Applied Energy最新文献

Detection and isolation of battery charging cyberattacks via Koopman operator 基于Koopman算子的电池充电网络攻击检测与隔离

IF 11 1区工程技术

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126695

Sanchita Ghosh, Tanushree Roy

{"title":"Detection and isolation of battery charging cyberattacks via Koopman operator","authors":"Sanchita Ghosh, Tanushree Roy","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126695","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126695","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The cloud-controller for electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) relies heavily on receiving accurate sensor measurements from the battery of the electric vehicle (EV) and sending precise charging actuation to achieve optimal charging while maintaining grid stability. However, an adversary can corrupt these signals as they are transmitted via a communication network. This motivates our research to detect cyberattacks on both the actuation signal and the sensor measurements, as well as isolate or distinguish between them. While the problem of attack isolation based on system model and measurement is generally ill-posed, it is crucial for dispatching appropriate remedial measures following an attack detection. Thus, we propose a model-free Koopman operator-based cyberattack detection and isolation algorithm via residual generation. Our proposed algorithm is trained online using rate-limited voltage, temperature, and charging current data from high-fidelity battery charging experiments in Python Battery Mathematical Modeling (PyBaMM) and the ‘liionpack’ package. In our extensive case studies of prevalent cyberattacks, the algorithm consistently generates real-time detection-isolation flags without any prior model knowledge or historical data of the system. The algorithm is easily generalizable and can be seamlessly applied to various levels of data granularity (cell or pack-level), cell chemistries, and pack configurations, without requiring significant modifications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"401 ","pages":"Article 126695"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145026945","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impact of people flows on energy consumption in an office building in Tokyo using a state–space model 基于状态空间模型的东京办公大楼人员流动对能源消耗的影响

IF 11 1区工程技术

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126697

Ryuta Tsurumi , Takahiro Yoshida

{"title":"Impact of people flows on energy consumption in an office building in Tokyo using a state–space model","authors":"Ryuta Tsurumi , Takahiro Yoshida","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126697","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126697","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the dynamics of energy consumption in buildings, which are closely related to occupant behavior, is important for mitigating climate change in urban areas. Obtaining information on the flow of people using GPS data has become possible in recent years. In this study, we used the state–space model to quantitatively clarify the relationship between (a) heat load, the electricity consumption used for the (b) heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC) fans, (c) outlets, and (d) lighting as a dependent variables, and occupants in the building as an explanatory variable. In addition, we added outdoor temperature (relevant only to (a) and (b) in relation to HVAC) and a weekday daytime dummy as explanatory variables, performed model selection, and estimated the variables after controlling for their influence. Consequently, in summer, a 1 % increase in the number of people within a building resulted in energy increases of 0.114 <span><math><mo>±</mo></math></span> 0.051 % (mean <span><math><mo>±</mo></math></span> S.E.) for the (a) heat load, 0.218 <span><math><mo>±</mo></math></span> 0.032 % for the (b) HVAC fan, 0.024 <span><math><mo>±</mo></math></span> 0.005 % for (c) outlets, and 0.038 <span><math><mo>±</mo></math></span> 0.010 % for (d) lighting. In winter, a 1 % increase in the number of people resulted in energy increases of 0.009 <span><math><mo>±</mo></math></span> 0.033 % for the (a) heat load, 0.212 <span><math><mo>±</mo></math></span> 0.034 % for the (b) HVAC fan, 0.031 <span><math><mo>±</mo></math></span> 0.006 % for (c) outlets, and 0.039 <span><math><mo>±</mo></math></span> 0.010 % for (d) lighting. This study clarified the association between energy consumption and the influence of people in a building. These results are useful for precisely reflecting the influence of occupant behavior in urban building energy modeling.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"401 ","pages":"Article 126697"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145026944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Optimizing integrated energy systems: A multi-scenario scheduling approach with stepped carbon trading and two-stage hydrogen production under uncertainty 综合能源系统优化：不确定条件下多级碳交易和两阶段制氢的多场景调度方法

