pure and applied geophysics最新文献

{"title":"An analytical near-source shock wave model explaining anomalous periods of volcanic lamb waves: evidence from the 2022 hunga tonga eruption","authors":"Oleg V. Ponomarev","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03738-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03738-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Using the dimensional analysis a novel model for shock wave generation during explosive volcanic eruptions is proposed. An analytical derivation of the dependence of the shock wave’s peak pressure on the initial energy and the distance from the epicenter in the case of a volcanic explosion has been obtained, whose predictions agree with the results of numerical modeling within the margin of error. A relationship between the parameters of the shock wave in the vicinity of the source and those of the atmospheric Lamb wave is established, offering an explanation for the phenomenon of longer-than-expected periods in volcanic Lamb waves, first observed following the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helen’s. Differences between atmospheric Lamb waves generated by volcanic explosive eruptions and thermonuclear tests are studied. Additionally, based on the introduced model, a method for estimating the composition of volcanic gases based solely on observational data from points distant from the epicenter is proposed. The model’s consistency with observational data is demonstrated through a comparison with barographic measurements from the January 15, 2022, Hunga-Tonga eruption, provided by Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory, where the Lamb wave was recorded at 50 stations worldwide. The evolution of Lamb wave parameters with distance and its attenuation characteristics were investigated using observational data.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 7","pages":"2723 - 2735"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144814331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating the Effects of Active Tectonics on Rockfall Susceptibility Along the Mountain Sector of Chalus Highway","authors":"Hadi Jarahi,&nbsp;Mahsa Abdollahi,&nbsp;Hadi Aboutalebi,&nbsp;Ali Khosronezhad","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03765-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03765-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Numerous rockfalls occur along the southern foothills of the Alborz mountain range, particularly affecting the Chalus highway. This study aims to identify the key factors influencing rockfall events and to produce a susceptibility zoning map using GIS-based modeling techniques. A high-resolution 10-m DEM, geological maps, and field data were integrated to simulate rockfall frequency, velocity, height, and energy. The analysis identified nine high-risk zones along the highway corridor. Results indicate that while tectonic activity plays a role in rock fragmentation, climatic conditions particularly freeze–thaw cycles during winter are the main trigger for rockfalls. The generated susceptibility map provides essential information for road management and risk mitigation strategies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 8","pages":"3193 - 3203"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144934705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction: Investigation of Radioxenon Probability Density Functions at IMS Radionuclide Stations Using a Monte Carlo Method for Background Estimation","authors":"Yuichi Kijima,&nbsp;Robin Schoemaker,&nbsp;Anne Tipka,&nbsp;Boxue Liu,&nbsp;Joshua Kunkle,&nbsp;Jolanta Kuśmierczyk-Michulec,&nbsp;Martin Kalinowski,&nbsp;Mark Prior,&nbsp;Megan Slinkard","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03767-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03767-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 8","pages":"3339 - 3339"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00024-025-03767-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144934707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reanalysis of Historical Earthquakes to Improve Seismic Risk Assessment: A Deterministic Scenario Based on 1856 Djidjelli (Algeria) Tsunamigenic Earthquake","authors":"Mouloud Hamidatou,&nbsp;Assia Harbi,&nbsp;Said Maouche,&nbsp;Nassim Hallal","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03771-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03771-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Certain regions of Algeria, particularly in the Northeast, are currently facing heightened seismic activity alongside considerable social and economic challenges. Should a seismic event akin to the Djidjelli (now Jijel) earthquake of August 21 and 22, 1856, strike again, numerous coastal cities may suffer significant damage. This study is part of a broader project aimed at estimating seismic risk and damage levels following seismic events, with a particular focus on initial acceleration computation, which serves as a crucial tool for our modeling. Given the significance of conducting studies that enable the estimation of seismic risk and potential damage in urban agglomerations, the overall goal of this work is to assess seismic risk in an urban agglomeration using a deterministic scenario to estimate