Water Resources Research最新文献

{"title":"A Stacking Ensemble Model for Specific Yield Prediction: Framework Development and Application to Groundwater Storage Change Estimation in the North China Plain","authors":"Zhenyue Han, Aixi Gong, Haijun Hu, Fawen Li, Yong Zhao","doi":"10.1029/2025wr042085","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr042085","url":null,"abstract":"Specific yield (SY) is a key parameter in estimating groundwater storage change. Accurately predicting SY in unconfined aquifers remains challenging, as SY varies with groundwater-level fluctuations and unsaturated-zone moisture fluxes. This challenge is particularly evident in the North China Plain (NCP), which has experienced substantial fluctuations in groundwater resources. This study constructed and selected data-driven models to predict SY using hydroclimatic and hydrogeologic predictors. Additionally, input features were refined by assessing the contributions of driving factors. An ensemble prediction model for SY was developed using random forest and light gradient boosting machine as base learners, with seven input features including precipitation. The model achieved a NSE of 0.794 and a root mean square error of 0.0191 during the validation period. Based on the prediction model, the spatiotemporal distribution of SY across the NCP from 2004 to 2023 was updated and analyzed. The results show a mean SY of 0.070 for the NCP, with a declining trend of −2.62 × 10⁻³ decade⁻¹ from 2003 to 2023. Compared to the shallow groundwater storage anomalies (GWSA) calculated using a fixed SY, the shallow GWSA derived from the updated SY exhibits a more pronounced declining trend of 15.48 mm/yr and a stronger correlation (CC = 0.76) with the GWSA based on gravity recovery and climate experiment satellite data. The systematic framework proposed in this paper is effective for SY prediction and accurate GWSA assessment, providing critical technical support for sustainable groundwater resource management.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147287604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Capturing Non-Fickian Mesoscale Solute Transport in Porous Media: The Role of Transient Storage and Mass Exchange","authors":"Prasanjaya Ekanayake, Mariaines Di Dato, Daniele Tonina, Alberto Bellin","doi":"10.1029/2025wr041287","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr041287","url":null,"abstract":"Solute transport in porous media at the mesoscale, whose characteristic dimension is in the range of tens to hundreds of grain diameters, is governed by disordered pore-scale velocity fields, often producing a non-Fickian behavior that cannot be described by the classical Advection–Dispersion Equation (ADE) with constant dispersivity. We investigate this behavior using transport experiments in hydrogel bead media, combining planar laser-induced fluorescence and refractive index matching to obtain high-resolution tracer concentration data across a control plane. The resulting breakthrough curves (BTCs) exhibit long tailing, a sign of non-Fickian transport. To interpret the experimental results, we developed a stochastic model of the BTC at the control plane, considering both constant (Fickian) and time-varying dispersivity derived from theory. For the time-varying case, we used the macrodispersion stochastic model developed for heterogeneous formations. The Fickian limit was set using the analytical expression for spherical inclusions in uniform fluid flow, which was also applied to the constant dispersivity model. Both parameterizations capture the bulk of the BTC but fail to reproduce the tail. By incorporating a mobile–immobile mass exchange model to account for solute retention in low-velocity and stagnant zones, we achieved excellent agreement across the entire BTC with the analytical expressions of dispersivity. The fitted exchange parameters resulted in low Damköhler numbers, which confirm significant delay of a small portion of the injected mass as epitomized by slow exchange. These results underscore the importance of including transient storage processes in mesoscale transport models to predict BTC tailing and retention accurately.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147279327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhancing Farmer Acceptance of Water Allocation Schemes Through Integrating Prospect Theory and Bi-Level Optimization","authors":"Longbin Hao, Yuping Zhao, Shouhong Zhang, Yulei Xie, Xinyu Zhang, Fan Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2025wr042132","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr042132","url":null,"abstract":"Effective yet farmer accepted water allocation policies are paramount for sustainability, but most water allocation models often fail in practice. Predicated on assumptions of perfect rationality and single-level optimization, these models neglect farmers' psychological decision-making processes (e.g., loss aversion), leading to low acceptance and resulting implementation challenges. To bridge this critical gap, this paper introduces a novel framework that enhances farmers' acceptance of water allocation schemes. This framework integrates Prospect Theory (PT) to model farmers' behavioral responses to gains and losses, combined with Bi-level Multi-objective Programming (BLMOP) to capture hierarchical interactions between water managers and farmers. By embedding PT-derived reference points into BLMOP