Sustainable Futures最新文献

筛选
英文 中文
The role of social capital in enhancing community participation for sustainable agricultural tourism 社会资本在促进社区参与可持续农业旅游方面的作用
IF 4.9 2区 社会学
Sustainable Futures Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101612
Nguyen Van Ninh, Tran Van Tam
{"title":"The role of social capital in enhancing community participation for sustainable agricultural tourism","authors":"Nguyen Van Ninh,&nbsp;Tran Van Tam","doi":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101612","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101612","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Community development has become an interdisciplinary field that focuses on empowering local people's participation and promoting sustainable rural transformation. In this field, social capital has received increasing attention as a driving force connecting community participation with agritourism initiatives.</div><div>This study is the extends prior bibliometric mappings at the intersection of social capital, community participation, and sustainable agritourism using advanced bibliometric methods. Bibliometric analysis was conducted on 634 docoments, after 227 remove duplicated from two databases, Web of Science (391) and Scopus (470), for the period 1976 to 2025. The analysis used bibliometrix (R) and VOSviewer software to examine co-occurring keywords, thematic clusters, and conceptual evolution over time. The findings identified three prevailing thematic clusters which included; (1) social trust and empowerment in community-based tourism; (2) sustainability in the development of agritourism; and (3) participatory governance and stakeholder engagement. Emerging themes demonstrate growing concern for environmental justice and indigenous knowledge.</div><div>The main contribution of this research is to clarify how the core concept of social capital has gradually replaced environmental-centered keywords and become a new academic anchor for future research and policy-making. The study concludes with suggestions for future quantitative research focused on measuring the impact of social capital dimensions on residents’ behavioral intentions to engage in sustainable tourism.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34478,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Futures","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 101612"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145798086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Determinants of modern agricultural machinery adoption in Northern Bangladesh: A multivariate probit analysis 孟加拉国北部现代农业机械采用的决定因素:多变量概率分析
IF 4.9 2区 社会学
Sustainable Futures Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101615
Bristy Banik , Hasneen Jahan , Md. Rubel Ahmed , Ravi Nandi , Tamara Jackson , Arifa Jannat
{"title":"Determinants of modern agricultural machinery adoption in Northern Bangladesh: A multivariate probit analysis","authors":"Bristy Banik ,&nbsp;Hasneen Jahan ,&nbsp;Md. Rubel Ahmed ,&nbsp;Ravi Nandi ,&nbsp;Tamara Jackson ,&nbsp;Arifa Jannat","doi":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101615","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101615","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Farm mechanization is expanding in Bangladesh, yet smallholders continue to face constraints such as fragmented landholdings, high machinery costs, limited access to custom hiring services, and insufficient training. This study examines these challenges using secondary data from 5053 households in the Eastern Gangetic Plains collected under the Sustainable and Resilient Farming Systems Intensification project. Although the dataset emphasizes conservation agriculture and contains few machine-specific variables, it remains appropriate for assessing technology adoption in smallholder systems. A subsample of 1761 farmers from Rajshahi and Rangpur districts of Bangladesh was analyzed to assess the joint adoption of four modern machines: the rotavator, laser land leveler, happy seeder, and combine harvester. Unlike studies that consider single technologies, this research investigates how farmers’ adoption decisions interact. The descriptive statistics reveal that 56.8 % of households adopted the rotavator, whereas adoption of the other machines remained below 2.5 %. Multivariate Probit model identified that household size, family labor, off-farm income, machinery ownership, and institutional support generally encouraged adoption, while age, education, and limited familiarity with machinery reduced uptake for some technologies. Correlation results reveal both complementarities and substitution among machines. The findings underscore the need for targeted financial support, training, custom hiring services, and awareness programs to promote inclusive, region-appropriate mechanization. The study adds new empirical evidence by jointly analyzing multiple mechanization choices and clarifying the behavioral and structural conditions needed for sustainable agricultural intensification in smallholder systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34478,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Futures","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 101615"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145798089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate concern, wood’s perceived climate benefits, and attitudes as predictors of intention to live in multi-storey wooden buildings 气候问题,木材的感知气候效益,以及作为多层木结构建筑居住意向预测因素的态度
IF 4.9 2区 社会学
Sustainable Futures Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101617
Anders Roos , Ritva Toivonen , Florencia Franzini , Cecilia Mark-Herbert , Anne M K Toppinen , Camilla Widmark , Anders Qvale Nyrud , Hans Fredrik Hoen
