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Does the tail show when the nose knows? Artificial intelligence outperforms human experts at predicting detection dogs finding their target through tail kinematics. 当鼻子知道的时候,尾巴会露出来吗?人工智能在预测探测犬通过尾巴运动学找到目标方面优于人类专家。
IF 2.9 3区 综合性期刊
Royal Society Open Science Pub Date : 2025-08-13 eCollection Date: 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.250399
George Martvel, Giulia Pedretti, Teddy Lazebnik, Anna Zamansky, Yuri Ouchi, Tiago Monteiro, Nareed Farhat, Ilan Shimshoni, Yuval Michaeli, Paola Valsecchi, Nathaniel Hall, Sarah Marshall-Pescini, Dan Grinstein
{"title":"Does the tail show when the nose knows? Artificial intelligence outperforms human experts at predicting detection dogs finding their target through tail kinematics.","authors":"George Martvel, Giulia Pedretti, Teddy Lazebnik, Anna Zamansky, Yuri Ouchi, Tiago Monteiro, Nareed Farhat, Ilan Shimshoni, Yuval Michaeli, Paola Valsecchi, Nathaniel Hall, Sarah Marshall-Pescini, Dan Grinstein","doi":"10.1098/rsos.250399","DOIUrl":"10.1098/rsos.250399","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Detection dogs are utilized for searching and alerting to various substances due to their olfactory abilities. Dog trainers report being able to 'predict' such identification based on subtle behavioural changes, such as tail movement. This study investigated tail kinematic patterns of dogs during a detection task, using computer vision to detect tail movement. Eight dogs searched for a target odour on a search wall, alerting to its presence by standing still. Dogs' detection accuracy against a distractor odour was 100% with trained concentration, while during threshold assessment, it progressively reached 50%. In the target odour area, dogs exhibited a higher left-sided tail-wagging amplitude. An artificial intelligence (AI) model showed a 77% accuracy score in the classification, and, in line with the dogs' performance, progressively decreased at lower odour concentrations. Additionally, we compared the performance of an AI classification model to that of 190 detection dog handlers in determining when a dog was in the vicinity of a target odour. The AI model outperformed dog professionals, correctly classifying 66% against 46% of videos. These findings indicate the potential of AI-enhanced techniques to reveal new insights into dogs' behavioural repertoire during odour discrimination.</p>","PeriodicalId":21525,"journal":{"name":"Royal Society Open Science","volume":"12 8","pages":"250399"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12344452/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144848599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The generic Markov cohomological Hall algebra is not spherically generated. 一般的马尔可夫上同调霍尔代数不是球上生成的。
IF 2.9 3区 综合性期刊
Royal Society Open Science Pub Date : 2025-08-13 eCollection Date: 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.250282
Ben Davison
{"title":"The generic Markov cohomological Hall algebra is not spherically generated.","authors":"Ben Davison","doi":"10.1098/rsos.250282","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.250282","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Let <math><mi>Q</mi></math> be the Markov quiver, and let <math><mi>W</mi></math> be an infinitely mutable potential for <math><mi>Q</mi></math> . We calculate some low-degree refined Bogomol'nyi-Prasad-Sommerfield (BPS) invariants for the resulting Jacobi algebra and use them to show that the critical cohomological Hall algebra <math><msub><mi>H</mi> <mrow><mi>Q</mi> <mo>,</mo> <mi>W</mi></mrow> </msub> </math> is not necessarily spherically generated and is not independent of the choice of infinitely mutable potential <math><mi>W</mi></math> . This leads to a counterexample to a conjecture of Gaiotto <i>et al</i>. (Gaiotto <i>et al</i>. 2024 Categories of line defects and cohomological Hall algebras. <i>arXiv</i>. §2.1), but also suggestions for how to modify it. In the case of generic cubic <math><mi>W</mi></math> , we discuss a way to modify the conjecture by excluding the non-spherical part via the decomposition of <math><msub><mi>H</mi> <mrow><mi>Q</mi> <mo>,</mo> <mi>W</mi></mrow> </msub> </math> according to the characters of a discrete symmetry group.</p>","PeriodicalId":21525,"journal":{"name":"Royal Society Open Science","volume":"12 8","pages":"250282"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12345600/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144848605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can the nutritional geometric framework unveil how macronutrients in pollen shape solitary bee foraging and survival? 营养几何框架能否揭示花粉中的大量营养物质如何影响独居蜜蜂的觅食和生存?
