enlu Zhou
{"title":"Dynamic Sampling Policy For Subset Selection","authors":"Gongbo Zhang, Yijie Peng, Jianghua Zhang, Enlu Zhou","doi":"10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715357","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715357","url":null,"abstract":"We consider a problem of selecting a subset of a finite number of competing alternatives via Monte Carlo simulation, where the subset contains the top-m alternatives. Under the Bayesian framework, we develop a dynamic sampling policy to efficiently learn and select the top-m alternatives. The proposed sampling policy is proved to be consistent, i.e., the selected alternatives will be the true top-m alternatives as the number of simulation budget goes to infinity. Numerical results show that the proposed sampling policy outperforms the existing ones.","PeriodicalId":369368,"journal":{"name":"2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134260177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Simulating Online Social Response: A Stimulus/Response Perspective 模拟在线社会反应:刺激/反应视角
2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715347
Huajie Shao, T. Abdelzaher, Jiawei Han, Minhao Jiang, Yuning Mao, Yu Meng, Wenda Qiu, Dachun Sun, Ruijie Wang, Chaoqi Yang, Zhenzhou Yang, Xinyang Zhang, Yu Zhang, Sam Cohen, James Flamino, G. Korniss, O. Malik, Aamir Mandviwalla, B. Szymanski, Lake Yin
{"title":"Simulating Online Social Response: A Stimulus/Response Perspective","authors":"Huajie Shao, T. Abdelzaher, Jiawei Han, Minhao Jiang, Yuning Mao, Yu Meng, Wenda Qiu, Dachun Sun, Ruijie Wang, Chaoqi Yang, Zhenzhou Yang, Xinyang Zhang, Yu Zhang, Sam Cohen, James Flamino, G. Korniss, O. Malik, Aamir Mandviwalla, B. Szymanski, Lake Yin","doi":"10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715347","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715347","url":null,"abstract":"The paper describes a methodology for simulating online social media activities that occur in response to external events. A large number of social media simulators model information diffusion on online social networks. However, information cascades do not originate in vacuum. Rather, they often originate as a reaction to events external to the online medium. Thus, to predict activity on the social medium, one must investigate the relation between external stimuli and online social responses. The paper presents a simulation pipeline that features stimulus/response models describing how social systems react to external events of relevance to them. Two case studies are presented to test the fidelity of different models. One investigates online responses to events in the Venezuela election crisis. The other investigates online responses to developments of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). These case studies indicate that simple macroscopic stimulus/response models can accurately predict aggregate online trends.","PeriodicalId":369368,"journal":{"name":"2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133193904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Model-based Analysis of Evacuation Strategies in Hospital Emergency Departments 基于模型的医院急诊科疏散策略分析
2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715522
Boyi Su, Jaeyoung Kwak, A. Pourghaderi, M. Lees, K. Tan, S. Y. Loo, Ivan S. Y. Chua, Joy L. J. Quah, Wentong Cai, M. Ong
{"title":"A Model-based Analysis of Evacuation Strategies in Hospital Emergency Departments","authors":"Boyi Su, Jaeyoung Kwak, A. Pourghaderi, M. Lees, K. Tan, S. Y. Loo, Ivan S. Y. Chua, Joy L. J. Quah, Wentong Cai, M. Ong","doi":"10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715522","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715522","url":null,"abstract":"Evacuation planning for emergency incidents is an essential preparedness for Emergency Departments (ED) which normally contains patients with severe illness and limited mobility. However, the preparedness can be challenging due to a lack of empirical data and difficulties conducting physical drills. We propose an agent-based model to simulate the evacuation process in the EDs containing medical staff, rescuers, visitors and various types of patients. In a case study, we apply the model to a peak hour scenario of the ED of the largest hospital in Singapore. Two rescue strategies with different behavior sequences of medical staff as suggested by the practitioners are evaluated. The simulation results show that prioritizing preparation of all the patients generates less total evacuation time but leads to fewer evacuated cases in the first 20 minutes and more serious congestion compared to one-by-one transfer of individual patients.","PeriodicalId":369368,"journal":{"name":"2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"96 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133287404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Requirements for Data-Driven Reliability Modeling and Simulation of Smart Manufacturing Systems 数据驱动的智能制造系统可靠性建模与仿真要求
2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715410
J. Friederich, Sune Chung Jepsen, S. Lazarova-Molnar, T. Worm
