中华流行病学杂志最新文献

{"title":"[Preliminary preparation and framework construction for developing clinical prediction models].","authors":"Z C Ye, J H Wang, Q Lu, P Xue, Y Jiang","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250114-00038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250114-00038","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Clinical prediction models, which utilize clinical data and statistical methods, aim to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of medical decision-making and improve patient health outcomes. These models play a crucial role in optimizing healthcare decisions and tailoring treatments to individual needs. However, many studies currently face systemic challenges during the development process, including unclear model design objectives, redundant model construction, lack of clinical relevance in variable selection, and irregular data preprocessing. These issues finally lead to reduced model performance and limited clinical applicability. To address these challenges, this study systematically reviews relevant literature, including articles from the <i>BMJ</i>, and draws on practical research experience to propose a structured preparation process. This process aims to provide a scientific guiding framework for model development, ensuring the efficiency of subsequent model construction and the accuracy of predictions, thus laying a foundation for the application and advancement of clinical prediction models.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 8","pages":"1438-1445"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144971824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Trends in case fatality of hemorrhagic stroke and ischemic stroke in China, 2015-2019].","authors":"X R Chen, J Wu, L Hou, X N Cai, Z Long, L X Yan, L M Wang","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20241118-00730","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20241118-00730","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To present the epidemiological characteristics of ≤28 days case fatality in both hemorrhagic stroke (HS) and ischemic stroke (IS) patients in national cardiovascular disease surveillance areas from 2015 to 2019. <b>Methods:</b> Data on all new patients with stroke and ≤28 days outcomes from 2015 to 2019 were from the China Registry of Cardiovascular Events, which was established in 2014, covering 100 counties (cities, districts) in 31 provinces in China. Poisson regression was used to analyze the annual trend of ≤28 days case fatality. The age-standardized case fatality was directly calculated based on all new stroke onset. <b>Results:</b> In total, 112 069 deaths in HS patients ≤28 days after the onset, as well as 94 373 in IS patients, were identified during the study period. In 2019, the ≤28 days case fatality rate in HS patients was 4.75 times that of IS patients (37.08% <i>vs.</i> 7.80%), as well as that 4.06 times in urban areas (30.13% <i>vs.</i> 7.43%) and 5.30 times in rural areas (42.63% <i>vs.</i> 8.05%), respectively. Thus, in rural areas, HS patients showed 41.49% higher ≤28 days case fatality rate than that in urban areas, as well as 8.34% higher in IS patients. Those ≤28 days case fatality in both stroke subtypes onset increased with age and reached the highest level in those aged 85 years and over. During the study period, HS and IS patients in each age group displayed significant decrease trend in ≤28 days case fatality rate (trend <i>P</i><0.001). Compared with that in 2015, the age-standardized ≤28 days case-fatality in HS patients in 2019 decreased by 28.52%, which was more in urban areas (-34.27%) than that in rural areas (-23.19%). Meanwhile, IS patients experienced a 39.90% reduction in ≤28 days case fatality, which was much lower in urban areas (-31.62%) than in rural areas (-45.10%, all trend <i>P</i><0.001). <b>Conclusions:</b> From 2015 to 2019, ≤28 days case fatality in both HS and IS patients decreased in China. Wide variations of ≤28 days case-fatality were evident in the level and trend in stroke subtype, age of patients, as well as urban and rural areas. More precise and comprehensive strategies for stroke prevention, treatment, and post-stroke management are urgently required in China.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 8","pages":"1354-1359"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144971831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Theoretical deduction of early warning strategies for emerging infectious diseases].","authors":"J L Tang, L M Li","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250703-00461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250703-00461","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Although the COVID-19 pandemic has subsided, the risk of the outbreak of new emerging infectious diseases remained constantly present. As such an outbreak can have devastating consequences to the society and economy, development of warning strategies before it takes place is a critical and urgent research task. However, there are currently no validated methods that are both effective and practically feasible for giving pre-outbreak alerts. As such, timely identification and rapid response after an outbreak takes place is still a feasible and effective method for responding to new emerging infectious diseases. The speed and efficiency of the response are largely contingent upon preparedness during the inter-epidemic periods. This paper aims to outline our thinking about the framework for infectious disease early warning and propose some recommendations. Implementation of such a strategy in practice necessitates the establishment of pilot initiatives to test the early warning system according to our proposed principles. These pilots may use severe influenza or hypothetical outbreak scenarios as examples, define warning signals, develop the mechanisms for epidemiological investigation, reporting and response so as to conduct feasibility assessments.