Demand forecasting and PV/EV-integrated energy system modeling for achieving a sustainable island

IF 4.9 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures Pub Date : 2025-06-14 DOI:10.1016/j.sftr.2025.100857

Mohammad Hasan Ghodusinejad, Hossein Yousefi, Mohammad Sotoodeh

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Due to the increasing demand in the electric energy and transportation sector, future planning for these sectors is essential. This paper deals with forecasting electricity and gasoline demand for the Qeshm island located in the south of Iran and modeling its energy system. In this regard, using a time series analysis model, ARIMA, the electricity and gasoline demand of the island in 2030 is forecasted. Then, by compiling different scenarios for the island's power and transportation network, supply and demand modeling for the island's energy system is conducted. Finally, using a multi-criteria decision-making method, the energy scenarios are ranked and the best one is selected. The results of the research showed that increasing the share of solar energy as well as electric vehicles in the island's energy and transportation network, from the worst to the best case, has a direct relationship with reducing energy consumption (up to 17.3 %), reducing emissions (up to 23.8 %) and, as a result, increasing the sustainability of the island. Also, investing only in the development of thermal power plants, regardless of renewable sources and electric transportation, will reduce the economic and environmental efficiency of the island's energy system in the long term.

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实现可持续岛屿的需求预测和光伏/电动汽车集成能源系统建模

由于电力能源和运输部门的需求不断增加，这些部门的未来规划是必不可少的。本文对位于伊朗南部的Qeshm岛的电力和汽油需求进行了预测，并对其能源系统进行了建模。为此，利用时间序列分析模型ARIMA，对2030年岛内的电力和汽油需求进行了预测。然后，通过编制岛内电力和交通网络的不同情景，对岛内能源系统进行供需建模。最后，采用多准则决策方法对能源方案进行排序，选出最佳方案。研究结果表明，从最差到最好的情况下，增加太阳能和电动汽车在岛上能源和交通网络中的份额，与减少能源消耗（高达17.3%），减少排放（高达23.8%）有直接关系，因此，增加了岛屿的可持续性。此外，不考虑可再生能源和电力运输，只投资于发展火力发电厂，从长远来看将降低该岛能源系统的经济和环境效率。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Sustainable Futures Social Sciences-Sociology and Political Science

CiteScore

9.30

自引率

1.80%

发文量

审稿时长

71 days

期刊介绍： Sustainable Futures: is a journal focused on the intersection of sustainability, environment and technology from various disciplines in social sciences, and their larger implications for corporation, government, education institutions, regions and society both at present and in the future. It provides an advanced platform for studies related to sustainability and sustainable development in society, economics, environment, and culture. The scope of the journal is broad and encourages interdisciplinary research, as well as welcoming theoretical and practical research from all methodological approaches.