Depopulation in Moldova: The main challenge in the context of extremly high emigration

Q3 Social Sciences

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2023-03-30 DOI:10.1553/p-ke2z-76zz

Olga Gagauz, Tatiana Tabac, I. Pahomii

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Abstract

In Moldova, there has been a long-term decline in the population, mainly due to high levels of emigration. The article presents an analysis of population dynamics in Moldova over the last three decades, and estimates the contributions of fertility, mortality and migration to this process. Using population censuses, data on the population with usual residence, vital statistics and data on Moldovan immigrants from the host countries’ statistical institutes,we estimate population changes between 1991–2021, and present demographic projections up to 2040. The results show that migration outflows account for more than 90% of the depopulation trend, with high levels of premature mortality accelerating the natural decline. The fall in births is associated with a decrease in the reproductive-age population. The total fertility rate has been decreasing gradually, while the cohort fertility rates have not fallen below 1.75 live births per woman. Past migration and low fertility are projected to result in long-term population decline. Demographic ageing is expected to increase. While population decline cannot be stopped, its scale can be limited through reductions in emigration and mortality. This study on population decline in Moldova helps to complete the demographic picture of Europe in the 20th century and into the 21st century.

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摩尔多瓦人口减少：移民人数极高背景下的主要挑战

在摩尔多瓦，人口长期下降，主要是由于大量移民。本文对摩尔多瓦过去三十年的人口动态进行了分析，并估计了生育率、死亡率和移民对这一进程的贡献。利用人口普查、常住人口数据、人口动态统计数据以及东道国统计机构提供的摩尔多瓦移民数据，我们估计了1991年至2021年期间的人口变化，并给出了截至2040年的人口预测。结果表明，人口外流占人口减少趋势的90%以上，高水平的过早死亡率加速了人口的自然下降。出生率的下降与育龄人口的减少有关。总生育率一直在逐渐下降，而队列生育率并未低于每名妇女1.75个活产。过去的移徙和低生育率预计将导致长期的人口下降。预计人口老龄化将加剧。虽然人口下降无法停止，但可以通过减少移徙和死亡率来限制其规模。这项关于摩尔多瓦人口下降的研究有助于完成20世纪和21世纪欧洲的人口状况。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Social Sciences-Demography

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： In Europe there is currently an increasing public awareness of the importance that demographic trends have in reshaping our societies. Concerns about possible negative consequences of population aging seem to be the major force behind this new interest in demographic research. Demographers have been pointing out the fundamental change in the age composition of European populations and its potentially serious implications for social security schemes for more than two decades but it is only now that the expected retirement of the baby boom generation has come close enough in time to appear on the radar screen of social security planners and political decision makers to be considered a real challenge and not just an academic exercise.