IF 2.9 3区 综合性期刊
Royal Society Open Science Pub Date : 2025-08-13 eCollection Date: 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.251093
Jaya Sravanthi Mokkapati, Natalie Boyle, Pierre Ouvrard, Adrien Sicard, Christina M Grozinger
{"title":"Can the nutritional geometric framework unveil how macronutrients in pollen shape solitary bee foraging and survival?","authors":"Jaya Sravanthi Mokkapati, Natalie Boyle, Pierre Ouvrard, Adrien Sicard, Christina M Grozinger","doi":"10.1098/rsos.251093","DOIUrl":"10.1098/rsos.251093","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The nutritional geometric framework (NGF) hypothesizes that animals forage to achieve specific macronutrient ratios. Pollen, the primary source of protein and lipids for bees, varies in nutritional content across plant species. Studies suggest some bumblebee species forage based on species-specific macronutrient preferences, regardless of floral traits. Here, we examine whether females of the solitary bee species, <i>Megachile rotundata</i>, also follow the NGF when foraging. In a semi-field experiment using <i>Capsella</i> recombinant inbred plant lines with varying pollen protein-to-lipid (P : L) ratios, <i>M. rotundata</i> visits were positively associated with pollen protein content. In a laboratory-based study using synthetic diets with varying P : L ratios, female <i>M. rotundata</i> consumed the most and survived longest on diets with intermediate P : L ratios (5 : 1 and 10 : 1). Paired-choice experiments further revealed that bees regulated nutrient intake, converging on an average intake of 6.6 : 1 ± 1.6 P : L. These results suggest that <i>M. rotundata</i> exhibits a clear macronutrient preference and regulation behaviour, optimizing nutrient intake consistent with a functional nutritional target. Understanding how macronutrients influence foraging preferences and health outcomes in diverse bee species is crucial for understanding how plant-pollinator networks evolved and creating habitats beneficial for diverse pollinators.</p>","PeriodicalId":21525,"journal":{"name":"Royal Society Open Science","volume":"12 8","pages":"251093"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12344284/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144848597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A causal model of human growth and its estimation using temporally sparse data. 人类成长的因果模型及其使用时间稀疏数据的估计。
IF 2.9 3区 综合性期刊
Royal Society Open Science Pub Date : 2025-08-07 eCollection Date: 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.250084
John A Bunce, Catalina I Fernández, Caissa Revilla-Minaya
{"title":"A causal model of human growth and its estimation using temporally sparse data.","authors":"John A Bunce, Catalina I Fernández, Caissa Revilla-Minaya","doi":"10.1098/rsos.250084","DOIUrl":"10.1098/rsos.250084","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Existing models of human growth provide limited insight into underlying mechanisms responsible for inter-individual and inter-population variation in children's growth trajectories. Building on general theories linking growth to metabolic rates, we develop a causal parametric model of height and weight growth incorporating a representation of human body allometry and a process-partitioned representation of ontogeny. This model permits separation of metabolic causes of growth variation, potentially influenced by nutrition and disease, from allometric factors, potentially under stronger genetic control. We estimate model parameters using a Bayesian multilevel statistical design applied to temporally dense height and weight measurements of U.S. children, and temporally sparse measurements of Indigenous Amazonian children. This facilitates a comparison of the contributions of metabolism and allometry to observed cross-cultural variation in the growth trajectories of the two populations, and permits simulation of the effects of healthcare interventions on growth. This theoretical model provides a new framework for exploring the causes of growth variation in our species, while potentially guiding the development of appropriate, and desired, healthcare interventions in societies confronting growth-related health challenges, such as malnutrition and stunting.</p>","PeriodicalId":21525,"journal":{"name":"Royal Society Open Science","volume":"12 8","pages":"250084"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12329442/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144800143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Characterization of fluid occurrence states in shale reservoirs: centrifugal-nuclear magnetic resonance experimental analysis. 页岩储层流体赋存状态表征:离心-核磁共振实验分析
