Vienna Yearbook of Population Research最新文献

Temperatures, conflict and forced migration in West Asia and North Africa 西亚和北非的气温、冲突和被迫迁徙

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2024-06-12 DOI: 10.1553/p-4mep-8zge

Jasmin Abdel Ghany

{"title":"Temperatures, conflict and forced migration in West Asia and North Africa","authors":"Jasmin Abdel Ghany","doi":"10.1553/p-4mep-8zge","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/p-4mep-8zge","url":null,"abstract":"The region of West Asia and North Africa has not only been termed a “hotspot” region for the adverse impact of climate change in light of extreme temperature increases. Several countries have also experienced protracted humanitarian crises and civil wars in the last two decades, such as those in Syria, Yemen and Libya. The vulnerability of these populations makes advancing our understanding of how climate change may impact migration patterns in the region a matter of urgency. This study examines whether extreme temperatures influence bilateral forced migration between countries within West Asia and North Africa through their potential to increase armed conflict. The findings suggest that extreme temperatures in two consecutive years, defined as the upper 10% of the country-specific annual mean temperature distribution, cumulatively increase the probability of armed conflict by 42.5% in the following year ( p = 0.07). Armed conflict is strongly associated with an increase in asylum flows, by 45.8 percentage points ( p = 0.00), and there is a weak indication that conflict mediates the relationship between extreme heat and asylum flows. This explorative study is the first to apply a regional displacement perspective to the climate-conflict-migration nexus in West Asia and North Africa. The results underline the importance of taking contextual factors into account in the analysis of environmental migration.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141354431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Urban–rural differences in mortality during the 2010 heatwave in European Russia 2010 年欧洲俄罗斯热浪期间死亡率的城乡差异

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2024-05-22 DOI: 10.1553/p-42de-zc5p

Mikhail Maksimenko, Sergey Timonin, Natalia Shartova, Mikhail Varentsov

{"title":"Urban–rural differences in mortality during the 2010 heatwave in European Russia","authors":"Mikhail Maksimenko, Sergey Timonin, Natalia Shartova, Mikhail Varentsov","doi":"10.1553/p-42de-zc5p","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/p-42de-zc5p","url":null,"abstract":"The 2010 summer heatwave in European Russia led to a notable increase in mortality due to extreme heat and associated wildfires. However, the diverse settlement patterns and the uneven impact of the heatwave in European Russia have left many geographical aspects of this event unexplored. For instance, the variations in excess mortality between major cities and smaller urban and rural areas remain unclear. According to our findings, during the 27–33 weeks of 2010, the total number of excess deaths was estimated at 56.0, with nearly 20% of them concentrated in Moscow. The age-standardized mortality rate in cities with more than one million inhabitants exceeded the expected values by 52% during the heatwave, while the excess mortality rate in rural areas was only 17%. The geographical area experiencing the highest excess mortality rate aligned with the zone of the greatest heatwave extent, as indicated by deviations from the climatic norm in temperatures and other measures of thermal stress. The risk of death from this increase in thermal stress more accurately represented by the Heat Index was found to be substantially higher in larger cities of 500,000 or more inhabitants, with the risk of death being especially high in major cities. Notably, air pollution was not found to be a significant modifier of excess mortality. It is important to note that the results obtained may have been influenced by the use of raster-based data from climate reanalysis, which may be expected to underrepresent local urban heat island effects, and consequently to underestimate risk exposure in urban areas.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141113096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Relevance of population mobility for climate change mitigation 人口流动与减缓气候变化的相关性