{"title":"Requirements for Data-Driven Reliability Modeling and Simulation of Smart Manufacturing Systems","authors":"J. Friederich, Sune Chung Jepsen, S. Lazarova-Molnar, T. Worm","doi":"10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715410","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715410","url":null,"abstract":"Planning and deploying reliable Smart Manufacturing Systems (SMSs) is of increasing interest to both scholars and practitioners. High system reliability goes hand in hand with reduced maintenance costs and enables optimized repairs and replacements. To leverage the full potential of SMSs and enable data-driven reliability assessment, data needs should be precisely defined. System integration is a key concept of the Industry 4.0 initiative and it can aid the extraction of the needed data. In this paper, we study the data requirements for a novel middleware for SMSs to enable and support data-driven reliability assessment. We present this middleware architecture and demonstrate its application through a case study, which is used to generate exemplary data that corresponds to the derived requirements. The data requirements and the middleware architecture can support researchers in developing novel data-driven reliability assessment methods, as well as assist practitioners in designing and deploying SMSs in companies.","PeriodicalId":369368,"journal":{"name":"2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130109306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Anal Yzing Impact Of Semi-Productive Work Hours In Scheduling and Budgeting Labor-Intensive Projects: Simulation-Based Approach 半生产性工作时间对劳动密集型项目调度和预算的影响分析:基于仿真的方法
2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715354
Leila Zahedi, Ming Lu, Todd Collister
{"title":"Anal Yzing Impact Of Semi-Productive Work Hours In Scheduling and Budgeting Labor-Intensive Projects: Simulation-Based Approach","authors":"Leila Zahedi, Ming Lu, Todd Collister","doi":"10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715354","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715354","url":null,"abstract":"This research investigates labor productivity based on resource-constrained project scheduling simulation models in order to render analytical decision support in planning crew size and worker-activity allocation for steel girder fabrication projects. In the dynamic environment of a structural steel fabrication facility, each laborer (journeyman) is part of teams temporarily formed at particular workstations to conduct various material-handling and connection activities. Discrete-event-simulation-based resource-constrained scheduling analysis is instrumental in analyzing semi-productive work hours resulting from labor transferring between activities and crew matching. In the case study, semi-productive work hours can be lowered from about one half of the total working time to a third by fine-tuning the crew size and work sequencing based on the simulation model, thereby resulting in enhancements on the time and cost performances of the entire project.","PeriodicalId":369368,"journal":{"name":"2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116488696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cyber (Re-)Insurance Policy Writing Is Np-Hard In Iot Societies 在物联网社会，网络(再)保险保单的撰写非常困难
2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715524
R. Pal, Taoan Lu, Peihan Liu, Xinlong Yin
{"title":"Cyber (Re-)Insurance Policy Writing Is Np-Hard In Iot Societies","authors":"R. Pal, Taoan Lu, Peihan Liu, Xinlong Yin","doi":"10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715524","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715524","url":null,"abstract":"The last decade has witnessed steadily growing markets for cyber (re-)insurance products to mitigate residual cyber-risk. In this introductory effort, we prove that underwriting simple cyber re-insurance policies can be worst case computationally hard, i.e., NP-Hard, especially for upcoming IoT societies. More specifically, let alone human underwriters, even a computer cannot compute an optimal cyber re-insurance policy in a reasonable amount of time in worst case scenarios. Here, optimality of a contract is judged based on the extent of information asymmetry induced negative externalities it mitigates between a re-insurance seller and a buyer. Our result does not challenge the existence of cyber re-insurance markets that we feel will be a necessity in the IoT age, but only rationalizes why their growth might be slow, and would subsequently need regulatory intervention. As a direct applicability of our methodology, we argue that optimal traditional cyber-insurance underwriting in IoT societies is also NP-Hard.","PeriodicalId":369368,"journal":{"name":"2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115047011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Identification of Latent Structure in Spatio-Temporal Models of Violence 暴力时空模型的潜在结构识别
2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715406
Nicholas J. Clark, Krista Watts
{"title":"Identification of Latent Structure in Spatio-Temporal Models of Violence","authors":"Nicholas J. Clark, Krista Watts","doi":"10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715406","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715406","url":null,"abstract":"The modeling of violence, including terrorist activity, over space and time is often done using one of two broad classes of statistical models. Typically, the location of an event is modeled as a spatio-temporal point process and the latent structure is either modeled through a latent Gaussian process motivated by a log-Gaussian Cox process or through data dependency similar to a Hawkes process. The former is characterized through dependence in an unobserved latent Gaussian process, while the later assumes a data driven dependence in the data. While both techniques have been used successfully it remains unclear whether the processes are practically different from one another. In this manuscript, we demonstrate that in many situations, the most common statistic to characterize clustering in a process, Ripley's K function, cannot differentiate between the two processes and should not be used.","PeriodicalId":369368,"journal":{"name":"2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"195 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132239022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Supporting Efficient Assignment of Medical Resources in Cancer Treatments with Simulation-Optimization 模拟优化支持肿瘤治疗医疗资源高效配置