objective functions, we translate psychological thresholds into actionable allocation rules. Application in China's Heihe River Basin demonstrates how the framework aligns with farmers' psychological reference points to achieve behavioral efficacy, enhances water-use efficiency through optimized allocation, and boosts stakeholder satisfaction via bi-level coordination. Results indicated: (a) PT quantification reveals key psychological thresholds (e.g., 1.98 × 10⁵ CNY/ha prospect return for economic crops), identifying scenarios that best align with farmers' expectations; (b) Incorporating PT insights under variable flows reduced total allocation by 1.80 × 10⁵ m³, demonstrating efficiency improvements driven by behavioral insights, while increasing composite planting satisfaction by 15.52%; and (c) The PT-BLMOP framework outperformed benchmarks, achieving the highest comprehensive satisfaction index (0.67) and increasing total crop prospect returns by 289 million CNY. The findings support the transferability of this framework for developing high-adoption, behaviorally informed water policies aimed at water-scarce agricultural systems.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147279326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Empirical Model Combining Seismic Noise and Shear Stress to Predict Bedload Flux in a Gravel-Bed Alluvial Channel","authors":"Loc Luong, Daniel Cadol, Jens M. Turowski, Susan Bilek, J. Mitchell McLaughlin, Kyle Stark, Jonathan B. Laronne","doi":"10.1029/2025wr040371","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr040371","url":null,"abstract":"Bedload flux estimation from reach-averaged hydraulic conditions, while tractable and generally reliable over long integration periods, struggles to capture the intrinsic variability of transport in turbulent flow and the strong influence of local sediment size and morphological heterogeneity. Here we suggest an empirical equation to simplify the relationship between seismic power spectral density (PSD) and bedload flux relative to a full physics-based seismic model. We posit that adding seismic PSD as a predictor to hydraulics-based bedload equations improves bedload flux predictions by accounting for short- and medium-term flux variations independent of flow conditions. We present a new calibrated empirical equation combining seismic PSD and excess shear stress to predict bedload flux at high temporal resolution (minute-scale). The calibrated coefficients for the shear contribution are consistent with existing hydraulics-based equations (e.g., Meyer-Peter and Müller) that have been calibrated across a broad range of channels, suggesting that the values for the seismic parameter might also be broadly applicable across channels. In comparison to field data from a sandy-gravel-bed alluvial river in New Mexico, USA, the locally-trained equation reduces scatter in bedload flux predictions relative to methods solely using either seismic PSD or shear stress. We further validate the equation with independent flow events from the same river and from a separate gravel bed channel, the Nahal Eshtemoa in Israel. Notably, the seismic-hydraulic equation was able to be calibrated on low-transport data and reliably predict high-transport data. Likewise, the seismic-hydraulic equation reduced apparent overestimations of bedload flux by the hydraulics-based equation during high-shear conditions.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146778343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Novel Data-Driven Probabilistic Approach for Consequence Specific Urban Flood Risk Mapping","authors":"Padmini Ponukumati, Vani Cheruvu, Satish Kumar Regonda","doi":"10.1029/2025wr042621","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr042621","url":null,"abstract":"Urban floods are increasing in frequency, causing significant socio-economic impacts, especially where risk mitigation is limited. Conventional hydrologic and hydraulic models identify flood-prone areas but demand extensive data and computation, whereas risk mapping offers a data-efficient alternative by integrating elements at risk such as population and infrastructure. This study develops a probabilistic framework for consequence-specific urban flood risk mapping, defining risk as the product of hazard and vulnerability probabilities. Hazard maps are generated from three rainfall events using non-exceedance probabilities of best-fit distributions. Similarly, indicator-specific vulnerabilities are estimated for each consequence and are combined via a linear aggregation. Indicator weights are derived using a novel Empirical-Improved Analytical Hierarchy Process (E-IAHP), replacing subjective judgments with a statistical measure (absolute correlation coefficient in this study), thereby ensuring objectivity and computational efficiency. The framework is flexible across temporal scales and can incorporate additional hazard attributes when required. The approach produces tailored risk maps for three urban flood consequences, that is, disruption of emergency service, traffic disruption, and economic losses of buildings, revealing distinct spatial patterns across central, south-central and northern wards. Event specific crowdsourced flood locations provide indirect validation of the estimated risk patterns. Overall the framework demonstrates its adaptability for real-time flood assessment and broader disaster management applications.