pure and applied geophysics最新文献

{"title":"Introduction to the Special Issue Geoscience in Active Areas","authors":"U. Riccardi, J. Arnoso, D. Gómez-Ortiz, C. Del Negro, F. Sigmundsson","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03684-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03684-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 3","pages":"953 - 959"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143818134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Contribution to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment and Its Uncertainty for Northeastern Algeria","authors":"M. Hamdache,&nbsp;J. A. Peláez,&nbsp;J. Henares","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03676-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03676-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This contribution uses two distinct gridded seismicity models to present a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Northeastern Algeria. Both local regional models and the next generation of attenuation (NGA) equations supplied the ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) that have been used. A logic-tree approach is applied to depict the epistemic uncertainty, or the uncertainty in the evaluation caused by the lack of knowledge about the model used. Expert judgment associated with the available acceleration recorded data was used to evaluate the weights assigned to each of the distinct GMPEs. In the final stage, the study offers estimated ground-motion parameters for soil classes B, B/C and C (National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program) with return periods of 475 and 975 years. Along with uniform hazards spectra for the examined soil conditions and return periods, seismic hazard curves for the main cities are also included. Among the computed ground-motion characteristics, the mean horizontal peak ground acceleration values for the B/C soil types in Setif have been estimated to be 0.30 ± 0.05 g and 0.44 ± 0.05 g for the two considered return periods (475 and 975 years), respectively. Using the exceedance and occurrence deaggregation methodologies, for some locations, a deaggregation investigation was also performed in terms of three parameters (magnitude, distance and azimuth) in order to look at how specific sources influenced the hazard level. This has made it possible to identify the earthquake that contributes most in terms of the considered parameters in the specified locations, known as the \"control\" or \"modal\" earthquake.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 2","pages":"439 - 471"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638397","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the Utility of Ensemble Rainfall Forecasts Over River Basins in India","authors":"Anumeha Dube,&nbsp;Raghavendra Ashrit","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03682-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03682-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Rivers form a lifeline for the agriculture based economy in India, but recent heavy rainfall events have caused major floods in the rivers resulting in loss of life and property. In order to accurately forecast the stream flow from the rivers firstly, an accurate forecast of rainfall over the river basins (RB) is required. Until recently, for operational flood forecasting in India, rainfall forecasts from deterministic models were used. Deterministic models often result in incorrect forecasts as they do not contain the uncertainty information. Ensemble prediction systems (EPS) sample this uncertainty and can add value to the deterministic forecasts. This study seeks to address the question ‘<i>whether the ensemble rainfall forecasts over RBs in India are ready for hydrological applications?</i>’ In order to answer this and generate more confidence in using probabilistic rainfall forecasts from an EPS for hydrological purposes the accuracy of the forecasts has to be established. For this purpose, we have carried out an in-depth verification of the probabilistic rainfall forecasts obtained from the NCMRWF EPS (NEPS) over 8 major RBs of India during the southwest monsoon (SWM) seasons of 2018 to 2021. The basin averaged rainfall forecasts from NEPS and observations from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) are used in this study. It was seen from the study that the model possesses good skill in predicting low to moderate rainfall over Himalayan Rivers like Ganga and peninsular rivers like Tapi, Narmada, Cauvery, and Krishna. This is seen in terms of a low Brier Score (BS), high Brier Skill Score (BSS) and low Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), as well as lower RMSE in the ensemble mean. The skill of the model is further confirmed by comparing the RMSE in the mean with the spread in the members. The best match between the RMSE in ensemble mean and spread is seen for Ganga RB. The Relative Economic Value (REV) determines the economic value of forecasts and it shows that over Ganga, Mahanadi, and Narmada the rainfall forecasts show the maximum economic value. However, the model shows relatively poorer skill in predicting rainfall over the Brahmaputra RB located in northeastern India. From this study it can be concluded that NEPS model has reasonably good skill in predicting rainfall over RBs in northern and peninsular parts of India and it would be beneficial to use these forecasts for forecasting floods.