中华流行病学杂志最新文献

{"title":"[Clinical research design and application of vaccines based on maternal immunization].","authors":"Y Liu, S Y Jia, X M Ma, F Wen, F C Zhu, J X Li","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240712-00419","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240712-00419","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Maternal immunization is a highly effective public health strategy. The administration of vaccines to pregnant women increases the level of specific transplacental maternal antibodies, thereby protecting the pregnant fetuses, newborns, and early-life infants from the corresponding pathogens. Currently, maternal immunization strategies for pertussis, influenza, <i>etc</i>. have been widely used worldwide, and positive results have been achieved in preventing respiratory syncytial virus infection in infants. This article reviews different designs of maternal vaccination clinical studies, including randomized controlled trials, cohort studies, case-control studies, and surveillance data studies. It summarizes the strengths and weaknesses of different study approaches and discusses the application of maternal immunization strategies to provide a reference for developing maternal immunization research in China.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 2","pages":"345-351"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143450329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[A simulation study for handling two-way treatment switching in rare event scenarios].","authors":"W K Wu, Q He, M H Yao, J Y Xu, W Wang, X Sun","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240522-00295","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240522-00295","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> Drug safety assessments based on real-world data are often challenged by both treatment switching and rare events. In this study, we used statistical simulations to investigate the effects of switching rates and treatment effects on the statistical performance of commonly used analytical strategies and methods under overlapping scenarios of treatment switching and rare events. <b>Methods:</b> The simulation scenario was set up as a bidirectional treatment switching (allowing the control group to switch to the treatment group and the treatment group to switch to the control group), and the event rates were set at approximately 2%, 5%, and 20%. Different simulation scenarios were generated with sufficient sample size to consider switching rate and relative treatment effect. The simulated datasets were analyzed using three types of analysis strategy, i.e. intention to treat (ITT), per protocol (PP), and as treated (AT). The performance of five indicators, namely percentage bias, mean square error, empirical standard error, coverage, and rejection rate, were compared among the different methods in different scenarios, and recommendations for method selection were given. <b>Results:</b> In terms of analytical strategies and methods, AT analysis were relatively optimal in terms of percentage bias and accuracy, followed by PP analysis and ITT analysis. When the relative treatment effects converged (e.g. <i>HR</i>=1.0), both the ITT analysis and the time-dependent AT approaches (marginal structural model, time-dependent Cox regression model or time-dependent propensity score matching) performed well; when the relative treatment effects were small (e.g. <i>HR</i>=0.8), the marginal structural model was the most optimal; when the relative treatment effects were large (e.g. <i>HR</i>=0.6 or 0.4), the approaches of using a censored treatment for switchers in the AT analysis were more accurate. In addition, the time-dependent AT approaches had the highest rejection rate when there was a difference in treatment effect between the two groups, and the ITT analysis had the lowest rejection rate. <b>Conclusions:</b> For the dual challenges of bidirectional switching and rare events in real-world drug safety evaluations, adequate sample size is a prerequisite for accurate estimation of treatment effects, while switching rates and effect sizes of switched drugs might also affect estimation accuracy. Appropriate strategies and methods should be selected for the analysis. It is necessary to consider whether the event is rare or not, the switching rate and the expected treatment effect size of the two types of treatment to select appropriate analysis strategies and methods.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 2","pages":"334-344"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143450249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Research on the prediction of Hepatitis C incidence trend in Taiyuan City based on combination model].","authors":"S Y Guo, Q Y Zhao, Y Zhang, P Zhang, X W Che, J G Zheng, L Wang","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240814-00502","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240814-00502","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> Based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, back propagation neutral network (BPNN), and ARIMA-BPNN model, select the optimal model suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hepatitis C in Taiyuan City according to the characteristics of the data. <b>Methods:</b> The data of reported cases