Vienna Yearbook of Population Research最新文献_第6页

Analyzing population ageing and intergenerational redistribution: NTA and AGENTA 人口老龄化与代际再分配分析:NTA与AGENTA

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2019s001

Ronald Lee, A. Mason

引用次数: 2

Broadening demographic horizons: demographic studies beyond age and gender 拓宽人口视野:超越年龄和性别的人口研究

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s001

A. Prskawetz, W. Sanderson, S. Scherbov

{"title":"Broadening demographic horizons: demographic studies beyond age and gender","authors":"A. Prskawetz, W. Sanderson, S. Scherbov","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2018s001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2018s001","url":null,"abstract":"Demography is generally defined as the scientific study of changes in the size and the structure of populations. While the meaning of population size is relatively clear, there are many different population structures that can be analyzed. Demography conventionally focuses on age and sex structures, and many of our core models are defined in terms of age and sex. But there are other important dimensions that are the subject of demographic analysis and modelling, such as place of residence, ethnicity/race, marital status, educational attainment, labor force participation status, and health status. Explicitly addressing the changing structures of populations along these broader demographic dimensions make demography more relevant for the rest of the world. Moreover, as these dimensions often represent important sources of population heterogeneity, studying them can improve our understanding of population dynamics in itself. In recent years, there have been exciting developments that have broadened the demographic perspective along these lines of multi-dimensionality, and that have contributed new methods to the demographer’s conventional tool kit. This volume of the Yearbook presents a selected set of papers that in one way or another challenge conventional ideas about how demographic studies are conceived and carried out. These papers cover concepts and developments related to multiregional, multistate, and probabilistic population forecasts; population projections by education and labor force status; and causal models of migration.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67364823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

From intentions to births: paths of realisation in a multi-dimensional life course 从意向到出生:多维度生命历程中的实现路径

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s177

M. Testa, Francesco Rampazzo

{"title":"From intentions to births: paths of realisation in a multi-dimensional life course","authors":"M. Testa, Francesco Rampazzo","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2018s177","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2018s177","url":null,"abstract":"The adult lives of women and men are shaped by a wide range of choices and events pertaining to different life domains. In the literature, however, pregnancy intentions are typically studied in isolation from other life course intentions. We investigate the correspondence of birth intentions and outcomes in a life course cross-domain perspective that includes partnership, education, work, and housing. Using longitudinal data from the Generations and Gender Surveys, we examine the matching processes of individuals' birth intentions with subsequent outcomes in Austria, Bulgaria, France, Hungary, and Lithuania. The results show that the intention to change residence is directly correlated with having a child among men and women living in a union, and that the intention to enter a partnership is correlated with childbearing among single men, but not among single women. Furthermore, we find that the intention to change jobs is inversely correlated with an intended childbirth, while it is directly correlated with an unintended childbirth. These findings suggest that the transition paths from birth intentions to birth outcomes should encompass a multi-dimensional life course perspective.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67364936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 6

Summary of ‘Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries’ 《21世纪人口和人力资本情景:2018年201个国家评估》摘要

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1553/POPULATIONYEARBOOK2018S221

N. Gailey, W. Lutz

引用次数: 1

Welfare state winners and losers in ageing societies 老龄化社会中福利国家的赢家和输家

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2019s009

M. Sánchez-Romero, Gemma Abio, Montserrat Botey, A. Prskawetz, Jože Sambt, Meritxell Solé Juvés, Guadalupe Souto, Lili Vargha, Concepció Patxot

{"title":"Welfare state winners and losers in ageing societies","authors":"M. Sánchez-Romero, Gemma Abio, Montserrat Botey, A. Prskawetz, Jože Sambt, Meritxell Solé Juvés, Guadalupe Souto, Lili Vargha, Concepció Patxot","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2019s009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2019s009","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we analyse the impact of population ageing on the sustainability and the intergenerational fairness of public fiscal policy in three selected European countries (Austria, France, and Spain). We use NTA and NTTA data, and introduce these data into a large-scale general equilibrium OLG model with realistic assumptions regarding demographic trends and changes in population structure. The results for sustainability show a sharp increase in the share of public expenditure to GDP for the main programmes of the welfare state. In the three countries analysed, public policies (e.g. education, health care, and pension benefits) redistribute income from younger individuals to older individuals. Our findings indicate that these policies redistribute more resources to older individuals in Spain and fewer resources to older individuals in Austria. We consider the effects of several reform scenarios, including simulations in which the statutory retirement age is raised and the tax base for financing health care expenditures are changed. We also describe the consequences of the population having a fixed level of educational attainment.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67365557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Probabilistic demographic forecasts 概率人口预测

