pure and applied geophysics最新文献_第2页

Prediction of Precipitation-Temperature Data and Drought Assessment of Turkey with Stochastic Time Series Models 利用随机时间序列模型预测土耳其降水-温度数据并进行干旱评估

IF 1.9 4区地球科学

pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2024-08-19 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-024-03559-0

Ahmet Iyad Ceyhunlu, Gokmen Ceribasi

{"title":"Prediction of Precipitation-Temperature Data and Drought Assessment of Turkey with Stochastic Time Series Models","authors":"Ahmet Iyad Ceyhunlu, Gokmen Ceribasi","doi":"10.1007/s00024-024-03559-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-024-03559-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Throughout the geological history of Earth, there have been many changes in the climate system due to natural and external factors. In the past, it can be said that changes in climate were caused by natural causes, while today they are largely caused by human activities. Turkey is among the countries that will be affected by climate change. Therefore, In this study, a stochastic time series model was constructed to forecast the precipitation and temperature data of Turkey between 2020 and 2050. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models were used to take into account the relationship between the data and seasonality factors. In addition, the most appropriate model for each station was established separately. The accuracy of the predicted data was tested by correlation test (r) and root mean square error (RMSE) test. As a result of the study, the average r value for temperature data was 99% and RMSE value was calculated as 1.46. For precipitation data, the average r value was calculated as 66% and RMSE value as 34.6. In addition, in this study, drought models for Turkey until 2050 were established and spatial and temporal evaluation of these models were made. These models were obtained by analyzing the data of uniformly distributed stations over Turkey between 1990 and 2050 with standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Different time scales (SPEI<sub>3</sub>, SPEI<sub>6</sub>, SPEI<sub>9</sub> and SPEI<sub>12</sub>) were used in drought analysis. As a result of this study, drought return interval maps of Turkey and drought maps between 1990 and 2050 were created.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"181 9","pages":"2913 - 2933"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142209931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Rapid Moment Magnitude (Mwp) Calculation for UK Broadband Seismic Stations Using Teleseismic Waves 利用远震波计算英国宽带地震台的快速矩震级 (Mwp)

IF 1.9 4区地球科学

pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2024-08-19 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-024-03557-2

Timur Tezel, Gillian R. Foulger, Jon G. Gluyas

{"title":"Rapid Moment Magnitude (Mwp) Calculation for UK Broadband Seismic Stations Using Teleseismic Waves","authors":"Timur Tezel, Gillian R. Foulger, Jon G. Gluyas","doi":"10.1007/s00024-024-03557-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-024-03557-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Determining the magnitude of an earthquake rapidly and correctly is essential to starting simulations to evaluate the potential for tsunami generation and early warning for tsunami-prone countries and rapid response, considering countries that lie in seismically active regions. Although the UK does not have a high degree of tsunami hazard, the UK seismic network can estimate the moment magnitude for large earthquakes which will occur around the globe. This study aimed to test the UK Seismological Network Broadband Seismic Stations to calculate the P-wave moment magnitude (M<sub><b>wp</b></sub>) using teleseismic waves. The standard way to calculate the M<sub><b>wp</b></sub> is using the P-wave portion of a seismic wave recorded at different epicentral distances. We selected twenty-five seismic events with a magnitude greater than 6.5M<sub><b>w</b></sub> and epicentral distances between 17 and 90 degrees. The main issue is selecting the P-wave portion of a seismic wave and using a trial P-wave velocity to estimate the M<sub><b>wp</b></sub>. We simplified the selection of a P-wave portion of seismic waves using a theoretical formula that works with epicentral distance, P-wave arrival time and an apparent P-wave velocity, which calculates the S-wave arrival time. The results show the variation between the Harvard centroid moment tensor (CMT—M<sub><b>w</b></sub>) and M<sub><b>wp,</b></sub> which is about ± 0.1 magnitude units in most events and ± 0.2 for some events. These results prove the M<sub><b>wp</b></sub> technique can be applied to the UK broadband seismic network broadband seismic stations and encourage the use of it immediately following a destructive earthquake anywhere in the world.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"181 9","pages":"2753 - 2763"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142210099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Hydro-meteorological Research Study in Madhya Pradesh, Central India: A Literature Review 印度中部中央邦的水文气象研究：文献综述

