Vienna Yearbook of Population Research最新文献

{"title":"From intentions to births: paths of realisation in a multi-dimensional life course","authors":"M. Testa, Francesco Rampazzo","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2018s177","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2018s177","url":null,"abstract":"The adult lives of women and men are shaped by a wide range of choices and events pertaining to different life domains. In the literature, however, pregnancy intentions are typically studied in isolation from other life course intentions. We investigate the correspondence of birth intentions and outcomes in a life course cross-domain perspective that includes partnership, education, work, and housing. Using longitudinal data from the Generations and Gender Surveys, we examine the matching processes of individuals' birth intentions with subsequent outcomes in Austria, Bulgaria, France, Hungary, and Lithuania. The results show that the intention to change residence is directly correlated with having a child among men and women living in a union, and that the intention to enter a partnership is correlated with childbearing among single men, but not among single women. Furthermore, we find that the intention to change jobs is inversely correlated with an intended childbirth, while it is directly correlated with an unintended childbirth. These findings suggest that the transition paths from birth intentions to birth outcomes should encompass a multi-dimensional life course perspective.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67364936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Summary of ‘Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries’","authors":"N. Gailey, W. Lutz","doi":"10.1553/POPULATIONYEARBOOK2018S221","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/POPULATIONYEARBOOK2018S221","url":null,"abstract":"In 2016, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) agreed to form a partnership, establishing the Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM). The work presented here summarises the first results published by CEPAM. The results reveal clear momentum towards population ageing, and how migration has limited ability to influence the population structure of the EU, especially in the long-run. On the other hand, boosting labour force participation can nullify expected rises in the dependency ratio from population ageing. Globally, the findings show the future of population growth and socio-economic development will be determined by the expansion of education, particularly among girls in Africa. Scenarios of either rapid or stalled development illustrate a large range of possible futures for world population by 2100.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67365290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Welfare state winners and losers in ageing societies","authors":"M. Sánchez-Romero, Gemma Abio, Montserrat Botey, A. Prskawetz, Jože Sambt, Meritxell Solé Juvés, Guadalupe Souto, Lili Vargha, Concepció Patxot","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2019s009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2019s009","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we analyse the impact of population ageing on the sustainability and the intergenerational fairness of public fiscal policy in three selected European countries (Austria, France, and Spain). We use NTA and NTTA data, and introduce these data into a large-scale general equilibrium OLG model with realistic assumptions regarding demographic trends and changes in population structure. The results for sustainability show a sharp increase in the share of public expenditure to GDP for the main programmes of the welfare state. In the three countries analysed, public policies (e.g. education, health care, and pension benefits) redistribute income from younger individuals to older individuals. Our findings indicate that these policies redistribute more resources to older individuals in Spain and fewer resources to older individuals in Austria. We consider the effects of several reform scenarios, including simulations in which the statutory retirement age is raised and the tax base for financing health care expenditures are changed. We also describe the consequences of the population having a fixed level of educational attainment.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67365557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Probabilistic demographic forecasts","authors":"N. Keilman","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2018s025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2018s025","url":null,"abstract":"The Norwegian parliament (“Stortinget”) has decided to buy 52 new JSF jet fighters type F35. When the decision was taken, the price for one F35 was unknown because the plane was still under construction. Therefore, the Stortinget demanded a total cost forecast that had a 50% chance of being accurate. In 2012, the price estimate was NOK 61 billion (approximately EUR 6 billion). In addition, the Stortinget wanted to have a cost estimate that had an 85% chance of being accurate. This estimate was NOK 72 billion; see https://www.regjeringen.no/no/dokumenter/prop73-s-20112012/id676029/sec9, Section 2.4.4. Requesting a probabilistic cost forecast with a 50% or an 85% chance of being accurate is established practice for large (>NOK 500 million) public projects in Norway. Probabilistic forecasts are necessary because the future is uncertain. There are many different possible futures, and some are more likely to come to pass than others. A probabilistic forecast, as opposed to a deterministic forecast, quantifies the uncertainty about future developments. While a probabilistic forecast is not necessarily more accurate than a deterministic forecast, the former contains more information, which is useful for planning purposes. Let us assume that in a specific area, only a deterministic forecast of the relevant variable(s) is available. This may leave room for political decisions to be made. An example is the “shutdown” of the U.S. government in December 1995. President Clinton proposed a seven-year budget plan that would produce a $115 billion deficit over the seven-year period, according to the economic forecasts of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). However, the Office of Management and Budgets (OMB) estimated rather more optimistically that the budget would be balanced at the end of the period. Republican leaders demanded that Clinton propose a plan that would be balanced when using the CBO numbers, rather than the OMB’s; see https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/09/25/hereis-every-previous-government-shutdown-why-they-happened-and-how-theyended/?utm term=.4bb10057f0d9, shutdown # 17.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67365123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Historical patterns of unpaid work in Europe: NTTA results by age and gender","authors":"Ana Šeme, Lili Vargha, Tanja Istenič, Jože Sambt","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2019s121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2019s121","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents an analysis of the age patterns of production, consumption, and net transfers in the form of unpaid work by gender over time. Using the National Time Transfer Accounts (NTTA) methodology, we briefly analyse complete historical results for several European countries. Our main aim is to introduce historical NTTA results, which are freely available to the public for further usage on the AGENTA database. The results of our analysis show that the evolution of age patterns over time differed between men and women, and was highly affected by different demographic trends, as well as by the specific institutional background of each country. Our findings indicate that despite the differences in age patterns over time and across countries, two main characteristics of these patterns did not change: i.e. transfers of unpaid work flowed first from women to men, and second from the working-age population to children and – to a lesser extent – to the elderly.