pure and applied geophysics最新文献

筛选
英文 中文
Evaluation of Earthquake Cycle Progression for Major Cities in Turkey Using Nowcasting Approach 用临近预报方法评价土耳其主要城市地震周期演变
IF 2.1 4区 地球科学
pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2026-08-29 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-026-04088-8
Sonu Devi, Sumanta Pasari
{"title":"Evaluation of Earthquake Cycle Progression for Major Cities in Turkey Using Nowcasting Approach","authors":"Sonu Devi,&nbsp;Sumanta Pasari","doi":"10.1007/s00024-026-04088-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-026-04088-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Turkey lies at the junction of the Arabian, Anatolian, and Eurasian plates, making it one of the most seismically active regions globally. Timely seismic risk assessment is essential for effective disaster preparedness and mitigation. To provide a data-driven evaluation of regional earthquake hazard, we implement an area-based earthquake nowcasting framework for 24 major cities in Turkey using seismicity records from 1970 to 2025. The method employs natural time analysis, in which the cumulative counts of small-magnitude events between successive large earthquakes are used to quantify the evolving state of the seismic cycle. To model the natural times, eight reference probability distributions are evaluated. Among them, the Weibull probability distribution provides the best fit and therefore, it is used to compute the Earthquake Potential Score (EPS). The EPS quantifies the ongoing seismic-cycle progression on a scale from 0 to 100%. The resulting EPS values for M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes span from 29% to 84%, with high scores observed in cities such as Antalya (84%), Adiyaman (80%), Gaziantep (80%), Urfa (Şanlıurfa) (79%), İzmir (77%), and Kayseri (76%), indicating more advanced stages of the earthquake cycle. In contrast, lower EPS values in Trabzon (29%), Erzurum (34%), Kastamonu (49%), and Karabük (51%) suggest comparatively limited progression. Overall, these results provide a quantitative and easily interpretable snapshot of the current seismic state across Turkey, supporting relative hazard prioritization and preparedness planning in a tectonically complex region.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"183 9","pages":"4431 - 4447"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148986976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Integrated Application of Microseismic Sounding and HVSR Methods for Subsurface Fault Detection in the North Tabriz Region, Iran 微震测深与HVSR方法在伊朗北大不里士地区地下断层探测中的综合应用
IF 2.1 4区 地球科学
pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2026-08-29 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-026-04087-9
Ata Rezaei Fard, Ramin Vafaei Poursorkhabi, Ahmad Zarean, Mikail Yosefzadeh Fard, Rouzbeh Dabiri
{"title":"Integrated Application of Microseismic Sounding and HVSR Methods for Subsurface Fault Detection in the North Tabriz Region, Iran","authors":"Ata Rezaei Fard,&nbsp;Ramin Vafaei Poursorkhabi,&nbsp;Ahmad Zarean,&nbsp;Mikail Yosefzadeh Fard,&nbsp;Rouzbeh Dabiri","doi":"10.1007/s00024-026-04087-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-026-04087-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Seismic hazard assessment before earthquake occurrence is a critical component of risk mitigation in urban environments, particularly in seismically active metropolitan areas such as Tabriz, Iran. One of the foundational steps in detailed seismic micro-zonation is the accurate identification and characterization of seismic sources, including active and blind faults. This study integrates geotechnical and passive geophysical methods to delineate fault zones in the northern Tabriz region, with a focus on detecting the North Tabriz Fault and associated blind faults concealed beneath Quaternary alluvial deposits. Two passive seismic techniques, the Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio method and the Micro-seismic Sounding Method, were employed to process ambient vibration data collected along two profiles. The joint interpretation of the results, in conjunction with geological and geomorphological information, enabled the identification of several subsurface anomalies. Notably, the subsurface imaging revealed clear signatures of the North Tabriz Blind Fault and other previously unmapped faults. The findings demonstrate a strong correlation between passive seismic data, geological observations, and geoelectrical surveys, validating the reliability and effectiveness of the Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio method and the Micro-seismic Sounding Method for detecting subsurface faults in complex tectonic settings. </p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"183 9","pages":"4499 - 4515"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148986843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Real-Time Seismic Intensity Prediction Framework Based on Machine Learning for Earthquake Early Warning 基于机器学习的地震烈度实时预测框架
IF 2.1 4区 地球科学
pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2026-08-29 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-026-04100-1
Hui Zhang, Li Gang, Jiaolei Zhang, Yuhong Ma, Yu Dinghao, Zhiqian Dong
