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Population Growth and Economic Development 人口增长与经济发展
PSN: Population & Family Planning (Topic) Pub Date : 2018-12-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3304842
Philip Lawton
{"title":"Population Growth and Economic Development","authors":"Philip Lawton","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3304842","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3304842","url":null,"abstract":"This research note describes a cross-sectional study of the relationship between population growth and GDP growth across 181 countries, including subsets of 51 emerging market countries and 36 low-income countries. The bivariate model produces a statistically significant result only for the entire sample, while a multivariate model additionally controlling for total factor productivity and gross fixed capital formation generates statistically significant betas for all countries and the subset of emerging market countries. Thus, although the model with three independent variables (population growth, total factor productivity, and gross fixed capital formation) does not apply to low-income countries, it contributes to an understanding of GDP growth in emerging market countries (r-squared = 0.56). The author tentatively concludes that population growth is conditionally associated with macroeconomic development where investments in technology support higher productivity.","PeriodicalId":306953,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Population & Family Planning (Topic)","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116586497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
From Population Growth to Firm Demographics: Implications for Concentration, Entrepreneurship and the Labor Share 从人口增长到企业人口统计:对集中度、企业家精神和劳动份额的影响
PSN: Population & Family Planning (Topic) Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.3386/W25382
Hugo Hopenhayn, Julian Neira, Rish Singhania
{"title":"From Population Growth to Firm Demographics: Implications for Concentration, Entrepreneurship and the Labor Share","authors":"Hugo Hopenhayn, Julian Neira, Rish Singhania","doi":"10.3386/W25382","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W25382","url":null,"abstract":"In the U.S., large firms now account for a greater share of economic activity, new firms are being created at slower rates, and workers are receiving a smaller share of GDP. Changes in population growth provide a unified quantitative explanation. A decrease in population growth lowers firm entry rates, shifting the firm‐age distribution toward older firms. Firm aging accounts for (i) the concentration of employment in large firms, (ii) and trends in average firm size and exit rates, key determinants of firm entry rates. Feedback effects from firm demographics generate two‐thirds of the effect. Prior to the decrease, entry rates rose steadily reflecting the earlier baby boom. The glut of firms due to the baby boom lead to rich transitional dynamics within the feedback effects, accounting for more than half the total change. Baby boom induced changes in the firm‐age distribution provide a driving force for the post‐WWII rise and fall in the aggregate labor share. Ignoring changes in population growth attributes all the long run decline in entry rates to a decrease in firm exit rates, which in reality have been only one‐third as large.","PeriodicalId":306953,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Population & Family Planning (Topic)","volume":"102 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122507517","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 75
Role of Migration in Demographic Behaviour of Modern Russian Women 移民在现代俄罗斯妇女人口行为中的作用
PSN: Population & Family Planning (Topic) Pub Date : 2018-08-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3235177
Alisa Kim, E. Mitrofanova
{"title":"Role of Migration in Demographic Behaviour of Modern Russian Women","authors":"Alisa Kim, E. Mitrofanova","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3235177","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3235177","url":null,"abstract":"The study is devoted to the investigation of the interrelations between migration and demographic behavior (partnerships, marriages, and childbearing) of modern Russian women. The quantitative research conducted on 2,229 individual biographies of women between 19 and 43 implies the use of descriptive analysis and Event History Analysis (Cox regression) within the Life-Course Approach. The results of the research are viewed within the framework of the hypotheses explaining the impact of migration on demographic behavior already described in scientific literature. The Russian female population is characterized as mostly immobile (more than two thirds of women never experienced migration, at least before age 43). The paper discusses various economic and demographic factors affecting the risks of occurrence of demographic events in migrant and non-migrant life careers. The disruption hypothesis describing the negative effect of migration on marital and reproductive behavior, is partially disproved: 1st migration exhibits no effect on the risk of 1st childbearing or 1st partnership among adult women; the risk of 1st marriage is negatively affected among women after 21. The selection and the interrelations-of-events hypotheses may explain the demographic behavior of the two suggested groups of migrant women in Russia: educational migrants and marriage migrants.","PeriodicalId":306953,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Population & Family Planning (Topic)","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130584439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Principle of Population and the Malthusian Trap 人口原理与马尔萨斯陷阱
PSN: Population & Family Planning (Topic) Pub Date : 2018-04-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3492297