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 2","pages":"775 - 796"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantitative Risk Assessment of a Tsunami Induced by the Averroes Fault (Alboran Sea): Case of Martil City, the Mediterranean Coast of Morocco","authors":"Mohamed Outiskt,&nbsp;Abdelkarim Tadibaght,&nbsp;Kamal Agharroud,&nbsp;Maria Ana Baptista,&nbsp;Pinto Ramos João Francisco,&nbsp;Soufiane Tichli,&nbsp;Khadija Aboumaria","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03681-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03681-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Mediterranean coast of Morocco is potentially exposed to tsunamis, such as the one triggered by the Algerian Djijelli earthquake in 1856, also known as the most destructive event in the region. This type of coastal hazard could have disastrous effects on several cities along the Mediterranean coast, such as Martil, which is located near the main sources of tsunamis in the Alboran Sea and receives large numbers of national and international tourists each year. This work intends to simulate the potential tsunami of Averroes faults, corresponding to a magnitude Mw = 7.0 earthquake and to estimate the property and life losses. We used the Nonlinear Shallow Water with Nested Grids (NSWING) code integrated into Mirone software to simulate the tsunami phenomenon, combining a series of bathymetric and topographic grid layers with an initial water elevation generated using Mansinha formulations and assuming instantaneous seabed motion. For this investigation, we considered a scenario associated with a potential seismic source for the Averroes fault located in the Alboran Sea. The simulation results obtained reveal that the maximum water height at the regional scale of the Alboran Sea exceeds 1 m. On the other hand, on a local scale in the study area of the Martil city, the flow depth varies between 0.5 and 7 m, with a flooded surface area of 70 km². In addition, the arrival time of the first tsunami waves exceeds 40 min. Material losses could reach 3.72 M$, while the loss of life could be as high as 31,000 victims. The results should be useful to policymakers in developing tsunami protection and raising coastal community awareness of tsunami risks in Morocco.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 2","pages":"311 - 331"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flow-by-Flow Paleofield and Virtual Dipole Moment Analysis in the Mandla Lobe, Eastern Deccan Volcanic Province","authors":"Bhuvan K. Tamta,&nbsp;Vamdev Pathak,&nbsp;J. P. Shrivastava,&nbsp;Arun Kumar Gupta,&nbsp;Girish Ch. Kothyari","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03679-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03679-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Understanding Earth’s geodynamo processes is challenging due to limited data and the inaccessibility of Earth’s deep interior. Investigations of the Virtual Dipole Moment (VDM) and magnetic field intensity (paleofield) from continental flood basalts, such as the Deccan Volcanic Province (DVP), serve as valuable proxies for understanding past magnetic field behavior and core-mantle boundary (CMB) interactions. This study presents the first attempt to determine flow-by-flow paleofield and VDM analysis through progressive AF and thermal demagnetization of 36 distinct lava flows from the Mandla lobe, eastern DVP. Reliable mean VDM and paleofield values were calculated based on specimens that met reliability criteria and were globally correlated with the PINT database. The mean VDM value obtained from the eastern DVP is 1.58 ± 0.43 × 10²² Am², which aligns with VDM values reported from the Koyna region, western DVP, indicating a persistently weak Earth’s magnetic field across the DVP. The lowest VDM value of 0.62 ± 0.19 × 10²² Am², obtained from eight physically distinct lava flows of intermediate polarity, suggests these flows erupted during periods of weak Earth’s magnetic field, implying non-sudden polarity reversals.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 2","pages":"571 - 586"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal Diffusion Variability of Injection-Induced Seismicity in Enhanced Geothermal Systems","authors":"Georgios Michas","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03680-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03680-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Injection-induced seismicity represents a major challenge for the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). To effectively mitigate the associated seismic hazard, a better understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution of induced seismicity and its efficient modeling are required. Towards that end, a stochastic framework within the continuous time random walk (CTRW) theory