{"title":"A Real-Time Seismic Intensity Prediction Framework Based on Machine Learning for Earthquake Early Warning","authors":"Hui Zhang,&nbsp;Li Gang,&nbsp;Jiaolei Zhang,&nbsp;Yuhong Ma,&nbsp;Yu Dinghao,&nbsp;Zhiqian Dong","doi":"10.1007/s00024-026-04100-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-026-04100-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Real-time estimation of seismic intensity provides a critical basis for earthquake early warning (EEW) and emergency response. Most current methods estimate seismic intensity by relying only on one or a few parameters extracted from the P-wave without systematic feature selection, potentially neglecting essential characteristics from the ground motion (GM) records, such as amplitude and frequency-domain features. To address this issue, a real-time seismic intensity prediction framework based on machine learning is proposed to predict seismic intensity based on GM records obtained from the Kyoshine Network (K-Net) from 2010 to 2018. A sorting importance technique is proposed to assess 24 candidate parameters to eliminate redundancy and identify an optimal parameter combination, enhancing both model accuracy and computational efficiency. To validate the accuracy and generalization ability of the proposed method, earthquakes occurring between 2019 and 2021 are assumed to be new events and used as a verification case dataset. The results demonstrate that the optimized models achieved an accuracy above 90% for time windows of 3 s and longer, while lower accuracy and larger dispersion were observed in the first 1–2 s after P-wave arrival. Compared with models trained using all candidate parameters, the optimized models improve the efficiency of feature calculation, model training, and prediction by approximately factors of two, ten, and two, respectively, while maintaining comparable prediction performance. Finally, an actual seismic event is selected, and three earthquake early warning (EEW) decision thresholds are defined to further evaluate the model performance. These results highlight the promising potential of the proposed method for predicting seismic intensity during emergency response in real time.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"183 9","pages":"4517 - 4543"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148986981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Investigation of Seismic Site Characterization and Post-Disaster Urbanization Behavior of Van Province Van省地震场地特征与灾后城市化行为研究
IF 2.1 4区 地球科学
pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2026-08-29 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-026-04104-x
Oğuzhan Göverçile, Talha Sarıcı, Mustafa Özcan, Murat Sezik, Bahadir Ok
{"title":"Investigation of Seismic Site Characterization and Post-Disaster Urbanization Behavior of Van Province","authors":"Oğuzhan Göverçile,&nbsp;Talha Sarıcı,&nbsp;Mustafa Özcan,&nbsp;Murat Sezik,&nbsp;Bahadir Ok","doi":"10.1007/s00024-026-04104-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-026-04104-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Earthquakes can cause serious damage in residential areas. Thus, various engineering disciplines investigate the causes of this damage and develop new methods based on findings. Furthermore, engineering calculations are of vital importance in urban planning. In this context, this study characterizes the seismicity of Van province through Gutenberg–Richter a- and b-values derived from a two-decade earthquake catalogue (2005–2026). It then maps liquefaction potentials, bearing capacity values, and soil classifications for the study area covering the central districts of Van province, using data obtained from micro-zoning research reports of Van province. The results obtained were mapped using geographic information systems, and the performance of the interpolated surfaces was assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation. The spatial findings were compared with pre- and post-earthquake satellite imagery, and changes in built-up area were quantified for four selected regions to examine post-disaster urbanization. The declustered catalogue yielded a magnitude of completeness of 2.6, a b-value of 1.074 ± 0.065 and an a-value of 5.19 (3.86 on an annual basis), indicating a seismically active region dominated by low-to moderate magnitude events. Low bearing capacity values and liquefaction potential (FS &lt; 1.1) extending to depths of 9 m were identified along the Lake Van shoreline, coinciding with near-surface groundwater and low shear-wave velocities. Reduction in built-up area recorded in the satellite imagery was concentrated within geotechnically unsuitable zones, and reconstruction subsequently occurred within the same areas at comparable or greater densities. These findings highlight the importance of integrating geotechnical analyses into urban-planning and post-disaster reconstruction decisions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"183 9","pages":"4479 - 4498"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148986984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Physics-Guided Bi-LSTM Networks for Seismic Magnitude Forecasting: Performance and Limitations in the Zagros-Makran Transition Zone 物理导向的Bi-LSTM地震震级预报网络:Zagros-Makran过渡带的性能和局限性