IF 11 1区工程技术

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126704

Yifan Zhang , Yaoyao He

{"title":"Optimizing integrated energy systems: A multi-scenario scheduling approach with stepped carbon trading and two-stage hydrogen production under uncertainty","authors":"Yifan Zhang , Yaoyao He","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126704","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126704","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The uncertainty of building loads and renewable energy sources poses significant challenges in optimizing Integrated Energy Systems (IES). This paper introduces an operational framework for a multi-energy IES that integrates cold, heat, power, and hydrogen, balancing environmental and economic considerations. This approach refines traditional electricity-to-gas conversion with a two-stage system incorporating hydrogen production, aiming to lower environmental impact and boost sustainability by replacing carbon emissions with hydrogen, and enhancing renewable energy utilization. For managing diverse building load data, we apply an innovative kernel-based iterative self-organizing data analysis algorithm (K-<span>l</span>-ISODATA) to analyze load profiles, offering precise daily load data for IES scheduling optimization. Through a case study in a Chinese industrial park, the results show that K-<span>l</span>-ISODATA efficiently clusters high-dimensional load curves sampled every five minutes. In the six typical daily scenarios it generates, hydrogen substitution notably reduces carbon emissions and operational costs, validating the effectiveness of the tiered carbon trading mechanism in curbing emissions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"401 ","pages":"Article 126704"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145026946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mining urban sustainable performance: Unlocking the energy-saving potential of office buildings through smart control technology usage 挖掘城市可持续绩效：通过智能控制技术的使用，释放办公建筑的节能潜力

IF 11 1区工程技术

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126630

Xiaoya Song , Haiyan Lu , Kechuan Dong , Yanxiu Jin , Qing Yu , Haoran Zhang

{"title":"Mining urban sustainable performance: Unlocking the energy-saving potential of office buildings through smart control technology usage","authors":"Xiaoya Song , Haiyan Lu , Kechuan Dong , Yanxiu Jin , Qing Yu , Haoran Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126630","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126630","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The building sector accounts for approximately 40 % of global energy consumption and 30 % of greenhouse gas emissions, with office buildings constituting a major share of energy use within the commercial sector. Smart control technologies present substantial potential for energy reduction by accommodating flexible operational schedules and diverse functional demands. This study classifies Tokyo into three urban zones, including core, vertical, and peri-office, based on established urban planning principles. Among them, the Core Zone exhibits the greatest potential for energy savings, followed by the Vertical and Peri-office zones. Seasonal analysis reveals that energy-saving potential peaks in summer, while significant daytime savings are observed in the Core and Vertical Zones due to elevated lighting demands shaped by hybrid post-pandemic work patterns. From a policy perspective, these findings underscore the need for zone-specific energy strategies that align with spatial variations in demand and savings potential. Moreover, adaptive smart control technologies should be promoted to respond effectively to both seasonal and diurnal fluctuations in energy use. Integrating these temporal dynamics into policy frameworks is essential for optimizing building performance and advancing urban energy resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"401 ","pages":"Article 126630"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145019822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Techno-economic analysis of deuterium-tritium magnetic confinement fusion power plants 氘-氚磁约束聚变电站技术经济分析

IF 11 1区工程技术

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126567

Layla S. Araiinejad, Koroush Shirvan

{"title":"Techno-economic analysis of deuterium-tritium magnetic confinement fusion power plants","authors":"Layla S. Araiinejad, Koroush Shirvan","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126567","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126567","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This techno-economic analysis of deuterium-tritium magnetic confinement fusion power plants (FPP) aims to assess the economic viability and scalability of FPPs in addressing global energy challenges and climate change. Amidst a backdrop of substantial investments in fusion technology, totaling $7.1 billion to date, this study critically assesses the Nth-of-a-kind overnight capital costs of a FPP that hosts ARAI, a 350 MWe tokamak reactor based on the MIT ARC fusion concept. The overnight capital costs for ARAI-FPP are estimated to range between $8800/kW and $22,200/kW, with this variation largely driven by differing regulatory and manufacturing assumptions. The overall cost breakdown is found to be similar to past and recent fusion literature, where the direct cost of fusion reactor equipment is the largest cost driver. The levelized cost of electricity, which includes projections for operation and maintenance costs, are estimated to be between $140/MWh and $550/MWh. The findings aim to deepen the understanding of absolute and relative cost drivers in fusion energy and suggest strategies to improve its economic feasibility. The analysis underscores the crucial impact of fabrication costs and regulatory frameworks on cost dynamics, while also recognizing the substantial uncertainty in FPP cost estimates due to the low technology readiness level of several key components.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"401 ","pages":"Article 126567"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145019821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Statistical analysis of floating hybrid wind–wave energy systems 浮式混合风波能系统的统计分析

IF 11 1区工程技术

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126669

Nataliia Y. Sergiienko , Lei Xue , Leandro S.P. da Silva , Boyin Ding , Benjamin S. Cazzolato

