Zhaoyang Luo, Jun Kong, Xiayang Yu, Chao Gao, D. A. Barry, Simone Fatichi
{"title":"Seawater Intrusion Inhibits Nitrate Removal in Tidal Marsh Aquifers","authors":"Zhaoyang Luo, Jun Kong, Xiayang Yu, Chao Gao, D. A. Barry, Simone Fatichi","doi":"10.1029/2024wr038107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr038107","url":null,"abstract":"Tidal freshwater marshes are threatened by seawater intrusion globally due to freshwater discharge reduction and sea-level rise. However, terrestrial nitrate (NO<sub>3</sub><sup>−</sup>) transport responding to seawater intrusion remains poorly understood in tidal marshes. After validation against laboratory experiments, numerical simulations were conducted to analyze seawater intrusion effects on terrestrial NO<sub>3</sub><sup>−</sup> transport and transformation in tidal marsh aquifers. Results reveal that seawater intrusion noticeably affects NO<sub>3</sub><sup>−</sup> transport from the marsh aquifer to the tidal creek. Seawater intrusion results in an upper saline plume and a saltwater wedge within the aquifer, which markedly narrows the discharge outlet width of the NO<sub>3</sub><sup>−</sup> plume and intensifies the peak NO<sub>3</sub><sup>−</sup> flux across the creek bank. Consequently, both the NO<sub>3</sub><sup>−</sup> removal efficiency and total nitrogen gas load to the creek decrease substantially after seawater intrusion. This is because the reduction of the transit time and the mixing zone width of the NO<sub>3</sub><sup>−</sup> plume after seawater intrusion weakens denitrification. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the difference of the NO<sub>3</sub><sup>−</sup> removal efficiency before and after seawater intrusion depends on soil properties. A larger unsaturated flow effect, saturated hydraulic conductivity or effective porosity leads to a greater difference of the NO<sub>3</sub><sup>−</sup> removal efficiency before and after seawater intrusion. The predicted decrease of the NO<sub>3</sub><sup>−</sup> removal efficiency after seawater intrusion is consistent with existing field data.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142142884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Faisal M. Alghamdi, Eric C. Edwards, Emily Z. Berglund
{"title":"Dynamic Pricing Framework for Water Demand Management Using Advanced Metering Infrastructure Data","authors":"Faisal M. Alghamdi, Eric C. Edwards, Emily Z. Berglund","doi":"10.1029/2023wr035246","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr035246","url":null,"abstract":"This research investigates dynamic pricing as a demand management tool to reduce cost and increase the lifespan of water distribution systems by reducing peak hour demand. Individual consumer responses to changes in hourly water price are simulated using advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data. Demand profiles are used as input to a hydraulic simulation model to evaluate the effects of changing demands on flows and in-network metrics. The framework is applied to Lakewood City, California, using a model of the pipe network and AMI data collected at nearly 20,000 accounts. Four dynamic pricing policies are applied to the model to show that reductions in morning peak demand ranging from 6% to 25% reduce peak energy demands up to 14%. These small changes in overall energy demand, up to a 1.7% reduction, lead to relatively larger overall reductions in energy cost, up to 5.5%. The results demonstrate the importance of dynamic pricing as a demand-side strategy for infrastructure management and highlight the potential to accommodate demand growth without additional infrastructure investments.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142142885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Phenological Shifts in Lake Ice Cover Across the Northern Hemisphere: A Glimpse Into the Past, Present, and the Future of Lake Ice Phenology","authors":"A. Basu, J. Culpepper, K. Blagrave, S. Sharma","doi":"10.1029/2023wr036392","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036392","url":null,"abstract":"Long-term ice phenology records quantify the effects of climate change on Northern Hemisphere lakes. This study uses lake ice phenological records across a gradient of lake sizes (0.1–31,967.8 km<sup>2</sup> in lake surface area) obtained from community science networks. We compiled in situ ice phenological records for 2,499 lakes across 15 countries for an average of 30 years. These data revealed that for the last 50 years (1971–2020), the annual mean duration of lake ice cover decreased at a rate of 9 days per decade, with a regime shift in lake ice phenology in the late 1980s. We projected that at the end of the century (2070–2099), ice duration will decrease by an average of 10 days when compared to the historical time period (1971–2000) for the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 1–2.6 climate scenario (SSP126), 23 days for SSP370, and 28 days for the SSP585. Impending human development can enhance or attenuate lake ice loss, as adaptation strategies can accelerate fossil fuel use, result in conflict, or seek strategies apart from fossil fuel development. These future pathways have critical implications for the future preservation of lake ice cover.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142118244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Baogui Li, Lili Tan, Xueliang Zhang, Junyu Qi, Gary W. Marek, Puyu Feng, De Li Liu, Xi Luo, Raghavan Srinivasan, Yong Chen
