pure and applied geophysics最新文献

{"title":"Estimation of Diffusional Growth Rate and Reassessing Existing Parameterizations for Monsoon Precipitating Clouds: A Process-Based Approach","authors":"Moumita Bhowmik,&nbsp;Anupam Hazra,&nbsp;Suryachandra A. Rao,&nbsp;Lian-Ping Wang","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03686-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03686-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Quantitative prediction of the intensity of rainfall events (light or heavy) has remained a challenge in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. For the first time, the mean coefficient of diffusional growth rate (<span>(c_m)</span>) is calculated using a Eulerian-Lagrangian particle-based model on in situ airborne measurement data from the Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) during monsoon over the Indian sub-continent. The results show that <span>(c_m)</span> varies in the range of <span>(sim 0.25times 10^{-3} - 1.5times 10^{-3})</span> (cm <span>(s^{-1})</span>). The generic problem of overestimation of light rain in NWP models might be related to the choice of <span>(c_m)</span> in the model. It is also shown from a direct numerical simulation (DNS) experiment using small-scale model that relative dispersion (<span>(epsilon )</span>) is constrained with average values in the range of <span>(sim )</span> 0.2<span>(-)</span>0.37 (<span>(sim )</span> 0.1<span>(-)</span>0.26) in less humid (more humid) conditions. This is in agreement with in situ airborne observation (<span>(epsilon )</span> <span>(sim )</span> 0.36) and previous studies over the Indian sub-continent. The linear relationship between relative dispersion (<span>(epsilon )</span>) and cloud droplet number concentration (NC) is obtained using CAIPEEX. The present study compares different exciting parameterizations for the cloud-to-rain “autoconversion” and effective radius using a sophisticated parcel-DNS model guided by CAIPEEX observation. The dispersion-based ‘autoconversion’ and effective radius parameterization schemes for the Indian region must be useful for the calculation of Indian summer monsoon precipitation in the general circulation model. The present study also provides valuable guidance for parameterizing the effective radius, which is important for the radiation scheme.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 4","pages":"1755 - 1782"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143883602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Introduction to the Special Issue Geoscience in Active Areas","authors":"U. Riccardi,&nbsp;J. Arnoso,&nbsp;D. Gómez-Ortiz,&nbsp;C. Del Negro,&nbsp;F. Sigmundsson","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03684-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03684-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 3","pages":"953 - 959"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143818134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Observational Study on the Variability and Climatology of Arunachal Pradesh","authors":"A. Sandeep,&nbsp;Sunit Das,&nbsp;V. H. Arun","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03685-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03685-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the climate trends, variability, and short-term climatology of Arunachal Pradesh (ARP), leveraging data from a network of Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) and manual observations. Important meteorological variables such as air temperature (<i>T</i>), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (WS), wind direction (WD), pressure (P), and rainfall (RF) have been assessed. A very good correspondence is seen between two rainfall estimates (correlation coefficient value <i>R</i> = 0.77) for the study region, whilst during the monsoon season 10–20% higher <i>R-</i>values were registered. The plain regions of ARP experienced hot, humid conditions with gusty winds, while the hilly regions were cooler, and hazier conditions with lower wind speeds. Predominantly westerly winds during cooler seasons, while the warmer seasons saw a shift to south-westerly to westerly winds, consistent with the broader monsoonal wind patterns in the region. Rainfall analysis suggested that during the winter (64% isolated, 21% scattered), pre-monsoon (33% isolated, 37% scattered), monsoon (41% scattered, 32% fairly widespread), and post-monsoon season (67% isolated, 18% scattered) rainfall days were recorded. Overall, 70% of the region’s rainfall comes from light-to-moderate rain while 30% is from heavy-to-extremely heavy rainfall, however, the contribution of heavy rainfall increased to 45% during the monsoon season. The study region has a significant long-term negative trend in annual rainfall with a slope rate of − 0.11 mm/year for the period from 1976 to 2022. Interestingly, the data shows a positive trend in recent years (2016–2022), with a slope rate of 0.405 mm/year. The frequency of heavy rainfall events has also increased, with a slope rate of 0.22/year, highlighting a growing trend towards more frequent intense rainfall. Overall, this study provides the current state of the climate for the study area, but the erratic trends point towards strengthening of the observational network.