pure and applied geophysics最新文献

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Application of Different Mapping Techniques for Precipitation and Temperature-Based Meteorological Drought Methods in the Black Sea Region of Türkiye 基于降水和温度的气象干旱方法不同制图技术在乌克兰黑海地区的应用
IF 2.1 4区 地球科学
pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2026-08-12 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-026-04059-z
Ali Demir Keskiner, Oguz Simsek, Muhammed Sait Gocer
{"title":"Application of Different Mapping Techniques for Precipitation and Temperature-Based Meteorological Drought Methods in the Black Sea Region of Türkiye","authors":"Ali Demir Keskiner,&nbsp;Oguz Simsek,&nbsp;Muhammed Sait Gocer","doi":"10.1007/s00024-026-04059-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-026-04059-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Assessing both the temporal and spatial variations of drought is vital for identifying drought-prone areas within a region. This study aims to determine the suitability of different meteorological drought analysis methods for the Black Sea Region, the most mountainous part of Turkey, and to identify the most appropriate mapping technique for these methods. In this context, meteorological drought analysis of the region was performed using De Martonne (I<sub>DM</sub>), De Martonne-Gottman (I<sub>DMG</sub>), Erinç (I<sub>m</sub>), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) methods. Based on the median values of the long-term index series for each method, the spatial distribution of index values was modeled using Ordinary Kriging (OK), Ordinary CoKriging (OCK), Inverse Distance Weighted Interpolation (IDW) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) techniques. The performance of the mapping techniques was evaluated using five statistical metrics. The OK, RBF, and IDW methods provided the best estimates for mapping the SPI, RDI, and Im drought indices, respectively. In contrast, the OCK method showed the best performance in mapping both I<sub>DM</sub> and I<sub>DMG</sub>, according to the statistical test criteria. The eastern part of the study area has the lowest drought risk across all methods and periods, and contains index values corresponding to the highest rainfall class. Accordingly, drought risk is low in the eastern part of the region, as it is the rainiest part of the study region. The SPI and RDI methods performed well in defining extreme drought occurrences; conversely, the I<sub>m</sub>, I<sub>DM</sub>, and I<sub>DMG</sub> methods better captured the spatial distribution of extreme wetness events, especially in Rize and its surroundings—the highest precipitation region of Turkey.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"183 9","pages":"4857 - 4880"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148986431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Enhancing Projections of Maximum and Minimum Temperatures Over the Catchment of Ujjani Dam, India by Formulating Multi-Model Ensembles Using Machine Learning Algorithms and Conventional Methods 通过使用机器学习算法和传统方法制定多模型集合来增强对印度乌贾尼大坝集水区最高和最低温度的预测
IF 2.1 4区 地球科学
pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2026-08-10 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-026-04072-2
Jarpala Venkatesh, Ganesh D. Kale
{"title":"Enhancing Projections of Maximum and Minimum Temperatures Over the Catchment of Ujjani Dam, India by Formulating Multi-Model Ensembles Using Machine Learning Algorithms and Conventional Methods","authors":"Jarpala Venkatesh,&nbsp;Ganesh D. Kale","doi":"10.1007/s00024-026-04072-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-026-04072-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Reliable climate projections require the selection of highly skilful global climate models (GCMs) to be used in multi-model ensemble (MME) formulation, as this approach effectively reduces model uncertainty and systematic biases. Thus, in the current study, 27 NEX-GDDP CMIP6 GCMs are ranked for maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) by employing TOPSIS method at each grid point followed by use of group decision making approach for deriving aggregated rankings of GCMs over the Ujjani Dam Catchment. The top three ranked GCMs selected for Tmax are BCC-CSM2-MR, FGOALS-g3, CanESM5 and that for Tmin are MIROC-ES2L, KIOST-ESM, CanESM5. The GCMs ranked in the top 50% for Tmax and Tmin variables are employed to formulate MMEs by using ML algorithms namely random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBOOST), support vector machine, and adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) along with use of traditional methods namely multiple linear regression (MLR), ensemble mean (EM), and reliability ensemble averaging (REA). The MMEs constructed using AdaBoost, RF, MLR, XGBOOST, EM, and REA have shown superior performance, with predicted Tmin and Tmax values aligning closely with the observed records. The developed MMEs are then employed to project future Tmax and Tmin under two distinct shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) namely SSP245 and SSP585 for assessing changes in aforesaid variables across the three distinct periods: 2015–2044, 2045–2074, and 2075–2100. Results indicated a consistent increase in both Tmax and Tmin during all future time frames, with the most pronounced increments occurring during 2075–2100 under the SSP585 scenario.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"183 9","pages":"4799 - 4831"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148986538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Lead-Time Sensitivity of GFS Forecasts for the Deadly 2011 Nova Friburgo Disaster (Brazil): A Hindcast-Based Synoptic and Thermodynamic Assessment 2011年巴西新弗里堡特大灾害GFS预报的提前期敏感性:基于后方差的天气学和热力学评估