IF 1.9 4区地球科学

pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-024-03553-6

Sarita Tiwari, Ashok Biswal, Gajanan Ramteke

{"title":"Hydro-meteorological Research Study in Madhya Pradesh, Central India: A Literature Review","authors":"Sarita Tiwari, Ashok Biswal, Gajanan Ramteke","doi":"10.1007/s00024-024-03553-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-024-03553-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Water is a crucial and invaluable natural resource essential for humanity to sustain on Earth. Around 70% of the Earth’s surface is covered by salt water, which has the largest water volume, and just about 2.5% of fresh water is available for human consumption. The factors that control the spatio-temporal variability of these water resources are envisaged to be of importance. Hydrometeorology is the branch of science that deals with water resource management and understanding water availability by simultaneously using the principles of hydrology and meteorology. Extreme hydro-meteorological events like floods, droughts, and other hydro-meteorological calamities are impacting the region’s water resources. For a big state such as Madhya Pradesh, where the availability of hydro-meteorological data is critical in dealing with the management of water resources not only for the state but for the other neighbouring states, those aquifers and rivers are fed by the cross-boundary rivers of the state. Several research activities that have been carried out in Madhya Pradesh in hydrometeorology and allied disciplines by various researchers are reviewed and presented in this paper. This research paper also discussed the analysis of hydrometeorology services and highlighted the significance of hydrometeorology research at regional level. Apart from this, the major challenges faced in hydro-meteorological research in Madhya Pradesh are also highlighted in the paper.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"181 9","pages":"2935 - 2948"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142209930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impact of Convective and Land Surface Parameterization Schemes on the Simulation of Surface Temperature and Precipitation Using RegCM4.7 During Summer Period Over the DPR Korea 对流和陆面参数化方案对使用 RegCM4.7 模拟朝鲜夏季地表温度和降水的影响

IF 1.9 4区地球科学

pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-024-03490-4

Kum-Ryong Jo, Song-Ryong Kim, Ki-Song Pak, Hyok-Chol Kim, Yong-Sik Ham

{"title":"Impact of Convective and Land Surface Parameterization Schemes on the Simulation of Surface Temperature and Precipitation Using RegCM4.7 During Summer Period Over the DPR Korea","authors":"Kum-Ryong Jo, Song-Ryong Kim, Ki-Song Pak, Hyok-Chol Kim, Yong-Sik Ham","doi":"10.1007/s00024-024-03490-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-024-03490-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper has investigated the impact of convective parameterization schemes (CPS) and land surface models (LSM) on the simulation of summer climate over the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPR Korea) using the regional climate model (RegCM 4.7). The sensitivity experiments with two LSMs [Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) and Community Land Model (CLM 3.5)] and four CPSs (Grell, Emanuel, Grell over land and Emanuel over ocean (GL_EO), Emanuel over land and Grell over ocean (EL_GO)) at 30 km horizontal resolution are carried out in summer (from June to August) for 10 years (2001–2010) for this purpose. The simulation results are compared with the available observation data provided from the State Hydro-Meteorological Administration of the DPR Korea (SHMAK). The results show that summer mean circulation patterns (SMCP) and summer averaged surface temperature (SAST) is well captured for most of the simulations, but summer rainfall is not well represented by RegCM 4.7. The performance of the CLM3.5 scheme is better in all the simulations than the BATS scheme. Among the CPSs, the EL_GO scheme shows the smallest biases in the simulation of SAST and summer rainfall. The simulations using EL_GO with CLM3.5 shows the best performance in simulating the SAST and summer rainfall over the study region among the considered CPSs and LSMs. These results will be helpful to improve the prediction of climate change over the DPR Korea.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"181 8","pages":"2703 - 2715"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142209929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Vulnerability of Physical Infrastructure Network Components to Damage from the 2015 Illapel Tsunami, Coquimbo, Chile 有形基础设施网络组件易受 2015 年智利科金博伊拉佩尔海啸破坏影响的程度

