Economy and Forecasting最新文献

{"title":"Modeling company's financial sustainability with the use of artificial neural networks","authors":"L. Debunov","doi":"10.15407/eip2019.03.101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2019.03.101","url":null,"abstract":"For enterprises in market conditions, not only the sum of profit is important, but also their financial capacity to continue its activity. The ability of a company to counteract the threat of bankruptcy is an essential condition for its long-term functioning and sustainable development. The financial sustainability of an enterprise is a complex characteristic that can't be described by the value of a single simple indicator. In modern conditions, for its diagnosis, a comprehensive analysis using various financial indicators is used. When a human does it, such an assessment may be subjective and depends on the level of the analyst's qualification and competence.\u0000The article proposes the use of artificial neural networks to build an economic and mathematical model of company's financial sustainability, which is designed to remove the human factor, and to increase the speed and accuracy of the companies' bankruptcy threat diagnosis. An example of such a model is presented that is relevant for Ukrainian companies in the current conditions of the period after the economic crisis of 2014-2015. To model financial sustainability, a three-level artificial neural network of direct signal propagation was constructed. As input factors it is proposed to use 17 financial indicators that should give the most complete assessment of the company's financial sustainability. The study shows that prediction of bankruptcy is possible in the time horizon up to 3 years from the date of filing annual financial statements. The constructed model allows not only to accurately classify enterprises as \"financially sustainable\" and \"potential bankrupt\" but also opens up opportunities for further researches about the mutual dependence between the values of financial indicators while maintaining a certain level of financial sustainability. The model may be useful for financial institutions, investment funds, audit firms and companies themselves for timely prediction of the company's bankruptcy.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"118 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116346174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enterprise risk exposure estimation by use of corporate finance tools in Ukraine","authors":"P. Kerimov","doi":"10.15407/econforecast2019.03.029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2019.03.029","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123749262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"China: investment ambitions, limitations and opportunities","authors":"S. Korablin","doi":"10.15407/ECONFORECAST2019.03.106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/ECONFORECAST2019.03.106","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123470700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of transaction costs on the transformation of the natural gas market of Ukraine","authors":"R. Yukhymets","doi":"10.15407/eip2019.03.060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2019.03.060","url":null,"abstract":"The desire to integrate into the European development model stipulated that Ukraine voluntarily assumed international commitments about transformation of the institutional environment according to the European model. The level of political awareness of the content of the necessary changes and how to achieve a systemic balance of reforming different sectors was often declarative in the absence of any sound estimates, including the implications for different economic actors. \u0000However, the need to reform the energy sector was determined not only by international obligations, but also by the presence of domestic problems, which over time without the application of systemic changes would become barriers to the entire further economic development of Ukraine. The main content of the implementation of European directives in the energy sector was just intended to systematically transform market relations by changing the rules of market functioning, which was supposed to solve the main crisis problems in various areas of the energy sector.\u0000The recent model of Ukrainian natural gas market was featured by all the shortcomings of the pre-reformed state of European markets: the tariff system did not promote rational consumer behavior, which exacerbated the pressure on the state budget; the delivery rules did not guarantee the proper quality of service; the absence of investment in the gas transportation sector made it impossible to expand fixed assets; the established transport and distribution rules became a barrier to free access to third-party networks and the development of competition in the supply segment.\u0000The actual implementation of the Second and Third Energy Package standards in the functioning of the national market of the natural year began in 2015, with the adoption of the Law on the Natural Gas Market. Today, an urgent task remains to estimate the process of reforming the natural gas market and to efficiently solve those crisis phenomena that caused the distortion of the institutional environment of the natural gas market.\u0000Since the accumulated problems of the previous model of the natural gas market were due to the inefficiency of the institutions, the article attempted to evaluate the effectiveness of the gas sector transformation process and analyze the impact of changes in certain market segments from the perspective of neoinstitutional theory and study the level of transaction costs.