IF 2.1 4区 地球科学
pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2026-08-10 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-026-04078-w
Fabricio Polifke, Uziel de Oliveira Coelho
{"title":"Lead-Time Sensitivity of GFS Forecasts for the Deadly 2011 Nova Friburgo Disaster (Brazil): A Hindcast-Based Synoptic and Thermodynamic Assessment","authors":"Fabricio Polifke,&nbsp;Uziel de Oliveira Coelho","doi":"10.1007/s00024-026-04078-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-026-04078-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The catastrophic rainfall of 11–12 January 2011 triggered hundreds of landslides and flash floods in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, with Nova Friburgo among the affected municipalities. This paper assesses how the predictability of this event depends on forecast lead time, focusing on the deterministic Global Forecast System (GFS) and the representation of the spatiotemporal structure of extreme precipitation in complex terrain. A hindcast experiment is performed using GFS initializations relative to 18 UTC on 11 and 12 January 2011, with rainfall verified against rain gauges in Nova Friburgo. GOES-12 infrared imagery is used to contextualize convective development, and synoptic dynamic and thermodynamic fields are analyzed to link forecast behavior to environmental evolution. All runs reproduce a broad-scale signal of enhanced precipitation over the coastal-mountain transition, but the local 6-h and 24-h rainfall maxima are sensitive to displacement errors. Skill is not monotonic with lead time: the intermediate-range run better captures the local core than the shorter- and longer-range runs, which displace their cores away from the municipality. The synoptic environment is consistently depicted across forecasts, with a surface low deepening to nearly 998 hPa, 850-hPa specific humidity of roughly 15 g/kg over the moisture-convergence axis toward Southeast Brazil, and an upper-level cyclonic vortex supporting divergence aloft; this configuration is corroborated by Galeão radiosonde soundings showing CAPE close to 660 J/kg ahead of the event, rising to about 2200 J/kg approaching the peak rainfall period. Mesoscale positioning of the moisture-convergence maximum relative to topography controls where extreme rainfall is realized. These results point to the need for verification approaches that separate timing from displacement, and for complementary tools such as ensembles and convection-permitting models to better characterize lead-time-dependent uncertainty in extreme rainfall forecasts over complex terrain.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"183 9","pages":"4881 - 4907"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00024-026-04078-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148986539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Statistical and Wavelet-Based Trend Analysis of Regional Hydro-Climatic Variables for the Cauvery River Basin, India 印度高韦里河流域水文气候变量的统计和小波趋势分析
IF 2.1 4区 地球科学
pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2026-08-10 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-026-04073-1
Malluraj C. Hitni, Ganesh D. Kale
{"title":"Statistical and Wavelet-Based Trend Analysis of Regional Hydro-Climatic Variables for the Cauvery River Basin, India","authors":"Malluraj C. Hitni,&nbsp;Ganesh D. Kale","doi":"10.1007/s00024-026-04073-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-026-04073-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Four aspects of the recent trends and most influential periodicities affecting these trends in the regional time series (TS) of maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature and rainfall (RF) over the Cauvery River Basin are evaluated in this work by using some graphical and statistical methods, which is not performed by any reviewed study. Various statistical tests and graphical techniques are used for trend analysis and discrete wavelet transform is used to identify the dominant periodicities by which regional trends are getting affected. The regional TS generally exhibit rising trends with positive Sen's slope values. However, statistically significant trends are observed only for a limited number of time scales for the regional temperatures time series, while no statistically significant trend is observed in the regional RF series. These findings indicated that, although rising trends are evident, their statistical significance is not uniform across all temporal scales. For annual and seasonal time series of aforesaid variables, trends are found to be mostly dominated by short-term periodicities like 2-year and 4-year while monthly time scale trends are found to be influenced mostly by 8-month periodicity.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"183 9","pages":"4779 - 4797"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148985351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Systematic Comparison of Hypocenter and Centroid Parameters of Earthquakes Along the South American Plate Boundary 南美板块边界地震震源和质心参数的系统比较
