Economy and Forecasting最新文献

{"title":"The biofuels market in Ukraine","authors":"G. Trypolska, R. Podolets","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.02.075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.02.075","url":null,"abstract":"Paper focuses on the present condition of the biofuels market in Ukraine, Ukraine's international obligations regarding energy consumption from renewables by 2020 and possibilities to achieve the set goal. Theoretically, reaching the set goal is possible, but in practice the goal of 10% renewables in the transport sector by 2020 will probably be unachievable. The structure of energy consumption in 2020 is expected to be significantly different from that presumed by the National Action Plan on Renewables until 2020, and less biofuels would be needed to achieve the goal of 10% renewables in transport sector by 2020 than it is set out by the mentioned Action Plan. While maintaining the structure of fuel consumption by road subsector of 2015, in order to provide 10% of energy from renewables in the automotive sub-sector, about 164 thousand toe bioethanol and 256 thousand tons toe of biodiesel are needed. The abolishment of the mandatory blending of 5% of biofuels was inappropriate, as without this requirement market growth ceased. The measures to enhance biofuels market include reducing the excise duty rate for bioethanol compared with a rate of excise duty on petrol; adopting sustainability criteria of biofuels; expansion of types of biofuels; information campaigns to popularize biofuels; reducing the cost of parking for cars, marked for the use of large volumes of biofuels in municipal parking lots; permit for vehicles marked for the use of large amounts of biofuel to use the lanes for public transport; encouraging the market to sell biofuels with high content of biological components; providing financial preferences for sellers of petroleum products in order to create the infrastructure for blending of biological component of fuel. The article was prepared within the research project on \"Economic policy of the development of integrated energy markets of Ukraine\".","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124497417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Harmonization of excise tax on tobacco products","authors":"A. Sokolovska, L. Rainova","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.02.093","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.02.093","url":null,"abstract":"The article deals with the experience of post-socialist EU countries, in particular, Bulgaria, as to the accomplishment of minimal requirements to the level of excise taxation of cigarettes within the general process of tax harmonization. The authors consider consequences of this policy in the context of its impact on the cigarette market, achievement of health goals and provision of the planned level of budget revenues. Analyzed the contradictions harmonization of the excise tax on cigarettes in EU, which take the form of the change of its target reference points, i.e. complementing the indicator of minimum level of the overall excise rate on cigarettes with minimal requirements to the size of excise yield, which is recognized as the most effective mechanism for reducing price differentiation among EU countries. The authors define features of the excise policy in Ukraine, which is characterized by high rates of increase of the specific excise and a minimum excise duty on cigarettes. There are arguments in favor of the assumption that this trend did not lead to price shock only because the cigarette manufacturers, competing for the market, tried to keep low prices for their products. It is concluded that, in Ukraine, the continuation of the aggressive policy of raising excise rates for cigarettes, especially in a combination with the establishment by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine of minimum wholesale and retail prices for them, sooner or later can lead to a price increase and, on this basis, to the expansion of the shadow cigarette market. The authors justify the necessity of compliance by the Ukrainian government of such principles of efficient excise policy as gradual increase of excise tax rates, development and implementation of a stage-by-stage plan of harmonization of the tax burden on tobacco products, considering, in the process at setting tax rates on cigarettes, such factors as the risk of smuggling, purchasing power of local consumers, tax rates in neighboring countries, and the ability and effectiveness of the tax authority to enforce compliance with the tax legislation. The article was prepared within the research project on \"Improving the tax system with the decentralization of state power\" (No of state registration 0115U000938).","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126720513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Localization of production – a world practice and conclusions for Ukraine","authors":"I. Shovkun","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.02.031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.02.031","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the prevalence of localization measures in the practice of countries with different levels of development, localization requirements in Ukraine are still rare. Meanwhile, the dependence of Ukrainian economy on imports increases and acquires threatening dimensions. The expansion of imports begets weakening of country's economic stability, nourishes the structural crisis, impedes the development of industry, and causes a situation where imports suppress production instead of complementing it. These problems represent the focus of the present study, which deals with theoretical and practical aspects of production localization. The study aims at determining the essence and forms of the