ERN: Human Development in Developing Economies (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Dengue Spread Modeling in the Absence of Sufficient Epidemiological Parameters: Comparison of SARIMA and SVM Time Series Models","authors":"J. Co, Jason Allan Tan, Regina Justina Estuar, Kennedy E. Espina","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3086161","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3086161","url":null,"abstract":"Dengue remains to be a major public health concern in the Philippines, claiming hundreds of lives every year. Given limited data for deriving necessary epidemiological parameters in developing deterministic disease models, forecasting as a means in controlling and anticipating outbreaks remains a challenge. In this study, two time series models, namely Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Support Vector Machine, were developed without the requirement for prior epidemiological parameters. Performances of the models in predicting dengue incidences in the Western Visayas Region of the Philippines were compared by measuring the Root Mean Square Error and Mean Average Error. Results showed that the models were both effective in forecasting Dengue incidences for epidemiological surveillance as validated by historical data. SARIMA model yielded average RMSE and MAE scores of 16.8187 and 11.4640, respectively. Meanwhile, SVM model achieved scores of 11.8723 and 7.7369, respectively. With the data and setup used, this study showed that SVM outperformed SARIMA in forecasting Dengue incidences. Furthermore, preliminary investigation of one-month lagged climate variables using Random Forest Regressor’s feature ranking yielded rain intensity and value as top possible dengue incidence climate predictors","PeriodicalId":350026,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Human Development in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126821948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of Late School Entry on Children's Cognitive Development in Rural Northwestern China—Does Preprimary Education Matter?","authors":"Qihui Chen","doi":"10.1002/APP5.192","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/APP5.192","url":null,"abstract":"This article estimates the causal effect of primary school entry age on children's cognitive development in rural northwestern China, using data on nearly 1,800 primary school aged children from the Gansu Survey of Children and Families. Instrumental variable estimates, exploiting the discontinuity structure in children's school entry age around the enrolment cut-off date, indicate that a 1-year delay in school entry reduces children's scores on a cognitive ability test administered when they were aged 9–12 by 0.11–0.16 standard deviations (of the distribution of test scores). The negative late-school-entry effect is significantly larger in villages with no preprimary schools. It also persists as children advance to higher grades. These findings suggest that delayed school entry, even if it may be rural parents' rational response to resource constraints, can be harmful for children's cognitive development in developing areas with underdeveloped preprimary school systems.","PeriodicalId":350026,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Human Development in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"83 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115377372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The ‘Troubling Tradeoffs’ Paradox and a Resolution","authors":"E. Zambrano","doi":"10.1111/roiw.12235","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12235","url":null,"abstract":"Ravallion ([Ravallion, M., 2012a]) argues that the Human Development Index (HDI) embeds questionable tradeoffs between the dimensions used to compute the index. To alleviate these problems he proposes the adoption of one of the indices developed by Chakravarty ([Chakravarty, S., 2003]). In this paper I identify the following paradox: while the Chakravarty indices clearly exhibit more sensible tradeoffs than the HDI, the HDI produces more sensible rankings than the Chakravarty indices. To solve the paradox I identify the axioms behind each methodology responsible for the unintuitive tradeoffs and rankings and illustrate how to develop an index with these questionable axioms removed. This approach can result in methodologies that exhibit more intuitive tradeoffs by design, as it seeks inputs from the public as to what those tradeoffs ought to be, and produces rankings that are more in line with what the HDI wishes to measure: human development and capabilities, as conceptualized by Sen ([Sen, A., 1985]).","PeriodicalId":350026,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Human Development in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125750902","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Generation in Waiting for Jobs and Justice: Young People Not in Education Employment or Training in North Africa","authors":"P. Abbott, A. Teti","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3020728","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3020728","url":null,"abstract":"North Africa has some of the highest youth unemployment rates in the world and young women are at considerably greater risk of unemployment than young men and a majority of whom never make the school-employment transition. However, focusing on just those that are unemployed misses out on those that are neither in education or employment (NEETs). There are three main groups of NEETs: (1) unemployed, available for and actively seeking employment; (2) with drawn from the labour market and full-time careers; (3) not actively seeking work including those queuing for formal sector employment, the long-term sick and disabled and young women barred from employment by cultural norms. Recognition of the importance of focusing on NEETs is evidenced by the Sustainable Development Goals having a specific Goal of reducing the NEET rate. However, accurate and reliable data on NEET rates are not available for all countries and there is a reliance on survey data that is not always available for secondary data analysis. \u0000To understand the school-employment transition given extended periods in education and the time young people take to make the school-employment transition it is important to look at the 15-29 