of hepatitis C in Taiyuan from 2008 to 2021 were selected, and the seasonal trend decomposition chart was used to analyze the seasonal characteristics of the monthly incidence rate of hepatitis C in Taiyuan during the period, and the ARIMA model, BPNN model, and ARIMA-BPNN model were established to predict. The performance of the model was measured using four indicators: mean absolute error (<i>MAE</i>), mean squared error (<i>MSE</i>), root mean square error (<i>RMSE</i>), and mean absolute percentage error (<i>MAPE</i>). <b>Results:</b> A total of 20 025 cases of hepatitis C were reported, and the overall incidence trend was stable. The BPNN model performed well on <i>MSE</i>, <i>MAE,</i> and <i>RMSE</i> indicators, the ARIMA-BPNN model performed well on <i>MAPE</i> indicators, and the ARIMA model performed relatively averagely. <b>Conclusions:</b> The ARIMA-BPNN model is a better model for predicting the trend of hepatitis C in Taiyuan City, with a higher predictive performance than a single model. It has significant prospects in predicting the trend of infectious diseases.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 2","pages":"204-209"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143450429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Prediction of depression symptoms in seniors and analysis of influencing factors based on explainable machine learning].","authors":"W Y Su, S H Dong, H J Ge, Q Yu, G F Ma","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240809-00488","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240809-00488","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> This study aims to construct a machine learning model to predict depression symptoms in the elderly and analyze the key influencing factors of depression in the elderly using the shapley additive interpretation (SHAP) method. <b>Methods:</b> Based on entries from the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study database, a sample of 5 954 elderly individuals was selected. Feature selection using Support Vector Machine Recursive Feature Elimination, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) - Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE), and the Lasso algorithm, which was combined with five classifiers-logistic regression, decision trees, random forests, support vector machines, and XGBoost-to explore the classification effectiveness for depressive symptoms in the elderly. Finally, the SHAP method was used to interpret the analysis of the model with the highest receiver operating characteristic curve areas under the curve (AUC). <b>Results:</b> The accuracy of 15 prediction models ranged from 0.702 to 0.743, with AUC between 0.730 and 0.795. Sensitivity was reported at 0.546 to 0.588, while specificity ranges from 0.783 to 0.865. The model XGBoost-RFE-XGBoost presented the highest AUC. Based on SHAP values, the top four factors influencing depressive symptoms in older adults were life satisfaction, duration of nighttime sleep, disability status, and self-rated health. <b>Conclusion:</b> This study developed a highly efficient and interpretable risk prediction model for depressive symptoms in older adults, which could help identify high-risk older adults and give personalized interventions.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 2","pages":"316-324"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143450390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Construction and identification of a sizeable naive human Fab phage display antibody library].","authors":"Y K Zhao, X Y Wei, F L Meng, W T Liu, J M Fan, L J Long, W T Wang, J L Chen, J Z Zhang, L H He, L Y Liu, R Zhao, D Sun, X Z Yuan, X M Yan","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240801-00468","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240801-00468","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To construct a sizeable naive human Fab phage display antibody library to screen high-affinity specific antibodies <i>in vitro</i>. <b>Methods:</b> Total RNA was extracted from peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of 126 healthy individuals, subsequently reverse-transcribed into cDNA, and used as a template. PCR amplification was performed to obtain the <i>V_H</i> from IgG, IgM and light chain κ, λ, separately, with the initial PCR products serving as templates for a second round of PCR. Overlap extension PCR was employed to generate fragments of the κ and λ light chains. These fragments were ligated with the phage vector pNC3, which harbors the variable region 1 of the heavy chain, to construct a recombinant phage plasmid. This plasmid was then electroporated into competent <i>Escherichia Coli</i> TG1 cells to establish a naive human Fab phage display antibody library. One hundred clones were randomly selected for identification and sequencing, and antibody gene polymorphisms were analyzed using the IMGT database and MAFFT software. Recombinant α-hemolysin from Staphylococcus aureus was utilized to screen Fab antibody fragments through biopanning of the antibody library, followed by random selection of phage ELISA-identified clones. The positive clones (antigen <i>A</i>₄₅₀∶blank control <i>A</i>₄₅₀≥2.1) were sequenced. <b>Results:</b> Two large naive Fab phage display antibody libraries were successfully constructed, in