Impact of urban outdoor thermal conditions on selected hospital admissions in Novi Sad, Serbia

Q3 Social Sciences

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI:10.1553/p-m53z-m2eh

Daniela Arsenović, S. Savić, D. Milošević, Z. Lužanin, Milena Kojić, Ivana Radić, S. Harhaji, M. Arsić

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Abstract

Climate change has been recognized as an important issue in public health, with particular concerns being raised about the effects of heat and cold extremes on health, and about seasonal changes over the year and their associations with increased mortality and hospitalizations. This paper explored the relationship between physiological equivalent temperature (PET) and cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions in Novi Sad (Serbia) with the aim of assessing the impact of urban outdoor thermal conditions on health. Analysis was performed using daily data on cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions by gender covering the period from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2017. For the same period, PET was calculated using data from two urban meteorological network stations. The association between PET and hospital admissions was examined using a generalized additive model (GAM) combined with a distributed lag non-linearmodel (DLNM). The study found a non-linear relationship between PET and cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions, with a larger impact during the cold period of the year. The findings also indicated that under conditions of high PET, the cumulative RR increased for cardiovascular admissions (for males) and respiratory admissions (for females). People with pre-existing respiratory diseases were found to be more vulnerable under conditions of extremely low and moderately low PET, with a greater effect at lag 0–14 days. By contrast, for people with cardiovascular diseases, low PET was linked to a decrease in hospital admissions, with the risk being lowest at lag 0 and 0–3 days.

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城市室外热量条件对塞尔维亚诺维萨德部分入院人数的影响

气候变化已被视为公共卫生领域的一个重要问题，人们尤其关注极端冷热对健康的影响，以及一年中的季节变化及其与死亡率和住院率增加之间的关系。本文探讨了诺维萨德（塞尔维亚）的生理当量温度（PET）与心血管和呼吸系统入院率之间的关系，旨在评估城市室外热条件对健康的影响。分析使用的是 2016 年 1 月 1 日至 2017 年 12 月 31 日期间按性别分列的心血管和呼吸系统每日入院数据。同期，利用两个城市气象网络站的数据计算了PET。使用广义加法模型（GAM）结合分布式滞后非线性模型（DLNM）研究了 PET 与入院人数之间的关系。研究发现 PET 与心血管和呼吸系统入院人数之间存在非线性关系，在一年中的寒冷时期影响更大。研究结果还表明，在 PET 较高的情况下，心血管疾病入院人数（男性）和呼吸系统疾病入院人数（女性）的累计死亡率都会增加。研究发现，在极低和中低 PET 条件下，原有呼吸系统疾病的人更容易受到影响，在滞后 0-14 天的影响更大。相比之下，对心血管疾病患者而言，低 PET 与入院人数减少有关，滞后 0 天和 0-3 天的风险最低。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Social Sciences-Demography

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： In Europe there is currently an increasing public awareness of the importance that demographic trends have in reshaping our societies. Concerns about possible negative consequences of population aging seem to be the major force behind this new interest in demographic research. Demographers have been pointing out the fundamental change in the age composition of European populations and its potentially serious implications for social security schemes for more than two decades but it is only now that the expected retirement of the baby boom generation has come close enough in time to appear on the radar screen of social security planners and political decision makers to be considered a real challenge and not just an academic exercise.