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.1553/p-ed4a-5n8p

Susana B. Adamo

引用次数: 0

Extreme temperatures and morbidity in old age in Europe 极端气温与欧洲老年人的发病率

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.1553/p-8z36-6mmj

Francesca Zanasi, Risto Conte Keivabu

{"title":"Extreme temperatures and morbidity in old age in Europe","authors":"Francesca Zanasi, Risto Conte Keivabu","doi":"10.1553/p-8z36-6mmj","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/p-8z36-6mmj","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the relationship between extreme temperatures and health among older adults is of paramount importance for public health in ageing societies. This study aims to enhance our understanding of the impact of extreme temperatures on morbidity, i.e. the risk of being hospitalised, using medications for heart conditions, and experiencing the onset of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) among older adults in Europe (65+ years old) using five waves from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE, 2004–2015). It also explores heterogeneity in this impact depending on an array of factors that affect exposure and vulnerability to climate, including geographical location, gender, age, educational level, having a partner/child and living in an urban or a rural area. Results from individual fixed-effects models show that extremely cold temperatures increase the risk of being hospitalised and suffering from CVDs, while heat exposure has no noteworthy effect. Broken down by geographical location, the results indicate that one additional extremely cold day influences the risk of hospitalisation in the coldest and the warmest European regions, while extreme heat influences this risk in the warmest European regions. Finally, the oldest old and low educated individuals appear to be the most vulnerable social groups. The study concludes by discussing the advantages and the limitations of using survey data to study climate and health, and the strategies suggested by the relevant literature to prevent temperature-related illness.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140743337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate, conflict and internal migration in Colombia 哥伦比亚的气候、冲突和国内移徙

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.1553/p-8kaj-g8kb

Katharina Fenz, Thomas Mitterling, Jesús Crespo Cuaresma, Isabell Roitner-Fransecky

引用次数: 0

Projecting environmental impacts with varying population, affluence and technology using IPAT – Climate change and land use scenarios 利用 IPAT 预测不同人口、富裕程度和技术对环境的影响 - 气候变化和土地利用方案

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1553/p-n5en-z38a

E. Engström, Martin Kolk

{"title":"Projecting environmental impacts with varying population, affluence and technology using IPAT – Climate change and land use scenarios","authors":"E. Engström, Martin Kolk","doi":"10.1553/p-n5en-z38a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/p-n5en-z38a","url":null,"abstract":"We theoretically explore the interrelations between population (P), affluence (A) and technology (T) for various environmental impacts (I ) using IPAT-type modelling. To illustrate the differences across environmental dimensions, climate and land use impacts are modelled. We use middle-of-the-road projections for population and per capita income and different forecasting methods for technology, including extrapolations of historical trends, models based on stochastic IPAT (STIRPAT) and predictions in the literature. The different approaches are compared within the IPAT framework. We also explore the consequences of alternative trajectories for P, A and T, and we discuss the implications of these trajectories for reaching global goals based on our modelling. The findings are analysed in light of three theories in environmental sociology, each of which places a different emphasis on the different components of IPAT. We argue that the large amount of technological mitigation assumed in many forecasts makes affluence and population relatively irrelevant for climate change. However, we also consider it likely that both factors will be determinants of land use impact in the 21st century.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139686304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impact of urban outdoor thermal conditions on selected hospital admissions in Novi Sad, Serbia 城市室外热量条件对塞尔维亚诺维萨德部分入院人数的影响

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1553/p-m53z-m2eh

Daniela Arsenović, S. Savić, D. Milošević, Z. Lužanin, Milena Kojić, Ivana Radić, S. Harhaji, M. Arsić

{"title":"Impact of urban outdoor thermal conditions on selected hospital admissions in Novi Sad, Serbia","authors":"Daniela Arsenović, S. Savić, D. Milošević, Z. Lužanin, Milena Kojić, Ivana Radić, S. Harhaji, M. Arsić","doi":"10.1553/p-m53z-m2eh","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/p-m53z-m2eh","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change has been recognized as an important issue in public health, with particular concerns being raised about the effects of heat and cold extremes on health, and about seasonal changes over the year and their associations with increased mortality and hospitalizations. This paper explored the relationship between physiological equivalent temperature (PET) and cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions in Novi Sad (Serbia) with the aim of assessing the impact of urban outdoor thermal conditions on health. Analysis was performed using daily data on cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions by gender covering the period from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2017. For the same period, PET was calculated using data from two urban meteorological network stations. The association between PET and hospital admissions was examined using a generalized additive model (GAM) combined with a distributed lag non-linearmodel (DLNM). The study found a non-linear relationship between PET and cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions, with a larger impact during the cold period of the year. The findings also indicated that under conditions of high PET, the cumulative RR increased for cardiovascular admissions (for males) and respiratory admissions (for females). People with pre-existing respiratory diseases were found to be more vulnerable under conditions of extremely low and moderately low PET, with a greater effect at lag 0–14 days. By contrast, for people with cardiovascular diseases, low PET was linked to a decrease in hospital admissions, with the risk being lowest at lag 0 and 0–3 days.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139887349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Temperature- and seasonality-related infectious disease mortality among infants: A retrospective time-series study of Sweden, 1868–1892 与气温和季节相关的婴儿传染病死亡率：1868-1892 年瑞典时间序列回顾性研究