which the capacity of κ and λ chain antibody libraries were 1.25×10¹¹ and 1.54×10¹¹, respectively. The titers for two antibody libraries were 6.04×10¹³ CFU/ml and 3.50×10¹³ CFU/ml. The positive transformation insertion rates for κ and λ chain antibody libraries were 96% (96/100) and 100% (100/100), respectively. Sequence analysis revealed that all antibody sequences were unique. The amino acid sequences in the skeletal region were relatively conserved. In contrast, significant variations in the length of the complementarity determining region (CDR) were found, and the diversity of amino acid sequence of the complementary determining region was high, especially the CDR3. Analysis using the IMGT database indicated that the sequences exhibited a broad distribution across variable-diversity-joining gene families. After six rounds of panning, specific phage antibodies enrichment targeting α-hemolysin were achieved. A total of 142 monoclonal antibodies were sequenced, yielding 8 distinct Fab antibody sequences. <b>Conclusion:</b> This study successfully constructed two naive human Fab phage display antibody libraries with large capacity and good diversity, which can be used for screening human antibodies for serum epidemiology.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 2","pages":"288-295"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143450338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Analysis of characteristics of anonymous online dating and related factors of not being tested for HIV among men who have sex with men in Shandong Province].","authors":"M Y J Yangji, X D You, X Y Zhu, L Li, J H Li, H Y Yu, G Y Wang, M Z Liao, W Ma","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240625-00373","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240625-00373","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To analyze the characteristics of anonymous online dating and related factors of not being tested for HIV among men who have sex with men and to provide the basis for developing targeted HIV prevention strategies and intervention measures. <b>Methods:</b> Using a cross-sectional study design, respondents were recruited with the assistance of MSM social organizations from April to July 2023 in eight cities in Shandong Province. Snowball sampling, activity venues, and networks were employed, targeting a sample size of 400 people per city. A face-to-face questionnaire survey collected data on sociodemographic characteristics, drug use, sexual intercourse, and online informed dating. Blood samples were also collected for HIV and syphilis antibody testing. <b>Results:</b> In the past six months, 2 787 MSM sought homosexual partners through the Internet, and 78.26% (2 181/2 787) chose to make anonymous online dating. Before having homosexual sex with online sexual partners, 10.41% (290/2 787) of them did not ask each other about HIV infection status and 33.37% (930/2 787) of them not being tested for HIV. There were statistically significant differences in the distribution of age, marital status, household registration, education level, sexual orientation, ways to find male sexual partners, not asking online sexual partners about their HIV status before sexual intercourse, no mutual HIV testing with online sexual partners before sexual intercourse, and syphilis antibody between anonymous and non-anonymous online dating persons (all <i>P</i><0.05). The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that <25 years old (a<i>OR</i>=1.43, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.15-1.77) and ≥35 years old age group (a<i>OR</i>=1.61, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.29-2.01), people with no AIDS knowledge (a<i>OR</i>=2.37, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.25-4.49), drug users (a<i>OR</i>=1.38, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.17-1.63), online dating anonymous (a<i>OR</i>=2.19, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.76-2.73), HIV antibody positive (a<i>OR</i>=3.61, 95%<i>CI</i>: 2.22-5.88) and no intervention services in the last 1 year (a<i>OR</i>=1.58, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.05-2.38) were the related factors of MSM not being tested for HIV before having sexual intercourse through online dating. <b>Conclusions:</b> The phenomenon of anonymous online dating was common among MSM in Shandong Province, and the proportion of MSM not being tested for HIV before having sexual intercourse through anonymous online dating was relatively high. It is necessary to strengthen health publicity and promote informed dating in MSM.