[Epidemiological characteristics of active pulmonary tuberculosis and application of incidence prediction model in Xi'an from 2013 to 2023].

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of active pulmonary tuberculosis (pulmonary tuberculosis) in Xi'an from 2013 to 2023 and predict the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Xi'an by using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) product seasonal models to provide a decision-making basis for tuberculosis prevention and control. Methods: The incidence data of pulmonary tuberculosis reported in Xi'an from 2013 to 2023 were collected through the Tuberculosis Information Management System of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The Excel 2016 software was used for descriptive statistical analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence data reported in Xi'an from 2013 to 2023. The SPSS 20.0 software was used to establish an ARIMA product seasonal model to predict the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Xi'an. Results: A total of 49 860 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in Xi'an from 2013 to 2023, with an annual average incidence of 45.60/100 000. The incidence showed a downward trend in the past decade. The incidence was high in spring, with a peak from March to May, a small peak from November to January, and a low incidence in February and October. The annual average incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in 2 suburban counties (52.80/100 000) was higher than that in 14 urban areas (43.21/100 000) (χ²=20.19, P<0.001). With the increase of age, the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis was higher, and the incidence of the males was higher than that of female (χ²=378.34, P<0.001), the ratio of male to female incidence was 1.73∶1. The most occupation of the population was farmers, accounting for 46.54%. The established ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (1, 1, 1)₁₂ product seasonal model exhibited a good prediction effect, with the Bayesian Information Criterion being -1.567, the root mean square error being 0.42, and the mean absolute percentage error being 9.62. The average relative error between the actual value and the predicted value was 6.63%, and the 95%CI of the predicted value included the actual value. Conclusions: 2013-2023, the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Xi'an has been on the decline as a whole. Special attention should be paid to the prevention and control of tuberculosis in districts (counties) adjacent to mountainous areas in the south, people aged 60 years and above, and farmers and other vulnerable groups. The established ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (1, 1, 1)₁₂ product seasonal model exhibited a good predictive effect and can be applied to the short-term prediction of tuberculosis incidence.