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67365418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Italians’ use of time during the economic crisis: implications for the gender division of labour","authors":"M. Zannella, A. D. Rose","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2019s141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2019s141","url":null,"abstract":"This article builds on time use micro-data for Italy to analyse the evolution of individuals’ time allocation during the 2002–2014 period, with a gender-specific focus. We are particularly interested in comparing changes that occurred between the years prior to and after the onset of the recent economic crisis. We use regression analysis to measure differences between years in the average use of time of men and women for personal care, education, paid work, unpaid work, and leisure over the considered period(s). In order to gain more insight into gender differences in time use behaviours, we further break down unpaid work and free time into detailed activities. We document a decrease of about two hours per week in female housework coupled with a similar increase in male unpaid work over the entire period. However, while signs of this gender convergence were already evident for women in the years before the recession, we do not find any significant change in male unpaid work between 2002 and 2008. It was only after the onset of the economic crisis, and the consequent losses in paid work hours, that men started spending more time on housework and family care.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67365537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Welfare state and the age distribution of public consumption and public transfers in the EU countries","authors":"Agnieszka Chło´n-Domi´nczak, Anita Abramowska-Kmon, I. Kotowska, Wojciech Łątkowski, P. Strzelecki","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2019s071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2019s071","url":null,"abstract":"The article extends the discussion of the welfare state in the literature by presenting a quantitative assessment of the age distribution of public resources. It investigates the differences in the distribution of public transfers between age groups in different European welfare state regimes using the National Transfer Accounts approach. There are two groups of countries that stand out in terms of the age patterns of their public transfers: three Scandinavian countries and Luxembourg have relatively high transfer levels, particularly for the older age group; while some of the Central and Eastern European countries have relatively low transfer levels. In the other European countries, the age profiles of public transfers are close to the EU average. Total public expenditures and revenues in the two distinct groups are changing in response to population ageing: i.e. they are expanding in the Scandinavian countries, and they are contracting in the CEE countries. These developments may lead to the further divergence of these welfare regimes.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67365320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does education matter? – economic dependency ratios by education","authors":"A. Prskawetz, Bernhard Hammer","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2018s111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2018s111","url":null,"abstract":"When studying the economic consequences of changes in the age structure of the population, looking at economic dependency ratios provides us with some descriptive and intuitive initial insights. In this paper, we present two economic dependency ratios. The first ratio is based on economic activity status, and relates the number of dependent individuals to the number of workers. The second dependency ratio relates consumption to total labour income. To build up the second ratio, we rely on the recently set up National Transfer Accounts (NTA) for Austria. Simulations of the employment-based dependency ratio with constant agespecific employment rates indicate that the employment-based dependency ratio will increase from 1.23 in 2010 to 1.88 in 2050, based on a population scenario that assumes low mortality, medium fertility and medium migration in the future. The corresponding values for the NTA-based dependency with constant age-specific labour income and consumption are 1.12 in 2010 and 1.49 in 2050.We then compare how the dependency ratio would di?er if we accounted for the increasing levels of educational attainment. While the education-specific age patterns of economic activities are kept constant as of 2010, the changing educational composition up to 2050 is accounted for. In Austria, higher educated individuals enter and exit the labour market at older ages and have more total labour income than lower educated individuals. Our simulations of the education-specific economic dependency ratios up to 2050, based on the optimistic projection scenario of low mortality and high educational levels in the future, show that the employment-based ratio will increase to 1.68 and the NTA-based dependency ratio will rise to 1.28. These increases are still considerable, but are well below the values found when changes in the educational composition are not taken into account. We can therefore conclude that the trend towards higher levels of educational attainment may help to reduce economic dependency.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67364802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"“Express transitioning” as a special case of the demographic transition","authors":"M. Luy, Bernhard Köppen","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2018s235","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2018s235","url":null,"abstract":"The theory of the ‘(first) demographic transition’ (DT) still has considerable practical relevance in the field of population research. For instance, the DT serves as a conceptual model that underlies the UN’s population projections, and is central to the discussion around the so-called ‘demographic dividend’. Although it was first described 90 years ago, several questions related to the DT remain open or need verification. In particular, there is debate about the question of what the indispensable triggers of the DT are. Assumptions regarding the primary causes include increased education for women and related changes in values, as well as economic development, urbanisation, migration, and the democratisation process. This paper aims to contribute to DT-related research using an innovative research approach. Our study covers all 102 countries with populations that have undergone the DT between 1950 and 2010. Among these countries, we identified 25 populations that passed through this process at an exceptionally high tempo. We refer to this process as ‘express transitioning’ (ET), and seek to identify its main determinants by comparing the ET populations with the populations of the other DT countries. The data we use are taken from the Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer, the UN World Population Prospects, the UN World Urbanization Prospects, the World Bank Group, and the Center for Systematic Peace. Our analysis is based on rather descriptive methods, including ANOVA tests and bivariate correlations. We find that the urbanisation level and the education dynamics are most closely associated with ET, whereas other variables show no significant association with the ET process. ∗Marc Luy (corresponding author), Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, Welthandelsplatz 2/Level 2, 1020 Vienna, Austria E-mail: mail@marcluy.eu Bernhard Köppen, University of Koblenz-Landau, Universitätsstraße 1, 56070 Koblenz, Germany E-mail: koeppen@uni-koblenz.de DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s235 236 ‘Express transitioning’ as a special case of the demographic transition","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67365393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multistate projections of Australia’s Indigenous population: interacting area group and identification status change","authors":"J. Raymer, Yanlin Shi, James O’Donnell, N. Biddle","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2018s135","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2018s135","url":null,"abstract":"This research was funded by the Australian Research Council as part of the \u0000Linkage Project on “Improved Indigenous population projections for policy and planning” (LP130100735).","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41366298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}