Economy and Forecasting最新文献

{"title":"Science and innovation in Ukraine: approaches to policy making in times of war","authors":"V. Gryga, Y. Ryzhkova","doi":"10.15407/econforecast2022.04.077","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2022.04.077","url":null,"abstract":"The full-scale war started by Russia in Ukraine has caused many challenges to economic development, the overcoming of which is hard to be imagined without the research and innovation. Rebuilding R&I became another challenge for Ukrainian policymakers. Thus, the purpose of the paper is to analyze the R&I policy of Ukraine during the war caused by Russia and to develop policy recommendations for the postwar recovery. To achieve it, we used several methods, in particular expert opinion generalization, relevant scientific and policy literature analysis, and statistical analysis. The paper considers three approaches to innovation policy-making at crisis time: produce; procure; repurpose. Currently, Ukraine uses mainly the second one, by buying and receiving modern armament and equipment. Meanwhile, there were some innovative developments in Ukraine, which are not produced in sufficient quantities. After the war, Ukraine couldn’t buy armament due to fiscal constraints. Thus, in the short-run period, the government should reorient efforts toward repurposing of current developments. However, such an approach is not sustainable in the long-run period, when the development of a broader S&T base is required to create a solid base for further repurposing in emergency cases. The war caused massive damage to Ukrainian R&I potential, which by now is not fully measured and quantified. There are two types of damage: physical loss of research and innovation infrastructure (e.g. research facilities, and high-tech enterprises) and «brain drain», both of which should be the focus of R&I policymakers. Therefore, a set of policy measures is proposed to address the war-led challenges in R&I.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130274004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A LEADER OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH AT THE TURN OF THE ERA (to the 95th anniversary of I.I.Lukinov)","authors":"V. Nebrat","doi":"10.15407/econforecast2022.03.112","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2022.03.112","url":null,"abstract":"The jubilee article presents Academician I. Lukinov's creative and organizational contribution to the development of Ukrainian economic science. The author outlines the areas of the scholar's research in the Soviet period. The significance of I. Lukinov's innovative ideas for overcoming negative trends in the functioning of the planned centralized economy is substantiated. The scientist’s scientific position is revealed as regards the justification of the strategy of market transformations and socio-economic development of Ukraine in the era of state independence.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133736625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"REGULATION OF UKRAINE’S COMMODITY MARKETS IN CONDITIONS OF EMERGENCY AND MARTIAL LAW","authors":"V. Olefir","doi":"10.15407/econforecast2022.03.065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2022.03.065","url":null,"abstract":"The economy can function both under normal and extraordinary conditions, which include states of emergency and martial law. Emergency conditions arise from time to time and can be both relatively short and sufficiently long. The functioning of the economy in conditions of emergency and martial law can include overcoming the pandemic and repelling armed aggression. The functioning of the economy in conditions of emergency and martial law requires special methods of state regulation, including on commodity markets. The purpose of the article is to determine methodical approaches to the formation of regulatory policy on commodity markets under conditions of emergency and martial law. To achieve the goal, the following tasks were set: 1) to determine the peculiarities of the regulation of commodity markets in conditions of emergency and martial law; 2) assess the effectiveness of regulatory influence; and 3) substantiate recommendations for improvement of regulatory policy. Various methods of sampling and statistical processing of information were used during the research. Data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, and the State Service of Ukraine on Food Safety and Consumer Protection were used for the analysis. Special attention was paid to the methods of price regulation and increasing supply in commodity markets of consumer goods. One of the main features of the functioning of the economy in conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic and martial law is the disruption of the usual supply chains of goods. There is a commodity shortage in the markets, which accelerates the growth of prices. Therefore, the main task of regulatory policy in commodity markets is to encourage supply and curb inflation. To this end, during 2020-2022, a set of measures was introduced: the procedure for starting a business was simplified, the tax burden was reduced, pricing was deregulated, exports were limited, barriers to imports were lowered, a declaration of intent to increase prices was introduced, price limits were established, etc. As a result of the conducted research, it was found: 1) high efficiency of influence on the price dynamics on the part of export restrictions and tax benefits; 2) low effectiveness of the declaration of the intention to increase the price; 3) relatively high efficiency of setting ceiling prices during a pandemic and low efficiency of this measure under martial law; 3) high expediency of introducing free prices on the markets