IF 2.9 3区 综合性期刊
Royal Society Open Science Pub Date : 2025-08-06 eCollection Date: 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.250018
Jin Pang, Tongtong Wu, Xinan Yu, Chunxi Zhou, Haotian Chen, Jiaao Gao
{"title":"Characterization of fluid occurrence states in shale reservoirs: centrifugal-nuclear magnetic resonance experimental analysis.","authors":"Jin Pang, Tongtong Wu, Xinan Yu, Chunxi Zhou, Haotian Chen, Jiaao Gao","doi":"10.1098/rsos.250018","DOIUrl":"10.1098/rsos.250018","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The occurrence states of fluids in shale reservoirs directly influence the resource assessment of shale gas, reservoir permeability, selection of development technologies and economic benefits. Accurate analysis of fluid occurrence states is a key foundation for the efficient exploration and development of shale gas. To comprehensively elucidate the fluid distribution characteristics within shale pores, this study integrates centrifugation-nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) experiments with stepwise thermal drying and methane adsorption analyses. By examining the NMR T₂ spectra of shale samples under varying centrifugal speeds, the distinction between movable and bound fluids is established, clarifying the influence of pore structure on fluid occurrence. Quantitative relationships between pore size and adsorbed/free gas are further investigated through methane adsorption experiments. Results demonstrate that centrifugation progressively removes water from macropores and microfractures, leaving residual water mainly confined to micropores. The stepwise thermal drying method efficiently differentiates movable water, capillary-bound water and clay-bound water. Integrating NMR analysis with methane adsorption reveals a significant impact of pore size on fluid occurrence: micropores predominantly store adsorbed gas, whereas macropores mainly contain free gas. These findings provide a theoretical basis for shale gas development and furnish essential data for optimizing exploration and production techniques.</p>","PeriodicalId":21525,"journal":{"name":"Royal Society Open Science","volume":"12 8","pages":"250018"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12324888/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144795281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reusable Mg supported IRMOF-3 as a heterogeneous nanocatalyst for chemoselective reduction of biomass-based aldehydes and ketones to alcohols under mild conditions. 可重复使用的Mg负载IRMOF-3作为一种非均相纳米催化剂,用于在温和条件下将生物质醛和酮化学选择性还原为醇。
IF 2.9 3区 综合性期刊
Royal Society Open Science Pub Date : 2025-08-06 eCollection Date: 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.242257
Fatemeh Moghimpour Bijani, Ali Reza Sardarian
{"title":"Reusable Mg supported IRMOF-3 as a heterogeneous nanocatalyst for chemoselective reduction of biomass-based aldehydes and ketones to alcohols under mild conditions.","authors":"Fatemeh Moghimpour Bijani, Ali Reza Sardarian","doi":"10.1098/rsos.242257","DOIUrl":"10.1098/rsos.242257","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>A novel, durable heterogeneous magnesium-supported catalyst, IRMOF-3@Di(2-pyridyl) ketone@Mg(II) (Di(2-pyridyl) ketone: Di-2pyk), was effectively synthesized using a convenient approach and fully characterized utilizing chemo-physical analysis techniques such as powder X-ray diffraction analysis, attenuated total reflection infrared spectroscopy, field emission scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy, CHN analysis, inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy, thermogravimetric analysis and Brunauer-Emmett-Teller measurements. This metal-organic framework-based nanocatalyst displayed excellent catalytic behaviour in chemoselective hydrogenation of five biomass-based carbonyl compounds of furfural, cinnamaldehyde, levulinic acid, vanillin and citral in addition to a variety of aliphatic, aromatic, and α,β-unsaturated aldehydes and ketones at room temperature in water in the presence of sodium borohydride as a mild and safe hydrogen source reagent. The leaching and reusability experiments of this catalyst exhibited stability and reactivity after four runs.</p>","PeriodicalId":21525,"journal":{"name":"Royal Society Open Science","volume":"12 8","pages":"242257"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12326088/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144795215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Biomass distribution of sympatric mammals in a European temperate forest. 欧洲温带森林同域哺乳动物的生物量分布。
