G. Dolcetti, S. Piccolroaz, M. C. Bruno, E. Calamita, S. Larsen, G. Zolezzi, A. Siviglia
{"title":"Quantification of Carbopeaking and CO2 Fluxes in a Regulated Alpine River","authors":"G. Dolcetti, S. Piccolroaz, M. C. Bruno, E. Calamita, S. Larsen, G. Zolezzi, A. Siviglia","doi":"10.1029/2024wr037834","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr037834","url":null,"abstract":"Carbon dioxide (<span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/cfd621e3-5b3a-4657-b270-b89b5721986a/wrcr27673-math-0002.png\"></span><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00431397:media:wrcr27673:wrcr27673-math-0002\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/wrcr27673-math-0002.png\">\u0000<semantics>\u0000<mrow>\u0000<msub>\u0000<mtext>CO</mtext>\u0000<mn>2</mn>\u0000</msub>\u0000</mrow>\u0000${text{CO}}_{2}$</annotation>\u0000</semantics></math>) fluxes in regulated Alpine rivers are driven by multiple biogeochemical and anthropogenic processes, acting on different spatiotemporal scales. We quantified the relative importance of these drivers and their effects on the dynamics of <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/19b5e807-fc94-4f6f-bbc0-d05bb981c9f3/wrcr27673-math-0003.png\"></span><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00431397:media:wrcr27673:wrcr27673-math-0003\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/wrcr27673-math-0003.png\">\u0000<semantics>\u0000<mrow>\u0000<msub>\u0000<mtext>CO</mtext>\u0000<mn>2</mn>\u0000</msub>\u0000</mrow>\u0000${text{CO}}_{2}$</annotation>\u0000</semantics></math> concentration and atmospheric exchange fluxes in a representative Alpine river segment regulated by a cascading hydropower system with diversion, which includes two residual flow reaches and a reach subject to hydropeaking. We combined instantaneous and time-resolved water chemistry and hydraulic measurements at different times of the year, and quantified the main <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/c4e4c69e-fa25-4557-a475-3f259d0b71a7/wrcr27673-math-0004.png\"></span><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00431397:media:wrcr27673:wrcr27673-math-0004\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/wrcr27673-math-0004.png\">\u0000<semantics>\u0000<mrow>\u0000<msub>\u0000<mtext>CO</mtext>\u0000<mn>2</mn>\u0000</msub>\u0000</mrow>\u0000${text{CO}}_{2}$</annotation>\u0000</semantics></math> fluxes by calibrating a one-dimensional transport-reaction model with measured data. As a novelty compared to previous inverse modeling applications, the model also included carbonate buffering, which contributed significantly to the <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/b2cf641c-ed2b-442d-8d71-5be84b833adf/wrcr27673-math-0005.png\"></span><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00431397:media:wrcr27673:wrcr27673-math-0005\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/wrcr27673-math-0005.png\">\u0000<semantics>\u0000<mrow>\u0000<msub>\u0000<mtext>CO</mtext>\u0000<mn>2</mn>\u0000</msub>\u0000</mrow>\u0000${text{CO}}_{2}$</annotation>\u0000</semantics></math> budget of the case study. The spatiotemporal distribution and drivers of <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/cbc2b417-910c-4752-a886-f8b36e300a0a/wrcr27673-math-0006.png\"></span><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00431397:media:wrcr27673:wrcr27673-math-0006\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/wrcr27673-math-0006.png\">\u0000<semantics>\u0000<mrow>\u0000<msub>\u0000<mtext>CO</mtext>\u0000<mn>2</mn>\u0000</msub>\u0000</mrow>\u0000${text{CO}}_{2}$</annotation>\u0000</semantics></math> fluxes depended on hydropower operations. Along the residual flow reaches, <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/a7648e6f-e87a-4e3e-a208-c090a9bf83de/wrcr27673-math-0007.png\"></span><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00431397:media:wrcr27673:wrcr27673-math-0007\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/wrcr27673-math-0007.png\">\u0000<","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"66 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143393480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Takeshi Kurotori, Christopher Zahasky, Sally M. Benson, Ronny Pini