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131582122","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shifting paradigm in science, technology and innovation policy of Vietnam in the international integration process","authors":"T. T. Dao","doi":"10.15407/eip2019.03.124","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2019.03.124","url":null,"abstract":"Vietnam has experienced crucial transformations in every turning point of the world history. In this process, along with changes in the economic model, social institutions, are changes in the Government’s management method in specific areas, especially in the shift from a centrally-planned to a socialist market-oriented economy. Vietnam's science, technology and innovation system has also gone through innumerable reforms to evolve, adapt and positively energize self-innovation. Science, technology and innovation indicators are embedded into the strategic goals of national policies and entered into every area, every sector (public and private) and individuals/organizations in Vietnam. In the context of international economic integration and the fourth industrial revolution, science, technology and innovation have become the targets and means for socio-economic development more than ever before. This paper aims to explore the philosophical moves in Science, technology and innovation management in Vietnam. It will clarify successes and challenges in the context of international integration. The first part of the paper discussed the concepts and approaches in policy and innovation research, since these aspects have not been fully established and agreed in previous studies in Vietnam. Secondly, the author reviewed and assessed the changes in Vietnam's science, technology and innovation policy framework to observe the four philosophy shifts of the relationship between the State and the science, technology and innovation system through the periods. Thirdly, changes in policies resulted in changes in resources, organizational structure, operational content and correlation as well as the position of elements in the science and technology and innovation system. The last part addresses macro and micro policy solutions for the development of the science, technology and innovation system for Vietnam in a new, potential, but risky context. Accordingly, science, technology and innovation policies need to be more \"open\" and \"autonomous\" to ensure the self-fulfillment, adaption and innovation of the science, technology and innovation system.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115759321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Educational and qualificational disproportions of Ukraine's regional labor market","authors":"V. Blyzniuk, Y. Yuryk","doi":"10.15407/ECONFORECAST2019.02.099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/ECONFORECAST2019.02.099","url":null,"abstract":"The article deals with educational and qualificational features and disproportions of the regional labor market. The authors reveal and summarize the features of structural and dynamic characteristics of the labor market in an industrial region (Zaporizhzhya region), and professional and sectoral structure of the employed and unemployed population. The disproportionality between regional distribution of vocational education and demand for skilled labor is considered in the context of the uneven distribution of employees by professions and economic activities, which led to distortions in the quantitative and qualitative structure of the labor market and further aggravated the mismatch between the level of labor's skills and the needs of employers at the regional level.\u0000The paper substantiates the conclusion about the autonomy of the trajectories of vocational education development in the region and the labor market of worker professions, which shows up in the excessive qualification of the employed population in the region.\u0000Based on the results of analytical calculations, the authors identified and fully characterized the professional \"core\" of the Zaporizhzhya region, which covers no less than 80% of all employed in the worker professions and identified, in its structure, the most wide spread professions in the region. The comparative characteristic of the professional \"core\" with the need of employers and their salary offers allowed to identify the bottlenecks of the occupational structure of employment in the region.\u0000Since the training of workers in accordance with the policy of decentralization is a prerogative of local authorities, it is at the regional level that workers should be trained to ensure the replenishment of a professional \"core\". The authors prove that the system of worker training in Zaporizhzhya region is not able to bring the training of skilled workers in line with the needs of the labor market. It is the social dialogue with all stakeholders in the region that acquires particular importance for the modernization of the content of educational policy.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114970242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Socialism or capitalism? Tertium Datur","authors":"G. Kolodko, Integration Transformation","doi":"10.15407/EIP2018.01.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2018.01.007","url":null,"abstract":"Two centuries ago, Asia delivered over 60 percent of world production; in the middle of the 20th century it was less than 20 percent. Currently, it is twice as large and this share is still increasing, above all but not only, because of China whose production is still growing at a rate twice as fast as the world average. China is trying to maintain high economic dynamics, inter alia, through investment external expansion. This aim is to be served, among others, by the infrastructure project, drawn up with enormous verve, known as the New Silk Road, which the Middle Kingdom addresses to 65 countries on three continents. While some hope for accelerating their own economic growth, others warn against the risk of becoming dependent on China. The article analyzes these challenges, pointing to the desired directions of irreversible evolution globalization by giving it a more inclusive character, which is also strongly emphasized by the Chinese authorities in their official enunciations. Is China still building socialism or has it already built capitalism? Or maybe both? And maybe none of those two systems as, with the market reforms that deviate from the traditional socialism, it has created something different from the classical types of political and socio-economic regimes known from the 20th century? Some authors have proclaimed that there's been capitalism in China for some time, others claim that socialism has developed there, of course one with a Chinese characteristic. Shortages have been successfully eliminated, but the economic system is unbalanced, showing surpluses this time. So is it socialism, as the official Chinese authorities claim, or capitalism, as asserted by other economists? Tertium non datur? Not at all, as there are yet other possibilities of regime interpretations, and the most fascinating one is being offered by the present-day China, where a unique internal convergence has taken place during the last generation. Elements of socialism intermingle with elements of capitalism and vice versa, creating a new, different quality. Tertium datur.