Water Resources Research最新文献

Groundwater Responses to Deluge and Drought in the Fraser Valley, Pacific Northwest

IF 5.4 1区地球科学

Water Resources Research Pub Date : 2024-12-17 DOI: 10.1029/2023wr036769

A. H. Nott, D. M. Allen, W. J. Hahm

{"title":"Groundwater Responses to Deluge and Drought in the Fraser Valley, Pacific Northwest","authors":"A. H. Nott, D. M. Allen, W. J. Hahm","doi":"10.1029/2023wr036769","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036769","url":null,"abstract":"Groundwater level variations represent signals of superimposed physical processes, with memory. Groundwater level records are used to understand how aquifer systems respond to natural and anthropogenic perturbations. Here we analyze groundwater levels across the South Coast of British Columbia (BC) in the Pacific Northwest with the objective of determining groundwater responses to atmospheric rivers (ARs) and drought. An AR catalog was derived and used to associate precipitation amounts to AR occurrence. Droughts were quantified using dry day metrics, in conjunction with the standardized precipitation index. Historically (1980–2023), from September to January, approximately 40% of total precipitation was contributed by ARs. From April to September, more than 50% of days received no precipitation, with typically 26 consecutive dry days. We used the autocorrelation structure of groundwater levels, commonly used to characterize aquifer memory, to identify two distinct clusters of observation well responses. Cluster 1 wells respond to recharge from local precipitation, primarily rainfall, and respond rapidly to both ARs during winter recharge and significant rainfall deficits during summer. Cluster 2 wells are driven by local precipitation but are influenced by the Fraser River's large summer freshet which briefly recharges the aquifers, thereby delaying drought propagation. The results suggest that groundwater memory encapsulates multiple hydrogeological factors, including boundary conditions, influencing the response outcome to extreme events.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"157 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142832913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Synergizing Intuitive Physics and Big Data in Deep Learning: Can We Obtain Process Insights While Maintaining State-Of-The-Art Hydrological Prediction Capability?

IF 5.4 1区地球科学

Water Resources Research Pub Date : 2024-12-14 DOI: 10.1029/2024wr037582

Leilei He, Liangsheng Shi, Wenxiang Song, Jiawen Shen, Lijun Wang, Xiaolong Hu, Yuanyuan Zha

{"title":"Synergizing Intuitive Physics and Big Data in Deep Learning: Can We Obtain Process Insights While Maintaining State-Of-The-Art Hydrological Prediction Capability?","authors":"Leilei He, Liangsheng Shi, Wenxiang Song, Jiawen Shen, Lijun Wang, Xiaolong Hu, Yuanyuan Zha","doi":"10.1029/2024wr037582","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr037582","url":null,"abstract":"Artificial intelligence (AI) methods have created insurmountable performance in prediction tasks for geoscientific problems yet are unable to derive process insights and answer specific scientific questions. The geoscience community faces a dilemma of reconciling process comprehension with high predictive accuracy. Here we introduce a deep process learning (DPL) approach empowering neural networks to deduce intrinsic processes from observable data, wherein the intuitive physics of geosystems is directly coupled within the deep learning (DL) architecture as structural prior. We aim to incorporate as raw common concepts as possible as macroscopic guidance: on the one hand, to reduce interference with DL's data adaptability. On the other hand, to allow the information flow of the model to converge along specific paths toward the target output, thus enabling the potential to gain process insights with limited supervision. Illustrating its application to precipitation-runoff modeling across the USA, DPL yields an ensemble median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.758 and Kling-Gupta efficiency of 0.778 with robust transferability, compared to 0.762 and 0.751 for the state-of-the-art DL model. The good match between internal representations of DPL and independent data sets of snow water equivalent and evapotranspiration, along with its superior capability for catchment water budget closures, demonstrates proficient process mastery. The study also highlights beneficial synergies from large-scale data collaboration, promoting the organic unity of process understanding and predictive performance. This work shows a promising avenue for learning processes from big data and will benefit geoscientific domains that remain concerned with process clarity in the era of AI.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142821004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Turbulence and Bedload Transport in Submerged Vegetation Canopies