{"title":"Direct Observations of Solute Dispersion in Rocks With Distinct Degree of Sub-Micron Porosity","authors":"Takeshi Kurotori, Christopher Zahasky, Sally M. Benson, Ronny Pini","doi":"10.1029/2024wr038625","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr038625","url":null,"abstract":"The transport of chemical species in rocks is affected by their structural heterogeneity to yield a wide spectrum of local solute concentrations. To quantify such imperfect mixing, advanced methodologies are needed that augment the traditional breakthrough curve analysis by probing solute concentration within the fluids locally. Here, we demonstrate the application of asynchronous, multimodality imaging by X-ray computed tomography (XCT) and positron emission tomography (PET) to the study of passive tracer experiments in laboratory rock cores. The four-dimensional concentration maps measured by PET reveal specific signatures of the transport process, which we have quantified using fundamental measures of mixing and spreading. We observe that the extent of solute spreading correlate strongly with the strength of subcore-scale porosity heterogeneity measured by XCT, while dilution is enhanced in rocks containing substantial sub-micron porosity. We observe that the analysis of different metrics is necessary, as they can differ in their sensitivity to the strength and forms of heterogeneity. The multimodality imaging approach is uniquely suited to probe the fundamental difference between spreading and mixing in heterogeneous media. We propose that when multi-dimensional data is available, mixing and spreading can be independently quantified using the same metric. We also demonstrate that one-dimensional transport models have limited predictive ability toward the internal evolution of the solute concentration, when the model is solely calibrated against the effluent breakthrough curves. The data set generated in this study can be used to build realistic digital rock models and to benchmark transport simulations that account deterministically for rock property heterogeneity.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143401725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Xianmeng Meng, Wenjuan Zhang, Qu Wang, Maosheng Yin, Dengfeng Liu
{"title":"Modeling of Low-Velocity Non-Darcian Flow With Nonlinear Consolidation in a Leaky Aquifer System Induced by a Fully Penetrating Confined Well","authors":"Xianmeng Meng, Wenjuan Zhang, Qu Wang, Maosheng Yin, Dengfeng Liu","doi":"10.1029/2024wr038370","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr038370","url":null,"abstract":"Existing groundwater flow models for leaky aquifer systems rarely consider the consolidation effects of aquitards. Neglecting these effects can significantly impact the accuracy of groundwater flow simulations within such systems. To address this issue, this paper develops a model that describes unsteady flow within a leaky aquifer system incorporating nonlinear consolidation. The flow in both unconfined and confined aquifers is radial one-dimensional Darcian flow, whereas the flow in the aquitard is vertical one-dimensional non-Darcian flow, considering nonlinear consolidation. The finite difference method is used to solve the model, and the difference between the results obtained with and without considering consolidation effects is examined. The findings indicate that the groundwater head in the confined aquifer, when considering the effects of consolidation, is higher than that in the confined aquifer without consolidation effects. Initially, this difference in confined groundwater head increases rapidly with time, and then progressively decreases. The magnitude of this difference is positively correlated with the aquitard's compressibility index and permeability index, as well as with the pumping rate. Conversely, it is negatively correlated with the aquitard's threshold hydraulic gradient and initial void ratio, the confined aquifer's hydraulic conductivity and specific storage, and the unconfined aquifer's hydraulic conductivity and specific yield. During the early period of pumping, the difference is positively correlated with the aquitard's initial vertical hydraulic conductivity; however, this correlation reverses in the late period of pumping. Finally, a case study is employed to validate the effectiveness of the developed model.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143401679","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Xiaohua Huang, Pia Ebeling, Guodong Liu, Jan H. Fleckenstein, Christian Schmidt
{"title":"Combining Local Head Differences and Topography-Driven Groundwater Flow Reveals Gaining and Losing Patterns in Stream Networks","authors":"Xiaohua Huang, Pia Ebeling, Guodong Liu, Jan H. Fleckenstein, Christian Schmidt","doi":"10.1029/2024wr037443","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr037443","url":null,"abstract":"The exchange between surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) influences water availability and ecosystems in stream networks. Assessing GW-SW interactions can be based on various methods at different scales, such as point scale (e.g., local head differences, temperature profiles), reach scale (e.g., environmental tracers, water mass balance), and catchment scale (topographical-driven groundwater flow), which all have distinct advantages