IF 1.9 4区地球科学

pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2024-08-09 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-024-03550-9

James H. Williams, Ryan Paulik, Rafael Aránguiz, Alec Wild

{"title":"Vulnerability of Physical Infrastructure Network Components to Damage from the 2015 Illapel Tsunami, Coquimbo, Chile","authors":"James H. Williams, Ryan Paulik, Rafael Aránguiz, Alec Wild","doi":"10.1007/s00024-024-03550-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-024-03550-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study assesses physical infrastructure vulnerability for infrastructure network components exposed during the 2015 Illapel tsunami in Coquimbo, Chile. We analyse road and utility pole vulnerability to damage, based on interpolated and simulated tsunami hazard intensity (flow depth, flow velocity, hydrodynamic force and momentum flux) and network component characteristics. A Random Forest Model and Spearman’s Rank correlation test are applied to analyse variable importance and monotonic relationships, with respect to damage, between tsunami hazards and network component attributes. These models and tests reveal that flow depth correlates higher with damage, relative to flow velocity, hydrodynamic force and momentum flux. Scour (for roads and utility poles) and debris strikes (for utility poles) are strongly correlated with damage. A cumulative link model methodology is used to fit fragility curves. These fragility curves reveal that, in response to flow depth, Coquimbo roads have higher vulnerability than those analysed in previous tsunami event studies, while utility poles demonstrate lower vulnerability than with previous studies. Although we identify tsunami flow depth as the most important hydrodynamic hazard intensity metric, for causing road and utility pole damage, multiple characteristics correlate with damage and should also be considered when classifying infrastructure damage levels.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"181 8","pages":"2421 - 2445"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00024-024-03550-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141923852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Evaluation of Multi-Physics Ensemble Prediction of Monsoon Rainfall Over Odisha, the Eastern Coast of India 印度东海岸奥迪沙季风降雨多物理场集合预测评估

IF 1.9 4区地球科学

pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-024-03547-4

Anshul Sisodiya, Sandeep Pattnaik, Adrish Baneerjee

{"title":"Evaluation of Multi-Physics Ensemble Prediction of Monsoon Rainfall Over Odisha, the Eastern Coast of India","authors":"Anshul Sisodiya, Sandeep Pattnaik, Adrish Baneerjee","doi":"10.1007/s00024-024-03547-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-024-03547-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Selecting proper parameterization scheme combinations for a particular application is of great interest to Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model users. The goal of this research is to create an objective method for identifying a set of scheme combinations to form a Multi-Physics Ensemble (MPE) suitable for short-term precipitation forecasting over Odisha, India’s east coast state. In this study, five member ensembles for Cloud Microphysics (CMP) and Land Surface Model (LSM, conventional ensemble) are created, as well as an ensemble of the top five performing members (optimized ensemble) for 13 Monsoon Depressions (MD) and 8 Deep Depression (DD) cases. There are a total of 30 combinations (5 PBL * 5 CMP, 5 LSM with best PBL and CMP, and one with ISRO Land Use Land Cover data). WRF 4.1 is used to carry out simulations, which are initialized with ERA5 reanalysis data and have a 72-h lead time. Rainfall verification skill scores indicate that ensemble members perform significantly better than any deterministic model. Rainfall characteristics such as location, intensity, and time of occurrence are well predicted in ensemble members as measured by a higher correlation coefficient and a lower RMSE. Neighbourhood ensemble probability also demonstrates that ensemble members have a higher chance of detecting heavy to very heavy rainfall events with more spatial accuracy. The study also concludes that choice of parameterization also affects large-scale dynamical parameters (temperature, humidity, wind, hydrometeors) and thus associated rainfall. Ensemble members exhibited less bias in the composite analysis of large-scale parameters. Furthermore, a composite analysis of moisture budget components revealed that the convergence term is the most important component of moisture accumulation, resulting in rainfall during the monsoon low-pressure system. These findings indicate that the proposed method is an effective method for reducing bias in rainfall forecasts.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"181 8","pages":"2589 - 2611"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141969837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An Investigation of the Ultraviolet Aerosol Index and Angstrom Exponent and Their Relationship with Meteorological Parameters over Nigeria Using Satellite Remote Sensing 利用卫星遥感技术研究尼日利亚上空的紫外线气溶胶指数和安氏指数及其与气象参数的关系

