Temperature- and seasonality-related infectious disease mortality among infants: A retrospective time-series study of Sweden, 1868–1892

Q3 Social Sciences

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI:10.1553/p-33g4-pgab

J. Junkka, Maria Hiltunen

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Climate conditions, such as ambient temperatures, play a crucial role in infants' vulnerability to infectious diseases. However, little is known about how climate conditions, such as temperatures and seasonality, affect infectious disease mortality among infants in high mortality settings. The aim of our study was to investigate the association between cause-specific infant mortality and ambient temperatures and seasonality. We applied a retrospective study design using parish register data from Sweden covering the 1868–1892 period in combination with daily temperature data. Mortality due to water- and foodborne diseases, airborne infectious diseases and other causes was modelled as a function of temperature exposure in the previous 14 days using distributed lagged non-linear models. We found that airborne infectious diseasemortality was not related to cold temperatures, but rather to seasonality. The summer peaks in mortality due to water- and foodborne infections were associated with high temperatures, and not with seasonality. The increased vulnerability of infants to infectious diseases at high temperatures is a significant future risk, given that global temperatures are projected to rise in the coming decades.

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与气温和季节相关的婴儿传染病死亡率：1868-1892 年瑞典时间序列回顾性研究

环境温度等气候条件对婴儿感染传染病的可能性起着至关重要的作用。然而，人们对气温和季节性等气候条件如何影响高死亡率环境中婴儿的传染病死亡率知之甚少。我们的研究旨在调查特定病因婴儿死亡率与环境温度和季节性之间的关联。我们采用了回顾性研究设计，使用了瑞典 1868-1892 年期间的教区登记数据和每日气温数据。利用分布式滞后非线性模型，将水传播和食源性疾病、空气传播传染病及其他原因导致的死亡率与前 14 天的温度暴露值建立了模型。我们发现，空气传播的传染病死亡率与低温无关，而是与季节性有关。夏季水传播和食源性感染导致的死亡率高峰与高温有关，而与季节性无关。鉴于未来几十年全球气温预计将上升，婴儿在高温下更容易感染传染病是未来的一个重大风险。

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来源期刊

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Social Sciences-Demography

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： In Europe there is currently an increasing public awareness of the importance that demographic trends have in reshaping our societies. Concerns about possible negative consequences of population aging seem to be the major force behind this new interest in demographic research. Demographers have been pointing out the fundamental change in the age composition of European populations and its potentially serious implications for social security schemes for more than two decades but it is only now that the expected retirement of the baby boom generation has come close enough in time to appear on the radar screen of social security planners and political decision makers to be considered a real challenge and not just an academic exercise.