of goods of significant social importance with high competition between suppliers; 4) great importance of the competition between suppliers to overcome shortages and price stability. In order to improve the regulatory policy in the conditions of emergency and martial law, the following recommendations have been substantiated: 1) canceling the price limits in highly competitive markets; 2) simplifying the procedure for declaring the intention to increase the price and strengthening ","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116816449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION SECTOR IN THE CREATIVE ECONOMY SYSTEM OF THE EU COUNTRIES: EXPERIENCE FOR UKRAINE","authors":"M. Kichurchak","doi":"10.15407/econforecast2022.03.079","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2022.03.079","url":null,"abstract":"One of the major factors to form a creative economy in the EU countries and Ukraine is the development of the information and communication sector (ICS). The purpose of the article is to evaluate the structural transformation peculiarities of the ICS in the EU countries in the conditions of forming and developing the creative economy and to determine the chief directions of adaptation of this experience to the social and economic situation in Ukraine. Scientific methods of induction, deduction, analysis, synthesis, statistical evaluation of variation, and multiple econometric modelling are used. The author has specified that the ICS contributes to the formation of the creative economy in Ukraine and the EU countries, based on a gradual increase in the share of this sector in output and employment in 2008–2020. The scientific and methodological approach to evaluating of structural changes in the ICS as a component of the creative economy has been formed including: a comparative analysis of the dynamics of output (% of GDP) and employment (% of total) in the ICS between the EU countries and Ukraine; determining the features of spatial differentiation based on calculating the scope of variation, sample variance and coefficient of variation for the main social and economic indicators of ICS; and identifying factors that affect output of the ICS (% of GDP) by means of the multiple regression analysis. In 2008–2020, the existence of different dynamics of the sector’s impact on the development of creative economy in the EU countries is substantiated via the increase in the value of variation in terms of output (% of GDP) and employment (% of total). According to the results of multiple regression analysis, the author has found out the factors influencing the output of the ICS in the EU countries, which include the current social and economic situation in the country, and the amount of expenditures on R&D and on unemployment. Taking into account the experience of the EU countries, it is important for Ukraine to encourage economic activities in the ICS, which are based on structural reforms.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134426453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"UKRAINE’S POST-WAR ECONOMY: INTERNATIONAL AID AND GROWTH POLICY","authors":"O. Pustovoit","doi":"10.15407/econforecast2022.03.045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2022.03.045","url":null,"abstract":"The full-scale war unleashed in 2022 by the Russian Federation against Ukraine is accompanied by massive destruction of infrastructure and industrial facilities. Their rapid recovery is impossible without international assistance. However, it is known from history that the use of such aid did not always lead to accelerated post-war recovery of countries whose markets and economies are developing. Knowledge of such facts urged Western scientists to search for a mechanism of aid's impact on economic growth. Researches that began in the 1960s did not shed light on this mechanism. However, they did show that aid speeded up economic growth and recovery in countries that conducted better fiscal, monetary, and trade policies and succeeded in establishing the rule of law. In the article, a slightly different scientific approach is substantiated. It assumes that when the country implements not only a better fiscal, monetary, foreign trade, institutional, but also structural economic policy, the impact of international aid on postwar economic growth can significantly increase. The proposed approach gives grounds for the statement that the limited amount of aid in Ukraine should not be dissipated on the reconstruction of all industrial facilities destroyed and damaged by the war, but it is advisable to concentrate it on the restoration of enterprises that are able to start production and sale of increased technological complexity products on international markets within a short period. The advantages of such use of the aid are shown by calculation. It shows that directing international aid at expanding exports of high technological complexity items would create in Ukraine favorable conditions for increasing the post-war annual growth rates of commodity production to 10% and reduce the period of recovery of this indicator to the 2021 level from 12 to 6 years. At the same time, arguments are given that the proposed use of aid is only a means of shortening the terms of the economy's exit from the crisis and its transition to a state of accelerated growth. It will be possible to turn this state into a long-term economic trend only if an effective mechanism is introduced for encouraging the companies’ innovative activities and attracting foreign investments in industries producing items of increased technological complexity. Modeling possible scenarios of the post-war recovery of Ukraine's economy somewhat expands the scientific understanding of the mechanism of aid's effect on a country’s economic growth. In particular, it is supplemented by the idea that in the post-war period, international aid plays the role of a driver of high rates of a country’s economic growth to the extent that it contributes to economic restructuring of the production from military to civil mode transforming it from technologically simple to more technologically complex.