IF 1.9 4区地球科学

pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-024-03545-6

Muhammad Khan, Salman Tariq, Zia Ul Haq

{"title":"An Investigation of the Ultraviolet Aerosol Index and Angstrom Exponent and Their Relationship with Meteorological Parameters over Nigeria Using Satellite Remote Sensing","authors":"Muhammad Khan, Salman Tariq, Zia Ul Haq","doi":"10.1007/s00024-024-03545-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-024-03545-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Aerosols have a significant impact on solar radiation, air quality deterioration, and climate change. To effectively assess the consequences of aerosols, we have to initially recognize the spatiotemporal distributions of their characteristics. This article uses OMI retrieved UVAI and Aqua MODIS retrieved AE data to analyze the spatiotemporal distributions and inter-annual trends of absorbing aerosol across Nigeria. Significant spatio-temporal variations in UVAI were observed high in northern and low in southern regions. The mean UVAI and AE over Nigeria shows an increasing and decreasing trend of 3.16% year<sup>−1</sup> and − 1.62% year<sup>−1</sup>. Annually, UVAI showed an increasing trend of 7.59%, 9.79%, 5.19%, 6.27%, 7.65%, 4.87%, 7.17%, 4.99%, 4.10%, and 6.73% over Delta, Niger, Edo, Sokoto, Kwara, Osun, Kogi, Ondo, Oyo, and Ogun states respectively whereas AE is decreasing at the rate of − 0.53% year<sup>−1</sup>, − 2.50% year<sup>−1</sup>, − 0.84% year<sup>−1</sup>, − 1.18% year<sup>−1</sup>, − 2.12% year<sup>−1</sup>, − 1.19% year<sup>−1</sup>, − 1.12% year<sup>−1</sup>, − 0.85% year<sup>−1</sup>, − 1.77% year<sup>−1</sup>, and − 1.06% year<sup>−1</sup> over Delta, Niger, Edo, Sokoto, Kwara, Osun, Kogi, Ondo, Oyo, and Ogun states respectively. UVAI was observed high during winter associated with dust storm activities. The HYSPLIT cluster analysis reveals the dominance of natural aerosols over northern and southern regions and Urban/industrial pollutants over the central regions of Nigeria. A strong positive correlation of UVAI with precipitation and temperature is observed in the northern regions of Nigeria. In accordance with the outcomes of this study, multiple methods such as planting more trees, improving fuel quality, etc. can be employed to lower the concentration of particle pollution.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"181 8","pages":"2651 - 2676"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141938410","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Atmospheric Dust Forced Changes in the Precipitation Distribution Over Indian Homogeneous Regions 大气尘埃迫使印度均质地区降水分布发生变化

IF 1.9 4区地球科学

pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2024-08-04 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-024-03548-3