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"285 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146778344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating SWOT With Multi-Source Satellite Observations for Near-Daily Reservoir Water Level Monitoring","authors":"Pengfei Zhan, Jida Wang, Tan Chen, Shuangxiao Luo, Kai Liu, Linghong Ke, Chenyu Fan, Yaling Lin, Chunqiao Song","doi":"10.1029/2024wr039711","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr039711","url":null,"abstract":"Reservoirs play a crucial role in global water resource management. Monitoring reservoir hydrologic dynamics is critical for assessing climate variability and anthropogenic regulation. However, traditional satellite altimetry faces multiple challenges hindering high frequency and accuracy water level monitoring. This study develops a proof-of-concept framework that integrates multi-source satellite data, with the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission as the primary data source, to generate high-resolution reservoir water level time series. The SWOT-anchored integration framework establishes a unified two-dimensional height reference by rule-based virtual station selection and monthly water surface elevation difference fields. On this reference frame, heterogeneous nadir/laser altimetry from multiple missions are cross-calibrated, while multi-source area series are converted to dense levels via reservoir-specific hypsometry model and then fused. The framework's robustness and re-applicability were confirmed using eight representative Chinese reservoirs. Results demonstrate that the integrated multi-source water level time series significantly enhanced observation frequency, achieving near-daily temporal resolution and capturing detailed non-linear and short-term water level dynamics. The water level observation frequency for all reservoirs based on SWOT exceeds 20 times per yr, with the highest reaching 38 times. After multi-sensor synthesis, the water level observation frequency increased by 3.2–8.1 times, yielding an average of 121 observations annually. Validation results showed strong correlations (<i>R</i>² &gt; 0.90) and low errors (0.46 m ≥ MAE ≥ 0.11 m), confirming the method's robustness and effectiveness. Instead of treating SWOT as another input, this framework standardizes water levels across sensors and tracks, enabling a scalable and transferable multi-mission synthesis for global reservoir monitoring under changing climatic and anthropogenic pressures.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"96 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146231305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Eddy-Controlled Anomalous Transport in Rough Conduits: Physics-Based Parameterization and Distributed Modeling","authors":"Zhongxia Li, Yun Yang, Haibo Feng, Junwei Wan, Jianmei Cheng, Hongbin Zhan, Xixian Kang, Chong Ma, Xianshuo Yang, Kun Huang, Taotao Lu","doi":"10.1029/2025wr041456","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr041456","url":null,"abstract":"Karst conduits play an important role in the process of groundwater and material transport, in which pollutants can move quickly and pollute groundwater easily. Considering the different shapes of karst conduits, hydrodynamic conditions and other factors, eddy generation is very common. After the solute is trapped in the eddy zone, which usually results in the tailing of solutes, typically referred to as non-Fickian migration or anomalous transport. Many solute transport models have been proposed to explain this phenomenon reasonably and prepare to capture the solute breakthrough curve (BTC), although the model parameters lack a clear physical background. In this study, a series of different types of rough conduits were designed to quantitatively evaluate the influence of eddies on solute transport. A new method for the quantitative identification of the eddy zone is proposed. The quantitative relationship between different flow velocities, roughness shape, relative roughness and the eddy area proportion is summarized. A new model of solute transport under the influence of eddies was proposed based on the traditional mobile-immobile model, and the physical meaning of the model parameters was clarified. The ability of the new model to capture the breakthrough curve is satisfactory, which can effectively serve the engineered settings.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"107 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146231301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Navigating the Stormy Waters of Regulation: An Agent-Based Modeling and Decision-Support Framework for Groundwater Compliance and Enforcement","authors":"Marcos Canales, Juan Castilla-Rho, Rodrigo Rojas, Cameron Holley, Darren Sinclair","doi":"10.1029/2024wr039182","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr039182","url":null,"abstract":"Water resources sustainability hinges upon an efficient and effective regulatory compliance and enforcement strategy that steers the collective actions of interdependent stakeholders. Achieving this goal is particularly challenging for groundwater due to its hidden nature, significant knowledge gaps about its state, its status as a common-pool resource, the value-laden nature of compliance, and historically under-resourced enforcement efforts. To address these challenges, this article introduces BEACON, a framework grounded