year age group. While young men typically take 2 to 3 years to make the school work transition young women never make it. Young women are at much greater risk of unemployment and of being a NEET than young men, although young women are at greater risk of being out of the labour market and young men unemployed. A majority of male NEETs are unemployed and a majority of female NEETs are full-time carers. Nevertheless, nearly half of unemployed young people are women. Graduates and those living in rural areas are at greater risk of being a NEET than those living in urban areas and with lower educational qualifications. However, numerically there are more NEETs living in urban than rural areas and more with primary school or lower qualifications than those living in rural areas and with secondary and higher educational qualifications. There are differences between countries in the proportion of young people that are NEETs and the precise composition but the broad patterns are common across the countries. \u0000While focusing on NEETs is important for developing policies it is important to recognise that the problem of youth unemployment and activity goes beyond job creation to creating decent jobs. A high proportion of those in employment are in poor quality, low paid and insecure employment. The main reasons for high unemployment and inactivity, at least for young men, is a lack of jobs. Certainly, young people think that lack of jobs followed by the need for wasta (connections) to get a job are the main causes of youth unemployment. For young women the picture is more complicated, certainly a lack of jobs that are considered gender appropriate for young women is an important factor as is the lack of equal opportunity but even more important are traditional cultural a","PeriodicalId":350026,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Human Development in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125306762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impact of Ageing and the Speed of Ageing on the Economic Growth of Least Developed, Emerging and Developed Countries, 1990–2013","authors":"A. Teixeira, N. Renuga Nagarajan, Sandra Silva","doi":"10.1111/rode.12294","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12294","url":null,"abstract":"Studies relating ageing and countries’ economic performance address mostly developed economies. However, extant studies demonstrate that less developed countries (LDC) and emerging economies (EE) are reaching the transition process faster than those from developed regions, which renders the speed of ageing, besides ageing, a critical variable to explore in this context. Comparing system dynamic panel data estimations for 40 LDC, 19 EE and 28 developed countries (DC), between 1990 and 2013, we uncovered that ageing is detrimental to countries’ economic growth, with noticeable nuances depending on countries’ development level. The current level of ageing significantly and negatively impacts on DC's growth but not on that of LDC or EE. For these latter groups, the most relevant issue is the speed of ageing. The current annual growth of old age dependency ratio significantly diminishes EE's growth prospects whereas the lagged annual growth of the ageing index and the old age dependency ratio significantly curtails LDC's growth. Such results emphasize the need for urgent public policies that might mitigate the imbalance in LDCs’ age structure before the speed of ageing leads LDCs to become even much poorer.","PeriodicalId":350026,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Human Development in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122491144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Violence, Development, and Migration Waves: Evidence from Central American Child Migrant Apprehensions","authors":"Michael A. Clemens","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3013379","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3013379","url":null,"abstract":"A recent surge in child migration to the U.S. from Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala has occurred in the context of high rates of regional violence. But little quantitative evidence exists on the causal relationship between violence and international emigration in this or any other region. This paper studies the relationship between violence in the Northern Triangle and child migration to the United States using novel, individual-level, anonymized data on all 178,825 U.S. apprehensions of unaccompanied child migrants from these countries between 2011 and 2016. It finds that one additional homicide per year in the region, sustained over the whole period – that is, a cumulative total of six additional homicides – caused a cumulative total of 3.7 additional unaccompanied child apprehensions in the United States. The explanatory power of short-term increases in violence is roughly equal to the explanatory power of long-term economic characteristics like average income and poverty. Due to diffusion of migration experience and assistance through social networks, violence can cause waves of migration that snowball over time, continuing to rise even when violence levels do not.","PeriodicalId":350026,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Human Development in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129604668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mente Autism Headband - An Assistive Technology for Enhanced Learning","authors":"Sumathi Ravindranath","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3007136","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3007136","url":null,"abstract":"Children with special needs across India cannot benefit fully from a traditional educational program because they have a disability that impairs their ability to participate in a typical classroom environment. Technology can play an important role to facilitate a range of educational activities to meet a variety of needs for students with mild to multiple disabilities both physical such as visual and hearing impairment and intellectual disabilities such as Specific learning disability (SLD) and Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). Students with severe disabilities can become active learners alongside their peers without disabilities in an inclusive classroom with adaptive technology. This case provides an