Vienna Yearbook of Population Research最新文献

{"title":"Attending to history in climate change-demography research.","authors":"Emily Klancher Merchant, Kathryn Grace","doi":"10.1553/p-hzdz-jega","DOIUrl":"10.1553/p-hzdz-jega","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Climate change is among the most urgent challenges of our time. While often considered a problem for the natural and physical sciences, the humanities and social sciences have made equally important interventions into research on the reciprocal relationship between humans and our climate. Because demography occupies the intersection of the natural and social sciences, and because it deals specifically with rates of change in social and natural processes, we believe it can make valuable contributions to the pressing imperatives of understanding and addressing climate change and mitigating the harms it is already visiting on the world's most vulnerable people. We also believe that climate change may afford demographers an opportunity to expand our capacity to think about time and space at finer scales, and to examine the relationships among the core demographic processes - mortality, fertility and migration - which have typically been considered in isolation from one another. Yet responsibly leveraging climate change to advance demography, and leveraging demography to advance climate science and policy, require a cognizance of history that will assist demographers and those who use our analyses in avoiding the replication of past harms and, we hope, the invention of new ones. Understanding the history of demography and of population-environment thought more broadly can help us challenge assumptions that have not served science or policy well in the past - such as the assumption that larger or faster-growing populations necessarily put more pressure on the environment, independent of structural conditions - and consider alternative theoretical framings that might lead to better scientific models and policy solutions.</p>","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":"2024 VYPR 2024","pages":"25-35"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11781605/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143068480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change and population: Demographic perspectives on the 21st century's defining challenge.","authors":"Roman Hoffmann, Liliana Andriano, Erich Striessnig, Tobias Rüttenauer, Marion Borderon, Kathryn Grace","doi":"10.1553/p-nfjc-z82h","DOIUrl":"10.1553/p-nfjc-z82h","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Climate change represents one of the most pressing challenges for societies in the 21st century. This special issue of the Vienna Yearbook of Population Research (VYPR) brings together interdisciplinary contributions from 51 authors to explore the demographic dimensions of climate change. In many ways, human populations are at the center of the current climate crisis. On the one hand, anthropogenic forces are responsible for the unprecedented changes in the climate system that are currently being observed. It is the burning of fossil fuels that has significantly increased greenhouse gas concentrations, driving global warming and altering natural climate patterns. On the other hand, human populations are also profoundly affected by these changes, as they are facing increased risks from extreme weather events, rising sea levels and shifting ecosystems, which, in turn, impact livelihoods, food and water security, and health and well-being. This special issue provides a comprehensive overview of both the role of population as a driving force of climate change and the significance of its impacts in the areas of health and mortality, migration, and fertility and reproductive behaviors. In addition to 10 research articles, the special issue features seven debate articles by leading scholars, who provide reflections on the climate-population nexus and the role of demographic science in climate change mitigation. Demography offers a wide range of perspectives and methodological tools to understand and address the climate-population nexus, including in the areas of health and population data, mathematical and statistical modeling, and projections. We advocate for a holistic research perspective that incorporates issues related to increasing climate risks into demographic thinking, and vice versa. A thorough understanding of the intricate relationship between populations, population dynamics and climate change is necessary for the development of effective and equitable mitigation and adaptation strategies that address both global and local challenges over time.</p>","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":"22 ","pages":"1-22"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12345995/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144849270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Low, but not too low, fertility can represent a positive development","authors":"V. Skirbekk","doi":"10.1553/p-cmbb-hheg","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/p-cmbb-hheg","url":null,"abstract":"The public discourse about the ongoing fertility decline and the spread of low fertility, and the consequences thereof, is often unscientific and emotionally charged. As I argue in my book, Decline and Prosper! (Skirbekk, 2022), low fertility per se does not pose a major societal threat – and it is also accompanied by a number of benefits. In this article, I summarize my main points: namely, that i) the negative consequences of low fertility are often exaggerated and based on false assumptions; ii) low fertility is driven by many different, interacting factors, and is the byproduct or the cause of many positive societal developments; iii) low fertility is here to stay; and iv) societies urgently need to adapt to a world with fewer children. Fertility decline is self-perpetuating: once lowfertility has become the normin one generation, the fertility level is much less likely to increase in subsequent generations. At the same time, no plausible level of migration would be enough to meaningfully alter population aging in the long term. If, however, societies make the right choices, low fertility can enable humans to live more sustainably well into the future, and can stimulate further positive developments in the human condition.