PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Art in Times of Crisis","authors":"Géraldine David, Yuexin Li, K. Oosterlinck, L. Renneboog","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3929327","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3929327","url":null,"abstract":"Art is often presented as an investment of last resort or a potential safe haven in times of political or financial distress. Yet, as no study has focused on the performance of art markets in times of crisis, this paper fills this gap by means of unclosing historical auction archives. We trace the long-term performance of the UK art market, which we relate to periods of crisis such as the World Wars, economic recessions, inflationary periods, and changes in monetary policy. By constructing an art price index from 1908 to 2016, we show that the value of British art expanded more than seven-fold over this century. We classify crises into economic & financial crises, systemic ones, and war periods. The results show that art outperformed equities and other financial assets in war times, which implies that it could serve as a hedge against political uncertainties. However, in times of economic and financial crises the art market underperformed the equity market. We also detail changes in art preferences for specific paintings’ sizes, art schools, art objects’ liquidity, art (price) segments, and art(ist)’s nationality across crises.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78458233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing and Predicting Stress Events: The Case of Turkey","authors":"Yusuf Yildirim","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3921773","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3921773","url":null,"abstract":"After seeing the effect of the global crisis on the financial and real sectors, the studies have been more focused on building stress indices that show the accumulation of stress levels in the countries` financial system due to the external and internal shocks. This paper aims at creating three stress indices (real economy, financial institutions, and financial markets) that capture the correct stress level at a respective time period. For doing this, I use the equal variance weighting method, principal component method, and portfolio theory method, namely, composite indicator of systemic stress which are the most widely utilized methods in the financial stress literature. After building three indices, I utilize the discrete choice methods which are probit and logit models to predict systemic financial crises in financial markets by combining 16 daily published stress indicators in financial markets.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82401001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic Crisis in Sri Lanka Due to the COVID-19 Epidemic","authors":"A. De Silva","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3912467","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3912467","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the worst epidemics in resent history. Many countries around the world are currently affected by the epidemic and Sri Lanka is just another country suffering from the epidemic.The epidemic is affecting the economy in many ways. It focuses on how the COVID-19 epidemic has affected Sri Lanka’s economy, employment, GDP, tourism and poverty. Further, steps must be taken to control the spread of the epidemic and restore the economy. Or it may take years for the economy to recover.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83341312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Financial crises and income inequality","authors":"Thanh Cong Nguyen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3879483","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3879483","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the effects of financial crises on income inequality using a panel of 128 countries over the period 1960-2019. We focus on different types of financial crises: banking, currency, debt, and twin and triple crises. Our results show that any type of financial crisis results in a larger income gap between the rich and the poor. It is noteworthy that while little attention has been given to debt and twin and triple crises, they are associated with higher income inequality than banking and currency crises. Nevertheless, currency, debt, and twin and triple crises do not significantly relate to income inequality in developed countries.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90975468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A New Comprehensive Database of Financial Crisis: Identification, Frequency and Duration","authors":"Thanh Cong Nguyen, Vítor Castro, Justine Wood","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3830333","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3830333","url":null,"abstract":"This paper introduces a new database of financial crises, providing an important insight into the causes, duration, and consequences of different types of financial crises. Besides extending the systemic banking crises database by Laeven and Valencia (2020) to the period 1970–2019, we develop new approaches for the identification of currency and sovereign debt crises, which we regard preferable in some respects to those in the literature. Covering 206 countries, our crises database draws on 151 systemic banking crises (1970-2019), 414 currency crises (1950-2019), 200 sovereign debt crises (1960-2019), 75 twin crises (1970-2019), and 21 triple crises (1970-2019). We provide evidence that banking and debt crises tend to coincide or precede currency crises, while debt crises and banking crises are less likely to coincide or precede each other. We also find that advanced countries experienced longer banking crises but shorter currency, debt, twin, and triple crises.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82795188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Toward A Central Bank Collateral Framework for ABMI","authors":"Gongpil Choi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3809426","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3809426","url":null,"abstract":"The post-global financial crisis highlighted the importance of engaging in collateralized securities financing to meet the ever-increasing market needs for liquidity and risk management. Given the heavy reliance on volatile Eurodollar system and the fragmented governance and limited cross-border usability of the collateral among ASEAN+3 countries, it is important to relax prevailing constraints on collateral and mobilize cross-border transactions. To address the imperatives for securing collateral-based cross-border financial markets in the region, Asia needs the initiatives of central banks to develop a regional collateral framework for better financial plumbing. By collaborating on common grounds for cross-border collateral utilization, some of the prevailing constraints on collateral use can be relaxed. The inclusive collateral framework that incorporates CBCA (Central Bank Collateral Arrangement) would provide strong initial market support for the ABMI, thus help achieve sustainable financial stability.