Prediction of Future Drought Characteristics Over the Southwest Turkey Using CMIP6 Models

IF 1.9 4区地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2025-07-06 DOI:10.1007/s00024-025-03757-4

Erhan Şener, Ayşen Davraz

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Abstract

The impacts of climate change on precipitation and drought are of great importance for agriculture, water resources and ecosystems. The CMIP6 models developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) within the scope of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulate future climate conditions under various climate scenarios and provide a better understanding of possible changes at regional and global levels. In this study, 4 different CMIP6 models, namely CANESM5, EC-EARTH3, MIROC6 and MRI-ESM2, were used to model future precipitation and temperature data in Isparta region located in the Lakes Region. Six different optimistic and pessimistic Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, namely SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5, were considered in the modelling phase. In the projections made until 2100, it is predicted that in optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, temperature increases may reach up to 2.84 °C, 3.3 °C, 4.06 °C, 5.18 °C, 4.77 °C and 5.78 °C, respectively, and precipitation may decrease by approximately 14.9%. In addition, the results obtained from drought analyses using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) show that the severity and duration of current droughts will increase significantly in the future due to decreases in precipitation and increases in temperatures in the coming years. In Isparta, which is located in the Lakes Region, a region vulnerable to drought, it is very important to develop drought management strategies in order to minimize the effects of severe droughts that may occur in the future.

Graphical abstract

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利用CMIP6模式预测土耳其西南部未来干旱特征

气候变化对降水和干旱的影响对农业、水资源和生态系统具有重要意义。由政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）在耦合模式比对项目（CMIP6）第6阶段范围内开发的CMIP6模式模拟了不同气候情景下的未来气候条件，并提供了对区域和全球水平可能变化的更好理解。本研究利用CANESM5、EC-EARTH3、MIROC6和MRI-ESM2 4种不同的CMIP6模式对位于湖区的Isparta地区的未来降水和温度数据进行了模拟。在建模阶段，考虑了6种不同的乐观和悲观的共享社会经济路径（SSP）情景，即SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP4-6.0和SSP5-8.5。在2100年之前的预估中，预测在乐观和悲观情景下，温度升高可能分别达到2.84℃、3.3℃、4.06℃、5.18℃、4.77℃和5.78℃，降水可能减少约14.9%。此外，利用标准化降水指数（SPI）进行干旱分析的结果表明，由于未来几年降水减少和气温升高，当前干旱的严重程度和持续时间将显著增加。在易受干旱影响的湖区的伊斯帕塔，制定干旱管理战略以尽量减少未来可能发生的严重干旱的影响是非常重要的。图形抽象

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来源期刊

pure and applied geophysics 地学-地球化学与地球物理

CiteScore

4.20

自引率

5.00%

发文量

240

审稿时长

9.8 months

期刊介绍： pure and applied geophysics (pageoph), a continuation of the journal "Geofisica pura e applicata", publishes original scientific contributions in the fields of solid Earth, atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Regular and special issues feature thought-provoking reports on active areas of current research and state-of-the-art surveys. Long running journal, founded in 1939 as Geofisica pura e applicata Publishes peer-reviewed original scientific contributions and state-of-the-art surveys in solid earth and atmospheric sciences Features thought-provoking reports on active areas of current research and is a major source for publications on tsunami research Coverage extends to research topics in oceanic sciences See Instructions for Authors on the right hand side.