《21世纪人口和人力资本情景:2018年201个国家评估》摘要

Q3 Social Sciences

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI:10.1553/POPULATIONYEARBOOK2018S221

N. Gailey, W. Lutz

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引用次数: 1

摘要

2016年，欧盟委员会联合研究中心(JRC)和国际应用系统分析研究所(IIASA)同意建立伙伴关系，建立人口与移民专业知识中心(CEPAM)。这里介绍的工作总结了CEPAM发表的第一批结果。研究结果揭示了人口老龄化的明显势头，以及移民对欧盟人口结构的影响是如何有限的，尤其是从长远来看。另一方面，提高劳动力参与率可以抵消人口老龄化带来的抚养比预期上升。在全球范围内，调查结果表明，人口增长和社会经济发展的未来将取决于教育的扩大，特别是非洲女童教育的扩大。快速发展或停滞发展的情景说明了到2100年世界人口的各种可能的未来。

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Summary of ‘Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries’

In 2016, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) agreed to form a partnership, establishing the Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM). The work presented here summarises the first results published by CEPAM. The results reveal clear momentum towards population ageing, and how migration has limited ability to influence the population structure of the EU, especially in the long-run. On the other hand, boosting labour force participation can nullify expected rises in the dependency ratio from population ageing. Globally, the findings show the future of population growth and socio-economic development will be determined by the expansion of education, particularly among girls in Africa. Scenarios of either rapid or stalled development illustrate a large range of possible futures for world population by 2100.

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来源期刊

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Social Sciences-Demography

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： In Europe there is currently an increasing public awareness of the importance that demographic trends have in reshaping our societies. Concerns about possible negative consequences of population aging seem to be the major force behind this new interest in demographic research. Demographers have been pointing out the fundamental change in the age composition of European populations and its potentially serious implications for social security schemes for more than two decades but it is only now that the expected retirement of the baby boom generation has come close enough in time to appear on the radar screen of social security planners and political decision makers to be considered a real challenge and not just an academic exercise.