Vienna Yearbook of Population Research最新文献_第3页

A governance perspective on East Central Europe’s population predicament: Young exit, grey voice and lopsided loyalty 中东欧人口困境的治理视角:年轻人退出、灰色声音和不平衡的忠诚

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2022-11-15 DOI: 10.1553/p-5gkf-6kn3

P. Vanhuysse

{"title":"A governance perspective on East Central Europe’s population predicament: Young exit, grey voice and lopsided loyalty","authors":"P. Vanhuysse","doi":"10.1553/p-5gkf-6kn3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/p-5gkf-6kn3","url":null,"abstract":"Much of East Central Europe today faces the double challenge of having a population that is both ageing fast and shrinking steadily. Elderly-oriented political dynamics and myopic governance are part of this predicament, and are also among the reasons why future prospects are not rosy. Having started the post-communist transition with younger populations, successive governments in this region have comprehensively squandered a decades-long window of opportunity to adapt their policies to the predicted ageing ahead (Vanhuysse and Perek-Bialas, 2021). Especially in Hungary, Poland, Czechia, the Slovak Republic, Romania and Bulgaria, this failure is reflected in low active ageing and child well-being index rankings, low levels of social investment and mediocre educational outcomes, and family policies that reinforce traditional motherhood roles or barely support parents at all. Poland, Romania, Croatia, Hungary and, especially, the Baltic states also experienced large-scale emigration (‘young exit’). Slovenia and the Visegrad Four, but not the Baltics, became premature pensioners‘ democracies characterised by unusually high levels of pro-elderly policy bias (‘lopsided loyalty’). While the salience of family policies increased around the time the demographic window closed, this shift was driven by pro-natalist, neo-familialist and gender-regressive political ideologies, rather than by a concerted effort to boost human capabilities or reward social reproduction. But by then, elderly voter power (‘grey voice’) in East Central Europe was among the highest in the world. Politics strongly constrains the likelihood of appropriate human capital-boosting policy responses to the region’s population predicament. Alarm bells thus ring for a generational contract under pressure and for longer-term societal resilience.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43457195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Parsimonious stochastic forecasting of international and internal migration on the NUTS-3 level – an outlook of regional depopulation trends in Germany NUTS-3水平上国际和国内移民的简明随机预测——德国区域人口减少趋势展望

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2022-11-15 DOI: 10.1553/10.1553/p-5pn2-fmn8

Patrizio Vanella, Timon Hellwagner, Philipp Deschermeier

{"title":"Parsimonious stochastic forecasting of international and internal migration on the NUTS-3 level – an outlook of regional depopulation trends in Germany","authors":"Patrizio Vanella, Timon Hellwagner, Philipp Deschermeier","doi":"10.1553/10.1553/p-5pn2-fmn8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/10.1553/p-5pn2-fmn8","url":null,"abstract":"Substantiated knowledge of future demographic changes that is derived from sound statistical and mathematical methods is a crucial determinant of regional planning. Of the components of demographic developments, migration shapes regional demographics the most over the short term. However, despite its importance, existing approaches model future regional migration based on deterministic assumptions that do not sufficiently account for its highly probabilistic nature. In response to this shortcoming in the literature, our paper uses age- and gender-specific migration data for German NUTS-3 regions over the 1995–2019 period and compares the performance of a variety of forecasting models in backtests. Using the bestperforming model specification and drawing on Monte Carlo simulations, we present a stochastic forecast of regional migration dynamics across German regions until 2040 and analyze their role in regional depopulation. The results provide evidence that well-known age-specific migration patterns across the urban-rural continuum of regions, such as the education-induced migration of young adults, are very likely to persist, and to continue to shape future regional (de)population dynamics.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47199711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

The human eco-predicament: Overshoot and the population conundrum 人类生态困境：过度捕捞与人口难题

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2022-11-15 DOI: 10.1553/p-eznb-ekgc

W. Rees

引用次数: 6

Immigration and the prospects for long-run population decreases in European countries 移民和欧洲国家长期人口减少的前景

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2022-08-18 DOI: 10.1553/p-8jf5-7cdc

N. Parr

{"title":"Immigration and the prospects for long-run population decreases in European countries","authors":"N. Parr","doi":"10.1553/p-8jf5-7cdc","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/p-8jf5-7cdc","url":null,"abstract":"Between 2009 and 2018, the total fertility rate fell in most European countries. In 2018, fertility was below the replacement level throughout Europe. Net migration was positive for two-thirds of European countries. This paper illustrates the implications for long-run population growth of observed net migration-fertilitymortality combinations in 20 European countries over the 2009–18 period by comparing the observed net migration to a zero population growth-related ‘replacement level’ for net migration. The results show that in several northern and north-western European countries, the net migration level has been consistently above this replacement level: if the net migration level and fertility and mortality rates remain constant, the population would increase. However, the findings also indicate that in all of the eastern European countries covered, the net migration level has been consistently below the net migration replacement level. The results further show that in Finland, Norway and Switzerland, the long-run implications of having constant fertility-mortality-net migration levels change from leading to population growth to leading to population decline. The opposite pattern is observed in Germany. The feasibility of preventing long-run population decreases through changes in net migration levels is discussed in light of the results.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46985677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Aspects of a sociology of the pandemic: Inequalities and the life course 流行病社会学的各个方面：不平等和人生历程

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2022-07-28 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2022.per01

K. Mayer

引用次数: 2

Exploring psychological vulnerability and responses to the COVID-19 lockdown in Greece 探索心理脆弱性和对希腊新冠肺炎封锁的反应