requirements for localization, generalizing the world experience in applying such requirements with identifying their effectiveness, analyzing the specificity of such requirements in individual sectors of economy, and substantiating the economic necessity of their use in Ukraine. The estimation of the import dependence of Ukrainian economy and, in particular, its industrial sector, based on data of the input-output tables allows detecting an excessive level of import dependence of Ukrainian economy and industry. It is proved that the proportions in which imports are involved in the economic processes are extraordinary, and hence a corresponding regulation with the application of systemic measures for production localization is required. The author identifies the areas of desirable application of the localization requirements for those industries that are critically dependent on imports by intermediate consumption, final consumption and gross capital formation, as well as various promising types of production with a solid scientific and innovation base.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127821415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A macrostructural institutional scoretable of Ukrainian economy","authors":"I. Kryuchkova","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.02.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.02.007","url":null,"abstract":"The article presents the results of a monitoring of the key parameters of the institutional sectors in Ukraine's economy, united by the author in a macrostructural institutional scoreboard (MIS). The monitoring starts with fixing the changes: in the deficit/surplus of each of the institutional sectors, in external debt for each sector and economy as a whole, sectoral distribution of gross disposable income, gross savings and gross fixed capital accumulation, which allows assessing the fundamental structural changes at the level of economic sectors and the safety of GDI levels of each of them, taking into account the basic preconditions for GDP growth. In addition, the scoretable represents indicators of the GDI components for each institutional sector that reveal the factors behind the increase/decrease of the share of sectors' GDI in total GDI, which allows determining the political factor that has caused the corresponding macro-structural changes and assessing the nature of their impact. The monitoring also uses important indicators to identify price effects on the reallocation of income between sectors, such as consumer price index, basic consumer price index, some of their components, price terms of trade, lending to institutional sectors, etc. Consequently, it covers both macroeconomic structures, and developments in individual institutional sectors and in the economy as a whole, which can signal the danger of crisis events.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127882544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A change in the traditional items of Ukraine's export","authors":"T. Ostashko, V. Lir, V. Venger, V. Olefir, O. Bykonia","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.02.057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.02.057","url":null,"abstract":"During 2012-2016, domestic commodity exports declined annually. This trend is dangerous for the national economy, which is characterized by excessive dependence on the external conjuncture. The purpose of the article is to identify external and internal reasons of the reduction of commodity exports and to suggest ways and means to overcome this negative trend. The article focuses on the main export markets and the basic and traditional commodity groups of domestic exports. Based on the analysis of domestic and international statistics, study of foreign trade agreements, domestic and foreign scientific publications on the problems of foreign trade, strategies and development programs of domestic exports and other information materials, the main factors of the deterioration of external and domestic market conditions have been identified, and ways and methods of overcoming those negative tendencies have been systematized and generalized. Among the results that have elements of scientific novelty, one can mention the following: 1) identification of certain endogenous factors that hold back the growth and diversification of Ukrainian exports (institutional incapacity of the state-owned companies; the limited character of existing trade agreements (if any) between Ukraine and countries with a high potential for encouraging Ukraine's exports); a comprehensive analysis of the current condition of foreign trade with the People's Republic of China, Turkey and Kazakhstan; an in-depth analysis of the global and domestic market conditions for metallurgical products. An example of institutional incapacity of the state-owned companies to enhance exports is the activities of the State Food and Grain Corporation of Ukraine (SFGCU). In 2012, the SFGCU and the Export-Import Bank of China agreed on the provision of a loan of $ 3 billion to the Ukrainian corporation under state guarantees. Half of the loan was intended for the purchase of grain (mainly maize) for further export to the People's Republic of China through the mediation of the Chinese National Machine Industry and General Contract Corporation. The second half of the loan was intended for the purchase of Chinese agricultural machinery and material resources for with subsequent delivery to Ukraine. With lowering world prices for maize in 2014, the SFGCU actually refused to comply with several provisions of the contract, after which the Chinese party filed a lawsuit against Ukraine to the London International Arbitral Tribunal for damages of $ 3 billion. At the same time, a partial resumption of Ukraine's export of maize to China is possible subject to the solution