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 2","pages":"252-257"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143450270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[The trend of change in insulin resistance among Chinese adults from 2010 to 2018].","authors":"C L Ye, L M Wang, Y F Zhao, X Zhang, C Li, Z P Zhao, Y Hou, Y M Chen, M Zhang","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240723-00452","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240723-00452","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To investigate the trends in insulin resistance, as represented by the triglyceride-glucose index (TyG index), among Chinese adult residents from 2010 to 2018 and to explore influencing factors. <b>Methods:</b> China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance was conducted in 2010, 2013, and 2018, using a multi-stage stratified cluster random sampling method across all 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China. This study sampled 98 712 adults in 2010, 176 534 adults in 2013, and 184 876 adults in 2018, all aged ≥18 years, totaling 406 933 participants. Individuals with a TyG index ><i>P</i>₇₅ were classified as having insulin resistance. The mean TyG index and the prevalence of insulin resistance were calculated for different years, sexes, age groups, provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), and subgroups for 2018. Linear and logistic regression models were used to test trends in means and rates over time, and multivariate logistic regression models were conducted to analyze potential factors associated with insulin resistance. All analyses were adjusted for complex sampling weights based on the study design. <b>Results:</b> From 2010 to 2018, the mean TyG index among Chinese adults increased from 8.44±0.63 to 8.70±0.64, with significant upward trends observed across different age groups, sexes, and urban-rural residencies (all <i>P</i><0.001). The mean TyG index was higher among males, urban residents, and those aged 45-59. There were significant differences in the mean TyG indices and prevalence of insulin resistance across provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) (all <i>P</i><0.05). Higher insulin resistance prevalence was independently associated with being male, aged ≥45 years, living in urban areas, excessive alcohol consumption, and insufficient physical activity (all <i>P</i><0.05). <b>Conclusions:</b> From 2010 to 2018, the level of insulin resistance, as indicated by the TyG index, showed an increasing trend among Chinese adults. Males, individuals aged ≥45 years, urban residents, and individuals with unhealthy lifestyles such as excessive alcohol consumption or insufficient physical activity should be the focus of efforts to prevent and control metabolic diseases related to insulin resistance.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 2","pages":"179-187"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143450480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Temporal trends and attributable risk factors of chronic kidney disease burden in Fujian Province, 1990-2019].","authors":"X Q Lin, X R Lin, C L Yang, X Y Wang, J Ouyang, Q Guan, S F Huang, Y R Yin, D Liang, W L Zhong","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240516-00280","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240516-00280","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To understand the burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and its risk factors in Fujian Province during 1990-2019. <b>Methods:</b> Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, the incidence rate, mortality rate and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of CKD in Fujian from 1990 to 2019 were calculated. An age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the effects of age, period, and cohort on age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of CKD. Comparative risk assessment theory was used to calculate the potential attributable DALYs due to risk factors. <b>Results:</b> In 2019, the ASIR of CKD in Fujian exceeded the national average. The ASIR of CKD showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2019, but the ASMR and ASDR of CKD exhibited decreasing trends during the same period. In 2019, the ASIR of CKD was higher in women than in men, while the ASMR and ASDR were higher in men than in women. Age-period-cohort analysis indicated that ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR of CKD increased with age. The period effect for ASIR decreased first before increase, while the period effect for ASMR and ASDR displayed fluctuating trends. The cohort effect showed an upward trajectory for ASIR, but a stable status before downward trajectories for ASMR and ASDR. Compared with 1990, except the increase in the ASDR of CKD attributed to high BMI and high temperatures, the ASDR of CKD attributed to other risk factors all showed decreases in 2019. However, the ASDR attributed to high sodium intake remained higher compared with the global average. <b>Conclusion:</b> The burden of CKD remains heavy in Fujian, and it is necessary to reduce the attributable risk factors, such as high sodium intake and high BMI, to address this problem.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 1","pages":"57-64"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143012859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[A prediction study of the risk of new 9-valent vaccine type human papillomavirus infections in men who have sex with men].","authors":"J Y Bian, H Yang, Aslibek Shulipan, W H Yu, K Wang, G Z Zhang, J H Dai","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240625-00371","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240625-00371","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To understand the factors influencing new infections of 9-valent vaccine-type human papillomavirus (9-valent type HPV) among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Urumqi City and to construct a prediction model of individual dynamics