IF 5.4 1区地球科学

Water Resources Research Pub Date : 2024-12-13 DOI: 10.1029/2024wr037694

Tian Zhao, Heidi Nepf

引用次数: 0

Hydrodynamics of In-Stream Leaky Barriers for Natural Flood Management

IF 5.4 1区地球科学

Water Resources Research Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1029/2024wr038117

Fawaz Alzabari, Catherine A. M. E. Wilson, Pablo Ouro

{"title":"Hydrodynamics of In-Stream Leaky Barriers for Natural Flood Management","authors":"Fawaz Alzabari, Catherine A. M. E. Wilson, Pablo Ouro","doi":"10.1029/2024wr038117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr038117","url":null,"abstract":"Leaky barriers are in-stream natural flood management solutions designed for peak flow attenuation, whose effectiveness is dependent on their design. Flow around leaky barriers (LB) composed of three cylindrical logs were investigated using large-eddy simulation. The main LB configuration considered vertically aligned logs, with other layouts inclined at 15<math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00431397:media:wrcr27598:wrcr27598-math-0001\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/wrcr27598-math-0001.png\">\u0000<semantics>\u0000<mrow>\u0000<mo>°</mo>\u0000</mrow>\u0000${}^{circ}$</annotation>\u0000</semantics></math>, 30<math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00431397:media:wrcr27598:wrcr27598-math-0002\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/wrcr27598-math-0002.png\">\u0000<semantics>\u0000<mrow>\u0000<mo>°</mo>\u0000</mrow>\u0000${}^{circ}$</annotation>\u0000</semantics></math>, and 45<math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00431397:media:wrcr27598:wrcr27598-math-0003\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/wrcr27598-math-0003.png\">\u0000<semantics>\u0000<mrow>\u0000<mo>°</mo>\u0000</mrow>\u0000${}^{circ}$</annotation>\u0000</semantics></math> in the upstream and downstream directions. Results reveal that the frontal projected blockage area of the LB leads to an increase in the upstream flow depth, with momentum being redirected toward the bottom gap, creating a primary wall-jet, whose peak velocity and coherence varied depending on LB design, however, attained a similar decay downstream. The porous LBs allowed for distinct internal flow paths that generated secondary jets, either diverting momentum upwards or downwards depending on the direction of the barrier inclination, impacting main flow features and turbulent characteristics. Turbulent kinetic energy and vertical Reynolds shear stress decreased when the barrier was inclined downstream. In the upstream inclination cases, these showed no significant variation, with magnitudes similar to those in the vertical configuration. Bed shear stress decreased with increasing barrier angle, reducing the risk of local scour and sediment mobilization. The vertical LB achieves the maximum backwater rise at the expense of promoting larger sediment bed mobilization. Structural loads on the logs vary with LB inclination, with drag forces decreasing as barrier angles increase. Hydrodynamic findings, evaluated through five design criteria, show that upstream-inclined designs, particularly with large barrier angles, exhibit improved relative performance compared to other designs.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"111 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142810106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Novel Framework for Heterogeneity Decomposition and Mechanism Inference in Spatiotemporal Evolution of Groundwater Storage: Case Study in the North China Plain

IF 5.4 1区地球科学

Water Resources Research Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1029/2023wr036102

Xiaowei Zhao, Ying Yu, Jianmei Cheng, Kuiyuan Ding, Yiming Luo, Kun Zheng, Yang Xian, Yihang Lin