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126806838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"STRATEGIES OF ECONOMIC STABILITY IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT","authors":"A. Grytsenko","doi":"10.15407/econforecast.2022.03.006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast.2022.03.006","url":null,"abstract":"The article deals with the problems raised in Sergio Mariotti's article on \"A warning from the Russian-Ukrainian war: avoiding a future that rhymes with the past\". The author supports the proposal for a broader view of the events and for the inclusion of a historical component in the analysis. At the same time, it is argued that a comparative historical analysis might be insufficient to solve such complex problems. The method of ascent from the abstract to the concrete is proposed, which allows considering systemic modern phenomena as a result of the entire previous historical development. On this basis, it is shown that the war in Ukraine is a concrete manifestation of the contradictions of globalization and localization, which historically originated from the jointly-divided labor and reached the apogee of their development in modern times. A hybrid \"peace-war\" system emerged and the process of changing the world order began based on the transition from industrial-market economy to information-network economy, which naturally increases uncertainties and contradictions. The policy of free trade and the policy of protectionism only are concrete manifestations of the contradictions of globalization and localization. It is shown that as a result of the aggravation of the contradictions of globalization and localization and their specific manifestations, objective tendencies to ensure the national rootedness of the sustainability of economic development arise. The generalization of such trends and their conscious use necessitates the formation of strategies of nationally rooted economic development, which will be relevant until the completion of a new technical and technological system and the formation of an information network based system of socio-economic relations. The article identifies the main features of the strategy of nationally rooted economic development relevant for the current conditions of Ukraine.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"90 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131416575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A RHYMED CHRONICLE OF THE WAR","authors":"O. Sharov","doi":"10.15407/econforecast.2022.03.016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast.2022.03.016","url":null,"abstract":"Response to the article: Mariotti, Sergio (2022, July 4). A warning from the Russian–Ukrainian war: avoiding a future that rhymes with the past. Journal of Industrial and Business Economics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40812-022-00219-z","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121741342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Peculiarities of non-financial reporting development in Ukraine","authors":"M. Dielini","doi":"10.15407/econforecast2022.01.119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2022.01.119","url":null,"abstract":"Under the condition of sustainable development, corporate social responsibility (CSR) becomes more important, and can be the key to improving the company's image and competitiveness on the market. Areas and forms of CSR implementation are numerous, one of which is the company's reporting on socially responsible practices. The importance of non-financial reporting is also emphasized by the Concept of state policy in the field of promoting corporate social responsibility in Ukraine until 2030 that highlights the necessity to publish non-financial reporting, which substantiates the topic of this scientific article. The purpose of the article is to determine the features of the introduction and dissemination of the practice of compiling and forms of non-financial reporting in Ukraine as a direction of manifestation of social responsibility of business. Methods of the article include analytical, statistical, comparison, and extrapolation ones etc. Theoretical analysis allows determining the main standards by which non-financial reports can be generated. These include: Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), UN Global Compact Report, AA1000 Standard, SA 8000: 2001 Social Responsibility Standard, and ISO 26000 Standard. Among the most common are the GRI Standard and UN Global Compact Report. The practical results of the study reveal that in Ukraine the number of GRI reports has increased compared to 2008, but this development is uneven. A comparison of the number of non-financial reports in Ukraine and Europe according to the Corporate Register found out that the number of reports in European countries has different trends: a decrease in 2017-2018 in some countries (UK, Germany, and France) and a subsequent revival to gradual growth in all countries. Analysis of the Transparency Index, calculated by the Center for the Development of Corporate Social Responsibility that considers the websites of companies based on CSR information for the period 2012-2020 reflects a change of countries that are leaders in this indicator. A positive characteristic is that among the TOP-10 companies there are not only private enterprises, but also state-owned ones. Overall indicators of CSR practices tend to increase and reflect the growing importance of this area of corporate social responsibility.