{"title":"Statistical analysis of floating hybrid wind–wave energy systems","authors":"Nataliia Y. Sergiienko , Lei Xue , Leandro S.P. da Silva , Boyin Ding , Benjamin S. Cazzolato","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126669","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126669","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent advances in the development of floating offshore wind turbines have also generated great interest in hybrid wind–wave energy systems due to the resource and technological complementarity of both systems. Over the past decade, a large amount of research has been conducted to uncover the benefits of combining floating wind turbines with wave energy converters and to propose and evaluate new hybrid system designs. The aim of this study is to identify trends, patterns and insights of the hybrid wind–wave energy systems by collating, reviewing and analysing the data available in the literature. The statistical analysis is presented for the design aspects of the hybrid wind–wave system, power production of wave energy converters, methodologies used to investigate the hybrid system dynamics, and the reported findings. The analysis indicates that research on hybrid systems lags behind floating platform development by approximately five years, with a predominant focus on 5 MW wind turbines installed on semi-submersible platforms and coupled with heaving wave energy converters. However, hybridisation efforts must keep pace with advances in modern wind energy technologies. The share of wave energy in the total power production of a hybrid platform is less than 10 %, and the median rated power of a single WEC is close to 100 kW. Wave energy converters do not tend to change the wind turbine power production, while an increase in platform motions was observed, also negatively affecting loading on mooring lines. Therefore, new designs need to investigate motion suppression in order to explore additional benefits of the hybridisation, such as mooring and tower bending load reduction. Furthermore, integrating wave energy with a floating wind turbine increases the levelised cost of energy of the combined project, underlying the challenges in providing a techno-economically viable solution, which also should be considered in the design process.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"401 ","pages":"Article 126669"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145009874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Designing principles of deep eutectic solvents for sustainable recycling of spent lithium-ion batteries 废锂离子电池可持续回收用深共晶溶剂的设计原理

IF 11 1区工程技术

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126723

Shangqing Chen , Yaqi Zhang , Fanpeng Cheng , Yi Huang , Liwei Cheng , Huijuan Guo , Junfeng Wang , Lijuan Shi , Qun Yi

{"title":"Designing principles of deep eutectic solvents for sustainable recycling of spent lithium-ion batteries","authors":"Shangqing Chen , Yaqi Zhang , Fanpeng Cheng , Yi Huang , Liwei Cheng , Huijuan Guo , Junfeng Wang , Lijuan Shi , Qun Yi","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126723","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126723","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The exponential growth of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) waste, coupled with the severe environmental and economic limitations of conventional pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical recycling, necessitates sustainable alternatives. Deep eutectic solvents (DESs) have emerged as promising green solvents for spent LIBs recycling due to their tunability, low cost, low volatility, and potential biodegradability. This review elucidates the fundamental chemical principles governing DESs, particularly their hydrogen-bond-driven self-assembly and structure-property-performance relationships. We critically analyze recent advances in the rational design of DESs for efficient and selective metal leaching, separation, and direct cathode regeneration from spent LIBs. Key design strategies include component engineering (e.g., binary/ternary HBA/HBD combinations, water/additive modulation), coordination environment regulation, and reducibility modulation targeting specific cathode chemistries (LCO, NCM, LFP). Furthermore, we evaluate the greenness and technoeconomic viability of DESs processes, highlighting their potential for lower energy consumption, reduced emissions, and high-value product regeneration. Despite impressive lab-scale achievements, challenges in scalability, DESs regeneration, and complex waste stream handling persist. Future research must bridge fundamental understanding with industrial implementation to realize the full potential of DESs for securing the critical materials supply chain essential for an electrified future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"401 ","pages":"Article 126723"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145019820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Recent advances in lignin-based gel electrolytes for energy storage 木质素基凝胶电解质储能研究进展

IF 11 1区工程技术

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126711

Xiao-Yu Li , Han-Min Wang , Yu-Chen Han , Jing Li , Ming-Cong Yang , Qing-Xi Hou , Chuanling Si

