{"title":"Enhancing Aquifer Characterization With Position-Encoded Hyperparameters: A Novel ES-SIFG Approach","authors":"Meng Sun, Qiankun Luo, Yun Yang, Tongchao Nan, Jiangjiang Zhang, Lei Ma, Yu Li, Haichun Ma, Ming Lei, Yaping Deng, Jiazhong Qian","doi":"10.1029/2024wr038468","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr038468","url":null,"abstract":"To accurately predict groundwater flow and solute transport, it is essential to precisely characterize the highly heterogeneous aquifer conditions. Ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ESMDA), though widely applied to identify aquifer properties and spatial features, encounters severe problems in practice due its fundamental assumptions of linearity and Gaussianity. To tackle this challenge, we first use a spatially-informed field generator (SIFG) to hyperparameterize the conductivity field and encode position information into the hyperparameters, and then combine it with ensemble smoother to form a new inversion framework called ensemble smoother with SIFG (ES-SIFG). In ES-SIFG, followed by utilizing an ensemble smoother to update the hyperparameters rather than the aquifer parameters. The main innovation of ES-SIFG is integrating positional information into hyperparameters, enabling the use of distance-based covariance localization (CL) and significantly reducing the number of model simulations. The proposed method has been tested on parameter identification problems in 2-D and 3-D non-Gaussian aquifers and compared to ESMDA with normal score transformation. Results indicate that ES-SIFG outperforms ESMDA and is capable of accurately identifying non-Gaussian aquifer parameters and reconstructing contaminant release history, particularly in resolving equifinality and preserving prior geological structure. Furthermore, SIFG allows usage of CL between hyperparameters and observations, which ensures the stable convergence of data assimilation processes even with very small ensemble sizes.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144371088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hai Zhu, Kejie Chen, Mingjia Li, Shunqiang Hu, Guoqing Zhang, Xingxing Kuang, Wenfeng Cui, Shengpeng Zhang, Junguo Liu
{"title":"Terrestrial Water Storage Changes of Qinghai Lake on the Tibetan Plateau From Joint Inversion of GNSS and InSAR Data","authors":"Hai Zhu, Kejie Chen, Mingjia Li, Shunqiang Hu, Guoqing Zhang, Xingxing Kuang, Wenfeng Cui, Shengpeng Zhang, Junguo Liu","doi":"10.1029/2024wr039503","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr039503","url":null,"abstract":"Although geodetic techniques like Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment have been widely applied to investigate terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations at regional or basin scales on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) caused by global warming, their coarse spatial has limited the study of individual lakes. In this study, we overcome this limitation by jointly using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data to generate a high-precision, high-resolution surface deformation field, enabling the quantitative assessment of TWS changes for Qinghai Lake, from January 2016 to December 2022. By leveraging Independent Component Analysis to extract surface deformation induced by lake hydrological loads, we find that the deformation caused by Qinghai Lake's hydrological changes is spatially limited to within approximately 25 km of the lake and is largely overshadowed by regional background loads of the TP. The region surrounding Qinghai Lake exhibited an overall trend of initial subsidence (from January 2016 to August 2019, −2.89 to −0.30 mm/yr) followed by uplift (from September 2019 to December 2022, 2.20 to 4.89 mm/yr), primarily driven by variations in precipitation patterns. Notably, we found that lake water volume increase accounts for up to 86% of the total TWS changes in Qinghai Lake, underscoring the relatively marginal role of groundwater compared to previous assessments in Inner TP where groundwater accounted for 34% of TWS changes. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of integrating GNSS and InSAR data to overcome spatial resolution limitations, providing detailed insights into the hydrological dynamics of individual lakes like Qinghai Lake, and contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of TP's hydrological changes under the influence of climate change.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144341185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Decoupling Phytoplankton Biomass—Sediment Phosphorus Interaction Induced by Lower Incident Radiation Mainly Drives the Attenuation of Harmful Algal Blooms in Lake Taihu, China","authors":"Ting Pan, Justin Brookes, Chixiao Cui, Boqiang Qin, Kan Ding, Yunlin Zhang, Guangwei Zhu","doi":"10.1029/2024wr039014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr039014","url":null,"abstract":"The occurrence, timing and development of algal blooms can be unpredictable under changing climatic conditions. Dramatic fluctuations in algal biomass patterns occurred in Lake Taihu, with a notable surge in blooms magnitude during 2016–2020 followed by a sudden decrease in algal biomass in the period of 2021–2023. The mechanisms underlying this variability are not well understood. Here, a process-based model was developed to quantify the drivers behind the transition from higher to lower algal biomass patterns. The lower spring photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) during 2021–2023 decreased algal photosynthesis and algal biomass. The subsequent weak phytoplankton–phosphorus (from the sediment) feedback, resulted in decreased phosphate concentration, which in turn further reduced algal biomass. This mechanism underscores the importance of understanding internal nutrient dynamics and the need for stricter measures to reduce external loads to weaken the internal feedback loop between sediment phosphorus release and algal bloom outbreaks, and further to mitigate the effects of climate change on lake ecosystems.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144371086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yusen Yuan, Kenneth C. Carroll, Manoj K. Shukla, Dale F. Rucker, Erek H. Fuchs, Autumn J. Pearson, Chia-Hsing Tsai, Delbert Humberson