is used to make inferences regarding the diffusion properties of injection-induced seismicity in three cases of hydraulic stimulations in EGS. The analysis of seismicity within the CTRW context indicates multi-scaling variations in the waiting times distributions and in the evolution of the mean squared distance of seismicity with time, both associated with the co- and post-injection periods, respectively. During fluid-injections, an almost Poissonian waiting times distribution is followed by broad distributions during post-injection, enhancing long-term clustering effects and inter-earthquake interactions. At the same time, the rate of triggered earthquake diffusion drastically drops during the post-injection period for all the studied cases. Such properties may have implications on the main driving mechanisms of injection-induced seismicity in EGS, highlighting the transition from a dominant pressure-driven triggering mechanism during fluid-injections, to a mixed mechanism after termination of injections, where stress transfer effects and inter-earthquake interactions become more important.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 2","pages":"405 - 417"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00024-025-03680-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rupture Kinematics of the 2021 Miyagi-Oki Earthquakes: Repeated Seismic Events in High-Velocity Bodies of the Japan Trench Subduction Zone","authors":"Jiaqi Qian,&nbsp;Wenbo Zhang,&nbsp;Ao Zheng","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03673-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03673-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The 2021 Miyagi-Oki earthquakes (<i>M</i>_w 7.1 and <i>M</i>_w 6.8) occurred in rapid succession within the Japan Trench subduction zone, one of the most seismically active regions globally. To investigate the rupture processes and interactions between these events, we performed the joint inversions of strong-motion and teleseismic waveforms. The inversion results for the <i>M</i>_w 7.1 Miyagi-Oki earthquake reveal a bilateral rupture along a megathrust fault. A large asperity in the southern section of the seismogenic fault extends from deep portions to the top edge, with a maximum slip of 1.4 m. In contrast, the <i>M</i>_w 6.8 Miyagi-Oki earthquake exhibits a unilateral rupture with a peak slip of about 1.1 m. Aftershocks following both earthquakes generally occurred at shallower depths than the initial rupture, likely influenced by focal depth, fault geometry, and fluid migration. The recurrence of earthquakes in the Miyagi-Oki region reflects the periodic release of accumulated strain on high-velocity bodies due to interseismic locking and stress loading from nearby large earthquakes. Coulomb stress analysis suggests that the 2021 <i>M</i>_w 7.1 Fukushima-Oki earthquake may have triggered the subsequent 2021 <i>M</i>_w 7.1 Miyagi-Oki earthquake, with both events contributing to the <i>M</i>_w 6.8 Miyagi-Oki earthquake. These findings enhance our understanding of earthquake triggering mechanisms and provide key insights into future seismic hazards in the Japan Trench subduction zone.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 2","pages":"333 - 346"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nature’s Guidance: Employing Bio-inspired Algorithm and Data-Driven Model for Simulating Monthly Maximum and Average Temperature Time Series in the Middle Black Sea Region of Türkiye","authors":"Okan Mert Katipoğlu,&nbsp;Zeynep Özge Terzioğlu,&nbsp;Bilel Zerouali","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03678-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03678-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study compares the performance of various models in predicting monthly maximum and average temperatures across three distinct regions: Samsun, Amasya, and Çorum. The evaluated models include Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Shuffled Frog Leaping Algorithm coupled with ANN (SFLA-ANN), Firefly Algorithm coupled with ANN (FFA-ANN), and Genetic Algorithm coupled with ANN (GA-ANN). In setting up the models, the dataset was divided into 70% for training and 30% for testing, and the outputs of the models were evaluated using various graphical and statistical indicators. The model with the smallest root mean square error (RMSE) value was selected for the maximum and average temperature predictions. Accordingly, for maximum and average temperature predictions, SFLA-ANN (RMSE of 2.93) and GA-ANN (RMSE of 3.55) in Samsun, GA-ANN (RMSE of 2.91) and GA-ANN (RMSE of 2.50) in Amasya and GA-ANN (RMSE of 2.97) and GA-ANN (RMSE of 2.50) in Çorum performed better than the other models, respectively. In addition, for the maximum temperature prediction with the highest accuracy, the R² value of the SFLA-ANN model in Samsun was 0.89. In contrast, the R² values of the GA-ANN model in Amasya and Çorum were determined as 0.91 and 0.91, respectively. Similarly, it was observed that the R² values of the GA-ANN model for the average temperature prediction with the highest accuracy at Samsun, Amasya and Çorum stations were 0.78, 0.92 