University of Southern California Center for Law & Social Science (CLASS) Research Paper Series最新文献

{"title":"Belief Heterogeneity and Risk Amplification","authors":"Theofanis Papamichalis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3932647","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3932647","url":null,"abstract":"Do heterogeneous beliefs amplify systemic shocks? I set out a tractable model that incorporates heterogeneous beliefs and assesses their interaction with endogenous risk. Incomplete information often leads investors to form heterogeneous beliefs when they optimize their portfolios; optimists consider their expected productivity growth to be higher than pessimists. My results suggest that, when optimists are associated with the more productive part of the economy, belief heterogeneity increases asset prices, investment and leverage, reducing the expected duration of upcoming recessions substantially. However, it exacerbates risk amplification, significantly more than what standard models predict, contributing to a deeper understanding of what drives excess volatility.","PeriodicalId":222637,"journal":{"name":"University of Southern California Center for Law & Social Science (CLASS) Research Paper Series","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125931355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Relationship between Power Energy Consumption, FDI and Economic Growth: A Case Study of Pakistan","authors":"S. Hussain, Chunjiao Yu","doi":"10.37421/2162-6359.2021.10.599","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37421/2162-6359.2021.10.599","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the causal relationship between power energy consumption, FDI and Economic growth in Pakistan using time series data from 1965 to 2019. Johansen co-integration test is employed for finding out relationship and Granger causality test is used to find the direction of causality amongst the variables used. The results Granger test of causality finds unidirectional causality from FDI to GDP growth, a unidirectional causality relationship running from GDP growth toward power energy consumption and from foreign direct investment toward economic growth. Foreign Direct Investment has positive impact on the economic growth and economic growth stimulate energy consumption, so indirectly energy consumption is enhanced with the expansion of FDI, hence the government should pay full attentions to the security of foreign investors and enhance the energy production in order to enhance the economic growth of Pakistan.","PeriodicalId":222637,"journal":{"name":"University of Southern California Center for Law & Social Science (CLASS) Research Paper Series","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127163138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Influence of P2P Lending Startup Business Development Pt. Modalku for UMKM Players","authors":"Ma'ruf Irhas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3827334","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3827334","url":null,"abstract":"PT Modalku is a financial technology (startup) company engaged in peer to peer lending and based in DKI Jakarta, Indonesia. Modalku is the largest online platform in Indonesia that connects “feasible but not creditworthy” Micro , Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) requiring business capital loans with lenders looking for affordable and attractive investment alternatives. Modalku provides a completely online registration process. Prospective borrowers are asked to fill in complete biodata, business information, the desired loan amount, as well as a number of documents and financial reports.","PeriodicalId":222637,"journal":{"name":"University of Southern California Center for Law & Social Science (CLASS) Research Paper Series","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127122994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Human Capital, Technology, and Economic Growth: A Case Study of Indonesia","authors":"Suryaning Bawono","doi":"10.13106/JAFEB.2021.VOL8.NO5.0029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13106/JAFEB.2021.VOL8.NO5.0029","url":null,"abstract":"This study discusses the effect of human capital and technology on economic growth in Indonesia using annual time series data over the 35-year research period (1984–2019). This study uses an autoregressive distribution gap to the cointegration approach to understanding the relationship between human capital, technology, and economic growth. Human capital is inherent in humans and becomes capital in providing the best performance that has an impact on their own income. We use the human capital framework in this study where education is one mechanism to increase human capital. Based on the results of our estimation, we find that the increase in human capital using the education mechanism affects economic growth. This shows the role of human capital investment is very important in economic growth. Technology shows a significant positive effect on economic growth. Increasing human resources and technology are important factors in efforts to increase economic growth in Indonesia. Educational development is the key to the success of increasing human capital and technological development because education plays a role in improving the quality of human resources. Increasing human resources here is in the form of increased knowledge, mastery of technology, innovation, and the ability to develop technology to encourage technology development.","PeriodicalId":222637,"journal":{"name":"University of Southern California Center for Law & Social Science (CLASS) Research Paper Series","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130094391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth in Uganda (1990–2019)","authors":"Mukail Adam","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3814184","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3814184","url":null,"abstract":"The study was based on Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth in Uganda using cointegration approach. The researcher used statistical software of Eviews 11 student version for the analysis of the macroeconomic variables affecting Uganda’s economic growth. The main objective of this study was to examine the major macroeconomic determinants of economic growth in Uganda between the periods 1990 and 2019 applying the Johansen method of cointegration. All the variables are integrated at first order except real effective exchange rate as a result the Johansen's cointegration approach was used. The study found out that foreign direct investment (% of GDP), inflation (consumer prices) and real interest rate had a positive effect on growth in real gross domestic product per capita while real effective exchange rate has a negative effect on per capita growth in gross domestic product. In the long run, real effective exchange rate and real interest rate are the significant determinants of growth in real gross domestic product per capita in Uganda. In the short run, inflation (consumer prices) and real interest rate turned to be statistically significant determinants of growth in real gross domestic product per capita. Based on the findings, the following policy recommendations are made:<br><br>The Bank of Uganda should make use of monetary policy to stimulate the economy through increased aggregate demand due to the positive relationship between inflation and gross domestic product per capita growth. Since there is a positive relationship between FDI and gross domestic product per capita growth, it is therefore recommendable that the government of Uganda continues to attract more international capital inflow through trade liberalization if it is to achieve its growth target of 8 percent growth rate per annum. However the most important policy implication from the findings of negative relationship between economic growth and exchange rate indicates that there is a need for exchange rate policy framework that compliments the existing inflation targeting regime in Uganda. Instead of completely liberalizing the exchange rate in the framework of inflation targeting strategy adopted, policymakers in Uganda have to prevent the upside movements in the exchange rate