and limitations. In this study, we combined the analysis of local hydraulic head differences with regional topographical-driven groundwater flow to robustly reveal gaining and losing stream patterns in two study regions in Central Germany (Bode catchment and Free State of Thuringia). To evaluate local hydraulic gradients, we developed a method for estimating surface water levels across stream networks by modifying surface elevations from a coarse digital elevation model (25 m) and compared these to measured groundwater levels. Our results reveal prevalent occurrences of losing streams. Numerous stream locations are characterized by mismatching classifications from the two methods providing additional insights for understanding water cycles. The most notable discrepancy is the classification as losing based on head differences and gaining from topographic analyses accounting for 37% and 47% of the stream locations in Thuringia and in Bode catchment. This mismatch indicates anthropogenically lowered groundwater levels, typically occurring in urban and mining areas in the study areas. Our approach, combining local hydraulic head analysis and topographical-driven groundwater flow enhances the understanding of gaining and losing stream patterns at catchment scale, revealing widespread occurrences of losing streams and highlighting the significance of anthropogenic influences on water cycles.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"129 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143393481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lior Netzer, David Russo, Uri Nachshon, Ziv Moreno, Meni Ben-Hur, Roee Katzir, Yakov Livshitz, Daniel Kurtzman
{"title":"Drywell Infiltration Performance: Tests, Monitoring, Simple, and Detailed Models","authors":"Lior Netzer, David Russo, Uri Nachshon, Ziv Moreno, Meni Ben-Hur, Roee Katzir, Yakov Livshitz, Daniel Kurtzman","doi":"10.1029/2024wr037524","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr037524","url":null,"abstract":"Drywells, perforated above the water table, are an attractive tool for both reducing the risk of floods, and increasing groundwater recharge in urbansuburban areas. Various simplifications of the relationship between the injection discharge (Q) and the water-level rise in the drywell during water injection (H) are available. This work presents observations and models that improve our understanding of the drywell performance, namely the ratio Q/H for injections varying in time and dynamics. The drywell screen is at 22–27 m below surface in sandy porous medium, where the water table is at 40 m depth. The first set of observations were of six injection tests of constant Q, each lasting ∼30 min, performed on a daily basis. The Q/H ratio just before the end of each injection decreased each day. A simplified infiltration model assuming a radial sharp-wetting-front with an increase in the distance of the wetting front from the well fits the observations. A three-dimensional variably saturated numerical flow model simulating the six injection events showed that the sharp wetting front at increasing radius is a reasonable simplification for this type of injection schedule. Monitoring of operational injection of rainwater harvested from an adjacent rooftop for a few months of a Mediterranean winter shows the opposite—a slight increase in the Q/H ratio as winter progresses. When the plume of relatively high pressure-head reaches the water-table, a continuous passage of higher hydraulic conductivity between the drywell and the aquifer is opened, and the Q/H ratio is expected to increase.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143385837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chong Wang, Yumo Wu, Liang Xie, Zhijie Yang, Jiaqi Tian, Fan Yu, Junping Ren, Shuangyang Li
{"title":"Estimating Soil-Water Characteristic Curve From the Particle Size Distribution With a Novel Granular Packing Model","authors":"Chong Wang, Yumo Wu, Liang Xie, Zhijie Yang, Jiaqi Tian, Fan Yu, Junping Ren, Shuangyang Li","doi":"10.1029/2024wr037262","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr037262","url":null,"abstract":"An indirect method is nowadays considered as an efficient way to obtain soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC) in engineering application. However, existing indirect models often oversimplify the soil pore and accumulation structure, which are not consistent with the natural soil. For this purpose, a novel granular packing state is obtained based on the relative compaction determined by porosity. A conceptual SWCC model (WANG24) is then established with particle size distribution (PSD) and the equivalent novel granular packing. 