{"title":"Enhanced Freeze-Thaw Cycle Altered the Simulations of Groundwater Dynamics in a Heavily Irrigated Basin in the Temperate Region of China","authors":"Baogui Li, Lili Tan, Xueliang Zhang, Junyu Qi, Gary W. Marek, Puyu Feng, De Li Liu, Xi Luo, Raghavan Srinivasan, Yong Chen","doi":"10.1029/2023wr036151","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036151","url":null,"abstract":"With intensified global warming, accurate quantification of hydrological processes in seasonally frozen regions, particularly with irrigated overwinter crops, is necessary to develop management strategies that promote groundwater conservation. By incorporating a physically based freeze-thaw cycle module into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT-FT) model, variations of surface hydrology and groundwater dynamics were systematically assessed in North China Plain under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways during 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 periods between the conventional and improved SWAT models. Compared to the conventional SWAT model, the SWAT-FT model predicted an increase in soil water content, decrease in irrigation, and an increase in percolation during the growing season of winter wheat. These discrepancies resulted in a 5% higher decline rates of shallow groundwater levels simulated by the SWAT model compared to the SWAT-FT. Additionally, the SWAT-FT model projected that the average decline rates of shallow groundwater levels were approximately 0.90 ± 0.16 m yr<sup>−1</sup> (SSP1-2.6), 0.60 ± 0.46 m yr<sup>−1</sup> (SSP2-4.5), and −0.17 ± 0.53 m yr<sup>−1</sup> (SSP5-8.5), respectively, during 2071–2100 compared to the historical period. The SWAT-FT simulations indicated that the decline rates in shallow groundwater levels were projected to either decrease slowly or potentially increase by the end of the 21st century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, potentially achieving equilibrium between shallow groundwater extraction and replenishment. Our study emphasized the importance of considering the freeze-thaw processes to evaluate groundwater variations more accurately in response to climate change effects in temperate regions with an overwinter crop.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142101361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Si Suo, Doireann O’Kiely, Mingchao Liu, Yixiang Gan
{"title":"Geometry Effects on Interfacial Dynamics of Gas-Driven Drainage in a Gradient Capillary","authors":"Si Suo, Doireann O’Kiely, Mingchao Liu, Yixiang Gan","doi":"10.1029/2023wr036766","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036766","url":null,"abstract":"Unfavorable fluid-fluid displacement, where a low-viscosity fluid displaces a higher-viscosity fluid in permeable media, is commonly encountered in various subsurface processes. Understanding the formation and evolution of the resulting interfacial instability can have practical benefits for engineering applications. Using gradient capillary tubes as surrogate models of permeable media, we numerically investigate interfacial dynamics during gas-driven drainage. Our focus is on understanding the impact of tube geometry on interface stability. In a gradient tube, since the interface shape changes during the drainage process, we measure interfacial stability using the difference between the contact-line velocity <i>U</i><sub>cl</sub> and the meniscus tip velocity <i>U</i><sub>tip</sub>. We define instability as a rapid reduction in the contact line velocity <i>U</i><sub>cl</sub> compared to the tip velocity <i>U</i><sub>tip</sub>. Beyond the onset of this instability, gas penetrates into the liquid, forming a finger, and entraining a liquid film on the tube wall. The observed stability transition can be rationalized to a large extent by adaptation of an existing theory for cylindrical tubes in terms of a critical capillary number Ca<sub>crit</sub>. For an expanding tube, simulations suggest that a stability transition from an initially unstable meniscus to a final stable one, with <i>U</i><sub>cl</sub> catching up with <i>U</i><sub>tip</sub>, can occur if the local capillary number is initially slightly larger than Ca<sub>crit</sub> and then drops below Ca<sub>crit</sub>. The insights gained from this study can be beneficial in estimating the mode and efficiency of subsurface fluid displacement.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142101355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Antônio Alves Meira Neto, Pedro Medeiros, José Carlos de Araújo, Bruno Pereira, Murugesu Sivapalan