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 4","pages":"1737 - 1754"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143883549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Influence of Model Space Subdivision on Three-Dimensional Magnetic Anomaly Inversion","authors":"Bairu Zhao,&nbsp;Houpu Li,&nbsp;Henglei Zhang","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03683-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03683-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Three-dimensional (3D) magnetic inversion plays a critical role in magnetic exploration by providing information about the spatial location, geometric shape, and distribution of physical parameters of anomalous bodies. The size of the model space subdivision determines the inversion resolution, while there is currently no consensus regarding the selection of subdivision accuracy for model space, which hampers its practical application. By discussing the relationship between subdivision accuracy and the effectiveness of 3D inversion, this study aims to provide a basis for the selection of the size of the model space subdivision. Multiple sets of theoretical magnetic models are used for 3D inversion with different size of the model space subdivisions, and the correlation coefficient between the inverted magnetization model and the theoretical magnetization model is used to evaluate the inversion accuracy. The results showed that the inversion accuracy continuously increases as the model subdivision spacing decreases to 0.5 times of the observed data spacing, and further improvement in the subdivision accuracy affect slightly the inversion accuracy. Therefore, it is suggested that the model subdivision spacing for inversion could be half of the observed data spacing. The applications of the model tests and field magnetic data from a mining area demonstrated that the inverted magnetization obtained using the size of the model space subdivision of 0.5 times the observed data spacing are significantly better than those obtained using the general 1 time the observed data spacing.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 4","pages":"1513 - 1524"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143883728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Contribution to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment and Its Uncertainty for Northeastern Algeria","authors":"M. Hamdache,&nbsp;J. A. Peláez,&nbsp;J. Henares","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03676-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03676-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This contribution uses two distinct gridded seismicity models to present a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Northeastern Algeria. Both local regional models and the next generation of attenuation (NGA) equations supplied the ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) that have been used. A logic-tree approach is applied to depict the epistemic uncertainty, or the uncertainty in the evaluation caused by the lack of knowledge about the model used. Expert judgment associated with the available acceleration recorded data was used to evaluate the weights assigned to each of the distinct GMPEs. In the final stage, the study offers estimated ground-motion parameters for soil classes B, B/C and C (National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program) with return periods of 475 and 975 years. Along with uniform hazards spectra for the examined soil conditions and return periods, seismic hazard curves for the main cities are also included. Among the computed ground-motion characteristics, the mean horizontal peak ground acceleration values for the B/C soil types in Setif have been estimated to be 0.30 ± 0.05 g and 0.44 ± 0.05 g for the two considered return periods (475 and 975 years), respectively. Using the exceedance and occurrence deaggregation methodologies, for some locations, a deaggregation investigation was also performed in terms of three parameters (magnitude, distance and azimuth) in order to look at how specific sources influenced the hazard level. This has made it possible to identify the earthquake that contributes most in terms of the considered parameters in the specified locations, known as the \"control\" or \"modal\" earthquake.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 2","pages":"439 - 471"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638397","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the Utility of Ensemble Rainfall Forecasts Over River Basins in India","authors":"Anumeha Dube,&nbsp;Raghavendra Ashrit","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03682-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03682-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Rivers form a lifeline for the agriculture based economy in India, but recent heavy rainfall events have caused major floods in the rivers resulting in loss of life and property. In order to accurately forecast the stream flow from the rivers firstly, an accurate forecast of rainfall over the river basins (RB) is required. Until recently, for operational flood forecasting in India, rainfall forecasts from deterministic models were used. Deterministic models often result in incorrect forecasts as they do not contain the uncertainty information. Ensemble prediction systems (EPS) sample this uncertainty and can add value to the deterministic forecasts. This study seeks to address the question ‘<i>whether the ensemble rainfall forecasts over RBs in India are ready for hydrological applications?