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s025

N. Keilman

{"title":"Probabilistic demographic forecasts","authors":"N. Keilman","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2018s025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2018s025","url":null,"abstract":"The Norwegian parliament (“Stortinget”) has decided to buy 52 new JSF jet fighters type F35. When the decision was taken, the price for one F35 was unknown because the plane was still under construction. Therefore, the Stortinget demanded a total cost forecast that had a 50% chance of being accurate. In 2012, the price estimate was NOK 61 billion (approximately EUR 6 billion). In addition, the Stortinget wanted to have a cost estimate that had an 85% chance of being accurate. This estimate was NOK 72 billion; see https://www.regjeringen.no/no/dokumenter/prop73-s-20112012/id676029/sec9, Section 2.4.4. Requesting a probabilistic cost forecast with a 50% or an 85% chance of being accurate is established practice for large (>NOK 500 million) public projects in Norway. Probabilistic forecasts are necessary because the future is uncertain. There are many different possible futures, and some are more likely to come to pass than others. A probabilistic forecast, as opposed to a deterministic forecast, quantifies the uncertainty about future developments. While a probabilistic forecast is not necessarily more accurate than a deterministic forecast, the former contains more information, which is useful for planning purposes. Let us assume that in a specific area, only a deterministic forecast of the relevant variable(s) is available. This may leave room for political decisions to be made. An example is the “shutdown” of the U.S. government in December 1995. President Clinton proposed a seven-year budget plan that would produce a $115 billion deficit over the seven-year period, according to the economic forecasts of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). However, the Office of Management and Budgets (OMB) estimated rather more optimistically that the budget would be balanced at the end of the period. Republican leaders demanded that Clinton propose a plan that would be balanced when using the CBO numbers, rather than the OMB’s; see https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/09/25/hereis-every-previous-government-shutdown-why-they-happened-and-how-theyended/?utm term=.4bb10057f0d9, shutdown # 17.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67365123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 7

Historical patterns of unpaid work in Europe: NTTA results by age and gender 欧洲无薪工作的历史模式:按年龄和性别划分的NTTA结果

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2019s121

Ana Šeme, Lili Vargha, Tanja Istenič, Jože Sambt

引用次数: 2

Italians’ use of time during the economic crisis: implications for the gender division of labour 意大利人在经济危机中对时间的利用:对性别劳动分工的影响

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2019s141

M. Zannella, A. D. Rose

{"title":"Italians’ use of time during the economic crisis: implications for the gender division of labour","authors":"M. Zannella, A. D. Rose","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2019s141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2019s141","url":null,"abstract":"This article builds on time use micro-data for Italy to analyse the evolution of individuals’ time allocation during the 2002–2014 period, with a gender-specific focus. We are particularly interested in comparing changes that occurred between the years prior to and after the onset of the recent economic crisis. We use regression analysis to measure differences between years in the average use of time of men and women for personal care, education, paid work, unpaid work, and leisure over the considered period(s). In order to gain more insight into gender differences in time use behaviours, we further break down unpaid work and free time into detailed activities. We document a decrease of about two hours per week in female housework coupled with a similar increase in male unpaid work over the entire period. However, while signs of this gender convergence were already evident for women in the years before the recession, we do not find any significant change in male unpaid work between 2002 and 2008. It was only after the onset of the economic crisis, and the consequent losses in paid work hours, that men started spending more time on housework and family care.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67365537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Welfare state and the age distribution of public consumption and public transfers in the EU countries 福利国家与欧盟国家公共消费和公共转移的年龄分布

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2019s071

Agnieszka Chło´n-Domi´nczak, Anita Abramowska-Kmon, I. Kotowska, Wojciech Łątkowski, P. Strzelecki

{"title":"Welfare state and the age distribution of public consumption and public transfers in the EU countries","authors":"Agnieszka Chło´n-Domi´nczak, Anita Abramowska-Kmon, I. Kotowska, Wojciech Łątkowski, P. Strzelecki","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2019s071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2019s071","url":null,"abstract":"The article extends the discussion of the welfare state in the literature by presenting a quantitative assessment of the age distribution of public resources. It investigates the differences in the distribution of public transfers between age groups in different European welfare state regimes using the National Transfer Accounts approach. There are two groups of countries that stand out in terms of the age patterns of their public transfers: three Scandinavian countries and Luxembourg have relatively high transfer levels, particularly for the older age group; while some of the Central and Eastern European countries have relatively low transfer levels. In the other European countries, the age profiles of public transfers are close to the EU average. Total public expenditures and revenues in the two distinct groups are changing in response to population ageing: i.e. they are expanding in the Scandinavian countries, and they are contracting in the CEE countries. These developments may lead to the further divergence of these welfare regimes.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67365320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Does education matter? – economic dependency ratios by education 教育重要吗?-按教育划分的经济抚养比

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s111

A. Prskawetz, Bernhard Hammer

{"title":"Does education matter? – economic dependency ratios by education","authors":"A. Prskawetz, Bernhard Hammer","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2018s111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2018s111","url":null,"abstract":"When studying the economic consequences of changes in the age structure of the population, looking at economic dependency ratios provides us with some descriptive and intuitive initial insights. In this paper, we present two economic dependency ratios. The first ratio is based on economic activity status, and relates the number of dependent individuals to the number of workers. The second dependency ratio relates consumption to total labour income. To build up the second ratio, we rely on the recently set up National Transfer Accounts (NTA) for Austria. Simulations of the employment-based dependency ratio with constant agespecific employment rates indicate that the employment-based dependency ratio will increase from 1.23 in 2010 to 1.88 in 2050, based on a population scenario that assumes low mortality, medium fertility and medium migration in the future. The corresponding values for the NTA-based dependency with constant age-specific labour income and consumption are 1.12 in 2010 and 1.49 in 2050.We then compare how the dependency ratio would di?er if we accounted for the increasing levels of educational attainment. While the education-specific age patterns of economic activities are kept constant as of 2010, the changing educational composition up to 2050 is accounted for. In Austria, higher educated individuals enter and exit the labour market at older ages and have more total labour income than lower educated individuals. Our simulations of the education-specific economic dependency ratios up to 2050, based on the optimistic projection scenario of low mortality and high educational levels in the future, show that the employment-based ratio will increase to 1.68 and the NTA-based dependency ratio will rise to 1.28. These increases are still considerable, but are well below the values found when changes in the educational composition are not taken into account. We can therefore conclude that the trend towards higher levels of educational attainment may help to reduce economic dependency.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":"230 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67364802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 7