Harshita Saxena, Vivek Kumar Pandey, Sushant Das

{"title":"Atmospheric Dust Forced Changes in the Precipitation Distribution Over Indian Homogeneous Regions","authors":"Harshita Saxena, Vivek Kumar Pandey, Sushant Das","doi":"10.1007/s00024-024-03548-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-024-03548-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In the present study, we have made an effort to examine the influence of dust aerosols on the precipitation over India, and six homogeneous rainfall zones of India during pre-monsoon (March to May) and monsoon (June to September) seasons. In this regard, a set of sensitivity experiments are performed using a regional climate model, namely, RegCM-4.7.0, for 11 years. Extensive analysis has been carried out to evaluate the model’s performance in simulating the mean precipitation, its variability (spatial and temporal), dust aerosol optical depth, and monsoonal wind. It is observed that the model has the potential to capture the distinct features like prevailing north westerlies with less precipitation during pre-monsoon and southwesterlies with more precipitation during monsoon season, with systematic differences in magnitude while compared against observation. High dust aerosol optical depth is found during pre-monsoon season over central northeast, west central and northeast parts of India. Dust significantly increases precipitation parts over southern peninsula, west central and northwest during the monsoon season due to increases in wind at 850 hPa facilitating moisture transport from Arabian Sea. Interestingly, it is also noticed that dust aerosols modulate the magnitude of extreme precipitation indices over India implying importance in including dust aerosols effects in the climate models.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"181 8","pages":"2677 - 2702"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141969039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Large Ozone Hole in 2023 and the Hunga Tonga Volcanic Eruption 2023 年的大臭氧洞和洪加汤加火山爆发

IF 1.9 4区地球科学

pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-024-03546-5

Michal Kozubek, Peter Krizan, Sunil Kumar Ramatheerthan, Jan Laštovička

引用次数: 0

Variability, Trends and Return Periods of Extreme Rainfall Events (EREs) over the North-Western Indian Himalayan Region (NW-IHR) 印度西北喜马拉雅地区（NW-IHR）极端降雨事件（EREs）的变化、趋势和重现期

IF 1.9 4区地球科学

pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-024-03542-9

Anup Upadhyaya, Abhishek K. Rai, Priyankar Kumar

{"title":"Variability, Trends and Return Periods of Extreme Rainfall Events (EREs) over the North-Western Indian Himalayan Region (NW-IHR)","authors":"Anup Upadhyaya, Abhishek K. Rai, Priyankar Kumar","doi":"10.1007/s00024-024-03542-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-024-03542-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Daily gridded rainfall data from 1901 to 2020, were used to study the seasonal variation of the Extreme Rainfall Events (EREs) and Cumulative Exceedance (CumExc) at the 95th and 99th percentile thresholds in the North-Western Indian Himalayan Region (NW-IHR). The Mann–Kendall and Modified Mann–Kendall tests were used to assess the trends in EREs across seasons, besides comparing the CumExc and frequency of EREs between 1961–1990 and 1991–2020. Additionally, return periods of CumExc were estimated to predict future rainfall intensities. Among the 49 NW-IHR districts, Bandipore (J&K) reported the highest EREs (> 95th percentile) during winter and pre-monsoon, Baramulla (J&K) during post-monsoon, and Pithoragarh (UK) during monsoon. At the 99th percentile, Lahaul & Spiti (HP) recorded the most number of EREs in winter, Bandipore (J&K) in pre-monsoon, Pithoragarh (UK) in monsoon, and Baramulla (J&K) in post-monsoon. The trends of EREs indicate a substantial increase (at > 99th percentile) for all seasons in most of the region. EREs intensity between 1991–2020 is significantly higher than 1961–1990, particularly in the northern region during winter. Nevertheless, during pre- and post-monsoon seasons, most areas experienced a decline in EREs and CumExc. Estimates of CumExc suggest that UK is likely to encounter higher intensities of rainfall extremes compared to HP, J&K, and Ladakh within a 5-year and 10-year return period. This study is crucial for understanding extreme weather events in a climate change-sensitive region, providing insights into EREs frequency, trends, and return periods, which can aid in predicting flash floods and facilitating effective planning and mitigation strategies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"181 8","pages":"2631 - 2650"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141776183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0