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131221407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Current state and prospects of organic production development in Ukraine: looking to the future","authors":"K. Prokopenko, Liudmyla Udova","doi":"10.15407/econforecast2022.01.138","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2022.01.138","url":null,"abstract":"The article substantiates the importance of the production of organic agricultural products as a component of a healthy lifestyle, as well as ensuring the preservation and restoration of the environment. The authors reveal the ecological, economic and social benefits of organic production, in particular, preservation of the nation’s natural and health; reproduction of soil fertility; increased competitiveness of domestic producers on internal and foreign markets; improving the welfare of the rural population, etc. It is stated that organic production includes the conscious use of soil as an ecosystem; application of production methods and preventive protection of crops. It is established that presently the interest of consumers in the consumption of environmentally friendly foods, whose production has no negative impact on the environment, is currently growing. The study of the global organic market shows an active growth in both the number of organic producers and the output of organic products. The market of organic products in Ukraine is at an early stage of development, but there is a steady trend towards increased number of organic producers, expanded range of certified products, and increased exports of organic foodstuffs. The authors analyze a number of factors hindering the development of organic production in Ukraine, in particular, the lack of public awareness of the properties of organic foods and their difference from conventional ones; shortage of qualified specialists in producing organic foods; insufficient solution of logistical problems; low purchasing power of the population, etc. The key changes in EU legislation on organic production are considered, one of the important innovations being the possibility of using \"group certification\", which allows small farmers to unite, produce and jointly pass the certification of organic products. Emphasis is placed on the prospects of this model for Ukrainian producers. The study shows the possibility of using organic foods in schools based on the example of the positive experience of EU countries – for the growing a healthy, conscious and responsible generation that will take care of the future of the state.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"67 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114802446","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Formation of institutional structural determinants of endogenous influence on the level of gross saving in Ukraine","authors":"I. Kryuchkova","doi":"10.15407/econforecast2021.03.028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2021.03.028","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzes domestic institutional structural determinants of gross saving (GS) in Ukraine in order to identify the causes of the critical decline in GS and, accordingly, in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) in 2019-2021. The diagnosis was made based on indicators of annual and quarterly national accounts of Ukraine with the definition of positive and negative factors influencing GS by institutional sectors, as well as subsectors of nonfinancial corporations and households. This approach made it possible to reveal the hidden causes of the decline in gross saving in Ukraine, as well as the decline in GS capitalization and the deep investment crisis in 2020. The author shows that the shock tariff increase in 2015 provoked a significant redistribution of income and savings between the institutional sectors and their subsectors. It is found that of all structural determinants, fluctuations in the level of GS in the subsector of private nonfinancial corporations are most affected by the changes in the share of gross operating surplus, (GOS) and by the large-scale outflow of financial resources through the property income channel, which varies closely depending on the growth of borrowing. These fluctuations are also affected by zero and abrupt cycles in raising the minimum wage. At the same time, it is proved that the inconsistency of the government's tariff and social policies created a two-fold gap between the statutory social standards and their actual level, which led to significant decline in living standards, especially for the recipients of property income and transfer incoms, turning them into chronic negative borrowers with negative gross saving. This had a negative impact on the GS of the whole household sector. Deepening the analysis to the level of GS structural determinants of the households subsectors shows that the high levels of GS in the subsector of self-employed workers and the subsector of employers do not correspond to the low levels of their gross fixed capital formation, i.e. a significant share of GS of these subsectors does not become a full source of national investment. The author outlines the directions for desired changes in the structural determinants of endogenous impact on the GS level in the household sector and proposes a number of government measures that could positively affect the distribution of income between the institutional sectors and subsectors and, accordingly, the level of GS/","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115941811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}