of new infections of 9-valent type HPV among MSM. <b>Methods:</b> In this study, a snowball method was adopted to recruit MSM in Urumqi City to establish a dynamic cohort, and participants were followed up every 6 months from 2016 to 2023, and perianal exfoliated cells were collected for HPV genotyping; joint models were established using the number of same-sex sexual partners in the last six months and the number of anal intercourse in the last one week as longitudinal variables, respectively, and joint models were utilized to analyze the influence factors of 9-valent HPV new infections in MSM individuals were analyzed by the joint model; the predictive efficacy of the model in the follow-up period was evaluated by using the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) values. Based on the prediction model, two study participants were randomly selected for individual dynamic prediction of new-onset HPV infections of 9-valent type types. <b>Results:</b> MSM with at least two follow-up visits 579 individuals were included in the analysis. The results of the two joint models showed that being divorced/widowed [hazard ratio (<i>HR</i>)=1.544, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.033-2.233], having a sexual behavior style of being the inserted party (<i>HR</i>=1.366, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.053-1.764), and having a history of STDs (<i>HR</i>=1.659, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.057-2.558) increased the 9-valent types of new HPV infections risk. The results of the shared parameter of the joint model of the number of same-sex partners in the last six months showed that each 2.72 increase in the number of same-sex partners in the last six months was associated with a 28.2% increase in the risk of new 9-valent HPV infections in MSM individuals (<i>HR</i>=1.282, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.065-1.540). The time-dependent AUC results showed that the joint model for the number of same-sex sexual partners in the last six months (0.808 0) predicted better performance than the joint model for the number of anal intercourse in the last one week (0.750 0). The joint model based on the number of same-sex sexual partners in the last six months for the prediction of MSM individual dynamics was consistent with the real situation. <b>Conclusion:</b> The joint model based on the number of same-sex sexual partners in the last six months, sexual behavior, history of STDs, and other risk factors has high accuracy in predicting the risk of new MSM 9-valent HPV infections in Urumqi City, which can provide a scientific basis for the prediction of individual dynamics of new MSM 9-valent HPV infections.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 1","pages":"118-124"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143012102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Interaction between renal function and body mass index on all-cause mortality risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in communities in Jiangsu Province].","authors":"M X Li, J L He, H Yu, X K Fan, J Yang, Y Qin, C Shen, Y Lu, Enchun Pan, R Tao, Y Q Zhang, J Su","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240508-00247","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240508-00247","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To investigate the association of the interaction and combined effect of renal function and body mass index (BMI) with the risk for all-cause death in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in communities of Jiangsu Province. <b>Methods:</b> The study subjects were from the Comprehensive Research Project of Diabetes Prevention and Control conducted in Jiangsu from December 2013 to January 2014, and follow up was conducted for them until September 30, 2023. A total of 20 025 subjects were included in the study. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze the association of renal function with risk for death in T2DM patients, and the association of interaction between renal function and BMI and their combined effect with all-cause death risk in T2DM patients. <b>Results:</b> In the follow up for 198 370 person-years, a total of 4 459 deaths were recorded. Cox proportional hazards regression model analysis showed that renal dysfunction was associated with 71% risk of all-cause mortality in all T2DM patients [hazard ratio (<i>HR</i>) =1.71, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.59-1.84], as well as in all BMI subgroups. Likelihood ratio test indicated an interaction between renal function and BMI (interaction for <i>P</i>=0.030). Compared with patients with normal renal function and normal BMI, those with normal renal function and over weight or obesity had a lower risk of all-cause mortality, and those with renal dysfunction and low weight had the highest risk for death (<i>HR</i>=2.78, 95%<i>CI</i>: 1.87-4.14). <b>Conclusions:</b> There is association of interaction between renal function and BMI with all-cause mortality in T2DM patients. T2DM patients with renal dysfunction and low body weight had significant higher risk for death.</p>","PeriodicalId":23968,"journal":{"name":"中华流行病学杂志","volume":"46 1","pages":"50-56"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143012861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}