in theories and empirical findings from regulatory compliance and enforcement research, to conceptualize farmers' compliance behaviors with existing groundwater allocation rules within the New South Wales regulatory context. Building on this foundation, we then present an ABM and apply it through a GSA to unravel the dynamics of compliance, enforcement, and deterrence of groundwater allocations. Findings reveal how increasing investments in surveillance trigger a consistent, nonlinear response in regulatory compliance and illegal water take. On the whole, BEACON and its implementation via the ABM stand as Regulatory Technology tools, aiming to provide new insights into the often assumed links between well-crafted regulations and their outcomes and, in doing so, pave the way for innovative approaches in regulatory policy design and implementation for groundwater sustainability.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"49 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146231300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Streamflow Dynamics Across an Urbanizing Karst Watershed in the Ridge and Valley Province","authors":"Alexandra Orr, Jonathan Duncan, Lauren McPhillips, Tyler Groh, Elizabeth W. Boyer","doi":"10.1029/2025wr041126","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr041126","url":null,"abstract":"Effective freshwater management depends on understanding how human activities and geological processes influence streamflow dynamics. Urbanization disrupts natural hydrological processes, altering both stormflow and baseflow. Karst watersheds, characterized by complex and heterogeneous surface-groundwater interactions, pose unique challenges for predicting the impacts of urban development on streamflow. This study investigates how urbanization and karst groundwater interactions influence streamflow variability in a mixed land-use watershed within the Ridge and Valley Province of central Pennsylvania. We analyzed 24 years (2000–2024) of streamflow data from 14 monitoring stations spanning gradients in urbanization (10%–90% developed land) and karst geology. Streamflow metrics including flow duration curves, baseflow index, Richards-Baker flashiness index, master recession curve slopes, and low-flow trends, were used to assess land use and groundwater controls. Urbanization increased stream flashiness, steepened recession rates, and decreased the proportion of base flow. Streams with the highest levels of development exhibited most sensitivity to further increases in urban land cover. In contrast, streams with substantial groundwater inputs exhibited more stable baseflows and were less sensitive to drought conditions. Stormwater infiltration and wastewater recycling supported low-flow regimes, partially offsetting development effects, whereas recent growth combined with groundwater withdrawals led to reduced low flows in some areas. These findings highlight the need to account for hydrological complexity and groundwater recharge when managing water resources in increasingly urbanized karst watersheds.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146778346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Silenced Rapids and Waterfalls: Habitat Loss and Management of Bypassed Reaches in the Regulated Rivers of Sweden","authors":"Joel Segersten, Roland Jansson, Erik Degerman, Serena Donadi, Åsa Widén, Birgitta Malm-Renöfält, Brendan G. McKie","doi":"10.1029/2025wr040752","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr040752","url":null,"abstract":"Habitat destruction is a global driver of biodiversity loss. In rivers, damming and river regulation for hydropower have caused extensive loss of high gradient, riffle, rapid and waterfall habitats. Restoring these habitats, which support unique biodiversity, should be an urgent priority, but inadequate documentation hampers evaluation of different management strategies. Focusing on Sweden, where river regulation affects most catchments, we mapped and quantified characteristics (e.g., slope, length, discharge) of 968 bypassed reaches (BRs), that is, river sections that are dewatered due to diversion of discharge for hydropower production. The extent of habitat loss associated with BRs is substantial, summing to a total length of 1,256 km, 94% of which is predominantly comprised of former riffles, rapids and waterfalls. BRs are typically located in larger rivers at central river network positions, highlighting their potential importance for hydrological and ecological connectivity. These habitat losses are poorly addressed by current management: three quarters of Swedish BRs have no mandated minimum discharge. Of the remainder, 88% have a discharge &lt;2 m³/s, a flow threshold below which, on average, the proportion of rheophilic fish decline rapidly in Swedish BRs. Based on these findings for Sweden, and given the ubiquity of hydropower elsewhere, we suggest that the thousands of kilometers of mostly dry high-gradient habitat linked to diversion hydropower worldwide likely represent high value restoration targets. Increased, ecologically meaningful, flow releases in these reaches has great potential to rehabilitate essential habitat for threatened rheophilic organisms and ecosystem functioning of regulated rivers.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"232 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146223371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}