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41559377","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Implementing youth-oriented policies: A remedy for depopulation in rural regions?","authors":"Martina Schorn","doi":"10.1553/p-2j6h-94ja","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/p-2j6h-94ja","url":null,"abstract":"The depopulation of rural areas has received increasing attention in recent years, both in scientific discourses and in policy-making. One main factor contributing to this rural shrinkage is the out-migration of the rural population. In particular, young and well-educated people have been leaving rural areas and moving to urban agglomerations. While the drivers as well as the consequences of out-migration have been well researched, less is known about measures to counteract youth outmigration as one of the main drivers of depopulation. Based on a comparative case study conducted in four rural regions affected by youth out-migration in Austria and Germany, this paper discusses policy measures that are specifically targeted at influencing young people’s migration aspirations. In addition, the effects of these measures on rural youth migration are analysed. After implementing measures that take the needs of young people into consideration, all four case study regions started to experience a decrease in their negative youth migration balance. This was mainly due to an increase in in-migration, while youth out-migration rates remained stable. However, these developments follow the general trend of rural youth migration in Austria and Germany in recent years. Thus, more research is needed to evaluate the actual impact of youth-oriented measures. This paper introduces the “youth-oriented regional development” approach, and highlights perspectives for future research on policies aimed at mitigating the challenges facing rural regions that are experiencing depopulation.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48853328","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Depopulation in Moldova: The main challenge in the context of extremly high emigration","authors":"Olga Gagauz, Tatiana Tabac, I. Pahomii","doi":"10.1553/p-ke2z-76zz","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/p-ke2z-76zz","url":null,"abstract":"In Moldova, there has been a long-term decline in the population, mainly due to high levels of emigration. The article presents an analysis of population dynamics in Moldova over the last three decades, and estimates the contributions of fertility, mortality and migration to this process. Using population censuses, data on the population with usual residence, vital statistics and data on Moldovan immigrants from the host countries’ statistical institutes,we estimate population changes between 1991–2021, and present demographic projections up to 2040. The results show that migration outflows account for more than 90% of the depopulation trend, with high levels of premature mortality accelerating the natural decline. The fall in births is associated with a decrease in the reproductive-age population. The total fertility rate has been decreasing gradually, while the cohort fertility rates have not fallen below 1.75 live births per woman. Past migration and low fertility are projected to result in long-term population decline. Demographic ageing is expected to increase. While population decline cannot be stopped, its scale can be limited through reductions in emigration and mortality. This study on population decline in Moldova helps to complete the demographic picture of Europe in the 20th century and into the 21st century.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47283636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How much would reduced emigration mitigate ageing in Norway?","authors":"Marianne Tønnessen, A. Syse","doi":"10.1553/p-g5fe-hafz","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/p-g5fe-hafz","url":null,"abstract":"Population ageing is a topic of great concern in many countries. To counteract the negative effects of ageing, increased fertility or immigration are often proposed as demographic remedies. Changed emigration is, however, rarely mentioned. We explore whether reduced emigration could mitigate ageing in a country like Norway. Using cohort-component methods, we create hypothetical future demographic scenarios with lower emigration rates, and we present (prospective) old-age dependency ratios, population growth and shares of immigrants. We also estimate howmuch fertility and immigrationwould have to change to yield the same effects. In different scenarios, emigration is reduced for the total population and for subgroups, while also taking into account that reduced emigration of natives will entail reduced return migration. Our results show that even a dramatic 50% decrease in annual emigration would mitigate ageing only slightly, by lowering the old-age dependency ratio in 2060 from 0.54 to 0.52. This corresponds to the anti-ageing effect of 15% higher fertility, or one-quarter extra child per woman.