{"title":"Climate concern, wood’s perceived climate benefits, and attitudes as predictors of intention to live in multi-storey wooden buildings","authors":"Anders Roos ,&nbsp;Ritva Toivonen ,&nbsp;Florencia Franzini ,&nbsp;Cecilia Mark-Herbert ,&nbsp;Anne M K Toppinen ,&nbsp;Camilla Widmark ,&nbsp;Anders Qvale Nyrud ,&nbsp;Hans Fredrik Hoen","doi":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101617","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101617","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The built environment is a major contributor to global emissions, making the transition to low-carbon construction materials critical for climate mitigation. Multi-storey wooden buildings (MSWBs) have emerged as a sustainable alternative due to their carbon storage capacity and lower embodied emissions compared to conventional multi-storey buildings. However, consumer acceptability for MSWBs remains uncertain. This study draws on cognitive-motivational consumer models, expectancy-value theory, and Signalling Theory to examine the effect of climate beliefs and concern, belief on climate impact of wood construction, and MSWB attitudes on the intention to live in MSWBs. The relationships are tested using structural equation modelling applying survey data from 7053 respondents across seven European countries. The study finds that stronger climate beliefs and concern enhance perceptions of wood’s climate benefits, which in turn influence both attitudes and housing intentions. However, attitudes toward multi-storey wooden buildings—particularly regarding comfort, health, and functionality—are stronger predictors of intention than beliefs alone, indicating a mediating role of attitudes. Cross-country differences highlight the role of cultural and regulatory contexts. The results suggest that policymakers and industry should emphasize and develop the climate benefits of MSWBs alongside improvements in perceived comfort and functionality. This study advances sustainable housing research by integrating environmental psychology and consumer behaviour perspectives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34478,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Futures","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 101617"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145938531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluating data quality of the sustainable development goals in national innovation demonstration zones, China 中国国家自主创新示范区可持续发展目标数据质量评价
IF 4.9 2区 社会学
Sustainable Futures Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101631
Mingxuan Lyu , Guizhen He , Hong Zhang , Xiaoyu Zhang , Yong Liu
{"title":"Evaluating data quality of the sustainable development goals in national innovation demonstration zones, China","authors":"Mingxuan Lyu ,&nbsp;Guizhen He ,&nbsp;Hong Zhang ,&nbsp;Xiaoyu Zhang ,&nbsp;Yong Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101631","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101631","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Data can better measure progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in a way that is both inclusive and fair. However, several challenges remain, such as insufficient data and poor data quality. As a pivotal part of ensuring high-quality and trustworthy data for evidence-based decision-making and efficient measurement, data quality assessment plays a crucial role. This paper proposes a multidimensional data quality evaluation framework for SDGs data on the basis of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory. Nine quality dimensions are defined. Finally, we distribute questionnaires in 11 National Innovation Demonstration Zones for 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda in China to collect data for importance‒performance analysis (IPA). The results reveal that Huzhou has the highest SDG data quality score of 3.912, followed by Guilin with 3.663. Despite its high score, Huzhou’s data quality still has room for improvement. In contrast, Zaozhuang records the lowest SDG data quality score of 2.039, showing that it is particularly struggling in the ecological dimension. Notably, SDG9 exhibits the least variation (the smallest score disparity) among the 11 municipalities, followed closely by SDG8 and SDG10. IPA reveals the following four quadrants: the advantageous area, maintenance area, opportunity area, and focused improvement area. Xuzhou has the most indices in the advantageous area, whereas Ordos has the least in the opportunity area. The focused improvement area highlights the need for improvement in the quality dimensions of credibility and granularity. The study is valuable for data-based decision-making and continuous evaluation on SDG implementation at local, national, and even global scale.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34478,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Futures","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 101631"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145938525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effect of livelihood diversification on households’ food security: A propensity score analysis 生计多样化对农户粮食安全的影响:倾向得分分析
IF 4.9 2区 社会学
Sustainable Futures Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101632
Ayele Diriba , Dereje Derso , Hakim Hashim
{"title":"Effect of livelihood diversification on households’ food security: A propensity score analysis","authors":"Ayele Diriba ,&nbsp;Dereje Derso ,&nbsp;Hakim Hashim","doi":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101632","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101632","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In Ethiopia, agriculture is crucial for reducing poverty and improving food security among rural households. However, the country continues to face significant food insecurity and vulnerability to famine. Livelihood diversification beyond agriculture is often neglected, contributing less than 17 % to the economy, despite its potential benefits for food security. This research analyzes the impact of livelihood diversification on household food security using a mixed-methods approach. