Sustainable Futures最新文献

{"title":"Does carbon tax implementation advance sustainable development in the United Arab Emirates? Perceptions of academics and professionals","authors":"Riham Muqattash ,&nbsp;Mohamed Chakib Kolsi ,&nbsp;Khaldoon Albitar ,&nbsp;Mohammad Sharairi","doi":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101603","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101603","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Combating climate change is crucial for entities to ensure long-term sustainability, protect their supply chains, and maintain the trust of environmentally conscious investors and consumers. The aim of this research is to examine the perceptions of professionals and academics regarding carbon tax implementation in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). We examine three main areas: the incentives driving carbon tax adoption among UAE firms, the challenges hindering its implementation, and the role of the carbon tax in advancing sustainable development. We used a quantitative approach to validate our assumptions, with a survey questionnaire administered to academics and professionals operating in the UAE, and performed principal component analysis. According to the results, most of the respondents agree that carbon tax implementation enhances firm profitability and global competitiveness through cost reduction. It promotes green skills among staff and helps firms meet stakeholders’ needs and society expectations. However, most of the respondents agree that the lack of clear regulation, lenient penalties for non-conformity, higher implementation costs, and resistance to shift to eco-friendly operations among some groups with vested interests could impede carbon tax implementation across the nation. Finally, results show that the carbon tax enhances sustainability through its three main pillars: economic, environmental, and social. The study contributes to the bounded empirical literature on carbon taxation in emerging economies and offers practical implications for policymakers and business leaders. It provides useful guidelines for promoting sustainability through the adoption of eco-friendly fiscal policies, a proven instrument for mitigating climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34478,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Futures","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 101603"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145798091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Toward sustainable solutions: green energy poverty, energy justice, and environmental degradation in Ethiopia with moderating effects and countershock simulations","authors":"Tesfaye Etensa ,&nbsp;Tekie Alemu ,&nbsp;Mengesha Yayo ,&nbsp;Tewodros Negash","doi":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101587","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101587","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The unexplored green energy poverty–environmental degradation nexus in Ethiopia hampers understanding of its environmental impacts and obstructs pathways toward a just and sustainable energy transition. Moreover, the moderating role of energy justice remains inadequately examined, creating critical policy gaps. This study investigates the impacts of green energy poverty and energy justice on environmental degradation, probes energy justice’s moderating role, tests the empirical validity of the STIRPARTY model, and predicts countershocks using ARDL and novel dynamic ARDL simulations on quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2020Q4. Building on the “stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, regulation, and technology” (STIRPART) model, the study proposes an extended STIRPARTY framework by incorporating nonlinearity (Y) to better capture complex interactions. Findings reveal that green energy poverty significantly increases environmental degradation, while energy justice mitigates this impact in both the short and long term. Energy justice strongly moderates green energy poverty, reducing its effect on environmental harm. Simulation analysis based on a 36% change in green energy poverty shows substantial long-term effects, but energy justice helps reduce the environmental burden. The study also finds that emission reductions achieved by lowering green energy poverty may not be fully sustained over time. Environmental degradation increases with green energy poverty but at a diminishing rate until a threshold is reached. Policy implications include developing an energy justice framework for equitable, affordable, and sustainable access; bridging urban–rural energy gaps through renewables; creating public–private partnerships for co-financing, technical support, and local joint management; implementing sector-wide energy efficiency programs; forecasting environmental countershocks; and enforcing sustainable land-use policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34478,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Futures","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 101587"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145798099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying zonal interdependencies in Urban Land Valuation: A novel geospatial model of infrastructure density and road network synergies","authors":"Shawky Mansour","doi":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101576","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101576","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the field of global urban economics, the density of transportation infrastructure and distribution of public amenities significantly impact land valuation. Nonetheless, a methodological gap persists in modelling these spatial determinants. This study seeks to address this gap by introducing a spatial econometric framework that recalibrates existing land-valuation methodologies. Our framework integrates infrastructure-mediated agglomeration economies with spatial impedance dynamics to quantify the value hotspots induced by facility concentration and accessibility premiums. The model's dual-kernel design captures centrifugal decay from centrality while incorporating neighborhood synergies, establishing a paradigm in which polycentric attraction forces interact with facility distributions and transport infrastructure. Utilising Kuwait's urban landscape as a case study, cadastral data across 137 zones provided predictors: a Proximity Integration Index (combining road connectivity and facility access) and a Composite Infrastructure Index (reflecting amenity concentration). Following validation through spatial autocorrelation analysis and machine learning interpretability, the results indicate that the Proximity Integration Index is the primary predictor, demonstrating a relative predictive importance of 68 % based on SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis, and doubling the explanatory power of central business district proximity. Spatial diagnostics reveal valuation distortions, with inflation in infrastructure-saturated cores and depressions in underserved peripheries. The Composite Regional Integration and Local Vitality Index confirmed the relationship between accessibility integration and facility density. These findings suggest prioritizing interconnected transport networks and strategic facility allocation over monocentric development. This study provides urban planners with an analytical framework for optimizing infrastructure allocation, enhancing land value capture, and advancing sustainable urbanisation, particularly in the Global South.