{"title":"Intermittent and Transient River-Groundwater Transitions From Disconnection to Connection","authors":"Yusen Yuan, Kenneth C. Carroll, Manoj K. Shukla, Dale F. Rucker, Erek H. Fuchs, Autumn J. Pearson, Chia-Hsing Tsai, Delbert Humberson","doi":"10.1029/2024wr038069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr038069","url":null,"abstract":"Intermittent river-groundwater connectivity can be a dynamic, transient process, but quantifying transition from disconnection to connection has focused mainly on steady-state behavior. To quantitatively evaluate the transient connection behavior, HYDRUS-2D was used to simulate the water flow beneath the lower Rio Grande riverbed in southern New Mexico during the beginning of dam water release. The river wave initially arrived in the channel center and later spread across the entire channel. The infiltration was monitored by shallow buried water content and pressure sensors. Transient and steady-state simulations were used to quantify the relationship between hydraulic head difference and the infiltration rate during transition to connection. Transient and steady state disconnection-connection transitions were both impacted by heterogeneity when evaluated with infiltration versus head difference. During surface water arrival, steady-state infiltration behavior only increased nonlinearly with head difference, whereas transient infiltration behavior increased and then decreased with increasing head difference. This revealed three piecewise linear trends oriented in a triangular shape including both increases and decreases of infiltration rates. Infiltration tends to be significantly underestimated at the beginning of surface water arrival, when using steady-state conditions rather than transient conditions. These findings have implications for informing management of ephemeral stream systems, which impacts water resources prediction and sustainable water management, especially in arid and semi-arid regions where intermittent streams and rivers are more common.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144371087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Joshua D. Larsen, Ayman H. Alzraiee, Richard G. Niswonger, Donald J. Martin, Cheryl A. Buchwald, Cheryl Dieter, Carol Luukkonen, Jana S. Stewart, Scott Paulinski, Lisa Miller, Natalie A. Houston
{"title":"Public Supply Water Delivery Analysis and Estimation for the Conterminous United States","authors":"Joshua D. Larsen, Ayman H. Alzraiee, Richard G. Niswonger, Donald J. Martin, Cheryl A. Buchwald, Cheryl Dieter, Carol Luukkonen, Jana S. Stewart, Scott Paulinski, Lisa Miller, Natalie A. Houston","doi":"10.1029/2024wr039271","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr039271","url":null,"abstract":"Public supply water withdrawals represent 14% of all withdrawals in the conterminous United States (CONUS), supplying approximately 87% of the population with fresh water. Deliveries for public water supply are crucial for associating water use amounts with populations because they often differ from total withdrawals due to wholesales, transfers, losses, and other factors. Understanding these differences helps identify the drivers for each type of delivery. The goal of this study was to compile all available public water supply delivery data for the CONUS and develop a data-driven model to estimate deliveries for all water service areas within the CONUS. Annual deliveries were estimated between 2010 and 2020, encompassing total water deliveries; combined commercial, industrial, and institutional deliveries (CII); and domestic deliveries. Data were compiled for 2,744 water service areas to produce the most comprehensive public water supply delivery data set for the CONUS to date. Three ensemble modeling approaches were developed to estimate total, CII, and domestic per capita (DPC) deliveries using a gradient boosted regression tree modeling approach. Estimates of daily domestic and CII per capita deliveries were generated from these models for approximately 18,800 water service areas, covering most public water systems in the CONUS. Domestic delivery was found to be lowest in the midwestern region and higher in the southern and southwest regions of the United States. Results indicate that climate and land use can be associated with regional differences in DPC delivery. Population metrics and land use were identified as significant contributors to CII delivery estimates.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144320394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
J. S. Nanditha, Gabriele Villarini, Hanbeen Kim, Philippe Naveau
{"title":"Causal Attribution of the Interannual Variability in Flood Peaks Through Bayesian Networks","authors":"J. S. Nanditha, Gabriele Villarini, Hanbeen Kim, Philippe Naveau","doi":"10.1029/2024wr039385","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr039385","url":null,"abstract":"Classical regression models, due to the limited computational expense and good performance, can be used for the attribution of interannual variability in flood peaks. However, these models capture the relation between predictand (i.e., flood peaks) and predictors (i.e., climate variables), suffering from the disconnect between correlation and causation. Here, we utilize a causal Bayesian Network model to establish causal relationships between flood peaks and basin- and season-averaged precipitation and temperature, which were found to be useful predictors in previous regression-based attribution studies. We develop these models for seasonal flood peaks for 3,884 gauges across the conterminous Unites States, achieving a median Spearman's rank correlation above 0.7. By performing <i>do-</i>calculus intervention on the predictors, we found a strong causal relationship between seasonal maximum daily discharge and both concurrent and lagged season-precipitation and temperature, consistent with underlying physical processes across different basins. The Bayesian Network model effectively predicts the interannual variability in seasonal and annual peak discharges and establishes a causal link between them. The model identifies key drivers across different seasons and regions in CONUS and highlights that antecedent catchment wetness is particularly relevant for high magnitude flows, while precipitation is the dominant driver of medium flows. This study significantly expands our current knowledge on causal flood drivers and presents a novel approach to flood prediction and attribution.