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 384 households across four rural kebeles in the Agarfa district, utilizing semi-structured questionnaires, dietary diversity scores, focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and field observations. Descriptive statistics and inferential methods, including <em>t</em>-tests and Chi-square tests, were applied alongside an econometric model using Propensity Score Matching. The findings show that while households engage in various off-farm and non-farm livelihood strategies, Farm only still constitutes over 83 % of their income. The average Shannon Entropy Index of 0.77 indicates low diversification, with 14.84 % of households experiencing low food security. PSM results demonstrate that, livelihood diversification positively impacts dietary diversity, increasing up to 14.05 % for diversified households. These findings highlight the need for policies that promote livelihood diversification to enhance food security in rural Ethiopia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34478,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Futures","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 101632"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145938607","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing the performance of smart cities in China: A TOPSIS and DEA approach 中国智慧城市绩效评估:TOPSIS和DEA方法
IF 4.9 2区 社会学
Sustainable Futures Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2026.101651
Wei Chen , Jing Quan , Yongjian Zhang , Yao Zhang
{"title":"Assessing the performance of smart cities in China: A TOPSIS and DEA approach","authors":"Wei Chen ,&nbsp;Jing Quan ,&nbsp;Yongjian Zhang ,&nbsp;Yao Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.sftr.2026.101651","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sftr.2026.101651","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As an effective measure to solve the “urban disease”, smart cities have attracted great attention worldwide. A comprehensive and accurate evaluation of China’s smart cities not only helps to promote China’s smart city projects but also has important significance for other countries. This study first constructed an evaluation system widely applicable to China’s smart cities by reviewing the literature and policies. Then, TOPSIS and DEA were used to evaluate the performance and efficiency of 290 cities in China, and then AISM was used to classify 30 provinces to evaluate the construction levels of smart cities in China. The study results demonstrated that the overall performance of Chinese smart cities is insufficient, and the level of knowledge is low. There is no obvious relationship between urban performance and efficiency. Along different dimensions, there are significant differences between cities, presenting a polarized situation. The AISM results indicate that the adversarial hierarchy diagrams of 30 provinces are olive-shaped structures and pyramid-shaped structures. The evaluation results supplement comprehensive analysis of the development of smart cities in China. To some extent, the introduction of the AISM method promotes the development of smart city evaluation methods and improves the smart city evaluation system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34478,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Futures","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 101651"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145938704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Biofibre explorer: An augmented reality (AR) tool to promote circularity through material knowledge 生物纤维探索者:增强现实(AR)工具,通过材料知识促进循环
IF 4.9 2区 社会学
Sustainable Futures Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2026.101648
Ricardo O’Nascimento , Bruna Petreca , Roberta Morrow , Christopher Dawes , Miriam Ribul , Sameer Rahatekar , Sharon Baurley
{"title":"Biofibre explorer: An augmented reality (AR) tool to promote circularity through material knowledge","authors":"Ricardo O’Nascimento ,&nbsp;Bruna Petreca ,&nbsp;Roberta Morrow ,&nbsp;Christopher Dawes ,&nbsp;Miriam Ribul ,&nbsp;Sameer Rahatekar ,&nbsp;Sharon Baurley","doi":"10.1016/j.sftr.2026.101648","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sftr.2026.101648","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Augmented Reality (AR), which overlays digital information on the physical world, is frequently used in textile retail to improve shopping experiences by simulating product appearance and enabling virtual customisation. While these applications foster brand engagement and purchasing decisions, they largely promote consumption rather than encouraging circular behaviours. This study introduces the AR Biofibre Explorer, an innovative tool designed to reconnect consumers with materials and processes by demonstrating the wet spinning process for producing cellulose-based textiles. Through a mixed-methods evaluation, we reveal how the tool enhances understanding of material origins and their applications, promoting informed decisions and circular practices. Aligning with The wellbeing framework for consumer experiences in the circular economy of the textile industry <span><span>[1]</span></span>, the tool incorporates dimensions such as learning, attachment, competence, and playfulness. This research establishes AR as a means to foster sustainability and circularity in fashion by bridging material knowledge gaps, enhancing consumer engagement, and enabling sustainable consumption choices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34478,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Futures","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 101648"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145977491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reassessing the economic implications of environmental protection measures: the case of the EU’s green payments 重新评估环境保护措施的经济影响:以欧盟的绿色支付为例
IF 4.9 2区 社会学
Sustainable Futures Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2026.101679
Konstadinos Mattas , Christos Staboulis , Ahmed Alayidi , George Baourakis