by taking into consideration its negative effect on economic growth.","PeriodicalId":222637,"journal":{"name":"University of Southern California Center for Law & Social Science (CLASS) Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129152920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Accounting History of Credit Money","authors":"Maxime Izoulet","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3803766","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3803766","url":null,"abstract":"This article seeks to demonstrate that the invention of double-entry accounting, during the 13th and 14th centuries in the cities of northern Italy, was at the origin of the emergence of our monetary system: the credit money system. By showing the limits of the monetary histories that currently exist, this article shows that these limits are the consequence of a theoretical unthought: that of the different dimensions of money. It then shows that this problem is particularly well defined by double-entry accounting, which explains its decisive historical importance for the history of money.","PeriodicalId":222637,"journal":{"name":"University of Southern California Center for Law & Social Science (CLASS) Research Paper Series","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130721324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How to Maintain the Economy Growth of Aktobe Which Will Not Affect the Health of Citizens?","authors":"Turezhan Kuanov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3800845","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3800845","url":null,"abstract":"The paper investigates the problem of ecology in Aktobe and its main goal is to find out about new ways in the economy of the city to stop this issue. On June 12, 2015, the concentration of hydrogen sulfide in the air of Aktobe exceeded the maximum permissible concentration by 10.6 times. The data was gathered from both internet resources and interviews. According to the results of the interview, Aktobe citizens are displeased with the general statement of the city from the point of view of ecology. The paper seeks to find out the solution for deteriorating condition of the city.","PeriodicalId":222637,"journal":{"name":"University of Southern California Center for Law & Social Science (CLASS) Research Paper Series","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130657400","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Residential and Industrial Energy Efficiency Improvements: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of the Rebound Effect","authors":"X. Pautrel, Sondès Kahouli","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3738350","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3738350","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper is to investigate bi-directional spillovers into residential and industrial sectors induced by energy efficiency improvement (EEI) in both the short- and long-term, and the impact of nesting structure as well as the size of elasticities of substitution of production and utility functions on the magnitude and the transitional dynamic of rebound effect. \u0000 \u0000Developing a dynamic general equilibrium model, we demonstrate that residential EEIs spillovers into the industrial sector through the labor supply channel and industrial EEIs spill-overs into the residential sector through the conventional income channel. Numerical simulations calibrated on the U.S. suggest that not taking into account these spillover effects could lead to mis-estimate the rebound effect especially of residential sector EEIs. We also demonstrate how the size and the duration of the rebound effect depend on the value of elasticities of substitution. Especially, the elasticity of substitution between energy and non-energy consumption in household utility and the elasticity of substitution between physical capital and labor in production play a major role. Numerical simulations suggest that alternative sets of value for the elasticities of substitution may give sizable different patterns of rebound effects in both the short- and long-term. \u0000 \u0000In policy terms, our results suggest that energy efficiency policies should be implemented simul- taneously with rebound effect offsetting policies by considering short- and long-term wide-economy feedbacks. As a consequence, they recall for considering debates about what type of policy path- ways is more effective in mitigating the rebound effect.","PeriodicalId":222637,"journal":{"name":"University of Southern California Center for Law & Social Science (CLASS) Research Paper Series","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117067206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Government Size and Corruption: A Non-Linear Analysis in the Case of EMCCA (Taille De l’Etat Et Corruption: Une Analyse Non Linéaire Au Cas De La CEMAC)","authors":"Assoumou Ondo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3584134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3584134","url":null,"abstract":"<b>English abstract:</b> This article analyzes the relationship between state size and corruption. Unlike the works in the way which supposes a linear link between the two variables, we estimate a panel of changing regimes to characterize the impact of the size of the Central Government on corruption, in the countries of the Economic Monetary and Community of Central Africa (EMCCA). The results obtained exist a non-linear relationship between these two variables. Indeed, a strong involvement of the State in economic activity results in a significant increase in corruption when the State exceeds a size of 13.5508% of the GDP.<br><br><b>French abstract:</b> Cet article analyse la relation entre taille de l’Etat et la corruption. A la différence des travaux en la manière qui supposent un lien linéaire entre les deux variables, nous estimons un panel à changement des régimes pour caractériser l’impact de la taille de l’Etat Central sur la corruption, dans les pays de la communauté économique et monétaire de l’Afrique Centrale (CEMAC). Les résultats montrent qu’il existe une relation non linéaire entre ces deux variables. En effet, une forte implication de l’Etat dans l’activité économique se traduit par une hausse significative de corruption lorsque l’Etat dépasse une taille de 13.5508% du PIB.","PeriodicalId":222637,"journal":{"name":"University of Southern California Center for Law & Social Science (CLASS) Research Paper Series","volume":"70 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116346368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the Equivalence Between Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall in Non-Concave Optimization","authors":"A. Chen, M. Stadje, Fangyuan Zhang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3533948","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3533948","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies an optimal asset allocation problem for a surplus-driven financial institution facing a Value-at-Risk (VaR) or an Expected Shortfall (ES) constraint corresponding to a non-concave optimization problem under constraints. We obtain the closed-form optimal wealth with the ES constraint as well as with the VaR constraint respectively, and explicitly calculate the optimal trading strategy for constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility functions. We find that both VaR and ES-based regulation can effectively reduce the probability of default for a surplus-driven financial institution. However, the liability holders' benefits cannot be fully protected under either VaR- or ES-based regulation. In addition, we show that the VaR and ES-based regulation can induce the same optimal portfolio choice for a surplus-driven financial institution. This differs from the conclusion drawn in Basak and Shapiro 2001 where the financial institution aims at maximizing the expected utility of the total assets, and ES provides better loss protection.","PeriodicalId":222637,"journal":{"name":"University of Southern California Center for Law & Social Science (CLASS) Research Paper Series","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128423904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}