</i>’ In order to answer this and generate more confidence in using probabilistic rainfall forecasts from an EPS for hydrological purposes the accuracy of the forecasts has to be established. For this purpose, we have carried out an in-depth verification of the probabilistic rainfall forecasts obtained from the NCMRWF EPS (NEPS) over 8 major RBs of India during the southwest monsoon (SWM) seasons of 2018 to 2021. The basin averaged rainfall forecasts from NEPS and observations from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) are used in this study. It was seen from the study that the model possesses good skill in predicting low to moderate rainfall over Himalayan Rivers like Ganga and peninsular rivers like Tapi, Narmada, Cauvery, and Krishna. This is seen in terms of a low Brier Score (BS), high Brier Skill Score (BSS) and low Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), as well as lower RMSE in the ensemble mean. The skill of the model is further confirmed by comparing the RMSE in the mean with the spread in the members. The best match between the RMSE in ensemble mean and spread is seen for Ganga RB. The Relative Economic Value (REV) determines the economic value of forecasts and it shows that over Ganga, Mahanadi, and Narmada the rainfall forecasts show the maximum economic value. However, the model shows relatively poorer skill in predicting rainfall over the Brahmaputra RB located in northeastern India. From this study it can be concluded that NEPS model has reasonably good skill in predicting rainfall over RBs in northern and peninsular parts of India and it would be beneficial to use these forecasts for forecasting floods.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 2","pages":"775 - 796"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantitative Risk Assessment of a Tsunami Induced by the Averroes Fault (Alboran Sea): Case of Martil City, the Mediterranean Coast of Morocco","authors":"Mohamed Outiskt,&nbsp;Abdelkarim Tadibaght,&nbsp;Kamal Agharroud,&nbsp;Maria Ana Baptista,&nbsp;Pinto Ramos João Francisco,&nbsp;Soufiane Tichli,&nbsp;Khadija Aboumaria","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03681-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03681-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Mediterranean coast of Morocco is potentially exposed to tsunamis, such as the one triggered by the Algerian Djijelli earthquake in 1856, also known as the most destructive event in the region. This type of coastal hazard could have disastrous effects on several cities along the Mediterranean coast, such as Martil, which is located near the main sources of tsunamis in the Alboran Sea and receives large numbers of national and international tourists each year. This work intends to simulate the potential tsunami of Averroes faults, corresponding to a magnitude Mw = 7.0 earthquake and to estimate the property and life losses. We used the Nonlinear Shallow Water with Nested Grids (NSWING) code integrated into Mirone software to simulate the tsunami phenomenon, combining a series of bathymetric and topographic grid layers with an initial water elevation generated using Mansinha formulations and assuming instantaneous seabed motion. For this investigation, we considered a scenario associated with a potential seismic source for the Averroes fault located in the Alboran Sea. The simulation results obtained reveal that the maximum water height at the regional scale of the Alboran Sea exceeds 1 m. On the other hand, on a local scale in the study area of the Martil city, the flow depth varies between 0.5 and 7 m, with a flooded surface area of 70 km². In addition, the arrival time of the first tsunami waves exceeds 40 min. Material losses could reach 3.72 M$, while the loss of life could be as high as 31,000 victims. The results should be useful to policymakers in developing tsunami protection and raising coastal community awareness of tsunami risks in Morocco.