the risk, seismic vulnerability and damage potential. We provide a seismic risk scenario for Jijel city, with a particular focus on the susceptibility of its historically significant districts: Bourmel-Ben Achour, Ouled Aissa–Camp Chevalier, and the Old City. Using a Ground Motion Prediction Equation, we calculated the maximum expected ground acceleration based on the following considerations: (a) the 1856 Jijel seismic event as a reference; (b) site impacts associated with the area’s geological characteristics; (c) building damage; and (d) seismic vulnerability. This research presents a Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) map that incorporates the influence of site lithology (Avib). The highest acceleration was recorded in the city center, with EC8 offering a reliable estimate of acceleration across all three examined areas: Bourmel-Ben Achour, Ouled Aissa–Camp Chevalier, and the Old City. The strongest tremors are felt in Jijel’s city center and eastern regions. Correlation with the geological features reveals an estimated PGA of 0.28 g in the Old Town area. This estimate closely aligns with the PGA of 0.52 g obtained from our independent analysis, which accounts for local lithology and site conditions. Furthermore, according to the RPA (Algerian earthquake engineering code) the Jijel province is classified as Zone IIa (medium seismicity), with an acceleration data of 0.25 g. This study integrates Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data into risk models.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 8","pages":"3167 - 3191"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144934781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prediction of Future Drought Characteristics Over the Southwest Turkey Using CMIP6 Models","authors":"Erhan Şener,&nbsp;Ayşen Davraz","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03757-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03757-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The impacts of climate change on precipitation and drought are of great importance for agriculture, water resources and ecosystems. The CMIP6 models developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) within the scope of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulate future climate conditions under various climate scenarios and provide a better understanding of possible changes at regional and global levels. In this study, 4 different CMIP6 models, namely CANESM5, EC-EARTH3, MIROC6 and MRI-ESM2, were used to model future precipitation and temperature data in Isparta region located in the Lakes Region. Six different optimistic and pessimistic Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, namely SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5, were considered in the modelling phase. In the projections made until 2100, it is predicted that in optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, temperature increases may reach up to 2.84 °C, 3.3 °C, 4.06 °C, 5.18 °C, 4.77 °C and 5.78 °C, respectively, and precipitation may decrease by approximately 14.9%. In addition, the results obtained from drought analyses using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) show that the severity and duration of current droughts will increase significantly in the future due to decreases in precipitation and increases in temperatures in the coming years. In Isparta, which is located in the Lakes Region, a region vulnerable to drought, it is very important to develop drought management strategies in order to minimize the effects of severe droughts that may occur in the future.</p><h3>Graphical abstract</h3><div><figure><div><div><picture><source><img></source></picture></div></div></figure></div></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 8","pages":"3311 - 3338"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00024-025-03757-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144934681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Novel Statistical Framework for Assessing Future Drought Using Multiple Global Climate Model: The Weighted Multimodal Adaptive Standardized Precipitation Index","authors":"Rabiya Fatima,&nbsp;Zulfiqar Ali","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03768-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03768-1","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;p&gt;Drought is one of the major consequences of global warming. Being a complex natural hazard, its accurate assessment is challenging. Simulated data of varying climate parameters from Global Climate Models (GCMs) is a crucial source for assessing the future characteristics of climate change. The objective of this article is to improve future drought assessment based on ensemble of multiple GCMs. Consequently, this study proposes a new statistical framework to improve future drought assessment based on a multiple GCM ensemble. The proposed framework introduces a new weighting scheme for Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs), called the Precipitation Concentration Index-Based Weighting Scheme for Multi-Model Ensembles (PCIWS-MME), and a drought index known as the Weighted Multimodal Adaptive Standardized Precipitation Index (WMASPI). The application of the proposed research is based on 22 GCMs from the Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and covers 103 grid points in Pakistan. To assess the effectiveness of PCIWS-MME, we compared its performance with the Simple Multimodel Mean (MME) and Mutual Information (MI) using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Average Error (MAE). Furthermore, we evaluated the quality of WMASPI by fitting the most appropriate models, whether univariate, mixture-based, or derived from nonparametric probability plotting position formulas. The results of probabilistic modeling indicate that mixture probability models are more appropriate than univariate alternatives. For example, on the 3-month time scale under Scenario 1, the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) for the best-fitting univariate distribution is &lt;span&gt;(-)&lt;/span&gt;708.11, while the K-CGMM model achieves a substantially lower BIC of -7001, reflecting a significantly better fit. Similarly, at the 24-month time scale under Scenario 3, the univariate model yields a BIC of &lt;span&gt;(-)&lt;/span&gt;301.52, whereas the K-CGMM model attains a much lower BIC of &lt;span&gt;(-)&lt;/span&gt;980.68, further confirming its superior performance. The results associated with the weighting schemes indicate that PCIWS-MME outperformed both the simple mean-based MME and MI-based schemes, since it consistently exhibited lower RMSE and MAE while demonstrating a higher correlation with the observed data. Furthermore, the study used the proposed multimodel ensemble data from PCIWS-MME to calculate standardized drought indices under WMASPI. To assess long-term drought trends, results obtained by trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test indicate that, in the short term (3–12 time scales), trends are generally weak and statistically insignificant, except for SSP1&lt;span&gt;(-)&lt;/span&gt;2.6, which exhibits a slight but significant decreasing trend at certain intervals. In the medium term (24-time scale), all scenarios show decreasing trends, with SSP5&lt;span&gt;(-)&lt;/span&gt;8.5 displaying the most pronounced decline. Over the long term (48-time scale), all three scenarios demonstrate statistically s","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 8","pages":"3285 - 3309"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144934783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revolutionizing Forecasting with Deep Data Assimilation for Lorenz-63 Model","authors":"Prashant Kumar,&nbsp;Pathik Patel,&nbsp;A. K. Varma","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03769-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03769-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Earth science has embraced the application of deep learning (DL) across various fields. The research aimed to enhance the Analog Data Assimilation (AnDA) approach by integrating a DL technique. This involved using a representative catalog of the dynamical model to rebuild the system dynamics. The outcome of this was the development of the Deep Data Assimilation (DeepDA) technique, which uses ensemble-based assimilation methods like the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and Particle Filter (PF) along with DL to model system dynamics. To achieve this, an artificial recurrent neural network with a long short-term memory (LSTM) architecture was utilized for data-driven forecasting. To assess the effectiveness of DeepDA as compared to the AnDA model-driven assimilation methods, a series of numerical experiments were conducted using the chaotic dynamical model Lorenz-63. The results demonstrated that DeepDA exhibits highly efficient computational capabilities and satisfactory prediction accuracy and skills compared to AnDA. </p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 8","pages":"3205 - 3217"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144934706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-Modal Geophysical Characterization of Chromite Deposits in the Sittampundi Igneous Layered Complex, Tamil Nadu, India","authors":"Subhendu Mondal,&nbsp;Sanjit Kumar Pal,&nbsp;Arindam Guha,&nbsp;Rajwardhan Kumar","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03751-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03751-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Chromite, a crucial source of metallic chromium, plays a vital role in a nation’s industrial and economic development. The Sittampundi Layered Complex (SLC) in southern India, an Archean-layered igneous complex, hosts chromitite deposits interlayered with anorthosite, gabbro, and pyroxenite, making it geologically significant. This study addresses a gap in chromite exploration in the SLC, applying a combined analysis of ground gravity, magnetic, very low-frequency electromagnetic (VLF-EM), electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and self-potential (SP) data along three profiles. Data were systematically collected, processed, and analyzed to delineate subsurface chromitite bodies. Residual gravity and magnetic anomalies, coupled with SP inverted model and VLF-EM current density pseudo-sections, successfully identified high-density, conductive zones corresponding to chromitite mineralization. ERT sections revealed low-resistivity anomalies, further corroborating the results revealed by other methods. The