Vienna Yearbook of Population Research最新文献

{"title":"Towards causal forecasting of international migration","authors":"F. Willekens","doi":"10.1553/POPULATIONYEARBOOK2018S199","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/POPULATIONYEARBOOK2018S199","url":null,"abstract":"International migration is dicult to predict because of uncertainties. The identification of sources of uncertainty and the measurement and modelling of uncertainties are necessary, but they are not sucient. Uncertainties should be reduced by accounting for the heterogeneity of migrants, the reasons why some people leave their country while most stay, and the causal mechanisms that lead to those choices. International migration takes place within a context of globalisation, technological change, growing interest in migration governance, and the emergence of a migration industry. Young people are more likely than older people to respond to these contextual factors, as they are better informed, have greater self-ecacy, and are more likely to have a social network abroad than previous generations. My aim in this paper is to present ideas for the causal forecasting of migration. Wolfgang Lutz’s demographic theory of socioeconomic change is a good point of departure. The cohort-replacement mechanism, which is central to Lutz’s theory, is extended to account for cohort heterogeneity, life-cycle transitions, and learning. I close the paper by concluding that the time has come to explore the causal mechanisms underlying migration, and to make optimal use of that knowledge to improve migration forecasts.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41309777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Education and demography: a review of world population and human capital in the 21st century","authors":"P. Rees","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2018s037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2018s037","url":null,"abstract":"This discussion piece is an extended review of the work on projecting the world’s population and human capital by country conducted by the Wittgenstein Centre (WIC). The project was led by Wolfgang Lutz, and its outcomes were published by Oxford University Press in a book that appeared in 2014. Using statistics from the book and elsewhere, this article starts with an overview of the development of educational attainment. The role that education plays in the WIC2014 model is identified. Definitions of ‘multi-dimensional’, ‘multi-state’, and ‘micro-simulation’ are offered, and are used to characterise the model. A thumbnail sketch of the main methodsusedintheprojectionsisgiven.Thefinalsectionsetsoutapossibleagenda for the future development of the WIC2014 model. This review is intended to help readers tackle the more than 1,000 pages of argument and analysis in the book, which represents a major contribution to demographic research in the 21st century.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45592087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The end of population aging in high-income countries","authors":"W. Sanderson, S. Scherbov, P. Gerland","doi":"10.1553/POPULATIONYEARBOOK2018S163","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/POPULATIONYEARBOOK2018S163","url":null,"abstract":"Will the population of today's high-income countries continue to age throughout the remainder of the century? We answer this question by combining two methodologies, Bayesian hierarchical probabilistic population forecasting and the use of prospective ages, which are chronological ages adjusted for changes in life expectancy. We distinguish two variants of measures of aging: those that depend on fixed chronological ages and those that use prospective ages. Conventional measures do not, for example, distinguish between 65-year-olds in 2000 and 65- year-olds in 2100. In making forecasts of population aging over long periods of time, ignoring changes in the characteristics of people can lead to misleading results. It is preferable to use measures based on prospective ages in which expected changes in life expectancy are taken into account. We present probabilistic forecasts of population aging that use conventional and prospective measures for high-income countries as a group. The probabilistic forecasts based on conventional measures of aging show that the probability that aging will continue throughout the century is essentially one. In contrast, the probabilistic forecasts based on prospective measures of population aging show that population aging will almost certainly come to end well before the end of the century. Using prospective measures of population aging, we show that aging in high-income countries is likely a transitory phenomenon.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67364822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"European National (Time) Transfer Accounts","authors":"Tanja Istenič, Bernhard Hammer, A. Prskawetz","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2019s201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2019s201","url":null,"abstract":"The goal of the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) project is to improve our understanding of the economic consequences of demographic changes by introducing demographic information into the System of National Accounts (SNA). As part of the AGENTA research project (http://www.agenta-project.eu/), NTA datasets were compiled for 25 European countries and the base year 2010. The aim of this paper is to introduce the general concept of NTA, and to provide an overview of the European NTA data and the data explorer at www.wittgensteincentre.org/ntadata. Age is one of the main determinants of individuals’ economic behaviour. In general, people experience three different economic phases in their life course. Working-age individuals are typically able to finance their own consumption by producing more than they consume. In contrast, at the youngest and oldest ages, people’s consumption usually exceeds their labour income (Lee and Mason 2011b). The gap between consumption and labour income can be financed by age reallocations in the form of private transfers (e.g., transfers