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34478,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Futures","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 101576"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145658781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stress detection using a novel human opinion dynamics based machine learning method","authors":"Anita Goyal,&nbsp;Maninder Singh,&nbsp;Anmol Goyal","doi":"10.1016/j.sftr.2026.101672","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sftr.2026.101672","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In today's interconnected world, understanding societal mental health is more crucial than ever. While traditional machine learning methods have attempted to quantify stress from social media data, they often fail to capture the complexity of human emotion. Existing binary classification models, like Naive Bayes and SVM, are fundamentally limited; they can only categorize stress as present or absent, ignoring the nuanced spectrum of human stress levels. Moreover, these methods completely overlook the profound influence of social interactions, a key driver of individual and collective well-being. ​This research introduces a paradigm shift with its Human Opinion Dynamics Optimization (HODO) method. By integrating insights from social dynamics, the HODO model moves beyond a simple binary classification. It's the first of its kind to not only detect varying stress levels—from reduced to heightened—but also to quantify how interactions between individuals impact their mental state. This nuanced, socially-aware approach provides a more accurate and holistic assessment of societal stress. The implications are significant, offering a powerful tool for policymakers, public health officials, and mental health professionals to better understand and address the mental health challenges posed by a competitive and ever-changing world.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34478,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Futures","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 101672"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145977488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Perspectives and impacts of modern technology on the environment and society","authors":"Fernando Gabriel ,&nbsp;Leon Pijnenburg ,&nbsp;Bedir Tekinerdogan","doi":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101583","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101583","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The exacerbation of the climate crisis has intensified debates on the role of technology in addressing the environmental and social challenges it entails. While international agendas, such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), prioritise technological adoption and innovation as a solution, critical scholarship suggests scepticism about an increase in technology as a beneficial step. Reflecting on these divergent perspectives, this study assumes an agnostic stance towards technology to assess technical literature on technology and its impacts through an integrated approach. This approach includes a systematic literature review (SLR) and a follow-up systems analysis on the SLR findings. With a predominant presence of literature on environmental impacts and China as a location of study, technology initially appears to have mainly positive implications. However, through further assessment and systems analysis, this support weakens, revealing hidden links and consequences that undermine technology’s initial benefits and expose possible biases and alignment with political agendas. Similarly, this study reveals that when analysed through a broader lens, technology appears to be in an endless feedback loop with itself and its impacts, having overall detrimental correlations that contradict individual publications on technological desirability. As a result, this study shows that a systems thinking approach to specific technologies and empirical studies can strengthen critical scholarship arguments. To conclude, this study argues for systems thinking approaches and interdisciplinary dialogue to inform policies and research related to technology and its impacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34478,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Futures","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 101583"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145749283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Transferring and scaling innovation in urban green-blue Infrastructure: beyond one-size-fits-all solutions and preconceptions","authors":"Anton Shkaruba ,&nbsp;Hanna Skryhan ,&nbsp;Marcin Spyra ,&nbsp;Justyna Rubaszek ,&nbsp;Tereza Rumanová ,&nbsp;Mária Bihuňová ,&nbsp;Nadiya Maksymenko ,&nbsp;Eva Semančíková ,&nbsp;Jóna László ,&nbsp;Viktar Kireyeŭ ,&nbsp;Kalev Sepp","doi":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101619","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101619","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Green and Blue Infrastructure (GBI) innovations are increasingly promoted in Europe, yet their transfer to new socio-political contexts remains poorly understood. This study applies the Strategic Niche Management (SNM) framework to analyse the conditions under which GBI innovations can be replicated and scaled beyond their original settings. We examine six GBI projects from five EU Member States and assess their perceived transferability through three expert workshops in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. Using a comparative qualitative design, workshop transcripts were analysed to identify how actors interpret innovation, allocate responsibilities, and negotiate risks within their socio-technical regimes.</div><div>Across cases, successful transfer depended on leadership by municipal actors, a supportive knowledge base, flexible regulatory arrangements, and targeted communication that strengthens public acceptance. Major constraints included entrenched “business-as-usual’’ routines in administrative and epistemic communities, misconceptions about the costs and maintenance of GBI, weak participatory traditions, and corruption risks. The findings demonstrate that GBI diffusion is highly context-dependent: local actors may be unexpectedly supportive of nature-based solutions, while bottom-up initiatives can serve as viable entry points even within hierarchical governance systems. The study contributes empirical insights from an under-researched region and illustrates how SNM can be operationalised to guide GBI innovation transfer and regime change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34478,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Futures","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 101619"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145938429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of intelligent technology progress on skill matching in labor market—evidence from China","authors":"Yue Han","doi":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101635","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101635","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Through mathematical deduction, this paper reveals the impact of intelligent technology progress on skill matching in labor market. This paper constructs a provincial-level comprehensive index of industrial intelligence from three dimensions: infrastructure, production application, competitiveness and efficiency. This paper combines it with the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data from 2014 to 2020, and uses the Poisson model for empirical test. The regression results show that for every 1 unit increase in the level of industrial intelligence, the gap between the actual education years of workers and the education years required for work will be narrowed by 2.19 years, that is, the progress of intelligent technology has significantly improved the skill matching. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect is more obvious in Eastern China, labor-intensive and technology-intensive areas, and areas with higher degree of marketization, and is more obvious in the tertiary industry. The improvement effect of intelligent technology progress on skill matching is more evident among females, as well as middle-aged and elderly workers. This paper conducts robustness tests by replacing the measurement of skill matching and intelligent technology progress, replacing the parameter estimation method, and adjusting the settings of the econometric model, which verifies the reliability of the conclusion. Mechanism analysis indicates that intelligent technology progress contributes to the upgrading of employment skill structure, thereby promoting the improvement of skill matching in labor market. Based on the research findings, we propose relevant policy recommendations in terms of accelerating the development of industrial intelligence, deepening the reform of labor market, and so on.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34478,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Futures","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 101635"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145938526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"AI on the path to good decisions","authors":"Mindaugas Kiškis","doi":"10.1016/j.sftr.2026.101644","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sftr.2026.101644","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article examines objections to the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in decisions affecting humans and argues that most objections rest on anthropocentric assumptions rather than evidence about decision quality. Critics often presume that human decision makers are uniquely capable of moral and contextual judgment, while AI systems are inferior, opaque or hostile. The article challenges this view arguing that modern AI systems are an expression of collective human intelligence and ethics, built on the image of human cognition, trained on curated human decisions and operating on best decision making frameworks. Drawing on empirical studies the article shows that modern AI systems offer unique advantages in decision-making, thus may already in some domains be as good at making good decisions as an average individual human. The article deconstructs main criticisms of AI decision-making and introduces the novel argument of inseparability between human and AI decisions. Human and AI contributions are increasingly intertwined, AI involvement is latent and appropriated by humans, making existing accountability frameworks based on a clear human–AI boundary obsolete. The article advocates for the development of agnostic decision-making frameworks that apply universal accountability to both human and non-human agents and provide a path to better decisions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34478,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Futures","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 101644"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145938504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"SME development for poverty alleviation using GIS and AHP-based multi-criteria decision analysis","authors":"Md. Ashrafuzzaman Pramanik,&nbsp;Abu Nayem Md. Kayes,&nbsp;Ashraf Uddin Fahim,&nbsp;Kazi Mst. Hurajannat Tuba","doi":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101598","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101598","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Small and medium-sized businesses have the potential to make a significant contribution to Bangladesh's overall economic development, both in alleviating poverty and contributing to the country's GDP. The present study aims to investigate the causes and consequences of poverty, identify suitable small- and medium-sized industries, and select appropriate sites for the development of such industries, using Chatmohor in Pabna district as a case study. This study utilized descriptive statistics, multilinear regression, binary logistic regression, rank-based quotient, Analytical Hierarchy Approach and the Multi-criteria decision analysis method. PRA, FGD, and KII are also the instruments that were used in the process of primary data collection. The study shows 80% of respondents live below extreme poverty, with 37.5% never attending school and 5.2% reaching undergraduate level. With a less than 0.05 p-value, two factors, unemployment and unstable economic conditions found to be significant in affecting mental health. Using AHP, weights of 55.79%, 26.33%, 12.19%, and 5.69% were assigned to growth centres, Land Use Land Cover, rural markets, and slope, respectively. Using this weight Multi-criteria Decision analysis identified most of the suitable land for industry, such as right near the Chatmohor railway station, Shitllai Zaminadar house near Natore National Highway, and Mulgram. The study's findings indicated that agro-processing companies in the region are crucial to the local economy, as a wide variety of agricultural products are readily available. This study enables stakeholders to make informed decisions about industries, promoting economic prosperity, thereby contributing to sustainable growth and achieving the goal of poverty alleviation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34478,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Futures","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 101598"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145798084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adaptive management strategies for the improvement of water quality and sustainability in water recharge areas","authors":"Fernando García-Ávila ,&nbsp;Marco Rojas-Yanzaguano ,&nbsp;Angel Roldán-Lata ,&nbsp;Lorgio Valdiviezo-Gonzales ,&nbsp;Emigdio Alfaro-Paredes ,&nbsp;Alex Avilés-Añazco","doi":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101610","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101610","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ineffective management of water recharge areas leads to environmental degradation and decreased water quality, affecting both ecosystems and local communities. This study evaluated adaptive water resource management strategies as key to conservation and sustainability in these areas. A systematic review was conducted using the Scopus database, applying the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) statement for identifying and selecting relevant articles that addressed the research questions. Reforestation and agroecological management practices were found to be effective for improving water quality in water recharge areas. These practices significantly reduced contaminants such as nitrates and phosphates, contributing to the sustainability of aquatic ecosystems. Furthermore, key factors that influence the effectiveness of these interventions were identified, including the participation of local communities, continuous monitoring of water resources, and environmental education. Finally, recommendations are provided for future research and management practices that integrate local community engagement and approaches based on technical and economic assessments, in order to maximize the positive impact on water quality and ecosystem resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34478,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Futures","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 101610"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145798088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}