Demand forecasting and PV/EV-integrated energy system modeling for achieving a sustainable island

Due to the increasing demand in the electric energy and transportation sector, future planning for these sectors is essential. This paper deals with forecasting electricity and gasoline demand for the Qeshm island located in the south of Iran and modeling its energy system. In this regard, using a time series analysis model, ARIMA, the electricity and gasoline demand of the island in 2030 is forecasted. Then, by compiling different scenarios for the island's power and transportation network, supply and demand modeling for the island's energy system is conducted. Finally, using a multi-criteria decision-making method, the energy scenarios are ranked and the best one is selected. The results of the research showed that increasing the share of solar energy as well as electric vehicles in the island's energy and transportation network, from the worst to the best case, has a direct relationship with reducing energy consumption (up to 17.3 %), reducing emissions (up to 23.8 %) and, as a result, increasing the sustainability of the island. Also, investing only in the development of thermal power plants, regardless of renewable sources and electric transportation, will reduce the economic and environmental efficiency of the island's energy system in the long term.