{"title":"Evolution of Drought Mitigation and Water Security Through 100 Years of Reservoir Expansion in Semi-Arid Brazil","authors":"Antônio Alves Meira Neto, Pedro Medeiros, José Carlos de Araújo, Bruno Pereira, Murugesu Sivapalan","doi":"10.1029/2023wr036411","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036411","url":null,"abstract":"Brazil's Northeast region (BRN), especially the state of Ceará (CE), has dealt historically with severe drought events since the late 1800s, which commonly led to catastrophic impacts of mass migration and deaths of thousands of people. Throughout the last century, the “Droughts Polygon” region experienced an intense infrastructural development, with the expansion of a dense network of reservoirs. This paper presents a parsimonious hydrologic modeling approach to investigate the 100-year (1920–2020) evolution of the hydrology of the 24,500 km<sup>2</sup> Upper Jaguaribe Basin, throughout the development of a dense reservoir network. We aimed at reproducing the hydrology at the basin scale and analyzed the outcomes of reservoir expansion in terms of water fluxes and water security. Our model's structure captured the growth in reservoir count and storage capacity, which was then confronted with an evolving water demand, allowing us to estimate how water security (i.e., proportion of demand being met) varied over the 100-year period. Significant streamflow reduction at the basin's outlet and increase in evaporation losses, associated with a decrease in streamflow at varying exceedance frequencies were observed at the end of the study period. While reservoir expansion allowed for the transition from complete vulnerability to meteorological droughts to increased levels of water security, drought impacts had, in the meantime, disproportionally intensified, especially in reservoirs of medium to small capacities. Smaller reservoirs are suggested to have played the role of distributing water resources throughout the region, while larger reservoirs were more efficient as tools to promote water security.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142101360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Snow Distribution Patterns Revisited: A Physics-Based and Machine Learning Hybrid Approach to Snow Distribution Mapping in the Sub-Arctic","authors":"R. L. Crumley, C. L. Bachand, K. E. Bennett","doi":"10.1029/2023wr036180","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036180","url":null,"abstract":"Snowpack distribution in Arctic and alpine landscapes often occurs in repeating, year-to-year patterns due to local topographic, weather, and vegetation characteristics. Previous studies have suggested that with years of observational data, these snow distribution patterns can be statistically integrated into a snow process modeling workflow. Recent advances in snow hydrology and machine learning (ML) have increased our ability to predict snowpack distribution using in-situ observations, remote sensing data sets, and simple landscape characteristics that can be easily obtained for most environments. Here, we propose a hybrid approach to couple a ML snow distribution pattern (MLSDP) map with a physics-based, snow process model. We trained a random forest ML algorithm on tens of thousands of snow survey observations from a subarctic study area on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, collected during peak snow water equivalent (SWE). We validated hybrid model outputs using in-situ snow depth and SWE observations, as well as a light detection and ranging data set and a distributed temperature profiling sensor data set. When the hybrid results were compared with the physics-based method, the hybrid method more accurately depicted the spatial patterns of the snowpack, areas of drifting snow, and years when no in-situ observations were used in the random forest ML training data set. The hybrid method also showed improvements in root mean squared error at 61% of locations where time-series estimations of snow depth were observed. These results can be applied to any physics-based model to improve the snow distribution patterning to reflect observed conditions in high latitude and high elevation cold region environments.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142101390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. J. Yeo, E. J. Anderson, C. Jablonowski, D. M. Wright, G. E. Mann, A. Fujisaki-Manome, B. Mroczka, D. Titze
{"title":"Assessing the Potential for Medium-Range Ice Forecasts in the Laurentian Great Lakes","authors":"A. J. Yeo, E. J. Anderson, C. Jablonowski, D. M. Wright, G. E. Mann, A. Fujisaki-Manome, B. Mroczka, D. Titze","doi":"10.1029/2024wr037507","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr037507","url":null,"abstract":"Real-time forecasted ice information for large lakes, such as the Great Lakes, is critical for essential operations, such as ice breaking, commercial navigation, search and rescue, and oil spill response. Existing forecast products for large lake ice conditions are not available for medium-range time horizons (5–16 days out), yet they could provide important information for decision making, particularly for ice breaking and spill responses. In addition, ice forecasts for Earth's largest lakes at these timescales could be important for Medium-Range