of certain Ukraine's domestic institutional problems - from those that lie within the control of government institutions involved in contractual relations with the Chinese party, to the development of the system of phytosanitary control in Ukraine. A unique situation has arisen in trade between Ukraine and Kazakhstan. In order to ensure its econo","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115958492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The heterogeneous impact of monetary levers on the indicators of lending and economic activity","authors":"O. Petryk, I. Deysan","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.02.129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.02.129","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the effect of the monetary transmission mechanism in the cross-sectoral context. The transmission mechanism from refinancing rate, liquidity and hryvnia exchange rate against the U.S. dollar to sectoral lending and economic activity was studied using a structural VAR-model. A significant heterogeneity in the response of sectoral indicators was found, which should be taken into account by the National Bank of Ukraine when setting up monetary policy. In particular, the transmission to consumer lending rates differs from the transmission to corporate and interbank lending rates, as well as government lending rates. Consumer credit rates are reduced due to rising liquidity and do not react to refinancing rates. An unexpected decrease in such rates after the devaluation was evidently due to partial realization of the currency risk. The volumes of lending to the population depend only on the hryvnia to the dollar exchange rate. That is, the National Bank has virtually no direct influence on consumer lending. In addition, the change in interest rate channel from the beginning of 2015 was studied using a panel VAR-model. A positive change in monetary transmission during this period was the emergence of an effective interest rate channel, and hence effective transmission of the NBU refinancing rate to the short-term rates on loans in national currency. The pass-through of the weighted average rate on the NBU refinancing operations to short-term bank lending rates is about 30-40% (that is, such rates increase by 0.3-0.4 percentage points in response to 1 percentage point increase in the refinancing rate).","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116956849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identification of small agricultural producers: European experience for Ukraine","authors":"I. Prokopa, I. Demchak","doi":"10.15407/eip2017.01.058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.01.058","url":null,"abstract":"One of the areas of improvement of state agrarian policy in Ukraine is increasing support for small farms. However, there is still no common position on the division of agricultural producers by economic size. For identifying it, it seems appropriate to take into account the practice of the European Union, where the typology of farms uses the indicator of economic size. It is based on the economic parameter of Standard Output (SO) and describes the possible value of production that the producer is able to get, with the available productive capacity and conducting business in a particular region. The economic size of farms is determined based on their acreage and number of animals using regional SO ratios, which are calculated in the EU by relevant authorities. The farms are classified by economic size in 14 classes ranging from \"less than 2 thousand Euros\" to \"more than 3 mln Euros.\" Within the system, there are groups of small, medium and large farms. Ukraine needs to adopt the European approach to assessing the size of the farms, in which the group of small sized farms would include individual farms (households), peasant family farms and small sized economically independent farms. It is necessary to immediately start to build a national system of determination of farm size in terms of the economic parameter of Standard Output. During the transition period, it is expedient to temporarily assess the economic value of farms using an indicator as close as possible to the SO.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"29 4 Suppl 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131689159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On some peculiar features in the introduction of the \"entry-exit\" tariff model on Ukrainian natural gas market","authors":"R. Yukhymets","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.01.128","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.01.128","url":null,"abstract":"The article considers the prerequisites of transformation of the national natural gas market and describes the main motivating factors determining the direction of reforms in its sectors. The topicality of implementing the model \"entry-exit\" on the gas market is examined both in the context of Ukraine's international commitments, and in the context of a series of crisis phenomena that have emerged in the sector of servicing and transportation of natural gas. The change of the market model in the sphere of gas transportation predetermines the principles of tariff formation for the services provided by the GTS operator. This determines the necessity of justification of the components in the system of tariff formation, such as: regulation of projected costs, amortization, regulatory base, regulatory phase of the standard income of transportation operator. The article analyses the experience of adjusting these components in other European countries and provides relevant recommendations for the national market. It is shown that such changes fundamentally transform the national market of natural gas. Transition from \"investment plus\" to the regulation of standard income