IF 2.1 4区 地球科学
pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2026-08-20 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-026-04077-x
Marzieh Khalili, Ali Fotoohi
{"title":"Physics-Guided Bi-LSTM Networks for Seismic Magnitude Forecasting: Performance and Limitations in the Zagros-Makran Transition Zone","authors":"Marzieh Khalili,&nbsp;Ali Fotoohi","doi":"10.1007/s00024-026-04077-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-026-04077-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Forecasting earthquake magnitudes within the complex seismotectonic framework of the Zagros-Makran Transition Zone (ZMTZ) presents a formidable challenge. This study evaluates the performance and limitations of a probabilistic, physics-guided deep learning framework. Moving beyond \"black-box\" approaches, we integrate a Bi-Directional LSTM (Bi-LSTM) network with a Self-Attention mechanism, conditioned on time-dependent geophysical precursors, specifically, temporal <span>(b)</span>-value variations and cumulative radiated seismic energy. To mitigate the over-confidence bias inherent in deterministic models, a Monte Carlo Dropout strategy is applied for stochastic inference. This approach quantifies epistemic uncertainty, transforming point-estimates into probabilistically bounded predictions for robust hazard assessment. Trained on a homogenized crustal catalog (1998–2023, <span>({M}_{c}ge 2.85)</span>), the framework achieves an overall RMSE of 0.5283. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests confirm that this physics-guided architecture statistically outperforms classical baselines (ARIMA, Random Forest, Vanilla LSTM), particularly for events <span>({M}_{w}ge 4.0)</span> (<span>(p&lt;0.05)</span>). However, in-depth evaluation reveals a \"regression to the mean\" effect; while the 1D sequential architecture tracks continuous baseline stress accumulation effectively, it exhibits conservative peak predictions for extreme events (<span>({M}_{w}ge 4.5)</span>). This behavior is attributed to catalog data starvation and highly non-linear transitions where uncaptured 3D spatial stress-transfer mechanisms dominate. Explainability via SHAP confirms that the network logically prioritizes dynamic stress parameters over static geographic coordinates. The uncertainty estimates provide a useful measure of predictive variability; however, the conservative predictions observed for larger events highlight the limitations of the present one-dimensional sequence-based framework. These results suggest that future studies should evaluate richer spatiotemporal representations and additional geophysical constraints to improve magnitude forecasting for rare, larger events.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"183 9","pages":"4465 - 4478"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148986893","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sparse Regional Gravity Field Modeling by Greedy SRBF 基于贪婪SRBF的稀疏区域重力场建模
IF 2.1 4区 地球科学
pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2026-08-20 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-026-04083-z
Xun Zhang, Guobin Chang, Hefang Bian, Huachao Yang, Nijia Qian, Yuanfei Ren, Haonan Feng, Lubin Chang
{"title":"Sparse Regional Gravity Field Modeling by Greedy SRBF","authors":"Xun Zhang,&nbsp;Guobin Chang,&nbsp;Hefang Bian,&nbsp;Huachao Yang,&nbsp;Nijia Qian,&nbsp;Yuanfei Ren,&nbsp;Haonan Feng,&nbsp;Lubin Chang","doi":"10.1007/s00024-026-04083-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-026-04083-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Spherical Radial Basis Function (SRBF) is one of the mainstream methods for regional gravity field modeling. Its traditional solution relies on Tikhonov regularization, which requires inverting a high-dimensional square matrix whose dimension equals the number of SRBF. Additionally, constructing a large-scale design matrix during the prediction phase incurs significant computational and storage costs, making it difficult to handle large-scale datasets. To address this bottleneck, this paper treats SRBF as an overcomplete dictionary and reformulates the gravity field modeling problem as a sparse coefficient recovery problem. Two classic greedy algorithms—Matching Pursuit (MP) and Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (OMP)—are introduced to solve for the sparse combination coefficients, thereby fundamentally avoiding the inversion of high-dimensional matrices and the construction of large-scale design matrices. Using the complex mountainous area of Colorado, USA, as the study area, we conduct experiments that fuse ground and airborne gravity data with 37,351 SRBF nodes generated based on the Reuter grid. The results show that when the OMP algorithm reaches a sparsity of approximately 3000 non-zero coefficients, the external validation standard deviation relative to the GSVS17 benchmark points is 2.19 cm, which is comparable to the accuracy achieved by Tikhonov regularization. Under a similar sparsity level, the MP algorithm achieves an accuracy of 2.37 cm. Both algorithms produce a highly sparse model—only about 8% of the total SRBF coefficients are non-zero-yielding substantial reductions in storage and prediction cost while maintaining geoid-level accuracy. Additional experiments conducted in the Auvergne region (presented in the Appendix) further validate the general applicability of the proposed Greedy SRBF method across different geographical areas and SRBF densities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"183 9","pages":"4567 - 4583"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148986894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Multi-Scale Hydroclimatic Variability and Flash-Flood Regime Shifts in a Semi-Arid Basin 半干旱流域多尺度水文气候变率与暴洪期变化