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144311984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How Global Atmospheric Circulation Indirectly Influences Streamflow Variations in Karst Basin Through Rainfall","authors":"Benjin Yu, Rui Li, Feiyang Cai, Zhenhong Yi, Chaoyang Xue, Wanquan Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2024wr039655","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr039655","url":null,"abstract":"Global climate change has profoundly influenced atmospheric circulation systems, with frequent heavy rainfall events crucial in determining long-term hydrological trends. However, the specific mechanisms by which atmospheric circulation regulates rainfall variability and subsequently affects river streamflow remain inconclusive, particularly in ecologically fragile and geomorphologically complex karst regions. This study examines a typical karst basin to analyze hydrological variations from 1965 to 2021 and explores the driving mechanisms of large-scale atmospheric circulation on rainfall and streamflow dynamics. The results indicate that, over the past half-century, total annual rainfall in the Shibantang Catchment has declined while extreme precipitation indices have increased. Consequently, although the long-term average discharge has decreased, the proportion of flood-season discharge has risen. Rainfall variations driven by atmospheric circulation explained 22.3%–76.9% of streamflow fluctuations. The dominant factors influencing streamflow have shifted across different historical periods: human activities had a more significant impact in the late 20th century, whereas climate change has become the primary driver in the 21st century. Furthermore, our findings reveal a strong correlation between climate change in karst regions and the contraction of the Asian polar vortex and its northward displacement. This suggests that atmospheric circulation influences streamflow evolution trends by regulating climate variability. From a global atmospheric circulation perspective, this study elucidates the hydrological variation mechanisms in heterogeneous karst basin, advances karst hydrology theory, and provides scientific support for water resource management and extreme weather adaptation.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"232 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144311750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Prediction of the Annual Variation of Groundwater Depth and Its Probability Based on MCAR Model and Copula Functions: A Case Study in Beijing, China","authors":"Yan Han, Xiaoling Zhang, Aifeng Lv, Wenbin Zhu","doi":"10.1029/2024wr038238","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr038238","url":null,"abstract":"Groundwater (GW) is the primary water source of socio-economic development in water-deficient regions, and long-term overexploitation may cause GW depletion and deterioration. In this study, after analyzing the relationship between GW level and related factors, the main influencing factors were identified from the perspective of climate change and human activity. A novel and comprehensive prediction method for GW depth was developed by combining the multivariable controlled auto-regressive model and copula functions. The capabilities of the proposed method extend beyond GW depth predictions in the plain area, as it also quantitatively assesses the probability of GW depth variation. The method was validated by using it to simulate GW depth in Beijing of China during 2019–2022, and the results indicate that the errors between simulated and observed GW depth are less than 1.5%. The Beijing's GW depth is likely to be gradually recovery with an increase in precipitation and cross-regional water diversion in the future. The probability of Beijing's GW depth reaching 7.50 m by 2035 is 0.463 under annual average precipitation, ET<sub>a</sub> and inbound runoff. This study provides an effective method to predict GW depth variation and its probability in plain areas, and it also offers valuable insight for the protection and sustainable development of regional GW resources.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144311751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
H. Shi, M. E. Negretti, J. Chauchat, K. Blanckaert, U. Lemmin, D. A. Barry
{"title":"Buoyancy-Tilted Shear Layers and Coherent Structures in Hyperpycnal River Plume Plunging","authors":"H. Shi, M. E. Negretti, J. Chauchat, K. Blanckaert, U. Lemmin, D. A. Barry","doi":"10.1029/2024wr039696","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr039696","url":null,"abstract":"Shear layers and corresponding Kelvin Helmholtz-type Coherent Structures (KHCS) can be generated by rivers discharging into laterally-unconfined quiescent open water bodies (e.g., lakes). When the river discharge has a greater density than the receiving water due to temperature and/or suspended sediment, both the shear layers and KHCS will be influenced by the negative buoyancy of the plume and thus become highly three-dimensional (3D). The present study uses a turbulence-resolving Computational Fluid Dynamics model based on Large Eddy Simulation to simulate the nearshore flow fields of a hyperpycnal river plume entering an unconfined quiescent ambient. Shear layers are observed at both sides of the plume and their growth is suppressed by negative buoyancy arising from the greater density of the river plume. The plume-ambient interface is tilted by the negative buoyancy and is transformed into a curved face. As a result, the shear layer is also tilted and shear-induced vorticity progressively changes its direction from vertical near the water surface to transversal near the bottom. Tilted along with the shear layers, KHCS present unique 3D subsurface structures and create strongly mixed and curved “coherent structure regions” in transects. Quadrant analysis shows that the “Ejection” and “Sweep” events associated with KHCS dominate the local mass and momentum exchange between the plume and ambient water. At the plume-ambient interface, the KHCS generate near-periodic velocity fluctuations whose non-dimensionalized frequency (Strouhal number) decreases with increasing local Richardson number.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144312102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}