2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715428
L. D. C. Martins, Juliana Castaneda, A. Juan, Abtin Tondar, Laura Calvet, Barry B. Barrios, José Luis Sánchez Garcia
{"title":"Supporting Efficient Assignment of Medical Resources in Cancer Treatments with Simulation-Optimization","authors":"L. D. C. Martins, Juliana Castaneda, A. Juan, Abtin Tondar, Laura Calvet, Barry B. Barrios, José Luis Sánchez Garcia","doi":"10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715428","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715428","url":null,"abstract":"When scheduling multi-period medical treatments for patients with cancer, medical committees have to consider a large amount of data, variables, sanitary and budget constraints, as well as probabilistic elements. In many hospitals worldwide, medical specialists regularly decide the optimal schedule of treatments to be assigned to patients by considering multiple periods and the number of available resources. Hence, decisions have to be made upon the priority of each patient, available treatments, their expected effects, the proper order and intensity in which they should be applied. Consequently, medical experts have to assess many possible combinations and, eventually, choose the one that maximizes the survival chances or expected life quality of patients. To support this complex decision-making process, this paper introduces a novel methodology that combines a biased-randomized heuristic with simulation, to return ‘elite’ alternatives to experts. A simplified yet illustrative case study shows the main concepts and potential of the proposed approach.","PeriodicalId":369368,"journal":{"name":"2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128577838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Backward Simulation for Production Planning – Recent Advances in a Real-World Use-Case 生产计划的逆向模拟——在真实世界用例中的最新进展
2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715490
C. Laroque, Madlene Leißau, W. Scholl, G. Schneider
{"title":"Backward Simulation for Production Planning – Recent Advances in a Real-World Use-Case","authors":"C. Laroque, Madlene Leißau, W. Scholl, G. Schneider","doi":"10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715490","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715490","url":null,"abstract":"The focus on customer orientation as well as on-time production and delivery portray the competitive environment for manufacturing companies in the semiconductor industry. Customer-specific products must be manufactured due to specified lead times and according to promised delivery dates. In this context, questions as to whether the production target is feasible and if all previously promised delivery dates will be met are often answered with backward-oriented planning approaches without taking into consideration any uncertainty or alternatives, that arise during operations. Regarding complex manufacturing systems (here semiconductor with re-entry cycles), these questions can be answered in a more detailed and robust by a discrete event-based simulation (DES) approach used in a backward-oriented manner. Research results show that the taken approach can be applied successfully for the scheduling of customer-specific orders in a real-world setting.","PeriodicalId":369368,"journal":{"name":"2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133573652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Parallel Application Power and Performance Prediction Modeling Using Simulation 使用仿真的并行应用功率和性能预测建模
2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715340
Kishwar Ahmed, Kazutomo Yoshii, S. Tasnim
{"title":"Parallel Application Power and Performance Prediction Modeling Using Simulation","authors":"Kishwar Ahmed, Kazutomo Yoshii, S. Tasnim","doi":"10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715340","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715340","url":null,"abstract":"High performance computing (HPC) system runs compute-intensive parallel applications requiring large number of nodes. An HPC system consists of heterogeneous computer architecture nodes, including CPUs, GPUs, field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), etc. Power capping is a method to improve parallel application performance subject to variable power constraints. In this paper, we propose a parallel application power and performance prediction simulator. We present prediction model to predict application power and performance for unknown power-capping values considering heterogeneous computing architecture. We develop a job scheduling simulator based on parallel discrete-event simulation engine. The simulator includes a power and performance prediction model, as well as a resource allocation model. Based on real-life measurements and trace data, we show the applicability of our proposed prediction model and simulator.","PeriodicalId":369368,"journal":{"name":"2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"106 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134120453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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