and 0.92, respectively. Overall, the GA-ANN consistently demonstrated superior performance in predicting both maximum and average temperatures across all three regions, as evidenced by its consistently low RMSE values. These findings provide valuable insights into selecting effective models for temperature prediction tasks in different geographical regions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 2","pages":"877 - 901"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00024-025-03678-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimation of Hazard-Dominating Scenario in Seismic Demand Analysis","authors":"Mohammad-Rashid Salimi,&nbsp;Azad Yazdani","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03672-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03672-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study presents an innovative approach to enhance performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) by combining reliability-based methods with seismic hazard disaggregation. PBEE aims to reduce damage and losses in structures subjected to stochastic excitations, such as earthquakes and wind turbulence. Unlike conventional probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation, which may not fully address structural performance requirements, this approach focuses on disaggregating seismic demand within the Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA) framework, making it a vital component of seismic risk analysis. This involves identifying the ground motion intensity measures contributing to specific structural response levels. The proposed methodology combines stochastic ground motion modeling with random vibration theory to estimate the failure probability of both linear and nonlinear systems under various seismic scenarios characterized by magnitude (<i>M</i>) and distance (<i>R</i>). Compared to traditional approaches requiring extensive record scaling and nonlinear time history analysis, this method leverages simulated excitations, offering significant computational efficiency. Results show that failure probability for linear systems remains relatively constant across scenarios, whereas nonlinear systems exhibit a strong dependence on the selected scenario, highlighting their sensitivity to varying seismic inputs. This research emphasizes the critical role of scenario selection in seismic demand analysis and introduces three cases—modal, worst, and weighted scenarios—for estimating failure probabilities. The findings provide practical insights for seismic risk assessment and structural design optimization, particularly in regions with sparse recorded ground motion data. This framework offers an efficient and robust solution for advancing PBEE practices in seismic engineering.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 2","pages":"473 - 489"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Feasibility of Utilizing Continuous Records from Weak And Strong-Motion Recorder Channels of Permanent Stations for Horizontal To Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) Analysis During Calm-Day Conditions","authors":"Mustafa Senkaya","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03669-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03669-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The proposed paper assesses the feasibility of using continuous records acquired from weak and strong-motion recorder channels of permanent earthquake observation stations under calm-day conditions for the HVSR method. The analyses were conducted on 60 tri-axial ambient noise data through HN channels from strong-motion recorders and BH, HH (or EH) channels from weak-motion recorders from 25 stations belonging to various soil and topography classes in the INGV network of Italy. The accuracy and reliability of the proposed HVSR curves were evaluated by benchmarking them with predefined original HVSR curves for each station, using statistical metrics such as the Pearson correlation coefficient and mean absolute error (MAE). The findings demonstrate that weak-motion recorder channels, especially HH and EH, acquire ambient noise, which serves as the primary data for the HVSR method, with higher PSD levels than strong-motion channels due to their inherently lower self-noise threshold. Therefore, while HVSR curves derived through BH channels indicate an average correlation of 84% and MAE of 12%, HH-EH channels demonstrate 91% and %12, respectively. Conversely, HN channels exhibit lower correlation (28%) and higher MAE (31%). Furthermore, topography and soil class influence PSD values, with T1 and C classes exhibiting the highest levels. However, variations in performance across different topographic and soil classes are less pronounced. The analyses suggest that the channel type plays a more critical role in HVSR analysis. This finding highlights the importance of selecting the appropriate channel for accurate HVSR analysis using permanent stations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 2","pages":"537 - 555"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00024-025-03669-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}