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88114649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How Did the Asset Markets Change after the Global Financial Crisis?","authors":"C. Leung, Kuang-Liang Chang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3825264","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3825264","url":null,"abstract":"The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) changes the relative economic riskiness and risk-adjusted-performance of different asset markets. While the empirical distribution for stock return shifted to the right and became more concentrated around the mean after the GFC, the real estate market counterparts moved to the left and became more spread out. The economic risk of the OFHEO and Case-Shiller housing indices was smaller than the counterpart of the equity REIT (EREITs) market before the financial crisis, it substantially increased. Also, the economic performance of the OFHEO and Case-Shiller housing indices decreased after the financial crisis. They are below the performance indices of the stock and EREITs markets. The ex-post real estate premium vanishes. If we presume the \"best model\" to be the same before and after the GFC, we could severely misestimate the risk after the GFC.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79945736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Contingency Public Funds for Emergencies: The Lessons from the International Experience","authors":"Julia Brunet, Lucía Cuadro Sáez, Javier J. Pérez","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3779998","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3779998","url":null,"abstract":"Should societies (governments) save during economic expansions in order to cover the costs of extraordinary situations, such as natural or biological catastrophes or, more generally, economic crises? This question has been raised once again by the economic and social crisis linked to the confinement measures implemented to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and the enormous public spending required to mitigate its impact. There are two general approaches in the economic literature to this debate, which are not mutually exclusive. First, the more standard approach indicates that governments, in these situations, should resort to borrowing. This allows the impact of shocks to be smoothed over time, as long as governments are sufficiently disciplined to rebuild the necessary room for manoeuvre during upswings. However, the evidence available shows that debt tends to decline only very gradually in post-crisis periods. Under the second approach, governments build up contingency funds or rainy-day funds during economic booms. International experience has numerous examples of national and regional funds of this type. This paper reviews the experience of such funds, with a view to drawing lessons as to their potential usefulness as an instrument of support in crisis situations and fiscal emergencies. Although the international evidence on their use is highly heterogeneous, it shows that when these funds are appropriately structured and sufficiently large they contribute to mitigating the impact of shocks and improving fiscal discipline.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76597625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"글로벌 금융위기 이후 중국의 지역경제구도 변화와 내수시장 진출 전략 (Changes in China's Regional Economic Structure and Strategies to Enter the Domestic Market after the Global Financial Crisis)","authors":"Jihyun Jung, Won-Seok Choi, Hongwon Kim, Joohye Kim","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3911684","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3911684","url":null,"abstract":"English Abstract: The growth of the Chinese domestic market, in terms of final domestic demand, is an important factor influencing Korea's economic growth. With the progress of so-called “servicification” in the Chinese economy, the influence of Chinese domestic growth on Korean economic growth has decreased to some extent, but the Chinese domestic market still remains important to Korea. On the other hand, as the conflict between the United States and China intensifies in various fields, it has become difficult for Korea to openly publicize strategic economic cooperation or cooperation projects with China as before, as it must balance its traditional focus on the US from a security standpoint and on China in economic aspects. In particular, the Biden administration will further systematize anti-China solidarity centered on allies, and in response to this, China's willingness to cooperate with neighboring countries is expected to grow. In the meantime, there is a concern that the scope of Korea's operations in the area of foreign cooperation will further narrow. In this situation, Korea needs to promote economic cooperation with China, centered on regional cooperation, that can minimize the impact of unstable global governance. This is because it will be possible to promote cooperation at each regional level even in the midst of the US-China conflict, and this form of cooperation is much more flexible and practically accessible than cooperation between countries. Companies and associations in the US and Japan are maintaining and expanding cooperation with local governments, including participation in Chinese local government projects, even in the face of poor relations between their countries and China. Deciding that the conflict with the US would be prolonged regardless of the results of the US presidential election, in October 2020 China proposed the strategy of “Dual Circulation” as a key economic policy direction up to 2035. This is a mid- to long-term strategy to increase economic independence by expanding the industrial and supply chains in the region and improving the efficiency of economic cycles in the face of increasing external uncertainty. As China is emphasizing the elimination of inefficiencies in domestic demand during the period of the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP), when the Dual Circulation strategy will be implemented in earnest, China's regional economic and industrial cooperation is expected to become more active than before. Accordingly, participation in the domestic market through expanding economic cooperation with the Chinese region will become more important. As such, although the development of China's domestic market is expected to intensify and our demand for cooperation in the regional domestic market is expected to further expand, most of the existing studies on the Chinese domestic market mainly analyze the consumption and import markets. Recognizing this gap, this study expanded the scope of analysis of the dom","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73059069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Credit Frictions in the Great Recession","authors":"P. Kehoe, Pierlauro Lopez, Virgiliu Midrigin, E. Pastorino","doi":"10.21034/sr.617","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.617","url":null,"abstract":"Although a credit tightening is commonly recognized as a key determinant of the Great Recession, to date, it is unclear whether a worsening of credit conditions faced by households or by firms was most responsible for the downturn. Some studies have suggested that the household-side credit channel is quantitatively the most important one. Many others contend that the firm-side channel played a crucial role. We propose a model in which both channels are present and explicitly formalized. Our analysis indicates that the household-side credit channel is quantitatively more relevant than the firm-side credit channel. We then evaluate the relative benefits of a fixed-sized transfer to households and to firms that improves each group's access to credit. We find that the effects of such a transfer on employment are substantially larger when the transfer targets households rather than firms. Hence, we provide theoretical and quantitative support to the view that the employment decline during the Great Recession would have been less severe if instead of focusing on easing firms' access to credit, the government had expended an equal amount of resources to alleviate households' credit constraints.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87389204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}