{"title":"A Novel Framework for Heterogeneity Decomposition and Mechanism Inference in Spatiotemporal Evolution of Groundwater Storage: Case Study in the North China Plain","authors":"Xiaowei Zhao, Ying Yu, Jianmei Cheng, Kuiyuan Ding, Yiming Luo, Kun Zheng, Yang Xian, Yihang Lin","doi":"10.1029/2023wr036102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036102","url":null,"abstract":"Properly understanding the evolution mechanisms of groundwater storage anomaly (GWSA) is the basis of making effective groundwater management strategies. However, current analysis methods cannot objectively capture the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of GWSA, which might lead to erroneous inferences of the evolution mechanisms. Here, we developed a new framework to address the challenge of spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the GWSA evolution analysis. It is achieved by integrating the Bayesian Estimator of Abrupt change, Seasonal change, and Trend (BEAST), the Balanced Iterative Reducing and Clustering using Hierarchies (BIRCH), and the Optimal Parameters-based Geographical Detector (OPGD). In the case study of the North China Plain (NCP), the GWSA time series is divided into four stages by three trend change points in BEAST. An increasing trend of GWSA is observed at Stage IV, and the third trend change point occurs before the third seasonal change point. This distinguishes the positive feedback of anthropogenic interventions and the effects of seasonal precipitations for the first time. Moreover, the spatial distribution of GWSA in the NCP is classified into two clusters by BIRCH in each stage. The differences in GWSA trends and responses to environmental changes between Cluster-1 and Cluster-2 are significant. Then the driving effects of 16 factors on the evolution of GWSA are identified using OPGD, in which the contributions of topographic and aquifer characteristics are highlighted by quantitative analysis. This framework provides a novel method for examining the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of GWSA, which can be extended to analyze spatiotemporal trends in GWSA at diverse scales.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"82 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142816382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Comparing Global Violations of Environmentally Critical Groundwater Discharge Thresholds

IF 5.4 1区地球科学

Water Resources Research Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1029/2024wr037519

B. P. P. Marinelli, C. Mohan, T. Gleeson, F. Ludwig, I. E. M. de Graaf

{"title":"Comparing Global Violations of Environmentally Critical Groundwater Discharge Thresholds","authors":"B. P. P. Marinelli, C. Mohan, T. Gleeson, F. Ludwig, I. E. M. de Graaf","doi":"10.1029/2024wr037519","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr037519","url":null,"abstract":"Groundwater is a crucial resource to support surface water bodies via groundwater discharge. In this study, we applied two methods of estimating global environmentally critical groundwater discharge, defined as the flux of groundwater to streamflow necessary to maintain a healthy environment, from 1960 to 2010: the Presumptive Standard stipulates that a standard proportion of groundwater discharge should be maintained at all timesteps, while the Q* is a low-flow index that focuses on critical periods. We calculated these critical flow thresholds using simulated natural groundwater discharge, and estimated violations of the thresholds when human-impacted groundwater discharge dropped too low. Our global assessment of the frequency and severity of violations over all timesteps in our study period showed that the Presumptive Standard estimated more frequent and severe violations than the Q*, but that the spatial patterns were similar for both methods. During low-flow periods, when the relative importance of groundwater to support streamflow is greatest, both methods estimated similar magnitudes of violation frequency and severity. We further compared our results to a method of estimating environmentally critical streamflow, Variable Monthly Flow, which does not explicitly consider groundwater. From the differences in violation frequency between these groundwater-centric and surface water-centric methods, we evaluated the influence of including groundwater contributions to streamflow in environmental flow assessments. Our results show that including groundwater in such assessments is particularly important for regions with high groundwater demands in the drier climates of the world, while it is less important for regions with low groundwater demands and more humid climates.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142816280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mining and Climate Change Alters Water Storage and Streamflow Dynamics of Northern Peatland-Dominated Catchments 采矿和气候变化改变了北部泥炭地为主的集水区的蓄水和水流动态