means that operator's income on inserted investments, considering the level of expected investment risks, is sufficient for providing updating and development. The change of regulatory phase allows improving the predictability and creating prerequisites for involving new investments for long-term projects. The review of the methodology determining the regulatory base allows establishing a market price for the transport operators' main assets and making fully-fledged amortization deductions. It will give an opportunity to involve additional funds for renewal of the infrastructure and, based on the new price, establish objectively determined level of profitability of the transport operator in accordance with the new rates of spending, which are correctly accounted for and covered by the tariff rate. Determination of a compulsory rate of increasing annual performance creates prerequisites for reducing the costs and final tariff for the consumers. Analyzing the barriers to the implementation of \"entry-exit\" tariff model in Ukraine, author gives some recommendations for the adaption of transit agreements to the new conditions of the national market, determining trade zones, and removal of the current infrastructural and institutional restrictions, which hinder the model's implementation.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125568248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Financial tools to ensure the development of the national economy","authors":"O. Bilousova","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.01.031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.01.031","url":null,"abstract":"The article tackles the problem of the lack of consistency between the fiscal and monetary levers and relevant instruments of state regulation. The author defines the main factors in the development of Ukraine's real sector, and provides a comparative analysis of financial sources in the EU and Ukraine, which indicates the need to address the problems of investing in Ukraine in order to achieve a long-term growth. The article deals with the problems of financial security of the investment process, implementation of innovative investment projects as well as funding for post-crisis recovery and stabilization in the real economy of Ukraine. The author establishes that the revival of the state participation becomes increasingly important in financing projects of long-term economic development; as well as in stimulating research, development and innovation enterprises, and encouraging institutional investors and shareholders to participate in a long-term investment. Given the financial and economic situation in the real economy, it is determined that the investment problem should be resolved along with the restoration of the companies' financial stability (post-crisis recovery). The author argues that the imbalance in the flow of financial resources is one of the main causes of the recurrence of the crisis. Preconditions of the risks of imbalance in the financial flows are defined as well as the reasons for the lack of financial resources for operational and investment activities. Proposed various indicators to assess the effectiveness of the use of financial resources. Developed a balance sheet based approach to assess the capital outflow from Ukraine's real economy. The author discusses the necessity of reform the levers and tools of financing the real sector based on a mutually ensuring financial cooperation between the state and businesses. There is an overview of the international experience in the financial security of economic development. Various recommendations are provided to improve the public policy of financial security of Ukraine's economy.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133029879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ukrainian agriculture: challenges and ways of development under the climate change","authors":"K. Prokopenko, L. Udova","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.01.092","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.01.092","url":null,"abstract":"The article identifies and substantiates the challenges and prospects of agriculture under the climate change. Ukrainian agriculture serves as an important component of global food security, whose further development is dependent on natural resources, the environment and climate change. Agriculture is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions, however, at the same time, it is suffering from the climate change itself. Although Ukraine is not included in the list of the most vulnerable to global warming regions on our planet, if no appropriate urgent action is taken, the climate change will continue to pressure on the agricultural ecosystems. The authors highlight positive (changed terms and conditions of harvesting, increased efficiency of fertilizers, etc.) and negative (deterioration of grain quality, increased frequency of droughts, etc.) effects of the climate change on agriculture; they identify and summarize the main measures to reduce the negative impact of agriculture on climate change and propose various basic adaptation measures that would mitigate the negative impact of the climate change on agriculture. Under the conditions of climate change, an important factor in improving the efficiency of agriculture is a rigorous distribution of arable lands between separate crops with regard to climate change. One of the important measures to improve the crop rotation pattern is including so called \"niche\" crops that have a significant potential for the diversification of the oilseed-and-grain pattern, which dominates in the crop rotations in southern Ukraine.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"11 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120808619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}