Tim Lueger
{"title":"The Principle of Population and the Malthusian Trap","authors":"Tim Lueger","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3492297","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3492297","url":null,"abstract":"In spite of two centuries of extensive debate, a consistent framework of the classical theory of population on which economists can universally agree has not been established. This means that either the theory lacks consistency or it has been misunderstood in important ways. This paper attempts to settle this issue by arguing that the latter was the case, revealing prevailing misconceptions. Since a large amount of these misconceptions most probably arose from the lack of a consistent nomenclature, the paper intends to clarify the classical theory of population by employing unambiguous definitions of the principle of population, the Malthusian trap, positive checks and preventive checks to population. The classical theory of population can then be applied to analyze the transition from economic stagnation to economic growth. As a result, numerous current theories trying to explain the transition to growth that are based on an increase of pro- \u0000duction will prove secondary when compared to the great preventive check.","PeriodicalId":306953,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Population & Family Planning (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130084841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Age and High-Growth Entrepreneurship 年龄与高增长创业
PSN: Population & Family Planning (Topic) Pub Date : 2018-04-01 DOI: 10.3386/w24489
Pierre Azoulay, Benjamin F. Jones, J. D. Kim, Javier Miranda
{"title":"Age and High-Growth Entrepreneurship","authors":"Pierre Azoulay, Benjamin F. Jones, J. D. Kim, Javier Miranda","doi":"10.3386/w24489","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w24489","url":null,"abstract":"Many observers, and many investors, believe that young people are especially likely to produce the most successful new firms. Integrating administrative data on firms, workers, and owners, we study start-ups systematically in the United States and find that successful entrepreneurs are middle-aged, not young. The mean age at founding for the 1-in-1,000 fastest growing new ventures is 45.0. The findings are similar when considering high-technology sectors, entrepreneurial hubs, and successful firm exits. Prior experience in the specific industry predicts much greater rates of entrepreneurial success. These findings strongly reject common hypotheses that emphasize youth as a key trait of successful entrepreneurs. (JEL G24, J14, L26, M13, O31)","PeriodicalId":306953,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Population & Family Planning (Topic)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134211422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 223
Global Inequality in Length of Life: 1950–2015 全球寿命不平等:1950-2015
PSN: Population & Family Planning (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-11-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3076786
V. Jordá, M. Niño-Zarazúa
{"title":"Global Inequality in Length of Life: 1950–2015","authors":"V. Jordá, M. Niño-Zarazúa","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3076786","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3076786","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a broad picture of national, regional and global trends of inequality in length of life over the period 1950–2015. We use data on life tables from World Population Prospects to develop a comprehensive database of a battery of inequality measures for 201 countries at five-year intervals over the period under analysis. We estimate both absolute and relative inequality measures which have the property of being additively decomposable. This property makes the database remarkably flexible because overall inequality can be computed for any group of countries using only the information included in our database. The decomposition analysis reveals that differences in life expectancy between countries account for a very small portion of the observed changes in global inequality in length of life, evolution of which is large driven by within-country variation. Our estimates indicate that inequality in length of life has decreased sharply since 1950, a reduction that can be largely attributed to the substantial progress made in reducing child mortality worldwide. We also observe a degree of heterogeneity in the distributional patters of inequality in length of life across world regions.","PeriodicalId":306953,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Population & Family Planning (Topic)","volume":"287 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123381478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Small-Area Variation of Fertility Rates 生育率的小区域变化
PSN: Population & Family Planning (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-06-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2981593
J. Lauridsen