integrated analysis of these geophysical methods provided consistent horizontal extensions and depth estimates of chromitite deposits across all profiles, with the highest depth range of 1 m to 60 m and the most frequent depths around 15 to 16 m. SP inverted model indicates that chromitite bodies in the SLC exhibit horizontal cylindrical geometry with shallow depth. Anomaly pattern correlations across multiple methods confirm the presence of chromite-rich zones, including probable new concealed zones. Notably, 2D forward modeling of residual gravity suggests deeper extensions of chromitite between 100 and 200 m. Integrated analysis of five geophysical methods corroborating each other has significantly enhanced the accuracy of subsurface investigations for chromite exploration in the SLC and proven its efficacy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 8","pages":"3139 - 3166"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144934700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-focus Imaging Under Complex Surface and Structure","authors":"Liyan Zhang,&nbsp;Ang Li","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03750-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03750-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Improving the imaging accuracy of geological formations under dual complex conditions (including complex surfaces and structures) is essential for precisely illustrating structural morphology and understanding reservoir characteristics. The multi-focus imaging is a real surface imaging method that takes into account signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and resolution. Drawing upon the principles of paraxial ray theory and Hubra's two-wavefront theory, this approach employs a global optimization inversion algorithm to determine the radii and exit angles of the two wavefronts. Furthermore, it incorporates a non-hyperbolic travel time formula for accurate correction. By combining receiving channels from different CMP channels within the same Fresnel band radius, this method effectively enhances both the SNR and resolution of seismic data. The multi-focus imaging technique is a surface imaging method that considers both SNR and resolution. Drawing upon the principles of paraxial ray theory and Hubra's two-wavefront theory, this approach employs a global optimization inversion algorithm to determine the radii and exit angles of the two wavefronts. Furthermore, it incorporates a non-hyperbolic travel time formula for accurate correction. By combining receiving channels from different CMP channels within the same Fresnel band radius, this method effectively enhances both SNR and resolution of seismic data.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 8","pages":"3091 - 3105"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144934703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nonlinear Analysis of Hydroclimatic Variability in Pakistan Using ITA and IPTA Methods","authors":"Ahmad Hassan Syed,&nbsp;Mehwish Shafi Khan","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03741-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03741-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The impacts of climate change on hydroclimatic variables (HV) in the form of untimely rainfall or increasing temperature are well known and of great concern. This paper aims to analyse trend variations and identify the possible intrinsic nonlinear impact of HV on one another. For this purpose, trend variations are assessed for monthly temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river flow at the Chitral River at Chitral and the Indus River at Gilgit and Tarbela (river flow only), Pakistan, using the Mann–Kendall (MK), Sen’s slope, and nonparametric approaches: innovative trend analysis (ITA) and innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA). The IPTA approach specifically examines the potential intrinsic nonlinear contribution of HV to the hydroclimatic cycle using statistical quantities average (AVG) and standard deviation (STD) in this paper. Moreover, MK analysis identified a trend in 20 out of 108 months, while ITA identified trends for the majority of the 95 months. ITA indicated impacts of temperature and precipitation on river flow during monsoon at Chitral and Gilgit, respectively, while their mixed impacts are observed post-monsoon at both stations. Overall, IPTA indicates uniformity in the behaviour of evapotranspiration with temperature at Chitral and Gilgit. Furthermore, STD polygons indicated possible impacts of temperature and precipitation in enhancing the river flow at the beginning of and during the monsoon at Gilgit, respectively. Additionally, IPTA plots of both AVG and STD reveal the strong seasonal pattern of actual river flow variation at all stations. These results will be beneficial for predicting irregular trends in HV for adapting climate change mitigation technology for urban, agriculture, and water resource planning sectors.</p><h3>Graphical abstract</h3><div><figure><div><div><picture><source><img></source></picture></div></div></figure></div></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 8","pages":"3255 - 3283"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144934782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}