IF 2.1 4区 地球科学
pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2026-08-03 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-026-04062-4
Nivika Singh, Sanjay K. Verma, Sahil Gawande, Vipul Silwal
{"title":"Systematic Comparison of Hypocenter and Centroid Parameters of Earthquakes Along the South American Plate Boundary","authors":"Nivika Singh,&nbsp;Sanjay K. Verma,&nbsp;Sahil Gawande,&nbsp;Vipul Silwal","doi":"10.1007/s00024-026-04062-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-026-04062-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We present a statistical and empirical analysis of the earthquake source parameters from the International Seismological Centre (ISC) and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalogs. Source parameter data are collected for the subduction zones of South America and the Nazca Plate for the time frame 1976 to 2016. The source parameter data for this region are compiled to develop a series of empirical relationships among hypocenter location, centroid attributes, depth, moment magnitude, azimuth, earthquake origin time, rupture length, and hypocenter–centroid distance. In this analysis, only events common to both catalogs are included. In the correlation of different source parameters, we observed the following notable results: (1) hypocenter–centroid distance is constant with moment magnitude, but rises gradually beyond higher magnitudes; (2) origin-time residual gradually increases with moment magnitude, but grows linearly with a higher slope for higher magnitudes; (3) azimuths of the distance vector cluster predominantly around <span>(250^circ)</span>. Additional regression and spatial analyses highlight systematic patterns of seismic behavior unique to this subduction boundary.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"183 9","pages":"4449 - 4464"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148986535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Seismic Random Noise Suppression with Wavelet-Inspired Invertible Network 基于小波启发的可逆网络抑制地震随机噪声
IF 2.1 4区 地球科学
pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2026-07-29 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-026-04056-2
Yan Zhou, Ying Rao, Zhencong Zhao, Yongfeng Zou
{"title":"Seismic Random Noise Suppression with Wavelet-Inspired Invertible Network","authors":"Yan Zhou,&nbsp;Ying Rao,&nbsp;Zhencong Zhao,&nbsp;Yongfeng Zou","doi":"10.1007/s00024-026-04056-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-026-04056-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Random noise attenuation is an essential process in seismic data processing, with  a major impact on subsequent workflows such as seismic interpretation. Because of the variety of frequency bands and apparent velocities, suppressing seismic random noise is challenging. Conventional techniques for suppressing seismic random noise include vector-median filtering, low-rank approximation and sparsity-domain based techniques. Degradation of effective seismic signals is inevitable, especially in areas with extremely complex structures. Machine learning is widely used in seismic data processing, offering high efficiency and automation. However, the black-box nature of machine learning algorithms limits their application in seismic data processing. To address this problem, we propose applying the multi-scale Wavelet-inspired Invertible Network (WIN) to seismic random noise suppression. The network has the following advantages: (1) It combines multiple lifting invertible neural networks, which ensures perfect reconstruction of the original signal; (2) The multiple lifting invertible neural networks act as multiple scales of the original signal and resemble denoising in the wavelet domain in a more efficient way; (3) The denoising performance of the proposed network can be controlled by choosing the noise level. A numerical study on field seismic data shows the advantage of the neural network over conventional denoising algorithms.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"183 8","pages":"3907 - 3920"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148751626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Indice-Based Characterization of Precipitation Variability Using Multiple Trend Analysis Methods in the High-Rainfall Eastern Black Sea Basin, Türkiye 基于多趋势分析方法的东黑海盆地降水变率指数表征[j]
IF 2.1 4区 地球科学
pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2026-07-29 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-026-04035-7
Cihangir Koycegiz, Kemal Saplıoğlu, Meral Buyukyildiz