{"title":"Small-Area Variation of Fertility Rates","authors":"J. Lauridsen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2981593","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2981593","url":null,"abstract":"Alike most of the Western world, the Danish fertility rate declined throughout the 20th century simultaneous to economic growth. This development, which conflicts with economic intuition, has been denoted the fertility paradox, and several studies have been devoted to resolve it. The present study analyzes the geographic variation across Danish municipalities in the fertility rate during the years 1982 to 2004. Several factors commonly believed to explain the variation in the fertility rate is found to be exerted to considerable regional variation. A model linking the fertility rate to several economic determinants is established and further modified to capture geographic small-area variation. Specifically, a positive correlation between regional levels of income and fertility is found, which contradicts the fertility paradox. Thus, the necessity of separating small-area and dynamic variation, aiming at obtain a proper interpretation of the link between fertility and its determinants, is demonstrated.","PeriodicalId":306953,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Population & Family Planning (Topic)","volume":"120 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116891249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Access and Use of Contraception and its Effects on Women's Outcomes in the U.S 避孕方法的获取和使用及其对美国妇女结局的影响
PSN: Population & Family Planning (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.3386/W23465
M. Bailey, J. Lindo
{"title":"Access and Use of Contraception and its Effects on Women's Outcomes in the U.S","authors":"M. Bailey, J. Lindo","doi":"10.3386/W23465","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W23465","url":null,"abstract":"Changes in childbearing affect almost every aspect of human existence. Over the last fifty years, American women have experienced dramatic changes in the ease and convenience of timing and limiting childbearing, ranging from the introduction of the birth control pill and the legalization of abortion to more recent availability of long-acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs). This article chronicles these changes, provides descriptive evidence regarding trends in use, and reviews the literature linking them to changes in childbearing and women’s economic outcomes.","PeriodicalId":306953,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Population & Family Planning (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129374188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
Urban Water Disinfection and Mortality Decline in Developing Countries 发展中国家城市水消毒与死亡率下降
PSN: Population & Family Planning (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3062905
S. Bhalotra, Alberto Díaz-Cayeros, Grant Miller, A. Miranda, Atheendar S. Venkataramani
{"title":"Urban Water Disinfection and Mortality Decline in Developing Countries","authors":"S. Bhalotra, Alberto Díaz-Cayeros, Grant Miller, A. Miranda, Atheendar S. Venkataramani","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3062905","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3062905","url":null,"abstract":"Historically, improvements in the quality of municipal drinking water made important contributions to mortality decline in wealthy countries. However, water disinfection often does not produce equivalent benefits in developing countries today. We investigate this puzzle by analyzing an abrupt, large-scale municipal water disinfection program in Mexico in 1991 that increased the share of Mexico's population receiving chlorinated water from 55% to 85% within six months. We find that on average, the program was associated with a 37 to 48% decline in diarrheal disease deaths among children (over 23,000 averted deaths per year) and was highly cost-effective (about $1,310 per life year saved). However, we also find evidence that age (degradation) of water pipes and lack of complementary sanitation infrastructure play important roles in attenuating these benefits. Countervailing behavioral responses, although present, appear to be less important.","PeriodicalId":306953,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Population & Family Planning (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128720432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 27
Paid Parental Leave and Child Development: Evidence from the 2007 German Parental Benefit Reform and Administrative Data 带薪育儿假与儿童发展:来自2007年德国父母福利改革和行政数据的证据
PSN: Population & Family Planning (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2941314
Mathias Huebener, Daniel Kuehnle, C. Spieß
{"title":"Paid Parental Leave and Child Development: Evidence from the 2007 German Parental Benefit Reform and Administrative Data","authors":"Mathias Huebener, Daniel Kuehnle, C. Spieß","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2941314","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2941314","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the effects of a substantial change in publicly funded paid parental leave in Germany on child development and socio-economic development gaps. For children born before January 1, 2007, parental leave benefits were means-tested and paid for up to 24 months after childbirth. For children born thereafter, parental leave benefits were earnings-related and only paid for up to 14 months. Higher-income households benefited more from the reform than low-income households. We study the reform effects on children's language skills, motor skills, socio-emotional stability, and school readiness using administrative data from mandatory school entrance examinations at age six and a difference-in-differences design. We find no impact of the reform on child development and socio-economic development gaps. The effects are precisely estimated and robust to various model specifications and sample definitions. Our resultssuggest that such substantial changes in parental leave benefits are unlikely to impact children's development. These findings are consistent with recent studies showing that temporary unrestricted transfers and maternal part-time employment have a limited impact on parental investments in their children.","PeriodicalId":306953,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Population & Family Planning (Topic)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121967548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
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