IF 2.9 3区 综合性期刊
Royal Society Open Science Pub Date : 2025-08-06 eCollection Date: 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.250472
Andro Pleskalt, Sebastião Farias, Toni Vicedo, Jose Manuel Álvarez-Martínez, José Valentín Roces-Díaz, Carlo Meloro, Soraia Pereira, Antonio Cruz, Jesús García, Pablo Gómez, María Ángel Lamillar, Elena Marsella, Manuel Jesús Varas, Elena Álvarez, Fredrik Dalerum
{"title":"Biomass distribution of sympatric mammals in a European temperate forest.","authors":"Andro Pleskalt, Sebastião Farias, Toni Vicedo, Jose Manuel Álvarez-Martínez, José Valentín Roces-Díaz, Carlo Meloro, Soraia Pereira, Antonio Cruz, Jesús García, Pablo Gómez, María Ángel Lamillar, Elena Marsella, Manuel Jesús Varas, Elena Álvarez, Fredrik Dalerum","doi":"10.1098/rsos.250472","DOIUrl":"10.1098/rsos.250472","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The distribution of biomass among trophic levels and different types of organisms is a key characteristic of ecosystems. However, such biomass distributions might exhibit large perturbations owing to human activities. We used long-term camera trap data from a temperate forest ecosystem within the Cantabrian range, northern Spain, to quantify the biomass distribution of 10 mammal species ranging in body mass from 300 g to almost 100 kg. The species are representative of three distinct orders and include trophic levels from primary to secondary consumers. The observed biomass distribution was bottom-heavy with a disproportionally low biomass of secondary consumers, in particular large-bodied predators. In addition, the ratio of plant biomass to the biomass of mammalian primary consumers was over 6000 : 1 for total above-ground-plant biomass and over 700 : 1 for plant biomass available for mammal consumption. We suggest that the observed biomass distribution both among mammals and between mammals and plants provide an example of trophic downgrading, and highlight the radical effects human activities might have on the structure of terrestrial ecosystems.</p>","PeriodicalId":21525,"journal":{"name":"Royal Society Open Science","volume":"12 8","pages":"250472"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12325915/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144795280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Experimental study on the mechanical properties and creep development of loess grouting reinforcement material. 黄土注浆加固材料力学性能及蠕变发展试验研究。
IF 2.9 3区 综合性期刊
Royal Society Open Science Pub Date : 2025-08-06 eCollection Date: 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.250330
Yuxi Guo, Yan Qin, Nengxiong Xu, Jiayu Qin, Wenjing Zhou, Hai Wang
{"title":"Experimental study on the mechanical properties and creep development of loess grouting reinforcement material.","authors":"Yuxi Guo, Yan Qin, Nengxiong Xu, Jiayu Qin, Wenjing Zhou, Hai Wang","doi":"10.1098/rsos.250330","DOIUrl":"10.1098/rsos.250330","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The focus was on studying the effects of loess-based grouting material proportioning, fractured rock mass grading, overlying load, and grouting pressure on the grouting reinforcement effect of the fractured rock mass. The results showed that when the water-to-solid ratio was controlled at 1:1.4-1:1.0, the solid phase ratio was 3:7-5:5, and the water glass content was 3-5%, the slurry properties met the requirements for grouting treatment in the goaf. Through grouting reinforcement tests, it was found that as the strength of the grouting material increased, the crushing gradation decreased, the overlying load increased, the grouting pressure increased, and the difference in mechanical properties between the grouting material and the rock block decreased. The compression failure mode shows a 'rock-like' characteristic, with cracks mainly extending along the 'rock-slurry-rock' bonding surface, followed by extending along the grouting solid body. The instantaneous strain and axial creep values first decreased and then increased during the graded loading process, and the creep rate first decreased rapidly and then stabilized. Finally, the long-term strength of the grouting reinforcement material was determined to be 2.1 MPa, accounting for 65-80% of the instantaneous strength.</p>","PeriodicalId":21525,"journal":{"name":"Royal Society Open Science","volume":"12 8","pages":"250330"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12324893/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144795210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Gyne production is regulated by the brood in a social bee (Bombus impatiens). 在群居蜜蜂(Bombus impatiens)中,Gyne的产生是由幼虫调节的。