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 8","pages":"1315-1318"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144971779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Coverage of National Immunization Program vaccines and vaccination information consistency rate among children born during 2020-2021 in 3 provinces in China].","authors":"W Q Huang, M Xu, X H Qi, Q Wang, J Chen, M Guang, Y Liu, X Chen, F F Zeng, D Liu, X F Liang","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20241219-00817","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20241219-00817","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To understand the coverage and information consistency rate of National Immunization Program (NIP) vaccines among children born during 2020-2021 in Zhejiang Province, Chongqing City, and Shanxi Province (3 provinces) of China<b>.</b> <b>Methods:</b> A simple random sampling method was used to randomly select 3 counties (districts) from each of the 3 provinces, 5 townships from each county (district), and 5 villages from each township. Vaccination information for seven NIP vaccines was collected for children born between 2020 and 2021 in each village. The vaccination coverage, timely coverage, and consistency rates between the survey data and the Immunization Planning Information System data were analyzed. <b>Results:</b> A total of 1 117 children were investigated. The vaccination coverage for each dose of NIP vaccine ranged from 99.10% to 100.00%, with those in Zhejiang Province, Chongqing City, and Shanxi Province ranging from 99.19% to 100.00%, 98.92% to 100.00%, and 99.20% to 100.00%, respectively. The timely coverage of each dose of NIP vaccine ranged from 89.79% to 99.82%, with those in Zhejiang Province, Chongqing City, and Shanxi Province ranging from 94.09% to 99.73%, 89.52% to 99.73%, and 78.55% to 100.00%, respectively. The consistency rate of information on each dose of NIP vaccine ranged from 94.36% to 99.91%, with those in Zhejiang Province, Chongqing City, and Shanxi Province ranging from 97.85% to 99.73%, 98.92% to 100.00%, and 86.06% to 100.00%, respectively. <b>Conclusions:</b> Coverage of NIP vaccines was generally high among children born during 2020-2021 in the 3 provinces of China, but there were regional differences in the timely coverage of some vaccine doses and the vaccination information consistency rate. It is necessary to strengthen the timely vaccination of children's vaccine booster doses and optimize the management of vaccination services.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 8","pages":"1393-1399"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144971805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Current research and future perspectives on oropouche virus].","authors":"P J He, Z Y Chen, T F An, D S Chen, X Chen, Y S Cai, E J Huang, L H Ma, X H Liu, Z Y Ren, N Jia","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250104-00008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250104-00008","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The oropouche virus (OROV) poses a threat to pregnant women and fetuses, potentially causing fetal neurological defects and even stillbirth, which has caused global attention. OROV is an arthropod-borne virus belonging to the <i>Orthobunyavirus genus</i> in the Bunyavirales order, primarily transmitted by arthropods and causing oropouche fever. This article reviews the etiological characteristics, epidemiological distribution, clinical symptoms, detection methods, and prevention strategies of OROV. OROV is prevalent in Central and South America, with a sharp increase in cases reported in Brazil in 2024. The virus's symptoms resemble those of several other arthropod-borne viral diseases, which can lead to misdiagnosis. Currently, there are no specific drugs or vaccines available, and treatment is mainly supportive. <i>Culicoides paraensis</i> and <i>Culex quinquefasciatus</i> are among the significant vectors of OROV. Furthermore, the article analyzes the distribution of <i>Culex quinquefasciatus</i> in China, highlights the risk of imported cases, proposes targeted prevention and control strategies, and underscores the significance of international cooperation in disease prevention and control.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 8","pages":"1513-1518"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144971844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[A retrospective cohort study on the incidence and influencing factors of malignancies among HIV-infected patients in Taizhou, Zhejiang Province].","authors":"T T Wang, S L Wang, Y T Wang, L Y Wang, X C Wei, X X Chen, T L Chen, J Y Ren, X Liu, H J Lin, N He","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250402-00211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250402-00211","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To analyze the incidence and risk factors of malignant tumors among HIV-infected patients in Taizhou, Zhejiang Province. <b>Methods:</b> The data were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention and the Taizhou Chronic Disease Information Management System. A retrospective cohort study design was used. The subjects were HIV-infected patients who had their household registration in Taizhou from 2005 to 2023 and participated in the follow-up. The observation period was until December 31, 2024. The standardized incidence ratios (SIR) of malignant tumors among HIV-infected patients were analyzed. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of malignant tumor incidence. <b>Results:</b> A total of 3 593 HIV-infected patients were included, of whom 292 had malignant tumors. The proportions of AIDS-defining malignancies and non-AIDS-defining malignancies were 12.33% (36/292) and 87.67% (256/292), respectively. The proportion of malignant tumors before and after AIDS confirmation was 43.49% (127/292) and 56.51% (165/292), respectively. 