62 soils from 7 soil texture classes in the UNSODA database were used to validate WANG24. When comparing with the Mohammadi and Vanclooster (MV11), Arya and Heitman (AH15), and Arya and Paris (AP81) models, WANG24 shows its highest accuracy with lowest average root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.0243 (g·g<sup>−1</sup>). The capillary and adsorption on SWCC are also analyzed. The absolute errors between the soil water content predicted by equivalent novel granular packing and measured data are smaller than those of other packing states, mostly in the range of 0–0.015 (g·g<sup>−1</sup>). The soil packing states tend to be closer as the particle size decreases. In addition, the effect of initial void ratio to soil water content and matric head is explained. The model can reasonably describe the complexity of soil accumulation structure and improve prediction accuracy. It can provide a basis and reference for the subsequent hydraulic characterization of unsaturated soils.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"42 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143192360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Qing Zhong, Daoqin Tong, Courtney Crosson, Yinan Zhang, Rashi Bhushan
{"title":"Optimizing Investments in Alternative Water Infrastructure for Urban Food Production in Water Stressed Cities","authors":"Qing Zhong, Daoqin Tong, Courtney Crosson, Yinan Zhang, Rashi Bhushan","doi":"10.1029/2024wr039025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr039025","url":null,"abstract":"Urban agriculture has significant potential to address food security and nutritional challenges in cities. However, water access for urban food production poses a major challenge in the face of climate change and growing global freshwater scarcity, particularly in arid and semi-arid areas. To support sustainable urban food production, this study focuses on a hybrid urban water system that integrates two important alternative water resources: a decentralized system of rainwater harvesting (RWH) and a centralized reclaimed water system. A new spatial optimization model is developed to identify the best investment strategy for deploying these two alternative water infrastructures to expand urban food production. The model is applied to the case study in Tucson, Arizona, a semi-arid city in U.S. Southwest, to address food deserts in the region. Results show that 72%–96% of the investment is allocated to rainwater tanks deployment across all investment scenarios, with the proportion of investment in rainwater harvesting increasing as total investment rises. However, rainwater contributes only about 18%–27% of the total food production. The results of our case study indicate that expanding the reclaimed water network is more effective for urban food production and is also more cost-efficient compared to implementing rainwater tanks. The new model can be applied to other regions, taking into account factors such as crop types, climate, soil conditions, infrastructure configurations, costs, and other site-specific variables. The study provides valuable insights for planning urban water systems that incorporate alternative water sources under different investment scenarios.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143192361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sijal Dangol, Xuesong Zhang, Chao Sun, Kang Liang, Xin-Zhong Liang
{"title":"Impacts of Bioenergy Crop Cultivation on Regional Climate, Hydrology, and Water Quality in the U.S. Northern High Plains","authors":"Sijal Dangol, Xuesong Zhang, Chao Sun, Kang Liang, Xin-Zhong Liang","doi":"10.1029/2024wr037782","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr037782","url":null,"abstract":"The cultivation of bioenergy feedstocks, such as miscanthus, or energycane, on marginal lands helps alleviate the competition between food and fuel. However, such land use conversion could lead to complex interactions among climate, vegetation, and water resources, resulting in positive or negative environmental impacts. In this study, we used the Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) model to simulate the feedback from growing bioenergy crops on marginal lands to regional climate for the present and future scenarios and used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate the climate and land use change impacts on the hydrological cycle and water quality in the U.S. Northern High Plains Aquifer region. CWRF projects a wetter and cooler regional climate by considering climate-crop feedback as compared to a control scenario (no land use change and climate feedback), highlighting the importance of land-atmosphere interactions in regional climate assessment. Our watershed-scale assessment shows that although growing miscanthus increases local evapotranspiration and decreases surface runoff, soil moisture, and percolation on marginal lands, watershed-scale streamflow substantially increases during the growing season in both present and future conditions due to increases in regional precipitation. The differences in the extent of marginal land use change between the Platte (4%) and Republican (20%) river basins result in different responses in streamflow and nitrogen loading. Overall, our study highlights the importance of assessing the regional climate-crop feedback and environmental quality impacts of using marginal lands for future sustainable bioenergy production.