IF 2.1 4区 地球科学
pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2026-08-20 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-026-04079-9
Sabri Berhail, Fayçal Djellouli, Quoc Bao Pham
{"title":"Multi-Scale Hydroclimatic Variability and Flash-Flood Regime Shifts in a Semi-Arid Basin","authors":"Sabri Berhail,&nbsp;Fayçal Djellouli,&nbsp;Quoc Bao Pham","doi":"10.1007/s00024-026-04079-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-026-04079-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>One of the most significant risks in semi-arid areas is flash flooding, especially in the Mekerra Basin (northwestern Algeria), where urbanization, land-use changes, and variable climatic conditions are increasing the risk. This research examines multi-scale variability in rainfall and runoff, and hydrological regime dynamics, using long-term monthly time series of rainfall and runoff (49 years, 1966–2014). The analysis begins with the Moving Trend Method (MTM) to identify sub-period variability, and then separates the hydrograph using the Lyne-Hollick digital filter to identify the direct runoff and baseflow components. Standardized hydrological indices are then determined at intervals of 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-months, including Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), Standardized Direct Runoff Index (SDRI), and Standardized Baseflow Index (SBFI). Wavelet analysis was employed to examine scale-dependent dynamics, and a hybrid clustering method combining Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with K-Means and Fuzzy C-Means algorithms is used to delineate hydrological regimes. The decomposition of streamflow shows a strong spatial contrast in the basin. The downstream conditions at Sidi Bel Abbes are characterized by the rapid runoff and, therefore, a high flash-flood potential, whereas the mid-basin flows at Sidi Ali Ben Youb are dominated by baseflow and thus reflect the long-term contributions of groundwater. At El Hacaiba, there is transitional hydrology in upstream conditions. Wavelet analysis shows that runoff flashiness is captured in the high-frequency SDRI oscillations, and multi-annual SBFI signals are more concentrated on the groundwater-mediated flow control. The three hydrological regimes identified using hybrid clustering are those dominated by runoff, those influenced by baseflow, and those characterized by low-magnitude flows with clear upstream–downstream heterogeneity. The findings offer a scale-sensitive, spatially explicit perspective on the variability of hydroclimatic conditions, which justify flash-flood and drought risk forecasting and the sustainable management of water resources in data-limited semi-arid basins.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"183 9","pages":"4751 - 4778"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148986895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Correction: Lightning Behavior and Its Relationship with Topography, Precipitation, and Land Use in the São Francisco River Basin 更正:<s:1>弗朗西斯科河流域闪电行为及其与地形、降水和土地利用的关系
IF 2.1 4区 地球科学
pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2026-08-20 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-026-04089-7
Samuel Amorim Silva, Weber Andrade Gonçalves, Lizando Pereira de Abreu, Douglas Leonardo Sales Pedrosa, Evandro Moimaz Anselmo, Enrique Vieira Mattos, Moisés Elias Nascimento Rufino da Costa, Glenda Yasmin Pereira de Carvalho, Bruno Felipe Moreira Lima, Daniele Tôrres Rodrigues, Vitória Régia Silva de Souza, Thiago Gonçalves da Silva
{"title":"Correction: Lightning Behavior and Its Relationship with Topography, Precipitation, and Land Use in the São Francisco River Basin","authors":"Samuel Amorim Silva,&nbsp;Weber Andrade Gonçalves,&nbsp;Lizando Pereira de Abreu,&nbsp;Douglas Leonardo Sales Pedrosa,&nbsp;Evandro Moimaz Anselmo,&nbsp;Enrique Vieira Mattos,&nbsp;Moisés Elias Nascimento Rufino da Costa,&nbsp;Glenda Yasmin Pereira de Carvalho,&nbsp;Bruno Felipe Moreira Lima,&nbsp;Daniele Tôrres Rodrigues,&nbsp;Vitória Régia Silva de Souza,&nbsp;Thiago Gonçalves da Silva","doi":"10.1007/s00024-026-04089-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-026-04089-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"183 9","pages":"4937 - 4937"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00024-026-04089-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148986896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantifying the Contribution of Tectonic Stress to Landslide Development in the Xianshuihe Fault Area, Southeastern Tibetan Plateau 青藏高原东南部鲜水河断裂带构造应力对滑坡发育贡献的量化