{"title":"Indice-Based Characterization of Precipitation Variability Using Multiple Trend Analysis Methods in the High-Rainfall Eastern Black Sea Basin, Türkiye","authors":"Cihangir Koycegiz,&nbsp;Kemal Saplıoğlu,&nbsp;Meral Buyukyildiz","doi":"10.1007/s00024-026-04035-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-026-04035-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate change-driven shifts in precipitation regimes have intensified the frequency of meteorological disasters, directly impacting water resources and agricultural sustainability. This study investigated the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in the Eastern Black Sea Basin (EBSB), the most humid basin in Türkiye, using data from nine meteorological stations for the 1965–2021 period. Five key indices were evaluated: the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI), Modified Fournier Index (MFI), Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), and the annual count of days with daily precipitation ≥ 20 mm (R20). Temporal trends were analyzed using the classic Mann–Kendall (MK) test alongside two innovative approaches: the Combination of Wilcoxon Test and Scatter Diagram (CWTSD) and the Onyutha Trend Test (OTT). The findings demonstrate that precipitation patterns align closely with index variability. Eastern stations recorded the highest MFI, SDII, and R20 values, reflecting higher rainfall totals, whereas the lowest values were observed in the central part of the basin. Western stations exhibited intermediate levels, surpassing the central region but remaining below eastern thresholds. PCI exhibited an opposite pattern, with maximum values in the central of the basin and lower values in the east and west. RAI lacked a distinct spatial distribution. Trend analysis revealed a consistent downward trend at the Akcaabat station for both precipitation and indices, while most other stations exhibited increasing trends. The results from both innovative and classical methods were largely consistent, enhancing the reliability of the findings. Significant upward trends (at the 5% level) were detected in MFI, RAI, and annual precipitation, especially across in eastern and western stations. These outcomes emphasize the pronounced regional variability in precipitation regimes and provide critical insights for mitigating hydrological risks under a changing climate.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"183 8","pages":"4337 - 4359"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148752231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modal Filtering of Depth-Dependent Stress Drop in a Finite Seismogenic Layer: An Analytical Source Model for Effective Rupture Thickness 有限发震层中随深度应力降的模态滤波:有效破裂厚度的解析源模型
IF 2.1 4区 地球科学
pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2026-07-29 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-026-04052-6
Antonino D’Alessandro
{"title":"Modal Filtering of Depth-Dependent Stress Drop in a Finite Seismogenic Layer: An Analytical Source Model for Effective Rupture Thickness","authors":"Antonino D’Alessandro","doi":"10.1007/s00024-026-04052-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-026-04052-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The finite thickness of the seismogenic layer is a fundamental constraint on earthquake rupture and seismic moment release. In many source models, however, this constraint is incorporated in a largely geometric manner, implicitly assuming a direct mapping between depth-dependent stress drop and fault slip. Here we develop an analytical earthquake source model that explicitly accounts for the elastic boundary conditions governing deformation within a finite-thickness seismogenic layer. The problem is formulated as a two-dimensional antiplane elastic boundary-value problem with a traction-free surface and an elastically coupled basal boundary. Depth-dependent stress-drop distributions are prescribed along the fault plane, while the resulting slip field is obtained through modal decomposition of the vertical elastic problem. This formulation reveals that imposed stress-drop profiles are mechanically filtered by a discrete set of vertical eigenmodes whose structure is controlled by the boundary conditions. We show that the fundamental vertical mode dominates depth-integrated quantities such as slip and seismic moment, whereas higher-order modes contribute oscillatory components that are progressively suppressed by elastic stiffness. Consequently, different depth-dependent stress-drop tapers, despite sharing the same geometric thickness and stress-drop scale, produce systematically different slip distributions and seismic moments. To quantify this effect, we introduce the concept of an effective rupture thickness, which represents the fraction of the seismogenic layer that efficiently contributes to coseismic deformation. The resulting framework generalizes classical seismic moment scaling relations by demonstrating that the thickness term entering the scaling law is an emergent mechanical property rather than a purely geometric parameter.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"183 8","pages":"3939 - 3955"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00024-026-04052-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148752228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimation of the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude, mmax—Choosing the Correct Time Interval for the Maximum Observed Magnitude 估计最大地震震级,mmax——为最大观测震级选择正确的时间间隔