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49612456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Population decline will likely become a global trend and benefit long-term human wellbeing","authors":"W. Lutz","doi":"10.1553/p-3cp7-4e6b","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/p-3cp7-4e6b","url":null,"abstract":"Summarising earlier publications, I draw a rather optimistic picture of the human future on this planet, if priority is given to universal education, and, in particular, to female education. The benefits of a greater focus on education range from a lower desired family size and empowerment to reach this goal, to better family health, to poverty reduction, to greater resilience, to expanded capacities to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and, ultimately, to the emergence of better institutions and social values that are less obsessed with material consumption and violent nationalism and more concerned with cooperation, care and wellbeing. I also show that extended periods of below replacement level fertility are beneficial for long-term human wellbeing, and that the human population is on the path to peaking during the second half of this century and then declining to 2–4 billion people by 2200. As this smaller population will be well-educated, they should be healthy and wealthy enough to be able to cope fairly successfully with the already unavoidable (moderate) effects of climate change.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44895348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Neighbourhood effects and determinants of population changes in Italy: A spatial perspective","authors":"F. Benassi, A. Busetta, G. Gallo, M. Stranges","doi":"10.1553/p-5dfz-c44a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/p-5dfz-c44a","url":null,"abstract":"Population trends in Italy are strongly spatially differentiated, with some munic- ipalities showing a systematic loss of population, and others showing an equally continuous demographic increase. Here, we focus our attention on the spatial dimension of population change, looking at how different socio-economic and demographic dimensions affect population changes, as well as their spatial effects. After performing a preliminary descriptive analysis of the trends of population growth and decline in Italy over the last 40 years and the relevant demographic components, we used a spatial Durbin model (SDM) to investigate the potential existence of a diffusion process and the determinants of the average annual growth rate between 2011 and 2019 at the municipal level. The spatial dimension and local heterogeneities in Italy were found to be highly relevant in the analysis of population decline. Moreover, we examined the relationship between demographic, social and economic factors and the demographic growth/decline of municipalities in the subsequent 10 years. Among the different covariates included in the model, the demographic composition of the population, the female activity rate, the youth employment rate and the presence/absence of a school proved to be strongly related to population growth and decline in Italian municipalities.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49337760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The triple burden of depopulation in Ukraine: examining perceptions of population decline","authors":"Brienna Perelli-Harris, Y. Hilevych","doi":"10.1553/p-azcj-d4f4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/p-azcj-d4f4","url":null,"abstract":"In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, leading to severe population loss as millions exited the country and casualties mounted. However, population decline in Ukraine had been occurring for decades due to the triple burden of depopulation: low fertility, high mortality and substantial emigration. Ukraine had also already experienced years of armed conflict and large-scale displacement after the Russian-backed separatist movement, which started in 2014. This study investigates perspectives on depopulation using online focus groups conducted in July 2021, seven months before the current invasion. We compared discussions in eastern Ukraine, including in rural villages, the IDP-receiving city of Mariupol, the large city of Kharkiv and occupied Donetsk. Participants observed that cities were growing at the expense of rural areas. The situation in Donetsk was bleak due to mass emigration, but some participants pointed to a recent increase in births. Overall, the participants acknowledged the triple burden of depopulation in Ukraine, and the consequences of population decline, such as a shrinking labour force and rapid ageing.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47481547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Is Spanish depopulation irreversible? Recent demographic and spatial changes in small municipalities","authors":"Fernando Gil-Alonso, Jordi Bayona‐i‐Carrasco, Isabel Pujadas-Rúbies","doi":"10.1553/p-9fd9-h7g5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/p-9fd9-h7g5","url":null,"abstract":"Many small Spanish municipalities (those with less than 2000 inhabitants) experienced population growth during the first decade of the 21st century due to a large influx of foreign immigrants. However, the Great Recession put an end to this trend. The first aim of this paper is to analyse the demographic impact of the new phase of economic growth – known as the “post-crisis” period (2014–2020) – on small Spanish municipalities. The second aim is to carry out an initial analysis of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic crisis on the growth of these municipalities. The results of a nine-category typology show that during the post-crisis period, the vast majority of villages continued to depopulate, while a minority gained population or had stagnant population figures. The Covid-19 pandemic represented a turning point, with small municipalities as a whole starting to grow again. However, the population did not increase in all categories of villages or in all regions of rural Spain. The results for both periods (post-crisis and Covid-19 pandemic) highlight the growing importance of migration to demographic change in the smallest municipalities.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49279217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}