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 2","pages":"311 - 331"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flow-by-Flow Paleofield and Virtual Dipole Moment Analysis in the Mandla Lobe, Eastern Deccan Volcanic Province","authors":"Bhuvan K. Tamta,&nbsp;Vamdev Pathak,&nbsp;J. P. Shrivastava,&nbsp;Arun Kumar Gupta,&nbsp;Girish Ch. Kothyari","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03679-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03679-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Understanding Earth’s geodynamo processes is challenging due to limited data and the inaccessibility of Earth’s deep interior. Investigations of the Virtual Dipole Moment (VDM) and magnetic field intensity (paleofield) from continental flood basalts, such as the Deccan Volcanic Province (DVP), serve as valuable proxies for understanding past magnetic field behavior and core-mantle boundary (CMB) interactions. This study presents the first attempt to determine flow-by-flow paleofield and VDM analysis through progressive AF and thermal demagnetization of 36 distinct lava flows from the Mandla lobe, eastern DVP. Reliable mean VDM and paleofield values were calculated based on specimens that met reliability criteria and were globally correlated with the PINT database. The mean VDM value obtained from the eastern DVP is 1.58 ± 0.43 × 10²² Am², which aligns with VDM values reported from the Koyna region, western DVP, indicating a persistently weak Earth’s magnetic field across the DVP. The lowest VDM value of 0.62 ± 0.19 × 10²² Am², obtained from eight physically distinct lava flows of intermediate polarity, suggests these flows erupted during periods of weak Earth’s magnetic field, implying non-sudden polarity reversals.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 2","pages":"571 - 586"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal Diffusion Variability of Injection-Induced Seismicity in Enhanced Geothermal Systems","authors":"Georgios Michas","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03680-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03680-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Injection-induced seismicity represents a major challenge for the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). To effectively mitigate the associated seismic hazard, a better understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution of induced seismicity and its efficient modeling are required. Towards that end, a stochastic framework within the continuous time random walk (CTRW) theory is used to make inferences regarding the diffusion properties of injection-induced seismicity in three cases of hydraulic stimulations in EGS. The analysis of seismicity within the CTRW context indicates multi-scaling variations in the waiting times distributions and in the evolution of the mean squared distance of seismicity with time, both associated with the co- and post-injection periods, respectively. During fluid-injections, an almost Poissonian waiting times distribution is followed by broad distributions during post-injection, enhancing long-term clustering effects and inter-earthquake interactions. At the same time, the rate of triggered earthquake diffusion drastically drops during the post-injection period for all the studied cases. Such properties may have implications on the main driving mechanisms of injection-induced seismicity in EGS, highlighting the transition from a dominant pressure-driven triggering mechanism during fluid-injections, to a mixed mechanism after termination of injections, where stress transfer effects and inter-earthquake interactions become more important.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 2","pages":"405 - 417"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00024-025-03680-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rupture Kinematics of the 2021 Miyagi-Oki Earthquakes: Repeated Seismic Events in High-Velocity Bodies of the Japan Trench Subduction Zone","authors":"Jiaqi Qian,&nbsp;Wenbo Zhang,&nbsp;Ao Zheng","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03673-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03673-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The 2021 Miyagi-Oki earthquakes (<i>M</i>_w 7.1 and <i>M</i>_w 6.8) occurred in rapid succession within the Japan Trench subduction zone, one of the most seismically active regions globally. To investigate the rupture processes and interactions between these events, we performed the joint inversions of strong-motion and teleseismic waveforms. The inversion results for the <i>M</i>_w 7.1 Miyagi-Oki earthquake reveal a bilateral rupture along a megathrust fault. A large asperity in the southern section of the seismogenic fault extends from deep portions to the top edge, with a maximum slip of 1.4 m. In contrast, the <i>M</i>_w 6.8 Miyagi-Oki earthquake exhibits a unilateral rupture with a peak slip of about 1.1 m. Aftershocks following both earthquakes generally occurred at shallower depths than the initial rupture, likely influenced by focal depth, fault geometry, and fluid migration. The recurrence of earthquakes in the Miyagi-Oki region reflects the periodic release of accumulated strain on high-velocity bodies due to interseismic locking and stress loading from nearby large earthquakes. Coulomb stress analysis suggests that the 2021 <i>M</i>_w 7.1 Fukushima-Oki earthquake may have triggered the subsequent 2021 <i>M</i>_w 7.1 Miyagi-Oki earthquake, with both events contributing to the <i>M</i>_w 6.8 Miyagi-Oki earthquake. These findings enhance our understanding of earthquake triggering mechanisms and provide key insights into future seismic hazards in the Japan Trench subduction zone.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 2","pages":"333 - 346"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}