哥伦比亚的气候、冲突和国内移徙

Q3 Social Sciences

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI:10.1553/p-8kaj-g8kb

Katharina Fenz, Thomas Mitterling, Jesús Crespo Cuaresma, Isabell Roitner-Fransecky

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引用次数: 0

摘要

有关环境变化、冲突和移民之间潜在因果关系的可靠经验证据并不多见。我们以哥伦比亚 2000 年至 2005 年期间的国内移民为背景，对这种关系进行了评估。我们在一个考虑了冲突爆发和非零移民流存在的内生选择问题的引力模型中使用了市级数据，建立了干旱、冲突和移民之间的因果关系。我们的研究结果表明，干旱的严重程度与发生冲突的可能性之间以及冲突与人口流动之间存在正相关关系，这表明气候对哥伦比亚的国内移民产生了间接影响。

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Climate, conflict and internal migration in Colombia

Robust empirical evidence on the potential causal linkages between environmental change, conflict and migration is scarce. We evaluate this relationship in the context of internal migration in Colombia for the period from 2000 to 2005. Using municipalitylevel data in a gravity model that considers the issue of endogenous selection regarding both the outbreak of conflicts and the existence of non-zero migration flows, we establish an empirical causal link between droughts, conflict and migration. Our results show a positive relationship between the severity of droughts and the likelihood of conflicts, as well as between conflicts and human mobility, suggesting an indirect effect of climate on internal migration in Colombia.

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来源期刊

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Social Sciences-Demography

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： In Europe there is currently an increasing public awareness of the importance that demographic trends have in reshaping our societies. Concerns about possible negative consequences of population aging seem to be the major force behind this new interest in demographic research. Demographers have been pointing out the fundamental change in the age composition of European populations and its potentially serious implications for social security schemes for more than two decades but it is only now that the expected retirement of the baby boom generation has come close enough in time to appear on the radar screen of social security planners and political decision makers to be considered a real challenge and not just an academic exercise.