教育与人口:21世纪世界人口与人力资本回顾

Q3 Social Sciences

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI:10.1553/populationyearbook2018s037

P. Rees

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引用次数: 41

摘要

这篇讨论文章是对维特根斯坦中心(WIC)按国家预测世界人口和人力资本工作的扩展审查。该项目由沃尔夫冈·卢茨(Wolfgang Lutz)领导，其成果于2014年由牛津大学出版社出版。本文利用书中和其他地方的统计数据，概述了教育成就的发展。确定了教育在WIC2014模型中所扮演的角色。给出了“多维”、“多状态”和“微观模拟”的定义，并用于描述模型的特征。本文给出了投影中主要方法的简略描述。最后部分为WIC2014模型的未来发展设定了可能的议程。这篇评论旨在帮助读者理解书中1000多页的论证和分析，这是对21世纪人口研究的重大贡献。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Education and demography: a review of world population and human capital in the 21st century

This discussion piece is an extended review of the work on projecting the world’s population and human capital by country conducted by the Wittgenstein Centre (WIC). The project was led by Wolfgang Lutz, and its outcomes were published by Oxford University Press in a book that appeared in 2014. Using statistics from the book and elsewhere, this article starts with an overview of the development of educational attainment. The role that education plays in the WIC2014 model is identiﬁed. Deﬁnitions of ‘multi-dimensional’, ‘multi-state’, and ‘micro-simulation’ are oﬀered, and are used to characterise the model. A thumbnail sketch of the main methodsusedintheprojectionsisgiven.Theﬁnalsectionsetsoutapossibleagenda for the future development of the WIC2014 model. This review is intended to help readers tackle the more than 1,000 pages of argument and analysis in the book, which represents a major contribution to demographic research in the 21st century.

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来源期刊

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Social Sciences-Demography

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： In Europe there is currently an increasing public awareness of the importance that demographic trends have in reshaping our societies. Concerns about possible negative consequences of population aging seem to be the major force behind this new interest in demographic research. Demographers have been pointing out the fundamental change in the age composition of European populations and its potentially serious implications for social security schemes for more than two decades but it is only now that the expected retirement of the baby boom generation has come close enough in time to appear on the radar screen of social security planners and political decision makers to be considered a real challenge and not just an academic exercise.