Weather (MRW) forecasting. However, the skill of existing operational products in predicting ice conditions at MRW timescales has not been studied. This work aims to determine how well ice forecasts from a coupled large lake hydrodynamic-ice model perform for MRW forecast horizons. Simulations were carried out for the 2022 Great Lakes ice season, using 8 different 16-day forecast periods. Forecast results were compared to observations of meteorology and ice conditions from the U.S. National Ice Center. Results show the MRW ice forecasts in the Great Lakes outperform persistence-based forecasts. These findings could inform the development or extension of lake operational ice forecasting and the potential of coupling between atmospheric and large lake models at medium-range forecast time scales.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142101357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Xun Zhang, Simin Jiang, Na Zheng, Xuemin Xia, Zhi Li, Ruicheng Zhang, Jiangjiang Zhang, Xinshu Wang
{"title":"Integration of DDPM and ILUES for Simultaneous Identification of Contaminant Source Parameters and Non-Gaussian Channelized Hydraulic Conductivity Field","authors":"Xun Zhang, Simin Jiang, Na Zheng, Xuemin Xia, Zhi Li, Ruicheng Zhang, Jiangjiang Zhang, Xinshu Wang","doi":"10.1029/2023wr036893","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036893","url":null,"abstract":"Identifying highly channelized hydraulic conductivity fields and contaminant source parameters remains a challenging task, primarily due to the non-Gaussian nature and high dimensionality of the parameter space, as well as the computational burden caused by repeatedly running forward numerical models. This study proposes a novel deep learning parameterization method called AEdiffusion, which combines Diffusion Denoising Probabilistic Model (DDPM) with Variational Autoencoder (VAE) for dimensionality reduction. The method employs a generator-refiner strategy to generate high-dimensional aquifer properties from low-dimensional latent representations. The inversion modeling was performed on a synthetic non-Gaussian hydraulic conductivity field with line-source contamination using the Iterative Local Updating Ensemble Smoother (ILUES) algorithm. The results demonstrate that the AEdiffusion-ILUES framework can accurately identify model parameters. To reduce the computational burden, an AR-Net-WL (ARNW) surrogate model was introduced, resulting in an efficient inversion framework (AEdiffusion-ILUES-ARNW) with similar prediction accuracy and predictive uncertainty estimation as the AEdiffusion-ILUES but at a lower computational cost.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142101356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jiang Yu, Yong Tian, Xiaoli Wang, Taotao Sun, Michele Lancia, Charles B. Andrews, Chunmiao Zheng
{"title":"Integrated Modeling of Flow, Soil Erosion, and Nutrient Dynamics in a Regional Watershed: Assessing Natural and Human-Induced Impacts","authors":"Jiang Yu, Yong Tian, Xiaoli Wang, Taotao Sun, Michele Lancia, Charles B. Andrews, Chunmiao Zheng","doi":"10.1029/2024wr037531","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr037531","url":null,"abstract":"Current integrated modeling frameworks for simulating nutrient sources and dynamics are inadequate for large regional watersheds dominated by groundwater-surface water interactions due to their simplistic representations of groundwater. In this study, we develop a coupled model that integrates comprehensive surface water, 3-D groundwater, soil erosion, and nutrient processes. The model is intended to enhance the understanding of nutrient dynamics and sources in the Pearl River Basin (PRB). The model exhibits satisfactory performance in simulating streamflow and sediment transport patterns, capturing essential seasonal variations in water quality indicators. Hydrological budget assessments from 2002 to 2020 in the PRB reveal that 54% of precipitation drains into the South China Sea as surface water, while groundwater discharge as baseflow accounts for 18% of the streamflow. The nutrient budget for the PRB indicates that non-point sources are the dominant contributors to both nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), ranging between 64% and 90%. Improved sewage collection and treatment have reduced point source nutrient contributions over the evaluation period. Groundwater remains a significant and consistent source of N, contributing between 11% and 19%. Natural disturbances and fertilization have led to an upward trend in river N inputs, while afforestation and sewage reduction efforts have resulted in a downward trend in river P inputs. Increased fertilization emerges as a central concern for the PRB, suggesting cost-effective mitigation of fertilizer usage a pragmatic solution. The coupled simulation model developed in this study offers a novel systems approach for basin-wide nutrient analysis and pollution control strategies, considering both natural and human-induced disturbances.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142085582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}