{"title":"Reassessing the economic implications of environmental protection measures: the case of the EU’s green payments","authors":"Konstadinos Mattas ,&nbsp;Christos Staboulis ,&nbsp;Ahmed Alayidi ,&nbsp;George Baourakis","doi":"10.1016/j.sftr.2026.101679","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sftr.2026.101679","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The EU’s Green Payments are widely studied and recognized for their role in environmental protection. Building on this well-established role, the present study attempts to delve into the profound effects of such payments on the balanced regional economic development. This focus is motivated by the ongoing debate surrounding their effectiveness, which reveals a perceived discrepancy between environmental and financial implications. Previous assessments have primarily focused on the direct financial implications for farmers, overlooking their broader regional economic effects. This study addresses this gap by investigating the indirect economic benefits generated through Green Payments, using an Input–Output model to trace their impact on output, income, and employment in the region of Thessaly, Greece. Results demonstrate that the benefits of Green Payments extend beyond direct financial returns, indicating that the evaluation of environmental funding should be multidimensional by considering overall benefits due to economic growth generated by the public expenditure itself. Particularly, it is illustrated that Green Payments produce, directly and indirectly, an estimated economic output that exceeds the expenditures for their implementation. On the outcome of policy, results overturn the prevailing perception that green-related payments are detrimental in financial terms and urge the need for more comprehensive approaches when assessing relevant measures to support better documented policy making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34478,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Futures","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 101679"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145977446","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Why direct payments are more effective for combatting poverty than fair prices 为什么直接支付比公平价格更能有效地消除贫困
IF 4.9 2区 社会学
Sustainable Futures Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101575
Ruerd Ruben
{"title":"Why direct payments are more effective for combatting poverty than fair prices","authors":"Ruerd Ruben","doi":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101575","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101575","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Voluntary certification initiatives for tropical commodities intend to reduce rural poverty by guaranteeing higher prices to local smallholder farmers and paying premiums to their local communities. These market-based strategies are important to support farmer organization, but the effects on household income and food security remained fairly modest. Reforms of market mechanism are necessary but usually not sufficient for supporting smallholder farmers. Novel initiatives relying on regular direct payments by companies that provide cash transfers to smallholder families show more tangible impact on improvements in their livelihoods. We compare the theories of change underlying fair trade programs and direct payments initiatives through regular cash transfers and assess the evidence regarding their impact. Direct payments turn out to be more effective because of their focus on female recipients that give priority to expenditures oriented towards household consumption and resilience. Moreover, lower transaction costs for their delivery by companies contribute to the success.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34478,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Futures","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 101575"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145658777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Agent-based modelling approach to explore efficacy of policies for heat pump uptake 基于主体的建模方法探索热泵吸收政策的有效性
IF 4.9 2区 社会学
Sustainable Futures Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101601
Wen Xu, Meysam Qadrdan
{"title":"Agent-based modelling approach to explore efficacy of policies for heat pump uptake","authors":"Wen Xu,&nbsp;Meysam Qadrdan","doi":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101601","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101601","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Decarbonising residential heating is essential for the UK to meet its climate targets, as home heating remains a major carbon emitter. This study employs an agent-based model (ABM), integrating logistic regression and utility theory, to simulate UK household adoption of heat pumps from 2021 to 2050. The model captures economic, psychological, and social factors, calibrated with national survey data and historical adoption trends to align long-term diffusion trajectories. Under a business-as-usual scenario reflecting 2025 policies and prices, the model projects 8.7 million households (30.8 %) will adopt heat pumps by 2050. Increasing government grants to £11,500 could raise adoption to 54 %, while a 20 % electricity price reduction may yield a further 12.2 % increase. Logistic regression identifies homeownership, age, cost awareness, and social influence as key predictors. While financial incentives accelerate uptake, they are insufficient alone to meet net-zero targets. Policies must also address behavioural barriers—such as limited awareness, negative perceptions, or perceived hassle—and leverage social networks by promoting peer learning, showcasing early adopters, and supporting community initiatives. This research highlights the utility of ABM for designing decarbonisation strategies that integrate economic, behavioural, and social dimensions of household decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34478,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Futures","volume":"11 ","pages":"Article 101601"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145798083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
相关产品
×
本文献相关产品
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术官方微信
小红书