from parents to children), public transfers (e.g., publicly financed pensions and education), or assetbased reallocations resulting from participation in capital and financial markets (Mason et al. 2006). In contemporary societies, periods of economic dependency are gradually being extended as the young are spending more time in education and the elderly are living longer. Measuring age reallocations is useful for understanding the intergenerational economy and the organisation of intergenerational support; i.e., how the gap between consumption and labour income is financed in childhood and in old","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67365634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Are there principles of demography? A search for unifying (and hegemonic) themes","authors":"W. Butz","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2018s009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2018s009","url":null,"abstract":"The principles underlying a field of study can provide both internal coherence and external influence. First, in our context of a scientific discipline, principles can lend coherence by explicating how the discipline’s various aspects and pieces fit together, and how their total becomes greater than the sum of the parts. Second, a discipline’s principles can suggest how its perspectives and findings might contribute to other disciplines, and, even more broadly, to policy analysis and civil discourse. The exporting of hegemony across scientific fields and beyond—a process that can be more aggressive and less friendly than the usual multidisciplinary pursuits—can awaken new passions in adjacent academic fields. If there are principles of demography that already reflect and provide coherence within our field, is it then possible that the explicit elucidation or even the promotion of these principles abroad adds to the prominence of our science in the academic and policy communities, while enriching other approaches to studying human behavior? Anthropology, economics, geography, psychology, and sociology might be open to the hegemony of demographic perspectives, models, and tools, as unified under a set of principles. The philosophy and methodology of science, in which my topic modestly sits, has interested Wolfgang Lutz throughout his career. Drawing on his strong academic grounding in history and philosophy, he has recently made the fruitful proposal of partitioning scientific disciplines into identity sciences and intervention sciences, and causality into strong causality and functional causality (Lutz et al. 2017, 17– 19). The identity sciences, which are generally the humanities, ask “Who are we?” and “Where do we come from?” The intervention sciences ask “How do the most important forces of change in a social system function, so as to predict the future evolution of the system?”","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67364969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Survival inequalities and redistribution in the Italian pension system","authors":"G. Caselli, R. Lipsi","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2018s083","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2018s083","url":null,"abstract":"The public pension system in Italy is a defined contribution scheme based on the principle of actuarial fairness. The pension annuity is calculated starting from capitalised value and the Legislated Conversion Factors (LCFs) for each retirement age. The demographic parameters used by legislators in computing the LCFs are the survival probabilities of an average Italian, irrespective of gender or any characteristic except age. The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of the differences in survival between men and women, and between individuals with different educational levels, on the calculation of the pension annuity, starting from the specific Conversion Factors (CFs). The gap between the LCFs and the factors obtained by allowing for differential survival across gender and socio-demographic groups (CFs) gives us a means of making a quantitative assessment of the implicit redistributive impacts of the annuity redistribution from individuals with a lower life expectancy to individuals with a higher life expectancy. 1 Italian pension reform: an introduction Since the mid-1970s, the demographic behaviour of Italians has undergone profound changes that have modified the population dynamics of the country both directly and indirectly, and have thus had significant consequences for various aspects of social and economic life in Italy. The slow but inexorable shift in the demographic profile of Italy has been caused by declining fertility on the one hand, and increasing survival on the other. It is generally understood that when the ∗ Graziella Caselli (corresponding author), Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Statistical Sciences, Viale Regina Elena 295, 00161, Rome, Italy Email: graziella.caselli@uniroma1.it Rosa Maria Lipsi, Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), Italy The views and opinions expressed in this paper are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbookXXXX 2 Survival inequalities and redistribution in the Italian pension system younger cohorts are constantly shrinking even as the older cohorts are expanding, the population will age. In 2016, Italy and Germany were the European countries with the highest shares of the population aged 65 or older: 21.9 per cent for Italy and 21.2 per cent for Germany. This figure for Italy seems even more significant if we consider that it represents a population of almost 14 million, up from four million in 1951 (eight per cent of the total population). Although demographers had been issuing detailed warnings of this demographic shift since the late 1970s (Vitali 1976; Golini and Pinnelli 1983; Golini 1987), politicians were slow to realise that given the speed at which the ageing process was advancing, this shift would have an unprecedented impact on the country’s public expenditures starting around the turn of the century. It was especially difficult to persuade