IF 2.1 4区 地球科学
pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2026-08-13 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-026-04086-w
Chenhao Ren, Junshan Xu, Chong Xu
{"title":"Quantifying the Contribution of Tectonic Stress to Landslide Development in the Xianshuihe Fault Area, Southeastern Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Chenhao Ren,&nbsp;Junshan Xu,&nbsp;Chong Xu","doi":"10.1007/s00024-026-04086-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-026-04086-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Tectonic stress is a critical factor influencing landslide development; however, quantitative studies on its mechanical effects remain limited. The Xianshuihe Fault area in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau exhibits significant dynamic movements, complex topography, and frequent earthquake-induced landslides. In this study, tectonic and topographic stress were calculated for 16 zones–eight near faults and eight farther away. A systematic analysis was conducted on the relationships between tectonic and topographic stress magnitudes in accordance with the characteristics of the existing landslides (e.g., slope azimuth, length, and angle). The results indicate that the landslide movement azimuths in near-fault zones generally align with the fault dip and deviate slightly (within approximately 30°) towards the orientation of the maximum horizontal principal stress (<i>S</i><sub><i>H</i></sub>). Landslides in most near-fault and far-fault zones show azimuths within 0°–45° towards the <i>S</i><sub><i>H</i></sub> orientation, suggesting the influence of the tectonic stress field. The magnitude of tectonic stress portion (<i>P</i><sub><i>Tect</i></sub>) suggests that tectonic stress is approximately 40–90% of the initial stress magnitudes. Specifically, <i>P</i><sub><i>Tect</i></sub> values in near-fault zones show the range of 60–90%, while those in far-fault zones are 10–30% lower, falling within the range of 40–80%. Our findings suggest that tectonic stress initially balances counteracting topographic stress. The reduction of tectonic stress due to external factors decreases <i>P</i><sub><i>Tect</i></sub> from 80–90% to 40–60%, disturbing the balanced stress state and likely causing landslides. Our results quantitatively demonstrate the role of tectonic stress in landslide development.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"183 9","pages":"4545 - 4565"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148986225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Applicability Analysis of Runoff Downscaling and Baseflow Separation Methods in the Upper Vakhsh River Basin 径流降尺度与基流分离方法在瓦赫什河上游流域的适用性分析
IF 2.1 4区 地球科学
pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2026-08-12 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-026-04074-0
Mengwei Song, Hailong Liu, Xuhong Gong, Chang Sun, Xi Chen, Tie Liu, Aminjon Gulakhmadov, Firdavs Shaimuradov
{"title":"Applicability Analysis of Runoff Downscaling and Baseflow Separation Methods in the Upper Vakhsh River Basin","authors":"Mengwei Song,&nbsp;Hailong Liu,&nbsp;Xuhong Gong,&nbsp;Chang Sun,&nbsp;Xi Chen,&nbsp;Tie Liu,&nbsp;Aminjon Gulakhmadov,&nbsp;Firdavs Shaimuradov","doi":"10.1007/s00024-026-04074-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-026-04074-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Short-term scales (e.g., daily scale) are of great importance for the development of hydrological models and the effective analysis of hydrological conditions. However, there remain knowledge gaps in the regional applicability and selection of runoff downscaling methods. This study considered the concept of baseflow volume balance and aimed to explore the applicability of runoff downscaling methods and baseflow separation methods in the upper Vakhsh River basin, and quantifies their temporal variation characteristics. The results demonstrate that the Chapman Maxwell filtering method provides optimal performance for comparative evaluation of baseflow separation in the basin. During the period from 1995 to 2017, the BFI showed a significant downward trend. In the upper Vakhsh River basin, the water balance concept based on baseflow is more reliable in the selection of runoff downscaling methods. Runoff duration curves (FDCs) and hydrological evaluation indicators cannot directly determine the advantages and disadvantages of most runoff downscaling methods, while the volume balance of runoff and runoff process lines could highlight the advantages of mean-preserving 3rd-order spline interpolation (MP3S) and mean-preserving 2nd-order spline interpolation (MP2S). MP3S performs best in the test method based on baseflow volume balance for the upper Vakhsh River basin. The results of this study supplement the selection of runoff downscaling methods and provide important support for water resource management and optimization.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"183 9","pages":"4729 - 4750"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148986432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
相关产品
×
本文献相关产品
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术官方微信
小红书