IF 2.9 3区 综合性期刊
Royal Society Open Science Pub Date : 2025-08-06 eCollection Date: 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.241906
Etya Amsalem, Priscila K F Santos, Ella Messner, Cameron Murray
{"title":"Gyne production is regulated by the brood in a social bee (<i>Bombus impatiens</i>).","authors":"Etya Amsalem, Priscila K F Santos, Ella Messner, Cameron Murray","doi":"10.1098/rsos.241906","DOIUrl":"10.1098/rsos.241906","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Sexual production in social insects marks the peak of colony development, yet the mechanisms regulating it remain unclear. We investigated the role of brood in colony development, worker reproduction and sexual production in <i>Bombus impatiens</i>. While larvae are known to reduce worker egg laying and enhance the queen's reproductive inhibition, these effects were previously tested only in small groups. We manipulated brood size in full-sized, young colonies by doubling or removing brood and monitored development. Colonies with doubled brood produced significantly more gynes, independent of the number of workers, while reduced-brood colonies exhibited a non-significant increase in male production that was driven by colony size. Worker ovary activation was lower in double-brood colonies, with no change in aggression. A follow-up experiment directly testing the effect of colony size showed that higher worker density led to higher ovary activation in workers but did not affect sexual production. These results suggest that brood strongly influences colony development and sexual production, possibly reflecting an extended phenotype of the queen, whereas worker ovary activation appears to be a more flexible process influenced by either brood presence or colony size. Understanding brood dynamics may be key to understanding the evolution of female castes in social insects.</p>","PeriodicalId":21525,"journal":{"name":"Royal Society Open Science","volume":"12 8","pages":"241906"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12324887/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144795212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Scaling laws of political regime dynamics: stability of democracies and autocracies in the twentieth century. 政治制度动态的尺度法则:二十世纪民主与专制的稳定性。
IF 2.9 3区 综合性期刊
Royal Society Open Science Pub Date : 2025-08-06 eCollection Date: 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.250457
Paula Pirker-Diaz, Matthew C Wilson, Soenke Beier, Karoline Wiesner
{"title":"Scaling laws of political regime dynamics: stability of democracies and autocracies in the twentieth century.","authors":"Paula Pirker-Diaz, Matthew C Wilson, Soenke Beier, Karoline Wiesner","doi":"10.1098/rsos.250457","DOIUrl":"10.1098/rsos.250457","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In light of the current rise of authoritarian regimes and the anti-liberal tendencies in some established democracies, understanding the dynamic and statistical properties of political regimes is of critical importance. Despite their relevance, a comprehensive quantitative assessment of these dynamics on a historical scale remains largely unexplored, and the notion that democratization is an irreversible process has gone mostly unchallenged. This study provides a rigorous and quantitative analysis of political regimes worldwide by examining changes in freedoms of expression, association and electoral quality throughout the twentieth century. Utilizing the multidimensional V-Dem dataset, which covers over 170 countries across more than a century, alongside tools from statistical physics, we demonstrate that historical political regime dynamics follow a scaling law, which is a hallmark of diffusion. We identify three distinct dynamical regimes in the data: super-diffusive behaviour in destabilizing autocracies, random-walk dynamics in hybrid regimes and sub-diffusive behaviour in democracies and stable autocracies. Using these results, we also offer a novel perspective on the propensity of civil conflict.</p>","PeriodicalId":21525,"journal":{"name":"Royal Society Open Science","volume":"12 8","pages":"250457"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12324886/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144795217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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