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115890574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of state in promoting investments in digital development","authors":"I. Kornieieva","doi":"10.15407/eip2018.01.120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2018.01.120","url":null,"abstract":"The article outlines the role of the state in the context of the formation of an institutional environment conducive to the development of digital economy. The author points out that the financial and digital segments of the digital economy's infrastructure operate as a single coherent mechanism based on the recombination of their elements, creating a favorable environment for investment activities. The article emphasizes the importance of using modern digital technologies in overcoming information asymmetry, increasing transparency of decision-making processes by state institutions and in the context of attracting investments. The introduction of an electronic document flow system between government institutions is considered as a mechanism to ensure overcoming the information asymmetries, which would positively affect the quality of administrative services. The author analyzes open information bases as a mechanism for ensuring transparency of decision-making process by government institutions, which helps improve the investment climate. Digital infrastructure has a significant impact on the process of selection of investment projects and potential investors in public sector; also, it contributes to overcoming the ambiguity of the decision-making process through mechanisms that allow the rapid involvement of a wide range of independent experts. It is noted that digital channels create opportunities for the establishment of cooperation between state-owned companies and private investors, while financial mechanisms allow the incorporation of private capital into investment projects. The author highlights the importance of introducing an appropriate state investment policy considering avoidance of the negative impact of investment activity on the socio-economic life in this country. Emphasized the importance of the investment component in the implementation of a digital development strategy under the schemes of government-to-government, government-to-business, and government-to-society.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122091805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The use of Karhunen-Loeve filters to predict the behavior of the currency market","authors":"A. Chumakov","doi":"10.15407/EIP2018.01.098","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2018.01.098","url":null,"abstract":"One of the tasks of trading is to predict the behavior of the price of currency market transactions in order to timely enter into an agreement. The purpose of the article is to describe a proposed forecasting technique adapted for the implementation in the popular platform NinjaTrader. The forecast is based on the analysis of data provided in the Karhunen-Loeve representation using the logit model. The article describes an original and highly effective procedure for the synthesis of Karhunen-Loeve filters for statistical ensembles characterized by grouping its members around a limited (up to 103) number of typical representatives. The proposed procedure for constructing a basis provides a 102A·1012 fold reduction in the computational cost for the synthesis of Karhunen-Loeve filters for a specified type of statistical signal ensembles, which makes such a synthesis feasible. Described are programs that implement the construction of the basis, the creation and training of a logit model and the forecasting. It is demonstrated how the application of data analysis in the constructed basis with the help of a logit model can provide an acceptable level of reliability for a forecast intended for practical application.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124093795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Models of optimization of the structure of industry in Ukraine","authors":"L. Sozanskyy","doi":"10.15407/eip2018.01.079","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2018.01.079","url":null,"abstract":"A comparative analysis of the structural advantages of the industry in Ukraine and the EU member states has been carried out on the indicators of the share of gross value added (GVA) in the industrial output and the share of industry in total output. A similar analysis has been done in terms of industrial activities (mining and quarrying, processing industry, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning, water supply, sewage, and waste management). It is found that the key problem of Ukrainian industry is its low efficiency - the 28th place among the EU member states in terms of the GVA share in the output. The least effective are the processing industries, in which the share of GVA in the output is only 19.63%. The above shows the domination of the material and energy components, which confirms the raw material orientation of domestic industry, in particular, in processing industry. Based on the study of Poland's experience in restructuring the industry, the conditions and directions for optimization in the industrial sector (by types of industrial activities) are justified in order to move from the raw-type economy to innovation. With the help of developed economic and mathematical models, the author constructs optimized structures of output and GVA in the Ukrainian industry in accordance with the criteria of increasing the level of profitability and production technology. Proposed measures on structural adjustment of Ukraine's industrial sector: reducing the extraction of stone and brown coal with increased extraction of crude oil and natural gas; increasing the efficiency of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply by way of reducing the share of heat energy, with a simultaneous increase in the volumes and share of alternative, nuclear and hydro power; tariff liberalization and cost reduction and organizational reform of water supply, sewage, and waste management. It is determined that the key priority of the new industrial policy in Ukraine should be the development of manufacturing industries, for which a number of state policy measures are proposed. Among them are the increase in the share of state capital in high-tech and high-tech industries, the use of selective subsidy levers, and preferential taxation and government orders for non-tolling raw materials.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"81 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132191604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}