overview of the role of MENTE-autism headband in enhancing social, communicative as well as behavior modifications for a ten-year-old autistic child.","PeriodicalId":350026,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Human Development in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125484778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Poverty in Jordan","authors":"Maha Dawas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3162257","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3162257","url":null,"abstract":"Poverty is a complex phenomenon with diverse economic and social dimensions. The concept of poverty differs according to countries, cultures and times. However, it is agreed that poverty is simply the inability to provide the minimum socially required and desired standard of living. It is the state of financial denial, whose features include low consumption of food in terms of quality and quantity, poor health, low educational level and housing circumstances, denial of the ability to purchase durable goods and other financial assets, and lack of reserve or security to face difficult cases such as illness, handicap, unemployment, disasters and crises. The importance of poverty data and measurement methods lies in raising the issue of poverty to gain support in order to confront this problem, to identify the impacts of state policies, the external influences and other factors. We should explore the situation before proceeding to implement the poverty-related programs, monitor the evolution of poverty - particularly with regard to the effects of policies and programs to alleviate poverty - and prepare reports on poverty measurement and evaluation of its features, reports on achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and the reports on Human Development. The Household Income and Expenditure Survey is considered to be the optimal survey and the main source for measuring poverty indicators according to the international methodology issued by the World Bank. If the definition of poverty is important, then measuring it is no less important, so that poverty alleviation policy makers can identify the priorities and necessary programs to implement these policies and consequently guarantee that these programs are accessible by those who deserve them – i.e. targeting the poor. It is necessary for poverty studies to identify who are the poor, their location, their relative size and the depth and severity of suffering from poverty. This requires poverty criteria and measurement tools on the basis of which the poor are diagnosed, the size of poverty is measured, and the basic characteristics of the poor are identified, in addition to their geographic distribution, their demographic characteristics, their educational levels, their economic activities, and their housing, health and food circumstances. According to the 2010 results, the population of the poor was specified as those whose per capita expenditure is less than the absolute poverty line of JD.814 per year. Thus, the poverty ratio in Jordan was 14.4% for 2010. Also the results show that the poverty gap ratio was 3.6% at the Kingdom’s level. Finally, the severity of poverty at the level of the Kingdom was 1.21%.","PeriodicalId":350026,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Human Development in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115554686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development of an Education Efficiency Index","authors":"Patricia Mcgrath","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2996753","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2996753","url":null,"abstract":"This study developed an Education Efficiency Index for 31 countries, both developed and developing, which can be used by everybody involved and interested in education such as teachers, lecturers and policy makers. The index is used to demonstrate that countries which invest deeply in education do not necessarily achieve the highest results in nationally recognised educational assessments like PISA, TIMSS and PIRLS. When countries do not invest sufficiently in education, the result is low scores in all subject areas compared to other countries. This index is the first of its kind that can be used by everybody interested in efficiency in education, to predict more accurately how students will perform in international assessments. It can also be used by anybody interested in efficiency measures in any area, once they have access to input and output data.","PeriodicalId":350026,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Human Development in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116513250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reframing for Sustainability: Exploring Transformative Power of Benefit Sharing","authors":"Ilkhom Soliev, I. Theesfeld","doi":"10.3390/SU9081486","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/SU9081486","url":null,"abstract":"It is broadly agreed that development needs and effects from changing environment will increase pressure on the ways natural resources are utilized and shared at present. In most parts of the world, resource stress has already reached unprecedented levels setting resource sustainability high on the policy agenda on multiple governance levels. This paper aims to explain how the benefit sharing approach can help reframe the debate for sustainability, its advantages and disadvantages for transforming governance challenges and adapting to increasing resource stress. We bring together fragmented discussions of benefit sharing from three resource domains: water, land, and biodiversity. Both theoretical and empirical examples are provided to aid understanding of how benefit sharing can facilitate adaptive governance processes in complex socio-ecological systems. The findings highlight importance of integrating the long-term perspective when societies move from volumes toward values of shared natural resources, as well as setting environmental conservation and equitable allocation as the top priority for benefit sharing to be sustainable.","PeriodicalId":350026,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Human Development in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"190 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120948570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}