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2022-07-28 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.5

Lydia Xourafi, P. Sardi, A. Kostaki

{"title":"Exploring psychological vulnerability and responses to the COVID-19 lockdown in Greece","authors":"Lydia Xourafi, P. Sardi, A. Kostaki","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.5","url":null,"abstract":"This study explores the psychosocial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the population in Greece during the general lockdown period. Specifically, depression, anxiety and stress scores, as well as the factors associated with vulnerability to developing mental health conditions during this period, were investigated. A total of 911 adults participated in an online survey by completing a self-reporting questionnaire that included demographic questions, DASS-42 items (anxiety, stress and depression scales) and other questions related to personal experience. Regression modelling uncovered a significant relationship between gender and DASS scores, with women having significantly higher scores than men for all mental health problems. Participants aged 20–39 years were especially vulnerable to experiencing poor mental health. Unemployed participants reported having worse mental health than others. Having more perceived psychosocial support during the pandemic was associated with lower overall scores. Thus, women, young adults and the unemployed exhibited particularly high levels of vulnerability, while individuals who received social support from relatives and friends during the lockdown were more resilient to the effects of social isolation.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44180201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

COVID-19, the Russo-Ukrainian War, the global sustainable development project and post-crises demography 新冠肺炎、俄乌战争、全球可持续发展项目和危机后人口学

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2022-03-16 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2022.per02

F. Mackellar

{"title":"COVID-19, the Russo-Ukrainian War, the global sustainable development project and post-crises demography","authors":"F. Mackellar","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2022.per02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.per02","url":null,"abstract":"The global sustainable development project as currently conceived is foundering, and the twin crises of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian War have driven a stake through its heart. Some of the reasons for this failure are fundamental design flaws, while others are practical. The resources to bring the project – or its successor, and any other global sustainable development project of similar design and ambition that might emerge – to a successful conclusion do not exist, and never did. What lessons are we learning, and how can they inform post-2030 sustainable development goals? In this essay, the effects of the catastrophes of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the global sustainable development project are enumerated, SDG by SDG, with special attention being paid to the implications for demography. In closing, recommendations for reforms of the project are presented, as are some suggestions for the field of demography in the changed global context. The most concrete, feasible immediate recommendations are to make up recently lost ground, specifically in the areas of vaccination and education; and to reform the profoundly flawed international asylum and refugee system.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41362089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

COVID-19 and relationship quality: Emotional, paid work and organizational spheres COVID-19与关系质量:情感、有偿工作和组织领域

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2022-03-16 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.5

Daniela Bellani, Daniele Vignoli

引用次数: 2

Rapid changes in birth counts in Brazilian major cities during the COVID-19 pandemic 2019冠状病毒病大流行期间巴西主要城市出生人数的快速变化

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2022-03-16 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.3

E. Lima, Camila F. Soares, José H. C. Monteiro da Silva

{"title":"Rapid changes in birth counts in Brazilian major cities during the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"E. Lima, Camila F. Soares, José H. C. Monteiro da Silva","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.3","url":null,"abstract":"Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, Brazil has been among the countries that have been heavily affected by this novel disease. From March 2020 onwards, records of deaths in Brazil increased as the number of COVID-19 infections skyrocketed. Consequently, many studies have tried to explain how this illness has affected the overall number of deaths since the start of the pandemic, and have examined the question of whether mortality related to COVID-19 has led to reductions in life expectancy. However, at the time of writing, there have been few empirical analyses of the effects of the pandemic on births. In this study, we sought to investigate whether the COVID-19 pandemic influenced the recent birth counts of six large cities in Brazil by assessing the most up-to-date vital statistics data that are available. Using data from the municipal health departments of these cities, we compared the number of monthly births from October–December 2020 and January–March 2021 with the number of new-borns in similar months and years before the pandemic. Our results show that there was a strong decline in the number of births in some of the cities analysed, and that most of the reductions occurred among women around the age of 30 years old. It appears that because of the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, women have been postponing or foregoing the realisation of their fertility intentions, which may have led to a temporary baby bust in some cities of Brazil. However, the COVID-19 pandemic was not found to be associated with faster reductions in births in all Brazilian cities. Indeed, in the cities of Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte, the decreasing trend in birth counts appears to have slowed down, or even reversed.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43710413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

The population aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic in 20 papers: an introduction 20篇论文中新冠肺炎大流行的人口方面：导言

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2022-03-16 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2022.int01

P. Di Giulio, A. Goujon, G. Marois

{"title":"The population aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic in 20 papers: an introduction","authors":"P. Di Giulio, A. Goujon, G. Marois","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2022.int01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.int01","url":null,"abstract":"The introduction to the 2022 Special Issue presents the 20 articles that discuss the demographic aspects and the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. It synthesises the main findings from the contributions, emphasising the demographic, social and economic characteristics that influenced the spread of infections and determined the number of deaths. We highlight the specific focus on measurement issues, often with a comparative framework across several countries, and at the regional level as well, both within and beyond Europe. We also summarise the impact of the measures imposed to contain the spread of the virus, such as lockdowns. Moreover, we explore the impact of the pandemic on the quality of relationships, the intention and the motivation to have children, and realised fertility. In addition, we present the authors’ broader reflections on the risks faced by different communities of individuals, and the potential consequences for their life trajectories, including in relation to other current risks that overlap with the pandemic (recent armed conflicts), and for the achievability of the Sustainable Development Goals themselves.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42316743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3