3 466 HIV-infected patients were included in the follow-up cohort, with a total follow-up of 24 968.59 person-years. The incidence rate of malignant tumors in patients with HIV infection was 658.46 per 100 000 (SIR=1.89, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.61-2.20). The SIR of malignant tumors showed an upward trend with the increase of time. The results of Cox proportional hazards regression model analysis showed that HIV-infected patients in the age groups of 45-59 and ≥60 years (a<i>HR</i>=2.58, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.26-5.28; a<i>HR</i>=5.00, 95%<i>CI</i>: 2.38-10.51) were more likely to develop malignant tumors. HIV-infected patients with an educational level of senior high school or above (a<i>HR</i>=0.52, 95%<i>CI</i>: 0.29-0.95) and those in the first CD4⁺T lymphocyte/CD8⁺T lymphocyte count ratio ≥0.5 (a<i>HR</i>=0.52, 95%<i>CI</i>: 0.28-0.97) were less likely to develop malignant tumors. <b>Conclusions:</b> From 2005 to 2023, the incidence of malignant tumors among HIV-infected people in Taizhou was higher than that of the general population, and most of them were non-AIDS-defining malignancies. It is necessary to strengthen the early screening and diagnosis of malignant tumors among HIV-infected patients.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 8","pages":"1372-1378"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144971622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Study on life expectancy among HIV-infected patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in Taizhou of Zhejiang Province, 2014 to 2023].","authors":"H Yang, L Y Wang, D J Qiao, Q G Meng, T T Wang, S L Wang, Y L Xie, Y T Wang, H J Lin, N He","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250405-00214","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250405-00214","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To investigate the life expectancy of antiretroviral treatment (ART) HIV-infected patients and its trends in Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province from 2014 to 2023. <b>Methods:</b> The data were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention , and the study subjects were HIV-infected patients received ART in Taizhou City. An abbreviated life expectancy table was prepared based on Chiang's method to analyze the differences in life expectancy of HIV-infected patients receiving ART in Taizhou City with different characteristics in 2023 and to compare the trends in life expectancy of patients with different CD4⁺T lymphocytes (CD4) counts at the time of initiation of ART from 2014 to 2023. <b>Results:</b> A total of 4 825 patients were enrolled in this study, with a cumulative follow-up of 276 648.56 person-years, and a case-fatality rate of 18.07 (95%<i>CI</i>: 16.48-19.65) /1 000 person-years. In 2023, male patients had lower life expectancy than females in all age groups, and those who were married had higher life expectancy than those who were unmarried and those who were divorced or widowed; patients who had been transmitted heterosexually had lower life expectancy than those who had been transmitted through homosexual transmission. Patients with different CD4 counts at the time of initiating ART had different life expectancies in all age groups. The life expectancy of patients with CD4 counts ≥350 cells/μl when initiating the treatment was higher than that of patients with CD4 counts <200 cells/μl in all age groups. The life expectancy of HIV-infected patients on ART at age 20 and 50 increased from 39.0 years and 19.1 years in 2014 to 46.0 years and 24.1 years in 2023, respectively, with an average annual percentage change of 2.43% (95%<i>CI</i>: 0.81%-4.07%) and 3.34% (95%<i>CI</i>: 1.17%-5.56%). The change in life expectancy was similar for patients with CD4 counts ≥350 cells/μl and 200-349 cells/μl at the time of initiating treatment in 2016-2023, and was higher than that for patients with CD4 counts <200 cells/μl. The rate of increase in life expectancy for patients at age 50 was higher than that at age 20 for all CD4 counts. <b>Conclusions:</b> The rising trend of life expectancy among HIV-infected patients on ART in Taizhou City is obvious. But the disparity between patients with different characteristics is obvious, especially among patients with baseline CD4 counts <200 cells/μl, suggesting the importance of expanded testing, early diagnosis and timely initiation of ART to improve the life expectancy of HIV-infected patients.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 8","pages":"1366-1371"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144971804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Distribution of genetic subtypes and drug resistance characteristics of HIV-1 infected patients with antiretroviral treatment failure in Henan Province, 2023].","authors":"C H Fu, J J Liu, Q X Zhao, X H Zhang, S G Wei, Y Q Huo","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250318-00174","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250318-00174","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To explore the distribution of HIV-1 genetic subtypes and drug resistance profiles among HIV-1 infected patients with antiretroviral treatment (ART) failure in Henan Province and to provide evidence for optimizing ART regimens. <b>Methods:</b> HIV-1 infected patients who had received ART for at least 6 months with viral loads (VL) ≥200 copies/ml in 18 cities of Henan from January to December 2023. The plasma samples were collected, and partial <i>pol</i> gene sequences and full-length integrase (<i>int</i>) gene sequences of HIV-1 were amplified using nested RT-PCR. HIV-1 subtypes were determined using the REGA HIV-1 subtyping tool, and drug resistance mutations were analyzed using the Stanford University HIV Drug Resistance Database (http://hivdb.stanford.edu/). Chi-square tests and multivariate logistic regression were used to identify risk factors associated with drug resistance of HIV-1 infected patients. <b>Results:</b> Among 697 HIV-1 infected patients with ART failure, 14 HIV-1 genetic subtypes were identified. Subtype B was predominant (58.68%, 409/697), followed by CRF01_AE (21.95%, 153/697) and