IF 5.4 1区地球科学

Water Resources Research Pub Date : 2024-12-10 DOI: 10.1029/2024wr037310

O. F. Sutton, N. E. Balliston, J. S. Price

{"title":"Mining and Climate Change Alters Water Storage and Streamflow Dynamics of Northern Peatland-Dominated Catchments","authors":"O. F. Sutton, N. E. Balliston, J. S. Price","doi":"10.1029/2024wr037310","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr037310","url":null,"abstract":"The Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) of northern Ontario, a globally significant carbon store, are characterized by expansive peatland complexes of patterned bogs and fens, which play a vital role in regional water regulation. These peatlands are threatened by disturbance from large-scale resource extraction and projected climate change, both of which have the potential to compromise their ecohydrological function. Field measurements and numerical modeling were used to investigate the hydrological responses of peatlands and downgradient streamflow as a consequence of disturbance from mining and shifts in climate, individually and in combination. Mine dewatering reduced groundwater storage by as much as 150 mm, equivalent to a water table lowering of 75 cm, thereby decreasing annual streamflow by 66% in impacted tributaries. Although the projected increases to precipitation and evapotranspiration due to climate change were approximately balanced, resulting in minor changes to storage, there were pronounced shifts in the temporal patterns of streamflow, with a diminished snowmelt and spring freshet occurring a month earlier. When considering the cumulative impacts of climate change coupled with mining, a potential shift in peatland ecohydrology toward new equilibria is plausible, implying altered water movement across the landscape and compromised ecosystem function. This study emphasizes the critical need for further monitoring and modeling efforts to characterize the thresholds and mechanisms driving these ecohydrological changes. This research will guide future investigations on the implications of disturbance on local and regional hydrologic connectivity and facilitate the protection of peatland ecosystems in the HBL and other northern peatland-dominated landscapes.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"117 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142797827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Péclet-Number-Dependent Longitudinal Dispersion in Discrete Fracture Networks

IF 5.4 1区地球科学

Water Resources Research Pub Date : 2024-12-10 DOI: 10.1029/2024wr038437

Tingchang Yin, Teng Man, Pei Zhang, Sergio Andres Galindo-Torres

{"title":"Péclet-Number-Dependent Longitudinal Dispersion in Discrete Fracture Networks","authors":"Tingchang Yin, Teng Man, Pei Zhang, Sergio Andres Galindo-Torres","doi":"10.1029/2024wr038437","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr038437","url":null,"abstract":"Dispersion in fractured media impacts many environmental and geomechanical practices. It is mainly controlled by the structure of fracture networks and the Péclet number <mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\"684\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\"1\" jax=\"CHTML\" role=\"application\" sre-explorer- style=\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\" tabindex=\"0\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\"true\" location=\"graphic/wrcr27609-math-0001.png\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow data-semantic-children=\"4\" data-semantic-content=\"0,5\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\"leftright\" data-semantic-speech=\"left parenthesis upper P e right parenthesis\" data-semantic-type=\"fenced\"><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\"fenced\" data-semantic-parent=\"6\" data-semantic-role=\"open\" data-semantic-type=\"fence\" style=\"margin-left: 0.056em; margin-right: 0.056em;\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mrow data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple;clearspeak:unit\" data-semantic-children=\"1,2\" data-semantic-content=\"3\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"6\" data-semantic-role=\"implicit\" data-semantic-type=\"infixop\"><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"italic\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi><mjx-mo data-semantic-added=\"true\" data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\"infixop,⁢\" data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"multiplication\" data-semantic-type=\"operator\" style=\"margin-left: 0.056em; margin-right: 0.056em;\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"italic\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi></mjx-mrow><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\"fenced\" data-semantic-parent=\"6\" data-semantic-role=\"close\" data-semantic-type=\"fence\" style=\"margin-left: 0.056em; margin-right: 0.056em;\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display=\"inline\" unselectable=\"on\"><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00431397:media:wrcr27609:wrcr27609-math-0001\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/wrcr27609-math-0001.png\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"><semantics><mrow data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-children=\"4\" data-semantic-content=\"0,5\" data-semantic-role=\"leftright\" data-semantic-speech=\"left parenthesis upper P e right parenthesis\" data-semantic-type=\"fenced\"><mo data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-operator=\"fenced\" data-semantic-parent=\"6\" data-semantic-role=\"open\" data-semantic-type=\"fence\" stretchy=\"false\">(</mo><mrow data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple;clearspeak:unit\" data-semantic-children=\"1,2\" data-semantic-content=\"3\" data-semantic-parent=\"6\" data-semantic-role=\"implicit\" data-semantic-type=\"infixop\"><mi data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semant","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"49 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142797826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Revegetation Impacts on Moisture Recycling and Precipitation Trends in the Chinese Loess Plateau