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1553/p-33g4-pgab

J. Junkka, Maria Hiltunen

{"title":"Temperature- and seasonality-related infectious disease mortality among infants: A retrospective time-series study of Sweden, 1868–1892","authors":"J. Junkka, Maria Hiltunen","doi":"10.1553/p-33g4-pgab","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/p-33g4-pgab","url":null,"abstract":"Climate conditions, such as ambient temperatures, play a crucial role in infants' vulnerability to infectious diseases. However, little is known about how climate conditions, such as temperatures and seasonality, affect infectious disease mortality among infants in high mortality settings. The aim of our study was to investigate the association between cause-specific infant mortality and ambient temperatures and seasonality. We applied a retrospective study design using parish register data from Sweden covering the 1868–1892 period in combination with daily temperature data. Mortality due to water- and foodborne diseases, airborne infectious diseases and other causes was modelled as a function of temperature exposure in the previous 14 days using distributed lagged non-linear models. We found that airborne infectious diseasemortality was not related to cold temperatures, but rather to seasonality. The summer peaks in mortality due to water- and foodborne infections were associated with high temperatures, and not with seasonality. The increased vulnerability of infants to infectious diseases at high temperatures is a significant future risk, given that global temperatures are projected to rise in the coming decades.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139684099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impact of urban outdoor thermal conditions on selected hospital admissions in Novi Sad, Serbia 城市室外热量条件对塞尔维亚诺维萨德部分入院人数的影响

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1553/p-m53z-m2eh

Daniela Arsenović, S. Savić, D. Milošević, Z. Lužanin, Milena Kojić, Ivana Radić, S. Harhaji, M. Arsić

{"title":"Impact of urban outdoor thermal conditions on selected hospital admissions in Novi Sad, Serbia","authors":"Daniela Arsenović, S. Savić, D. Milošević, Z. Lužanin, Milena Kojić, Ivana Radić, S. Harhaji, M. Arsić","doi":"10.1553/p-m53z-m2eh","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/p-m53z-m2eh","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change has been recognized as an important issue in public health, with particular concerns being raised about the effects of heat and cold extremes on health, and about seasonal changes over the year and their associations with increased mortality and hospitalizations. This paper explored the relationship between physiological equivalent temperature (PET) and cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions in Novi Sad (Serbia) with the aim of assessing the impact of urban outdoor thermal conditions on health. Analysis was performed using daily data on cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions by gender covering the period from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2017. For the same period, PET was calculated using data from two urban meteorological network stations. The association between PET and hospital admissions was examined using a generalized additive model (GAM) combined with a distributed lag non-linearmodel (DLNM). The study found a non-linear relationship between PET and cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions, with a larger impact during the cold period of the year. The findings also indicated that under conditions of high PET, the cumulative RR increased for cardiovascular admissions (for males) and respiratory admissions (for females). People with pre-existing respiratory diseases were found to be more vulnerable under conditions of extremely low and moderately low PET, with a greater effect at lag 0–14 days. By contrast, for people with cardiovascular diseases, low PET was linked to a decrease in hospital admissions, with the risk being lowest at lag 0 and 0–3 days.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139827271","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Low, but not too low, fertility can represent a positive development 生育率低，但不是太低，可以代表一种积极的发展

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2023-08-09 DOI: 10.1553/p-cmbb-hheg

V. Skirbekk

{"title":"Low, but not too low, fertility can represent a positive development","authors":"V. Skirbekk","doi":"10.1553/p-cmbb-hheg","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/p-cmbb-hheg","url":null,"abstract":"The public discourse about the ongoing fertility decline and the spread of low fertility, and the consequences thereof, is often unscientific and emotionally charged. As I argue in my book, Decline and Prosper! (Skirbekk, 2022), low fertility per se does not pose a major societal threat – and it is also accompanied by a number of benefits. In this article, I summarize my main points: namely, that i) the negative consequences of low fertility are often exaggerated and based on false assumptions; ii) low fertility is driven by many different, interacting factors, and is the byproduct or the cause of many positive societal developments; iii) low fertility is here to stay; and iv) societies urgently need to adapt to a world with fewer children. Fertility decline is self-perpetuating: once lowfertility has become the normin one generation, the fertility level is much less likely to increase in subsequent generations. At the same time, no plausible level of migration would be enough to meaningfully alter population aging in the long term. If, however, societies make the right choices, low fertility can enable humans to live more sustainably well into the future, and can stimulate further positive developments in the human condition.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41559377","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0