{"title":"Recent advances in lignin-based gel electrolytes for energy storage","authors":"Xiao-Yu Li , Han-Min Wang , Yu-Chen Han , Jing Li , Ming-Cong Yang , Qing-Xi Hou , Chuanling Si","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126711","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126711","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the increasing demand for electrical energy worldwide, electrical energy storage devices have become urgent and essential owing to their flexibility. Renewable biomass-based electrochemical materials are widely recognized as promising solutions for replacing traditional fossil materials. As the most abundant aromatic polymer in nature, lignin has been increasingly utilized as a multifunctional energy storage material due to its unique macromolecular structure. Lignin-based gel electrolytes (LGEs) have been successfully employed in flexible electronic devices, capacitors and metal batteries, enhancing their potential as energy storage materials. This review summarizes recent research advances in lignin-based gel electrolytes (LGEs), providing a comprehensive overview of the conductive mechanism of lignin-based green gel electrolytes and their potential application in energy storage devices (supercapacitors, lithium-ion batteries, zinc-ion batteries and other metallic batteries). Further, this review proposes the current challenges faced by LGE applications in energy storage devices and outlines key future research directions. This review aims to provide more feasible insights for the future upgrading and application of LGE in green energy devices, thus promoting the sustainable development of lignin-based functional materials.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"401 ","pages":"Article 126711"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145004041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Analyzing dynamics of crude oil price amid sudden events and intervention measures: Insights from a Prophet-QR model 突发事件中原油价格动态分析及干预措施：来自Prophet-QR模型的启示

IF 11 1区工程技术

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126715

Xingxuan Zhuo , Jianjiang Ye , Han Liu , Feng Lin

{"title":"Analyzing dynamics of crude oil price amid sudden events and intervention measures: Insights from a Prophet-QR model","authors":"Xingxuan Zhuo , Jianjiang Ye , Han Liu , Feng Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126715","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126715","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Given that crude oil prices are influenced by the complex interplay of political, economic, and social events, leading to rapid, substantial, and unpredictable fluctuations, the associated risk has received considerable attention. How can we quantitatively characterize the impact of these sudden events and accurately measure crude oil price risk? To achieve this objective, the paper introduces the Prophet Quantile Regression (Prophet-QR) model. This model not only analyzes the impact of sudden events on crude oil prices but also evaluates the effectiveness of strategies implemented to control these fluctuations. It also forecasts the future distribution of crude oil prices and measures both the potential upside and downside risks associated with crude oil price volatility. By employing a multi-step ahead rolling forecasting approach and the proposed Prophet-QR model, this study draws several empirical conclusions. First, the Prophet-QR model demonstrates superior accuracy in prediction. Second, sudden events, such as the Iraq war and the Libyan war, have a profound impact on crude oil prices, causing the oil price at risk (OaR) to rise sharply. Third, the implementation of oil price intervention measures, such as production cuts and strategic reserve releases, is highly effective in mitigating the adverse effects of sudden events, thereby normalizing the OaR. Continuously monitoring OaR fluctuations supports informed policymaking and effectively reduces the adverse impacts of sudden events on future crude oil prices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"401 ","pages":"Article 126715"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145004145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Investment decision model for CO2 utilization projects: An empirical study on CO2 mineralization curing CO2利用项目投资决策模型：基于CO2矿化固化的实证研究

IF 11 1区工程技术

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126699

Yi-Zhuo Ji , Jia-Ning Kang , Lan-Cui Liu , Xiao-Xi Tian , Yun-Long Zhang , Yi-Ming Wei

{"title":"Investment decision model for CO2 utilization projects: An empirical study on CO2 mineralization curing","authors":"Yi-Zhuo Ji , Jia-Ning Kang , Lan-Cui Liu , Xiao-Xi Tian , Yun-Long Zhang , Yi-Ming Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126699","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126699","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The investment decision of CO<sub>2</sub> utilization projects faces complexity arising from sunk costs, return uncertainty, timing flexibility, and divergent sub-technology learning rates. Existing research largely focuses on single-dimensional uncertainty analysis, which fails to adequately address the combined effects of technological, carbon price, and market uncertainties, leading to potentially inaccurate investment valuations. To address this limitation, this study proposes an integrated analytic framework that integrates a component-based technological learning model with a trinomial tree model and Geometric Brownian Motion, which can simultaneously capture the dynamics of carbon and product prices, and account for heterogeneous learning rates across key technological components, and determine the optimal project investment timing under uncertainty. Applying this framework to a carbonation-cured concrete case study reveals an optimal investment window before 2040, empirical results show that under a high learning scenario,.the operational cost of emerging components decreases by up to 46.2 %, higher than that of other mature components. CCU product price volatility increases the critical carbon price, while a positive drift rate significantly reduces the investment threshold, though its impact diminishes beyond a drift rate of 0.05. Ultimately, the real options model generates a valuation premium of up to ¥6.1 billion compared to the static NPV, validating the value of deferred flexibility. Investment timing analysis reveals a delay of 3–4 years under volatility and exhibits a non-monotonic shift with increasing drift. This method provides quantitative guidance for low-carbon technology investment under uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"401 ","pages":"Article 126699"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144996746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0