像高胆固醇一样，人口下降也是一个问题，但不是你想象的那样……

Q3 Social Sciences

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.1553/p-jm9f-3jdm

W. Sigle

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引用次数: 0

摘要

欧洲人口下降的前景通常被认为是一个重要的政策问题。讨论和研究通常集中在人口指标的水平和趋势上。能否设计出以理性个体的约束优化为目标的政策，使指标朝着正确的方向变化?在这个干预中，我认为，就像医学中的替代标记一样，人口统计指标不是一个有意义的终点:它是健康或类似的健康社会的直接衡量标准。正如历史所表明的那样，把人口指标当作有意义的终点可能会带来巨大的危害。在我看来，正是这种误解使人口下降成为一个真正严重和可怕的问题。所以，是的，人口下降是一个问题，但不是你或提出这类问题的人所想的那样。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Like high cholesterol, population decline is a problem, but not in the way you might think...

The prospect of population decline in Europe is commonly understood to be an important policy problem. Discussions and research typically focus on the level and the trend of demographic indicators. Can policies be designed which, by targeting the constrained optimisation of rational individuals, cause the indicators to change in the right direction? In this intervention, I argue that like a surrogate marker in medicine, a demographic indicator is not a meaningful endpoint: something that is a direct measure of health or, analogously, a healthy society. Treating population indicators as meaningful endpoints can, as history has shown, lead to great harm. In my view, it is this misconception that makes population decline a truly serious and terrifying problem. So yes, population decline is a problem, but not in the way you, or the people who pose this sort of question, might think.

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来源期刊

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Social Sciences-Demography

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： In Europe there is currently an increasing public awareness of the importance that demographic trends have in reshaping our societies. Concerns about possible negative consequences of population aging seem to be the major force behind this new interest in demographic research. Demographers have been pointing out the fundamental change in the age composition of European populations and its potentially serious implications for social security schemes for more than two decades but it is only now that the expected retirement of the baby boom generation has come close enough in time to appear on the radar screen of social security planners and political decision makers to be considered a real challenge and not just an academic exercise.