CRF07_BC (12.91%, 90/697). The overall drug resistance rate was 72.31% (504/697), with CRF55_01B exhibiting a resistance rate of 91.30% (21/23). Non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) had the highest resistance mutation rate (67.29%, 469/697), followed by nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs)(56.81%, 396/697), protease inhibitors (PIs)(5.74%, 40/697), and integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs)(2.75%, 19/691). The results of multivariate analysis showed that the positive correlation factor for drug resistance in HIV-1 infected individuals with failed ART was baseline CD4⁺T lymphocyte counts <200 cells/μl (a<i>OR</i>=3.84, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.69-8.72), and the negative correlation factor was ART duration of 3-5 years (a<i>OR</i>=0.32, 95%<i>CI</i>: 0.13-0.77), the initial treatment ART protocol used two types of NRTIs plus one type of PIs (a<i>OR</i>=0.14, 95%<i>CI</i>: 0.05-0.43) and two types of NRTIs plus one type of INSTIs protocol (a<i>O</i>R=0.12, 95%<i>CI</i>: 0.03-0.57). <b>Conclusions:</b> The drug resistance rate of HIV-1 infected patients with ART failure was relatively higher in Henan Province in 2023. Strengthening the monitoring of HIV-1 drug resistance is of great significance to improve the ART effect of HIV-1 infected patients.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 8","pages":"1379-1385"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144971753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Epidemiological characteristics of active pulmonary tuberculosis and application of incidence prediction model in Xi'an from 2013 to 2023].","authors":"W Shi, F Y Guo, L C Zeng, X Y Wang, Z S Jiang, Y F Wang","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250313-00157","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250313-00157","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of active pulmonary tuberculosis (pulmonary tuberculosis) in Xi'an from 2013 to 2023 and predict the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Xi'an by using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) product seasonal models to provide a decision-making basis for tuberculosis prevention and control. <b>Methods:</b> The incidence data of pulmonary tuberculosis reported in Xi'an from 2013 to 2023 were collected through the Tuberculosis Information Management System of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The Excel 2016 software was used for descriptive statistical analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence data reported in Xi'an from 2013 to 2023. The SPSS 20.0 software was used to establish an ARIMA product seasonal model to predict the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Xi'an. <b>Results:</b> A total of 49 860 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in Xi'an from 2013 to 2023, with an annual average incidence of 45.60/100 000. The incidence showed a downward trend in the past decade. The incidence was high in spring, with a peak from March to May, a small peak from November to January, and a low incidence in February and October. The annual average incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in 2 suburban counties (52.80/100 000) was higher than that in 14 urban areas (43.21/100 000) (<i>χ</i>²=20.19, <i>P</i><0.001). With the increase of age, the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis was higher, and the incidence of the males was higher than that of female (<i>χ</i>²=378.34, <i>P</i><0.001), the ratio of male to female incidence was 1.73∶1. The most occupation of the population was farmers, accounting for 46.54%. The established ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (1, 1, 1)₁₂ product seasonal model exhibited a good prediction effect, with the Bayesian Information Criterion being -1.567, the root mean square error being 0.42, and the mean absolute percentage error being 9.62. The average relative error between the actual value and the predicted value was 6.63%, and the 95%<i>CI</i> of the predicted value included the actual value. <b>Conclusions:</b> 2013-2023, the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Xi'an has been on the decline as a whole. Special attention should be paid to the prevention and control of tuberculosis in districts (counties) adjacent to mountainous areas in the south, people aged 60 years and above, and farmers and other vulnerable groups. The established ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (1, 1, 1)₁₂ product seasonal model exhibited a good predictive effect and can be applied to the short-term prediction of tuberculosis incidence.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 8","pages":"1386-1392"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144971782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Research progress of the prevention, care, and treatment services along the HIV/AIDS care cascade].","authors":"H Xiang, W Ma, F F Chen, H Liu, H L Tang","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250328-00200","DOIUrl":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250328-00200","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Since the 1980 s, AIDS has been a significant global public health threat. With the \"95-95-95\" targets for HIV/AIDS prevention and control, the HIV/AIDS \"prevention, testing, and treatment\" care cascade covering the entire process has become a core strategy. The present study examines combs the connotation and development of the HIV/AIDS care cascade, exploring application throughout the entire process and at each linkage. It analyzes extension value in key populations and HIV co-infected other infectious diseases, identifies obstacles in practice, and proposes strategies to help optimize, innovate, and precisely target HIV/AIDS prevention and control in China.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 8","pages":"1506-1512"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144971838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}