Welfare state winners and losers in ageing societies

Q3 Social Sciences

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI:10.1553/populationyearbook2019s009

M. Sánchez-Romero, Gemma Abio, Montserrat Botey, A. Prskawetz, Jože Sambt, Meritxell Solé Juvés, Guadalupe Souto, Lili Vargha, Concepció Patxot

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引用次数: 2

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse the impact of population ageing on the sustainability and the intergenerational fairness of public fiscal policy in three selected European countries (Austria, France, and Spain). We use NTA and NTTA data, and introduce these data into a large-scale general equilibrium OLG model with realistic assumptions regarding demographic trends and changes in population structure. The results for sustainability show a sharp increase in the share of public expenditure to GDP for the main programmes of the welfare state. In the three countries analysed, public policies (e.g. education, health care, and pension benefits) redistribute income from younger individuals to older individuals. Our findings indicate that these policies redistribute more resources to older individuals in Spain and fewer resources to older individuals in Austria. We consider the effects of several reform scenarios, including simulations in which the statutory retirement age is raised and the tax base for financing health care expenditures are changed. We also describe the consequences of the population having a fixed level of educational attainment.

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老龄化社会中福利国家的赢家和输家

在本文中，我们分析了人口老龄化对三个欧洲国家(奥地利、法国和西班牙)公共财政政策可持续性和代际公平性的影响。我们使用NTA和NTTA数据，并将这些数据引入大规模一般均衡OLG模型，并对人口趋势和人口结构变化进行现实假设。可持续性的结果表明，福利国家主要项目的公共支出占GDP的比例急剧上升。在所分析的三个国家中，公共政策(如教育、保健和养老金福利)将收入从年轻人重新分配给老年人。我们的研究结果表明，这些政策将更多的资源重新分配给西班牙的老年人，而将更少的资源重新分配给奥地利的老年人。我们考虑了几种改革方案的影响，包括法定退休年龄提高和为医疗支出融资的税基改变的模拟。我们还描述了人口受教育程度固定的后果。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Social Sciences-Demography

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： In Europe there is currently an increasing public awareness of the importance that demographic trends have in reshaping our societies. Concerns about possible negative consequences of population aging seem to be the major force behind this new interest in demographic research. Demographers have been pointing out the fundamental change in the age composition of European populations and its potentially serious implications for social security schemes for more than two decades but it is only now that the expected retirement of the baby boom generation has come close enough in time to appear on the radar screen of social security planners and political decision makers to be considered a real challenge and not just an academic exercise.