IF 2.1 4区 地球科学
pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2026-07-29 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-026-04057-1
Andrzej Kijko, Petrus Johannes Vermeulen
{"title":"Estimation of the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude, mmax—Choosing the Correct Time Interval for the Maximum Observed Magnitude","authors":"Andrzej Kijko,&nbsp;Petrus Johannes Vermeulen","doi":"10.1007/s00024-026-04057-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-026-04057-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study complements a prior study by Kijko (2004) that provides a statistical estimator of the area-characteristic maximum earthquake magnitude, <span>({m}_{max})</span>. This estimator is highly regarded and widely used. However, as this study explains, such estimators are often misapplied owing to the misinterpretation of the time period of the occurrence of <span>({m}_{max}^{obs})</span>, which is the largest <i>observed</i> earthquake. Accordingly, here, we examine the sources of such misunderstandings, which can lead to misuse of the procedure and, therefore, significantly affect the estimates of <span>({widehat{m}}_{text{m}text{a}text{x}})</span> and the overall seismic hazard indicators. As we show in an illustrative example, an assessment of <span>({m}_{max})</span> for the area surrounding Cape Town in South Africa, there is a substantial difference between correct and incorrect estimates of the maximum possible earthquake magnitude resulting from the use of the incorrect time interval. Furthermore, we discuss some insights about the variability of the estimated <span>({m}_{max})</span>, noting that the misapplication considered here can lead to overestimation, whereas a lack of data can lead to underestimation. In addition, we provide recommendations for discerning when over- or underestimation could occur. We conclude that the best practice is to incorporate prior information and apply a Bayesian formalism when such information is available.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"183 8","pages":"3893 - 3906"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00024-026-04057-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148752230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Full-Waveform Inversion Cycle-Skipping Mitigation with Dynamic Time Warping, Part 1: A Method for a Proximity Analysis Between the Current and the Observed Data 带动态时间翘曲的全波形反演周期跳变减缓,第1部分:电流与观测数据接近分析方法
IF 2.1 4区 地球科学
pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2026-07-29 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-026-04058-0
Claus Eikmeier, Jaime Souza, Carlos A. M. Chaves, Ernani Volpe
{"title":"Full-Waveform Inversion Cycle-Skipping Mitigation with Dynamic Time Warping, Part 1: A Method for a Proximity Analysis Between the Current and the Observed Data","authors":"Claus Eikmeier,&nbsp;Jaime Souza,&nbsp;Carlos A. M. Chaves,&nbsp;Ernani Volpe","doi":"10.1007/s00024-026-04058-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-026-04058-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Full-Waveform Inversion (FWI) is a seismic imaging technique employed to achieve detailed subsurface representations by leveraging seismic data. The method solves an optimisation problem to minimise discrepancies between modelled and observed data. However, FWI poses inherent challenges due to the complexity of its non-linear optimisation process and the non-convex nature of the objective function. Typically, gradient-based optimisation algorithms, such as L-BFGS-B, are used to search for the global minimum. Nevertheless, there exists no guarantee of convergence to the global minimum, potentially yielding inaccurate results. To circumvent the risk of converging to local minima, either an initial model closely resembling the true solution must be provided, or strategies to prevent cycle skipping should be employed. This paper is Part 1 of a study that explores the potential of using the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) methodology to address cycle-skipping with a focus on underinvestigated approaches. We introduce the Dynamic Time Warping Proximity Analysis (DTW-PA), a procedure designed to provide a qualitative estimation of the current model’s suitability for FWI, while in Part 2, we present a method for mitigating cycle-skipping itself. Here, a time-domain multiscale strategy was employed to tackle cycle-skipping challenges. Our results indicate that DTW-PA offers low qualitative insights into the adequacy of the initial model for running FWI without cycle-skipping. However, it facilitates informed decision-making regarding the application of frequency filters for multiscale step building, reducing the number of steps needed and minimising time and computational costs.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"183 8","pages":"3957 - 3976"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00024-026-04058-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148752229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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