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143192362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Hybrid Model Coupling Data and Hydraulic Transient Laws for Water Distribution Systems","authors":"Hexiang Yan, Shixun Li, Wenchong Tian, Jiaying Wang, Fei Li, Huanfeng Duan, Tao Tao, Kunlun Xin","doi":"10.1029/2023wr036641","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036641","url":null,"abstract":"The physics-informed neural network (PINN) method has been applied to solve water hammer equations in pipeline systems due to its ability of seamlessly integrate measurement data with conservation laws, offering advantages over traditional numerical method. However, existing PINN approaches require multiple neural networks to construct composite models for complex water distribution systems (WDS). This situation treats nodal information as boundary condition or labeled data during training, leading to a weaker robustness and a high demand for data. To address these issues, a hybrid water hammer model based on eXtended Physics-Informed Neural Networks for WDS (WDS-XPINN) is developed in this study. Unlike the standard PINN, WDS-XPINN incorporates the nodal mechanistic model directly into the loss function, enabling to synchronously train a unified neural network jointly through sparse augmented measurement data for pipeline system. Additionally, an adaptive weights method is introduced to improve model robustness by balancing the contributions of flowrates and pressures. The proposed WDS-XPINN is evaluated in two case studies: a series pipeline system with different operational events and noise perturbation, as well as a topological structure with looped and branched pipe. According to the simulation results and uncertainty analysis, the WDS-XPINN model demonstrates its excellent capacity of modeling fluid transient accurately in pipeline system, even without exact operational conditions or true pipe parameters.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143124898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
S. Baccour, A. Tilmant, J. Albiac, V. Espanmanesh, T. Kahil
{"title":"Probabilistic Trade-Offs Analysis for Sustainable and Equitable Management of Climate-Induced Water Risks","authors":"S. Baccour, A. Tilmant, J. Albiac, V. Espanmanesh, T. Kahil","doi":"10.1029/2024wr038514","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr038514","url":null,"abstract":"Pressures on water resources are fueling conflicts between sectors. This trend will likely worsen under future climate-induced water stress, jeopardizing food, energy and human water security in most arid and semi-arid regions. Probabilistic analysis using stochastic optimization modeling can characterize multi-sector vulnerabilities and risks associated with future water stress. This study identifies the probabilistic trade-offs between agricultural, urban and energy sectors in the Ebro Basin (Spain). Two intervention policies have been examined and compared: (a) agricultural priority, and (b) energy priority, for two planning horizons 2040–2070 and 2070–2100. Results show that the human water security goal is achieved under both intervention policies. However, the achievement of the food and energy security goals depends on the policy objectives and on the spatial location of irrigation schemes and hydropower plants, which result in different stream flows across the basin. The policy choice results in substantially different benefit gains and losses by sector and therefore by location. None of the sectoral production priority policy provides an equitable sharing of benefits among all sectors and locations under climate change, which is an important issue, because the success or failure of policy interventions would depend on the distribution of the gains and losses of benefits across the basin. Policy uptake by stakeholders would depend on reaching win-win outcomes where losers are compensated, while delivering acceptable levels of food, energy and human water security in large river basins. Information on the probabilistic trade-offs contributes to the design of water management strategies capable of addressing the multi-sector vulnerability.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143083640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}