politicians","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67365169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Transfers of informal care time in the United States: the role of demographic differentials in intergenerational flows by age, sex, and racial and national background.","authors":"Denys Dukhovnov,&nbsp;Emilio Zagheni","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2019s163","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2019s163","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Recent work based on the American Time Use Survey (2011-2013) provided estimates of matrices of \"who provides care to whom\" by age and sex within care activities in the U.S. In this paper, we build on that line of research by evaluating the strength of race, ethnicity, and national origin as proxy indicators of cultural propensities to engage in informal care. Our results point to several key differences and similarities between groups based on their characteristics. For example, we find that compared to other groups, native-born African American men exhibit the lowest child care participation and transfer rates, whereas foreign-born Hispanics of any race have significantly higher rates of daily participation in child care. Moreover, we find that the propensity to provide adult care is largely dependent on socio-economic characteristics and household structure. However, our models indicate that neither race/ethnicity nor nativity are strong predictors of the observed differences when household composition and socio-economic factors are taken into account. Thus, we believe that more complex cultural factors are at play. As an illustrative example of the consequences of demographic change, we introduce the care support ratio (CSR), which is a measure of macro-level dependency for non-market transfers. The application of the CSR indicates that future informal care time deficits may result from the growing care needs of the ageing population.</p>","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8152523/pdf/nihms-1554719.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39040906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can Taylor’s law of fluctuation scaling and its relatives help demographers select more plausible multi-regional population forecasts?","authors":"J. Cohen, H. Brunborg, Meng Xu","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2018s015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2018s015","url":null,"abstract":"Which of several alternative population forecasts is the “best” or the most plausible? In published work summarized here, we use Taylor’s law (TL) and its quadratic generalization to select the best among six alternative projections (by Statistics Norway) of Norwegian county population density. We consider two time scales: long term (1978–2010 as the historical basis for projections of 2011–2040) and short term (2006–2010 as the historical basis for projections of 2011–2015). We find that the short-term projections selected as “best” by TL are more closely aligned than the four other projections with the recent county density data, and reflect the current high rate of international net immigration to Norway. Our approach needs to be further tested using other data and demographic forecasts.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67365051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analyzing population ageing and intergenerational redistribution: NTA and AGENTA","authors":"Ronald Lee, A. Mason","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2019s001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2019s001","url":null,"abstract":"This special issue of the Vienna Yearbook contains chapters derived from the EUfunded AGENTA project, which uses and extends the methods of the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) project to shed light on the ways in which the families and governments of Europe draw on the earnings of the working-age population to support both children and the elderly. Before turning to the fascinating studies included in this Yearbook, we will provide some context regarding support systems, global demographic change, NTA, and AGENTA.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67365456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Broadening demographic horizons: demographic studies beyond age and gender","authors":"A. Prskawetz, W. Sanderson, S. Scherbov","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2018s001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2018s001","url":null,"abstract":"Demography is generally defined as the scientific study of changes in the size and the structure of populations. While the meaning of population size is relatively clear, there are many different population structures that can be analyzed. Demography conventionally focuses on age and sex structures, and many of our core models are defined in terms of age and sex. But there are other important dimensions that are the subject of demographic analysis and modelling, such as place of residence, ethnicity/race, marital status, educational attainment, labor force participation status, and health status. Explicitly addressing the changing structures of populations along these broader demographic dimensions make demography more relevant for the rest of the world. Moreover, as these dimensions often represent important sources of population heterogeneity, studying them can improve our understanding of population dynamics in itself. In recent years, there have been exciting developments that have broadened the demographic perspective along these lines of multi-dimensionality, and that have contributed new methods to the demographer’s conventional tool kit. This volume of the Yearbook presents a selected set of papers that in one way or another challenge conventional ideas about how demographic studies are conceived and carried out. These papers cover concepts and developments related to multiregional, multistate, and probabilistic population forecasts; population projections by education and labor force status; and causal models of migration.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67364823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}