IF 5.4 1区地球科学

Water Resources Research Pub Date : 2024-12-09 DOI: 10.1029/2024wr038199

Mingzhu Cao, Weiguang Wang, Jia Wei, Giovanni Forzieri, Ingo Fetzer, Lan Wang-Erlandsson

{"title":"Revegetation Impacts on Moisture Recycling and Precipitation Trends in the Chinese Loess Plateau","authors":"Mingzhu Cao, Weiguang Wang, Jia Wei, Giovanni Forzieri, Ingo Fetzer, Lan Wang-Erlandsson","doi":"10.1029/2024wr038199","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr038199","url":null,"abstract":"The Loess Plateau in China has experienced a remarkable greening trend due to vegetation restoration efforts in recent decades. However, the response of precipitation to this greening remains uncertain. In this study, we identified and evaluated the main moisture source regions for precipitation over the Loess Plateau from 1982 to 2019 using a moisture tracking model, the modified WAM-2layers model, and the conceptual framework of the precipitationshed. By integrating multiple linear regression analysis with a conceptual hydrologically weighting method, we quantified the effective influence of different environmental factors for precipitation, particularly the effect of vegetation. Our analysis revealed that local precipitation has increased on average by 0.16 mm yr−1 and evaporation by 5.17 mm yr−1 over the period 2000–2019 after the initiation of the vegetation restoration project. Regional greening including the Loess Plateau contributed to precipitation for about 0.83 mm yr−1, among which local greening contributed for about 0.07 mm yr−1. Local vegetation contribution is due to both an enhanced local evaporation as well as an increased local moisture recycling (6.9% in 1982–1999; 8.3% in 2000–2019). Thus, our study shows that local revegetation had a positive effect on local precipitation, and the primary cause of the observed increase in precipitation over the Loess Plateau is due to a combination of local greening and circulation change. Our study underscores that increasing vegetation over the Loess Plateau has exerted strong influence on local precipitation and supports the positive effects for current and future vegetation restoration plans toward more resilient water resources managements.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142797825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Estimation of Small Failure Probability in High-Dimensional Groundwater Contaminant Transport Modeling Using Subset Simulation Coupled With Preconditioned Crank-Nicolson MCMC

IF 5.4 1区地球科学

Water Resources Research Pub Date : 2024-12-09 DOI: 10.1029/2024wr038260

Teng Xu, Shiqiang Zhang, Chunhui Lu, Jiangjiang Zhang, Yu Ye

{"title":"Estimation of Small Failure Probability in High-Dimensional Groundwater Contaminant Transport Modeling Using Subset Simulation Coupled With Preconditioned Crank-Nicolson MCMC","authors":"Teng Xu, Shiqiang Zhang, Chunhui Lu, Jiangjiang Zhang, Yu Ye","doi":"10.1029/2024wr038260","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr038260","url":null,"abstract":"The accurate prediction of groundwater contamination is challenging due to uncertainties arising from the inherent heterogeneity of aquifers, inadequate site characterization, and limitations in conceptual mathematical models. These factors can result in an underestimation of contaminant concentrations. For effective contaminant prevention and control, it is important to estimate the probability of exceeding the allowed threshold for contaminant concentrations, known as the failure probability of groundwater contamination. Computing small failure probabilities using classical Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) requires computing a large number of samplers to converge to a stationary target value, which is time-consuming. To address this, in this paper, we develop a novel approach for calculating small failure probabilities, known as subset simulation (SS) coupled with preconditioned Crank-Nicolson Markov chain Monte Carlo (pCN-SS), which combines subset simulation with preconditioned Crank-Nicolson Markov chain Monte Carlo (pCN-MCMC) to promote computational efficiency. We have tested the performance of the proposed algorithm in both a mathematical example and a numerical case study of groundwater contamination. The results demonstrate that pCN-SS provides improved accuracy and efficiency for evaluating small failure probabilities for high-dimensional groundwater contamination, specifically for hydraulic conductivity as a source of uncertainty. Compared to classical MCS and traditional SS, pCN-SS requires fewer model evaluations but produces stable and accurate results.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142797823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0